Steve Stamkos?

[Kin]

Niedermayer was 2005 -- 11 years. Let's call it 12 so that would be 1 every 2 years.  There are 30 teams in the league.  You only need 1 place to be more desirable for the FA.  If they let decide not to go for the guy this year, they maybe have 2 more shots at that level guy over the next 2-5 years.  Nobody can calculate the probabilities on these things, but if those are the level of guy you want, it doesn't seem the chances are all that high. They arent zero either. It is a risk no matter what you do.

But there are other factors. For starters, the newer cap system where players aren't going to be taking artificially lowered cap hits on long-term deals probably means teams are going to be under more cap pressure which means you're probably going to see more and more good players find the free agent market. We can talk all we want about Stamkos clashing with Cooper or Stamkos wanting to be a Leaf but the reality is that Tampa can't really offer Stamkos a 10+ million dollar a year deal without then having to make some very hard choices about the future. That's a situation we're likely to see more, not less of in the future.

But also, and maybe more importantly, even if the odds aren't great for there being an elite free agent available(and this is again where I'll mention that those 6 are just the elite free agents who performed up to their contracts) there's really no evidence that one is necessary. Sure, some teams like the Ducks, Bruins and Blackhawks won with one but the Kings, Red Wings and Penguins didn't. Whoever wins the cup this year will do so without having signed a big-deal UFA. Adding big pieces through smart trades is just as valid a method of adding those final building blocks and teams like the Penguins, Sharks and Blues have added huge pieces to their team without breaking the bank and trading someone the calibre of a Marner or Nylander or even Kadri.

Honestly, I think people are making too much of that post of mine. It wasn't intended as a statement about the relative merits of UFA as a method of adding players, it was simply a response to the people acting as if elite free agents only find themselves on the free market once in a blue moon. That, in and of itself, is not a compelling argument for signing Stamkos.

 

[Kin]

I think I come down where prince is. All this discussion about where the team might be in x years is hypothetical. This July they may well be confronted with an actual opportunity to add a player who would undoubtedly make the team much better. You have to make decision about him at that time. I don't think you make it based primarily on largely imponderable future possible UFA choices.

Nobody is suggesting you do. What is being suggested is that in a few years time the team will have a better concept of what they need and what areas they need to address and therefore will be in a better position to acquire the sort of piece that will fit their vision of the team they're trying to construct, rather than adding that piece immediately and then trying to shape their existing talent around that player.

UFA, Trades, more high draft picks...all of those are potential methods for adding the kinds of pieces we all know the Leafs need in order to build a contending team regardless of whether or not they sign Stamkos. The argument is that by signing Stamkos to such a high percentage of the cap and then watching him improve the team over the next few years when they probably won't be any good anyway you're reducing the Leafs' flexibility to take advantage of those avenues.

 

[Kin]

Ryan Johansen for Seth Jones

Just to highlight this for a second though, for all the talk about how often a UFA like Stamkos comes along can we talk for a second about the relative rarity of a legit #1 defenseman being traded? The best examples you can really come up with are either situations where the #1 defenseman in question essentially wasn't playing defense at the time he was dealt(Byfuglien, Burns) or you're looking at a situation like the above deal where a big, legit #1 Center, the kind of guy teams get built around and that we're all excited about having the chance to draft next month, got traded for someone who might get to that status. Other than that it's all guys getting drafted by teams and staying with them forever and the very occasional UFA and if you look at the last decade of Stanley Cup winners you can just as easily make the case that a #1 defenseman who can make a legitimate claim to being one of the top 5 if not top 3 in the league is as if not more important to winning the cup than the equivalent #1 C is. Counting this year, every single one of the last 10 cup winners will have had one of Lidstrom, Pronger/Niedermayer, Letang, Keith, Doughty, Chara or Burns/Hedman/Pietrangelo. 

