Polak signed to PTO

[herman]

Thanks for the counterpoint, Coco. Carrick's discipline is definitely an issue. He and Dermott are both fiesty smaller tanky defensemen who've sort of developed that 'play bigger' mentality.

The feeling of safety, in a coach's eyes, is rarely a stats-related thing. I think Polak's in more for Borgman's development than anything, and Carrick just so happens to be the Josh Leivo on defense.

 

[Frank E]

https://theleafsnation.com/2017/12/05/is-roman-polak-safe/

Yeeeaaaah...

I'll preface this by saying I'd rather have Carrick in the lineup. 

First point they make is how "unsafe" he is based on the amount of penalties he takes.  Well, if you are choosing between Carrick and Polak guess what- Carrick has taken more penalties in almost equivalent number of minutes over the past two years:

Carrick:  1226 mins 100 penalties taken
Polak:  1234 mins  94 penalties taken

Second they point to his advanced stats, focusing on shot rates against  (attempts, unblocked, on-net).  But they don't mention the fact that Babcock doesn't trust Carrick anywhere near as much as Polak defensively- 0.57 ZSR vs 0.47 ZSR (Zone-Start Ratio).  Where you start your shift can impact your rates against (NOT saying it is the reason why his rates are higher entirely- just a part of it)

Polak is still sitting at 50% shot-attempt share (Carrick is slightly below 50%) despite the less favourable zone starts. 
Anyways, I'm not advocating for Polak over Carrick, just pointing some stuff out here.

Good points, thanks for that. 

 

[Coco-puffs]

I hadn't thought of it before this Polak is "safe" thing came up as did Babcock trusting certain guys over others so I figured why not look at Home/Away splits to see how Babcock uses these guys.  For example, on the road, where Babock doesn't have last change how does he use his 3rd pair and what does that tell us about his trust in them.  At home, where Babcock can be sure he's putting them out against weaker competition, does it change?

What I found was pretty revealing in how much Babcock trust these guys:

On the road, Borgman and Carrick both have ZSR that are +20% relative to their teammates.  Polak sits at +4%, so its not like he trusts Polak more than the Top 4 either (Gardsev is ~ -2%, Reinsey is ~ -13%) but that's a significant difference.  He avoids the Borgman/Carrick pairing like the plague if the faceoff is in the defensive zone and he doesn't have last change! 

At home, Carrick has ZSR that is +10.5% relative to teammates.  Borgman sits at +5.5, while Polak is a whopping -17.8%.  So at home, where Babcock can control the matchup, he still shelters Carrick and Borgman.  Polak, on the other hand, gets his trust- or maybe he's just been on for that many faceoffs after an icing??? LOL.

Anyways, the results of all of this (small sample size alerts!!!):

Carrick and Polak have almost identical CA/60 at home (around 57.9).  That is despite Polak having been on the ice for defensive zone faceoffs a heck of a lot more.  Interestingly, Polak has better shot generation numbers (58.9 vs 47.4 CF/60) despite heavy defensive zone starts.

On the road, Carrick sits at 49 CA/60 while Polak sits at 69 CA/60.  Sheltering Carrick on the road is likely really helping his numbers against.  Polak, on the other hand, is getting EXPOSED- I wonder how much the opposing coach is targetting Polak with his better lines- we saw what happened when he was on the ice against McDavid! 

Who knows, maybe those 5 road games that Polak was a part of were high event, because he's got shot generation numbers that lead the team on the road:  68 CF/60.  Meanwhile, Carrick has the lowest shot generation numbers (just slightly) on the road at 55.3 CF/60 despite heavy offensive zone faceoff usage. 

(IIRC, Polak's 5 road games consist of this western canada swing and two of the three games against the Ducks-Kings-SJ??? )