Series 41: Indians at Jays

[hockeyfan1]

How about that Donaldson slide/dive into home!?!? The guy is a gamer! Maybe not quite as dramatic as Kelly Gruber's chin busting belly flop slide into home but entertaining to say the least.

They just keep making it happen.

Yeah, that was an incredible slide by Donaldson to avoid
the tag.

"MVP!"

 

[draeko17]

How about that Donaldson slide/dive into home!?!? The guy is a gamer! Maybe not quite as dramatic as Kelly Gruber's chin busting belly flop slide into home but entertaining to say the least.

They just keep making it happen.

Yeah, that was an incredible slide by Donaldson to avoid
the tag.

"MVP!"

Really, it's getting quite difficult for this to be argued.  What a treat to watch this on the Jays.

 

[bustaheims]

Really, it's getting quite difficult for this to be argued.  What a treat to watch this on the Jays.

I don't think there is an argument anymore. His only real competition was Trout, and he took himself out of contention with the terrible August numbers he put up. For anyone to get back into the race, they'd basically have a September that singlehandedly puts their team into the playoffs.

 

[Kin]

I don't think there is an argument anymore. His only real competition was Trout, and he took himself out of contention with the terrible August numbers he put up. For anyone to get back into the race, they'd basically have a September that singlehandedly puts their team into the playoffs.

In terms of bWAR, the top 5 position players in the AL are:

Donaldson 7.6
Trout 7.5
Cain 6.6
Kiermaier 6.4
Machado 6.0

Fangraphs has it with Donaldson with a little more of an edge on Trout, 7.6 to 6.9, but I don't think the race is over just yet.

 

[Kin]

Really, it's getting quite difficult for this to be argued.

Trout has a higher OPS and OPS+ and plays a more important defensive position.

Trout's also doing it in a much less potent offense(which is why the runs scored/RBI totals are much lower). Donaldson's OPS is 59 points higher than the next highest on the team, 82 points than the third highest. Trout's OPS is 169 points higher than the #2 on his team, 206 points higher than the #3. The Jays would still have a pretty solid offense without Donaldson, the Angels would be one of the worst offenses in Baseball without Trout.

It's a close race but the pro-Trout argument is going to have some believers.

 

[Highlander]

Is that a Rainbow Trout, a Brown Trout or a Lake Trout?

 

[dappleganger]

If you want to know who is going to win the MVP look at 2011. Jose Bautista lead the AL in HR, BB, SLG%, OPS, OPS+, and had a batting average of .302 and led the AL in Offensive WAR. He came third for MVP.

If the Jays win the AL East and the Angels miss the playoffs, Donaldson is MVP.

 

[bustaheims]

In terms of bWAR, the top 5 position players in the AL are:

Donaldson 7.6
Trout 7.5
Cain 6.6
Kiermaier 6.4
Machado 6.0

Fangraphs has it with Donaldson with a little more of an edge on Trout, 7.6 to 6.9, but I don't think the race is over just yet.

Sure, but MVPs don't have Augusts like Trout did when their team is fighting to hold on to a playoff spot. That might not mean much to some people, but stuff like that still means a lot for the people that vote for these things. He's still going to have very good numbers at the end of the year, but he didn't have the level of consistency voters generally look for.

 

[Kin]

If you want to know who is going to win the MVP look at 2011. Jose Bautista lead the AL in HR, BB, SLG%, OPS, OPS+, and had a batting average of .302 and led the AL in Offensive WAR. He came third for MVP.

bWAR for 2011:

Justin Verlander 8.4
Jacoby Ellsbury  8.1
Jose Bautista    8.1

MVP results for 2011:

Justin Verlander 1st
Jacoby Ellsbury  2nd
Jose Bautista    3rd

So it seems like straight WAR was a pretty good predictor there independent of team results.

 

[Kin]

Sure, but MVPs don't have Augusts like Trout did when their team is fighting to hold on to a playoff spot. That might not mean much to some people, but stuff like that still means a lot for the people that vote for these things. He's still going to have very good numbers at the end of the year, but he didn't have the level of consistency voters generally look for.