Now, it is fair to say that more of these #1 defensemen come from later on in the draft and you don't need to be right near the top to take one but if we'd all agree that right now it's not likely that Rielly becomes a player on that level then the Leafs are still looking for one and the idea that you can just peel off Marner or Nylander and deal them for one at your convenience is banking on a situation that's 10x more remote and hypothetical than waiting on Stamkos because a better or comparable UFA might be around the corner. The best place to find impact players like that is still near the top of the draft and since, again, the Leafs aren't actually in a rush they're better off taking as good a shot as they can at drafting someone like that over the next few years.

 

[jonlleafs]

I think I come down where prince is. All this discussion about where the team might be in x years is hypothetical. This July they may well be confronted with an actual opportunity to add a player who would undoubtedly make the team much better. You have to make decision about him at that time. I don't think you make it based primarily on largely imponderable future possible UFA choices.

To me the biggest question re Stamkos is whether you think he has peaked or not, which is certainly a possibility, and perhaps too his injury history.

Agreed.  Since he scored 60, he has had a downward trajectory in points.  Granted he's been injured but if you only look at this past season, it's way off from his highest totals.  Is he getting complacent?  Will a move to Toronto spark his interest again because Toronto is a new, major challenge?  Guys like him are super competitive.  You give him a difficult task (i.e. winning a Stanley Cup in Toronto), he will try his best to achieve it.  As far as physical attributes about him (not talking about injuries), he's still in his mid twenties and should be the best shape he can be in and he should be at his prime.  So, with all these factors, does he bounce back to be a 90+ point getter?  Hard to say without taking the risk in signing him.

 

[dappleganger]

From the article: "When asked if he has thought about the possibility this could have been his last game in a Lightning sweater, No. 91 quickly answered, "No.""

http://espn.go.com/nhl/story/_/id/15758227/nhl-2016-stanley-cup-playoffs-steven-stamkos-return-not-enough-tampa-bay-lightning

We shall see...

 

[bustaheims]

I honestly wonder how much the issues between him and Cooper may be being overstated, and how much he really wants to leave a team that's been in the Conference finals for two straight seasons (and 3 of the last 6) - and got there this year without him. It really wouldn't surprise me if he takes a look at the team, and thinks that, if he's healthy for the playoffs, do they get to the Finals with a legit chance? Are they just a couple tweaks away from being able win the Cup? And, is that something he's really willing to walk away from?

I honestly would not be surprised to see him sign an extension with the Lightning in the next few weeks.

 

[hockeyfan1]

From the article:

Brian Boyle said it best...

"Oh man, just from what I've seen in two years, the amount of stuff he does behind closed doors, and what you guys don't see, everything that he does for Tampa in general, what he's done for the players on this team, it can't really be expressed in a two-minute blurb," Boyle said. "It's good to see him. It's good to see him on the ice and good to see him feeling better. It stings that we couldn't pick him up. He played great and almost scored for us in the second. I was happy to be out there playing with him."

When asked if he could imagine what the Lightning organization would be like without No. 91, Boyle could only shake his head in disbelief.

"I'm trying to wrap my head around our season being over right now," Boyle said. "That's enough bad news for me. I'm confident and I'm hoping he's back. Everything kind of changes year to year with the group, and it's hard to keep everybody together. We did that last year to this year, and hopefully we can keep the group together. Again, it's an unbelievable group to be a part of, and I'm very fortunate and very blessed to be a part of this. The city that we play in, the people that we're around, the people in the organization -- everybody -- I couldn't ask for anything better.

"That's what makes this [loss] a lot harder, because you never know what's going to happen in the offseason. We have a special group, and it takes a special group to get as far as we did. It's tough right now, but I'm sure someday in the future I'll look back on this season, and last season, very, very fondly.

 

[LuncheonMeat]

From the article: "When asked if he has thought about the possibility this could have been his last game in a Lightning sweater, No. 91 quickly answered, "No.""

http://espn.go.com/nhl/story/_/id/15758227/nhl-2016-stanley-cup-playoffs-steven-stamkos-return-not-enough-tampa-bay-lightning

We shall see...

