Somebody posted this link earlier in the thread (thanks to whoever posted it):
https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2016/05/10/steven-stamkos-toronto-maple-leafs-salary-cap/
I think it is the most useful article on a potential Stamkos signing I have seen. People will *definitely* quibble with the specific numbers, but that isn't where the value lies. Unlike other articles I've seen, it lays out the Leafs potential salary structure 7 years in the future in a concrete way (and compares with the Blackhawks). The charts on "Projected TML Salary Cap" closer to the bottom are the ones I thought were useful. In particular, what other articles fail to do is to explain in detail what might happen in the critical 19-20 season. In that season, Marner and (let's assume) Matthews will be in their first RFA year and the cap squeeze will hit.
I don't actually know that I agree with the author's conclusion, but the salary framework is useful. For instance, the author hopes that Stamkos might be signed for 10 million, and if so, that leaves 30% of the cap for the bottom half of the roster in the 19-20 season, which is similar to what the Blackhawks have now. If you don't believe signing him for 10 million is plausible, you can see what happens if it is 11 million, for instance. If you want to include JVR, decrease the estimate further. If you don't think the estimates for Marner, Nylander, Matthews future salaries are accurate, you can easily up them and see how much cap space is left. The roster given there doesn't leave room for adding another high-salary defenseman. Anyway, you can play around a bunch to see what happens if you make different assumptions, which is why I think the chart is useful.
Overall, in my opinion, the chart, and the length of the discussion on this board, reinforces what is probably blazingly obvious to most others: signing Stamkos leaves one on the knife's edge (and I think the assumption that Stamkos signs for 10 million is optimistic --- as a rule of thumb, free agents sign for substantially more than what is "reasonable"). It's a risk. If a Stamkos-level defenseman was available, I'd take the risk. If it were easier to make trades these days in the NHL, I'd also take the risk and I'd simply look for ways to trade one of our high-end forwards for the equivalent defenseman. Too bad Stamkos isnt a defenseman and trades ARE hard to make and the chances someone wants to trade their #1 defenseman to the Leafs are miniscule and the chances that a #1 defenceman becomes a UFA AND decides to sign with the Leafs are probably small and at any rate difficult to quantify.
I think I'm mostly going to sit back and trust our management team. If they sign him for 13 million/year, I'm going to be worried. If they sign him for 8 million/year, I'll be happy. (Look at me going out on a limb!) Neither will happen so I guess I'll probably take it in stride.