Randy Carlyle/Leaf Coach thread

[Arn]

Well that's Maurice out of the equation

 

[Highlander]

I didnt realise his record was so good with the Leafs with such a questionable team. We should have hired him, a great communicator. Anyway its going to be a Devil of a day.

 

[Sudafederov]

So if according to Nonis it is not Carlyle it implies the team is bad, or at least unable to buy what Carlyle is selling.

No. It's really just a standard statement. He's not going to say Randy's job is in trouble and then not fire him in short order. He can't very well say "Firing the coach is something we're considering right now" because it takes away whatever authority the coach may have. All it really means is that he's not firing Carlyle this weekend.

Make no mistake, though. The fact that Nonis is publicly addressing the situation means the clock over Carlyle's head is ticking.

Exactly. It's just one of the benchmarks, a box to be ticked off on the deathwatch list. Usually, that kind of statement buys you a month or two. In the case of the Leafs, they would probably make a move sooner than later.

 

[Tigger]

Is it really an outright benchmark or is it something Nonis kind of has to reply to if asked?

Also, for those that want a high draft pick, if you really believe Carlyle is to blame why stop now?

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Some more food for thought (or how that 11-12 Leafs team should have made the playoffs).  Leafs, with generally top 5-10 goaltending so far this season, have a GF/GA difference of -16.  When Wilson was fired, the Leafs GF/GA difference was -9 and they were receiving the 28th best team SV% in the league at .900.  Median in the league was a .910 SV%.  If the Leafs had simply league average goaltending in that season, they would have cut 20-21 goals off of their total GA and their GF/GA ratio would have left them around a +12 GF/GA and would have been better than half the playoff teams at that point. 

 

[bustaheims]

Is it really an outright benchmark or is it something Nonis kind of has to reply to if asked?

In this case, it doesn't appear as though he was asked. It was more of a statement he made without being prompted, and, when it happens like that, it tends to be an indicator that the opposite is true.

Also, for those that want a high draft pick, if you really believe Carlyle is to blame why stop now?

Well, let's be honest - we all know Carlyle isn't going to be fired in the next few days. By the time he is relieved of his duties as coach, the team will likely already be too far gone for them not to get a high draft pick. Combine that with what will likely be a trade deadline that sees a number of pieces shipped out for picks and prospects, and you have a team that's likely going to end up in a similar position regardless. At this point, firing Carlyle isn't about salvaging this season, but rather about creating a clean slate before the off-season and learning a little bit more about what the team has in the system, and how they could function in a system that is built towards maximizing their strengths rather than attempting to minimize their weaknesses.

 

[bustaheims]

Bruce Arthur identifies a lot of areas where Carlyle has been an issue. Steve Simmons defends Carlyle.

http://www.tsn.ca/videohub/?collection=72&show=273065

 

[Kin]

Is it really an outright benchmark or is it something Nonis kind of has to reply to if asked?

I don't think it makes much of a difference. If the question is out there then realistically the sort of pressures that would cause a GM to fire a coach mid-season exist regardless.

 

[Bender]

Bruce Arthur identifies a lot of areas where Carlyle has been an issue. Steve Simmons defends Carlyle.

http://www.tsn.ca/videohub/?collection=72&show=273065

Bruce Arthur makes so much sense. I can't believe Simmons even tries to defend Carlyle in all this. Everything he's done so far, with the exception of squeaking in last season, has been disastrous and/or stupid.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Michael Farber's first words: "He shouldn't be fired because he's been dependent on goaltending.." - what?

 

[mr grieves]

Ron Francis says nice things about Paul Maurice. Whether they mean Maurice will be able to turn things around for the Jets, they're the sort of thing you'd like to be said of an NHL coach:

"I think he's a very underrated coach," said Hall of Famer and former Carolina captain Ron Francis, who also worked as an assistant under Maurice. "He's a very bright guy, he's good at assessing the talent he has and then structuring the system that he believes will get the most out of the lineup that he has on a game-in, game-out basis."

[...]

"He's very bright, he's a good student of the game and he's watching what's happening and how things are evolving," Francis said. "He incorporates that into his game plan and his systems. There's no question he doesn't get stuck on one particular thing but more or less moves with the times."

I'll leave judging the relevance of the above to the Leaf coach thread to the moderators.

