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Series 46: The Final Homestand - Red Sox @ Blue Jays

TML fan said:
Mmmhmmm....so it's works once and that's proof, but the 3 times it didn't work in the same timespan is...what?

I'm not trying to "prove" anything because it's not incumbent on me to prove a negative. My position is that using a reliever in that way is no different from using a reliever in any other way, sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't. All relievers occasionally get beat around regardless of how they're used. The fact that it sometimes works and sometimes doesn't means that, no, Gibbons isn't tacitly wrong to do it.

Unless you have evidence that it's more likely to not work then using a reliever in a typical fashion you can't even accuse Gibbons of engaging in anything that's remotely counter-intuitive. 
 
TML fan said:
Really? Andrew Miller? You have all those teams to choose from and you pick arguably the best closer in the game to make your point, and I'm the one who's not trying?

Sure, because now you're frantically backtracking in an attempt to make your point seem reasonable. It's not categorically stupid to use a reliever that way because lots of managers do use their relievers that way when they think it's a high enough leverage situation and their closer is good enough. Why would I compare Osuna, who's been lights out as a closer, to a mediocre or bad relief pitcher?

So is Andrew Miller immune from psychological factors? Or does it not matter if the pitcher is good enough? The Cardinals have used Rosenthal in a similar manner with largely similar results. Likewise the Cubs with Rondon. The Mets have used Familia 10 different times in that way, with only two of those resulting in a run being given up. The Pirates with Melancon too. What sort of as yet unmentioned threshold for being a good pitcher that Osuna doesn't meet makes Gibbons decision here so much worse than how most managers use elite closers?

Good teams with smart managers use their closers in the 8th inning in high leverage situations. Gibbons doing so doesn't put him at odds with conventional strategy or baseball wisdom.

You're just complaining for the sake of it. You don't have the flimsiest leg to stand on. "It didn't work, therefore it was bad strategy" is just armchair quarterbacking 101.
 
Maybe the reason Osuna has been lights out as a closer is because, for the most part, he has been used the way I think a closer should be.
 
The Jays still control the division and a good series against the Yankees solves all problems but that's two games in a row they handed to the Red Sox on a platter.  I have to admit that the "Toronto teams can't do anything" element is creeping into the back of my mind.  Must think positive.
 
TML fan said:
Maybe the reason Osuna has been lights out as a closer is because, for the most part, he has been used the way I think a closer should be.

"For the most part" or, in other words, he's been used that way except for when he hasn't.
 
A couple of tough losses but, well, the team isn't going to play .800 ball the rest of the way.
 
L K said:
The Jays still control the division and a good series against the Yankees solves all problems but that's two games in a row they handed to the Red Sox on a platter.  I have to admit that the "Toronto teams can't do anything" element is creeping into the back of my mind.  Must think positive.

Eh, I see it as a bit of baseball correcting.  They were on such a run of good fortunate, nobody making big mistakes at big times, etc that eventually they were going to happen again.
 
Nik the Trik said:
TML fan said:
Maybe the reason Osuna has been lights out as a closer is because, for the most part, he has been used the way I think a closer should be.

"For the most part" or, in other words, he's been used that way except for when he hasn't.

Which is infrequently.
 
TML fan said:
Which is infrequently.

High leverage situations in the 8th are infrequent. No closers are used that way frequently but, as I've shown you, the good ones are used in that situation effectively.
 
Nik the Trik said:
TML fan said:
Which is infrequently.

High leverage situations in the 8th are infrequent. No closers are used that way frequently but, as I've shown you, the good ones are used in that situation effectively.

Is 60% considered effective? Because Osuna is way better than that when he's not used in that situation.
 
Nik the Trik said:
TML fan said:
Is 60% considered effective?

Are entirely invented numbers considered meaningful?

The Jays are 3-2 when Osuna (in the closer's role) pitches more than 1 inning. Osuna is 16/18 when pitching the 9th only. That is pretty damn lights out. The former is not.
 
So, what's everyone's thoughts on Osuna pitching more than one inning? Does everyone agree that he should only be used in the 9th? Are there any stats that point in either direction?
 
TML fan said:
The Jays are 3-2 when Osuna (in the closer's role) pitches more than 1 inning.

Well, first of all, that's just not true.

Since being made the closer, Osuna has pitched in more than one inning seven times(8/19, 8/12, 7/2, 6/22, 6/5, 5/28, 5/22). The Blue Jays are 5-2 in those games.

But being as it's nonsensical to suggest that being made closer somehow meant that Osuna forgot how to sit on the bench and still be an effective pitcher, his season totals are more relevant. Prior to yesterday Osuna's been used in more than one inning 16 times, throwing a total of 23.2 innings. In those 23.2 innings, he'd given up three earned runs. That makes for a 1.14 ERA in those outings. Which is effective pitching.
 
Nik the Trik said:
TML fan said:
The Jays are 3-2 when Osuna (in the closer's role) pitches more than 1 inning.

Well, first of all, that's just not true.

Since being made the closer, Osuna has pitched in more than one inning seven times(8/19, 8/12, 7/2, 6/22, 6/5, 5/28, 5/22). The Blue Jays are 5-2 in those games.

But being as it's nonsensical to suggest that being made closer somehow meant that Osuna forgot how to sit on the bench and still be an effective pitcher, his season totals are more relevant. Prior to yesterday Osuna's been used in more than one inning 16 times, throwing a total of 23.2 innings. In those 23.2 innings, he'd given up three earned runs. That makes for a 1.14 ERA in those outings. Which is effective pitching.

Osuna wasn't made the closer until the end of June. A different role leads to a different mindset.

If Osuna doesn't have the expectation of pitching multiple innings, when he's called upon to do so, he will not be as well prepared to do it as he otherwise would have been.
 
TML fan said:
Osuna wasn't made the closer until the end of June. A different role leads to a different mindset.

He was closing games. The idea that a title fundamentally changes his approach to baseball is bogus. 

TML fan said:
If Osuna doesn't have the expectation of pitching multiple innings, when he's called upon to do so, he will not be as well prepared to do it as he otherwise would have been.

Which is why I'm sure that Gibbons, like all good managers, will tell his closer that he should ready himself to occasionally pitch more than one inning.
 
Nik the Trik said:
TML fan said:
Osuna wasn't made the closer until the end of June. A different role leads to a different mindset.

He was closing games. The idea that a title fundamentally changes his approach to baseball is bogus. 

TML fan said:
If Osuna doesn't have the expectation of pitching multiple innings, when he's called upon to do so, he will not be as well prepared to do it as he otherwise would have been.

Which is why I'm sure that Gibbons, like all good managers, will tell his closer that he should ready himself to occasionally pitch more than one inning.

He didn't even record a save until June 22. What games was he closing exactly? He pitched in the 9th inning TWICE in wins before recording his first save (which was before he was officially named the closer) and those were 7-1 and 6-2 scores.

When you tell a pitcher he is the closer, he is expecting to pitch the 9th inning. Of course he has to be ready to come in and pitch whenever he's asked, but how do you prepare to do something which, by your own admission, happens so infrequently? If you're preparing all the time to pitch any number of innings at any time, you're not the closer.
 
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