I only had to go back to 2013 to find an MVP having a lousy month at a crucial point of the season while his team was fighting for a playoff spot. I could keep going but I just don't think what you're saying is true. If Trout has a big September and the Angels make the playoffs anyway I don't think it'll matter much.

 

[draeko17]

Really, it's getting quite difficult for this to be argued.

Trout has a higher OPS and OPS+ and plays a more important defensive position.

Trout's also doing it in a much less potent offense(which is why the runs scored/RBI totals are much lower). Donaldson's OPS is 59 points higher than the next highest on the team, 82 points than the third highest. Trout's OPS is 169 points higher than the #2 on his team, 206 points higher than the #3. The Jays would still have a pretty solid offense without Donaldson, the Angels would be one of the worst offenses in Baseball without Trout.

It's a close race but the pro-Trout argument is going to have some believers.

Well, and there you go.  You present a good argument.  I wouldn't dispute any of that even if I was a stats kind of person because I don't watch enough of Trout to feel that strongly one way or another.  However, I'm pretty happy just to watch Donaldson play for the Jays.  Whether he wins the MVP or not, its so much fun to watch.  Every time he comes up the plate you almost expect him to make something happen.  And defensively, hhmmm, he's airmailed a few throws that may have cost some runs but he plays hard and is generally a part of the solution, not the problem.  Short story made long, it's easy to get caught up in the MVP chants, watching him play. 

 

[draeko17]

Really, it's getting quite difficult for this to be argued.  What a treat to watch this on the Jays.

I don't think there is an argument anymore. His only real competition was Trout, and he took himself out of contention with the terrible August numbers he put up. For anyone to get back into the race, they'd basically have a September that singlehandedly puts their team into the playoffs.

I guess we'll have to wait and see how it unfolds.  I wonder if the MVP chants provide extra fuel/energy to him.  I feel as though he has an extra gear right now.

 

[Kin]

Short story made long, it's easy to get caught up in the MVP chants, watching him play.

Sure. And both guys have excellent cases and, by default, when you're choosing between the two clear frontrunners for an MVP you're basically forced to nitpick between two excellent seasons.

Honestly, I think the thing that will probably work out best in Donaldson's favour is the fatigue voters will have with Trout as a MVP candidate. It's not fair, he should have three awards and has one, but people like to go with the most compelling narrative and right now that's with Donaldson.

 

[dappleganger]

If you want to know who is going to win the MVP look at 2011. Jose Bautista lead the AL in HR, BB, SLG%, OPS, OPS+, and had a batting average of .302 and led the AL in Offensive WAR. He came third for MVP.

bWAR for 2011:

Justin Verlander 8.4
Jacoby Ellsbury  8.1
Jose Bautista    8.1

MVP results for 2011:

Justin Verlander 1st
Jacoby Ellsbury  2nd
Jose Bautista    3rd

So it seems like straight WAR was a pretty good predictor there independent of team results.

You left out Ben Zobrist.

bWAR for 2011:

Ben Zobrist        8.7
Justin Verlander 8.4
Jacoby Ellsbury  8.1
Jose Bautista    8.1

MVP results for 2011:

Justin Verlander 1st
Jacoby Ellsbury  2nd
Jose Bautista    3rd
Ben Zobrist      16th

 

[Kin]

You left out Ben Zobrist.

True. Ben Zobrist's team made the playoffs though and despite leading the league in WAR he didn't get strong MVP support. Jose Bautista finished higher in the MVP voting than he did in WAR.

So what was your point?

 

[dappleganger]

You left out Ben Zobrist.

True. Ben Zobrist's team made the playoffs though and despite leading the league in WAR he didn't get strong MVP support. Jose Bautista finished higher in the MVP voting than he did in WAR.

So what was your point?

Donaldson is going to win MVP.

 

[Kin]

You left out Ben Zobrist.

True. Ben Zobrist's team made the playoffs though and despite leading the league in WAR he didn't get strong MVP support. Jose Bautista finished higher in the MVP voting than he did in WAR.

So what was your point?

Donaldson is going to win MVP.

He's certainly got as good a chance as anyone.