 

[bustaheims]

Some more food for thought (or how that 11-12 Leafs team should have made the playoffs).  Leafs, with generally top 5-10 goaltending so far this season, have a GF/GA difference of -16.  When Wilson was fired, the Leafs GF/GA difference was -9 and they were receiving the 28th best team SV% in the league at .900.  Median in the league was a .910 SV%.  If the Leafs had simply league average goaltending in that season, they would have cut 20-21 goals off of their total GA and their GF/GA ratio would have left them around a +12 GF/GA and would have been better than half the playoff teams at that point.

Taking out empty net goals, so you get the goalies' actual Sv% and, over the full season, with the Sv% the Leafs are getting this season, their goalies would have allowed 56 less goals in 11/12. Even if that doesn't translate into any other changes in their totals, they would have ended the season +25, good for 9th in the league. Ron Wilson was absolutely victimized by his goaltending.

 

[bustaheims]

Michael Farber's first words: "He shouldn't be fired because he's been dependent on goaltending.." - what?

Yeah, that was weird. He shouldn't be fired, but, here's a list of reasons why he probably should be.

 

[L K]

Michael Farber's first words: "He shouldn't be fired because he's been dependent on goaltending.." - what?

It made no sense.  Just a random statement.

 

[Sudafederov]

Thought this was interesting...

http://prohockeytalk.nbcsports.com/2010/11/02/ducks-gm-bob-murray-puts-blame-for-teams-lousy-start-on-players-not-coach-randy-carlyle/

"Anaheim allows a league-high 38.8 shots per game, a startling number that is three shots worse than the second worst team in the NHL (Atlanta at 35.6). You cannot blame effort or preparedness alone for those kind of numbers; it?s clear that the Ducks are just a mess in their own zone.

That?s the kind of thing that falls to the coach and general manager most of all, not subjective concepts such as effort or elbow grease."

 

[bustaheims]

Thought this was interesting...

http://prohockeytalk.nbcsports.com/2010/11/02/ducks-gm-bob-murray-puts-blame-for-teams-lousy-start-on-players-not-coach-randy-carlyle/

"Anaheim allows a league-high 38.8 shots per game, a startling number that is three shots worse than the second worst team in the NHL (Atlanta at 35.6). You cannot blame effort or preparedness alone for those kind of numbers; it?s clear that the Ducks are just a mess in their own zone.

That?s the kind of thing that falls to the coach and general manager most of all, not subjective concepts such as effort or elbow grease."

Sounds startlingly familiar, doesn't it?

 

[OldTimeHockey]

Unfortunately, this part of Carlyle's time in Anaheim isn't familiar:

 

[nutman]

Unfortunately, this part of Carlyle's time in Anaheim isn't familiar:

If I was him I would blow that pic up to poster size and have the dressing room plastered with them. I would have a copy printed on there under tees, as well as on the back of my coach jacket.

 

[Stickytape]

Thought this was interesting...

http://prohockeytalk.nbcsports.com/2010/11/02/ducks-gm-bob-murray-puts-blame-for-teams-lousy-start-on-players-not-coach-randy-carlyle/

"Anaheim allows a league-high 38.8 shots per game, a startling number that is three shots worse than the second worst team in the NHL (Atlanta at 35.6). You cannot blame effort or preparedness alone for those kind of numbers; it?s clear that the Ducks are just a mess in their own zone.

That?s the kind of thing that falls to the coach and general manager most of all, not subjective concepts such as effort or elbow grease."

Sounds startlingly familiar, doesn't it?

I went back to some old Anaheim forum threads from that era, too, right around when he was fired, and so much of it was familiar.  Carlyle seems to be a very, very rigid coach: when his style works, great, but if there's something wrong with it, it won't adapt, and just finds a scapegoat instead.

Unfortunately, this part of Carlyle's time in Anaheim isn't familiar:

If I was him I would blow that pic up to poster size and have the dressing room plastered with them. I would have a copy printed on there under tees, as well as on the back of my coach jacket.

I'd get everyone to kiss my ring, pope-style. lol

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Couple more articles today on how this was just a matter of time given the way the Leafs have been playing since last season:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capitals-insider/wp/2014/01/11/no-surprise-leafs-failing-to-live-up-to-expectations/

http://sports.nationalpost.com/2014/01/12/toronto-maple-leafs-collapse-should-come-as-no-surprise-based-on-the-numbers/