FWIW, he didn't say no to the idea that this was his last game with the lightning, he said no to the idea that he'd even thought about it. In the end, it'a meaningless statement.

 

[TBLeafer]

He'll be a Leaf, IMO.

 

[McGarnagle]

If I'm Tampa, I can't look at how they played without him in the lineup (and with his very modest output last playoffs) and say its worth jettisoning other players to pay him double digits long term. I think Stamkos is a closer comparable to Kessel than Crosby - a great complimentary player.

 

[TBLeafer]

If I'm Tampa, I can't look at how they played without him in the lineup (and with his very modest output last playoffs) and say its worth jettisoning other players to pay him double digits long term. I think Stamkos is a closer comparable to Kessel than Crosby - a great complimentary player.

I'd say it's more like Ovechkin than Crosby.

Stamkos is a whole tier of league elites higher than Kessel.  He's still a franchise player and a superstar.

 

[rdowdall]

If I'm Tampa, I can't look at how they played without him in the lineup (and with his very modest output last playoffs) and say its worth jettisoning other players to pay him double digits long term. I think Stamkos is a closer comparable to Kessel than Crosby - a great complimentary player.

When he is at his best,  Stamkos is probably in that group that is just below Crosby, Ovechkin, and perhaps McDavid.  The concern is probably that injuries have taken the toll on him to a certain degree and he can't perform at his best over the course of a season anymore. 

 

[Tigger]

The more I think about it the more I think a team like Washington or maybe the Islanders makes sense as a destination if Tampa can't sign him.

 

[Kin]

If I'm Tampa, I can't look at how they played without him in the lineup (and with his very modest output last playoffs) and say its worth jettisoning other players to pay him double digits long term. I think Stamkos is a closer comparable to Kessel than Crosby - a great complimentary player.

When he is at his best,  Stamkos is probably in that group that is just below Crosby, Ovechkin, and perhaps McDavid.  The concern is probably that injuries have taken the toll on him to a certain degree and he can't perform at his best over the course of a season anymore.

I also wonder if, like Kessel, he's the kind of player who needs to be in a very particular situation to be at his best.

 

[TBLeafer]

He set up his contract when there was no league maximum in terms of years to end the year before the Leafs hit their centennial.

Coincidence?

 

[Kin]

He set up his contract when there was no league maximum in terms of years to end the year before the Leafs hit their centennial.

Coincidence?

Maybe.  I'd guess the fact that it was the earliest possible time he could hit UFA status was probably a bigger deal to him.

 

[TBLeafer]

He set up his contract when there was no league maximum in terms of years to end the year before the Leafs hit their centennial.

Coincidence?

Maybe.  I'd guess the fact that it was the earliest possible time he could hit UFA status was probably a bigger deal to him.

I thought that was after seven years.  hasn't he been in the league now for eight, or am I missing something?  Thought they bought up his first UFA year...

 

[Kin]

Oh, looks like you're right. My mistake.

 

[bustaheims]

I thought that was after seven years.  hasn't he been in the league now for eight, or am I missing something?  Thought they bought up his first UFA year...

They did, but that was likely more a compromise so he could get the kind of money he wanted rather than any concerted effort on his part to become a UFA for the Leafs' centennial. I doubt the centennial even entered into his thinking. So, yeah, I'm gonna go with coincidence. His negotiations to maximize his earnings without substantially delaying him hitting UFA status is what lead to him being a UFA this summer. Nothing more.

I mean, think about it - what's more likely: he saw an opportunity to maximize his earning potential by signing a 5 year deal or that he signed a 5 year deal in the hope that the team he grew up cheering for might be interested in signing him for their centennial season, have the cap space available, and be in a position where they feel it would make sense to do so?

 

[bustaheims]

The more I think about it the more I think a team like Washington or maybe the Islanders makes sense as a destination if Tampa can't sign him.

I think Detroit and Anaheim could make big plays for him, too. Nashville could be an interesting fit, and I can see St Louis seeing him as a replacement for Backes. There's going to be some very intriguing destinations for him, in terms of landing with a contender.