Official Ottawa Senators Thread
- Thread starter Madferret
- Start date
Heroic Shrimp
Active member
Nik the Trik said:
Well, that may be only 12th among forwards on Ottawa, but it's still 11 times as much as Chris Neil.
Heroic Shrimp
Active member
Madferret said:
Well, stop doing it, please.
bustaheims
Active member
Nik the Trik said:
As useless statistics go, that is one of them. ;D
bustaheims said:
C'mon. When they're that disproportionate?
They have bias issues like this, right?
http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/6/6/fixing-the-nhls-wonky-hit-statistics
So when you apply corrections for those:
Kessel's total hits shifts a little downward
Ryan's total hits shifts a little less downward
and the difference between the two INCREASES (worse for Kessel) a "staggering" .. wait for it ... 3.5%
OMG!!! Can you believe the inaccuracy ??? Stop the presses! Hitting stats can't be believed because they're slightly biased ... until you correct them slightly.
Kessel made one of his very rare hits tonight:
http://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreports/20142015/PL021070.HTM
- line 177 recorded it and it made it into the game stats
Ryan has been credited with as many hits nearly every season as Kessel has been credited for in his entire NHL career. Are we so infatuated with proving statistics are not absolutely precise to four decimal places that we can't be reasonable enough to use our heads a wee bit to line up with what we see on the ice - when it's a landslide?
As Ballard said about Hammerstrom, Kessel "could go into the corner with a dozen eggs in his pocket and not break any of them." I guess I'd add for this season "if Kessel didn't quit on making the effort to skate into a corner because he wasn't in the mood" In fact, Kessel makes Hammerstrom look like a physical player.
I don't think you can say the same about Ryan. Ryan will physically battle and hit guys. Phil is soft as butter.
Bobby Ryan puts Kennedy into bench
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fvg8ixjxsVs
Ryan Huge Hit on MTL Alex Galchenyuk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FgHniixSw7w
Ryan Annihilates Oscar M?ller
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rq4Zkdn6RJQ
Ryan Ferocious Hit on Marian Hossa
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W3ED3tM7DHM
There's all kinds of videos like that on Bobby Ryan. But like the NHL hitting stats, I can't find such a collection like that on hits by Phil. Even Youtube roughly substantiates the NHL hitting stats.
As such, I don't think it's fair to merely compare their scoring numbers because Ryan brings a physical element to his game that Phil doesn't. And that physical element helps him win puck battles and be a more effective two way player. The hitting stats fairly quantify the discrepancy between the two because we're virtually into an order of magnitude in difference - not off a few hits here or there or a little 3.5% bias this way or that.
And I'd add I feel similarly about the +/- stat. It's far from a perfect stat. But when you're at the bottom of the rung like that line is, it's hard to point the finger at everyone else and say it's all someone else's fault. If you want to have a better +/- stat, making a little effort isn't a bad place to start. That stat seems to show what can happen when a line stops making an effort - it gets lit up - which you'd expect in a stat like that under the circumstances of poor effort. In comparison to Ryan, that's another striking difference between the two players.
bustaheims
Active member
cw said:
Yes, even when they're that disproportionate, because they tell you absolutely nothing about a player's effectiveness. All they tell you is whether or not they do things that the in house statistician considers to be a hit. It's garbage in, garbage out. Being willing to throw a hit says nothing about your ability to actually win puck battles or anything else. It just shows that you're willing to throw a hit when your team doesn't have the puck. Full stop.
Madferret said:
5-3 final.
Remaining schedule:
Ottawa, 11 games
6 home, 5 road
6 against playoff teams, 5 against non playoff teams (2 against weak team, Toronto)
Boston, 9 games
4 home, 5 road
5 against playoff teams, 4 against non playoff teams (only 1 weak team - Carolina)
Sens (Hamburglar), with a couple of more potential byes coming up against the Leafs, really control their own destiny now.
A little over a month ago, Feb 16th
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Atlantic/Ottawa_ChanceWillMakePlayoffs.html
when they lost to Carolina, they had a 4.24% chance of making the playoffs (season low of 2% on Feb 7th, loss to Columbus).
Today, they have a 65.6% chance of making the playoffs.
Boston had an 86% chance of making the playoffs 8 days ago (Mar 14th when they beat Pittsburgh). With the TBay loss, their chances have fallen to 38.8%
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Atlantic/Boston_ChanceWillMakePlayoffs.html
An incredible turn in fortunes for a team that went 5-3-2 over their last 10 games.
At the end of January, the Leafs still had a 4% chance of making the playoffs
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Atlantic/Toronto_ChanceWillMakePlayoffs.html
though in reality, when your top player quits, you have no chance
Maybe someone can tweet this to Phil as a lesson on what can happen sometimes when you don't quit. Of course our chances of getting through to him are less than his last four NHL coaches ...
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Atlantic/Ottawa_ChanceWillMakePlayoffs.html
when they lost to Carolina, they had a 4.24% chance of making the playoffs (season low of 2% on Feb 7th, loss to Columbus).
Today, they have a 65.6% chance of making the playoffs.
Boston had an 86% chance of making the playoffs 8 days ago (Mar 14th when they beat Pittsburgh). With the TBay loss, their chances have fallen to 38.8%
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Atlantic/Boston_ChanceWillMakePlayoffs.html
An incredible turn in fortunes for a team that went 5-3-2 over their last 10 games.
At the end of January, the Leafs still had a 4% chance of making the playoffs
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Atlantic/Toronto_ChanceWillMakePlayoffs.html
though in reality, when your top player quits, you have no chance
Maybe someone can tweet this to Phil as a lesson on what can happen sometimes when you don't quit. Of course our chances of getting through to him are less than his last four NHL coaches ...
bustaheims
Active member
cw said:
Time to find a new axe to grind, cw. This one is worn to the hilt.
Madferret
New member
A win over SJ tonight puts Sens in 8th by 1 pt over Boston with still a game in hand. The Sharks might not be having the greatest season by their standards but they still scare the hell out of me. You know Logan Couture is going to bring it in front of his fans and coaches from his 67s years. Stay home Killer!
L K said:
No it doesn't but 40 more goals would have given them a heck of a better shot at accomplishing something.
How well Bernier and Reimer have stopped pucks seems more dependent on their ability and skill and guys like Kessel floating - not their effort - as I think both have been trying. According to coach Horachek, he specifically cites Bernier as making an effort. So they are doing their best with the talent they've been blessed with and their effort is something they can control.
And that's the difference between them and Kessel. He isn't making the effort - which is something he and no one else can control.
If he'd scored 40 more, would they make the playoffs? Everything else remaining the same, no. But if he scored 40 more and backchecked effectively, they might make the playoffs or be close enough we might still be talking about it - maybe if Gibson had come up and played like Hammond - or maybe if his linemates stepped up with him. Whatever. They showed they could play .600+ hockey for 2.5 months. We'll never know.
There's no doubt that they were not a Cup contender so I'm not under any delusion. They were a bubble team capable of better hockey than we've seen over the last 40 games.
One thing is certain: when your top player won't make an effort, you won't win or accomplish anything as a team and it's usually a pretty ugly thing to watch.
For those defending this lack of effort or bothered by me complaining about it, answer this:
What good does that giving-up/lack-of-effort behavior do for:
- Leafs fans (I think it's a rip off and costs the team fans)
- Leafs players (I think it devalues them and costs the team talent assets)
- Leafs coaches (I think it devalues them and might scare other good candidates and players away)
- Leafs management (I think it devalues them and might scare other good candidates and players away)
- the Leafs franchise (I think behavior like this hurts the franchise I am a fan of )
and why should I just accept it and shut up?