Crake said:
What about the other example? What is the difference between adding Stamkos and McDavid right now? Both potentially have the same impact on the Leafs draft position moving forward, and by the time the team is ready to compete both likely have similar cap hits, so if you think it's too early to add a player like Stamkos to the team why is McDavid different?
Well, for one, I would say that I'm roughly 95-99% certain that, barring injury, Connor McDavid is going to be elite, cup contender worthy #1 center five years from now. I don't know what percentage I'd put that with in Stamkos' case but I'd say it's roughly half that.
Two, I think McDavid is going to be better than Stamkos when the team is eventually competitive.
Three, I disagree with the notion that their cap hits will be similar when the Leafs are competitive. I'd guess McDavid's will be anywhere from 20-40% lower.
Fourth, if we assume that both guys will be legit #1 centers(and the Leafs can keep them) until they're 35, that would represent the team getting 9 such years from Stamkos, 17 from McDavid.
Fifth, I'm more confident in an 18 year old under team control's willingness to be patient with the process than I am a veteran whose salary could be a real problem if ends up unhappy.
So while I agree there's risk to both, I think the reward with McDavid is much, much higher.