Steve Stamkos?

[TBLeafer]

10 days until he gets to the bargaining table stage...

 

[Redleaf]

10 days until he gets to the bargaining table stage...

Whether or not you think adding Stamkos to the mix is a good idea, how can most fans not be happy and excited about the direction this club has taken since Shanahan came on board?

And to think that only 3 short months ago, the thought of adding both Matthews and Stamkos to next year's lineup was some far off pipe dream. Now were on the verge of of watching this team hit two grand slam home runs in one off season. Of course, I'd settle for just Matthews if it doesn't go the way I think it will, but still...

Pretty exciting time to be a Leaf fan IMO!

 

[Tigger]

Yet part of the rebuild is precisely what that season produced, so it did its part. 

Yes, by the time the season ended, the rebuild was starting, but it didn't start until midway through the season. At most, you could call the 14/15 season a transitional season - which leaves us back with where I started - in the 2nd year of/going into the 2nd full season of the rebuild.

Okay then, its the second full season.  Like when Buffalo added ROR to Eichel.

As for history, when multiple top prospects of the level of quality Matthews and Marner are enter the league, their teams get better.  It just happens, unless you're Edmonton, who had to wait until they drafted McDavid, but he got injured for a good chunk of the season so they still didn't make it out of the bottom five.

Kopitar, Doughty

Stmakos, Hedman

Toews, Kane

Crosby, Malkin

ROR, Eichel

Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Brown, Zaitsev all playing in their rookie season.  Hell, perhaps even Jimmy Vesey.

When Kopitar played his first season the team dropped 21 points ( drafting Hickey at 4 ), climbed 3 the next year ( drafting Doughty ), and 8 the next. Doughty joined the team during that 8 point increase, as did Quick, it wasn't until Kopitar's 4th season the team leapt forward in the standings.

Stamkos' first year in the league the team dropped 5 points in the standings, allowing them to draft Hedman. The following year, they climbed a remarkable 14 points ( taking, ahem, Brett Connolly at 6 overall ) but it wasn't until Stamkos' 3rd season ( Hedmans 2nd )they really jumped forward, only to fall down again for a few seasons.

Toews and Kane joining the team at the same time definitely had an impact, jumping 16 points but still missing the playoffs and had a pretty significant team already built to play with. The next season they added Quenneville and went to the conference finals.

Crosby's first year the team finished with another dismal 58 points, when Malkin and Staal arrived the year after, yeah they took off, though I don't think we're saying Matthews and Marner will be those guys.

In Buffalo, not only did O'Reilly and Eichel play their first seasons, so did Reinhart, and Ristolainen played his second season. A jump of 27 points is a lot but then they tanked pretty damn hard for those two young centres and were still no where near the playoffs.

So, sometimes they get worse before they get better, sometimes a team has been constructed differently and they get better quicker, it's not an exact defining quality and yes, there's no guarantees with drafting, especially if a team requiring a rebuild gets impatient.

 

[TBLeafer]

10 days until he gets to the bargaining table stage...

Whether or not you think adding Stamkos to the mix is a good idea, how can most fans not be happy and excited about the direction this club has taken since Shanahan came on board?

And to think that only 3 short months ago, the thought of adding both Matthews and Stamkos to next year's lineup was some far off pipe dream. Now were on the verge of of watching this team hit two grand slam home runs in one off season. Of course, I'd settle for just Matthews if it doesn't go the way I think it will, but still...

Pretty exciting time to be a Leaf fan IMO!

On that I think we can all agree.

As for the current state of this Leafs rebuild, it is not the delicate house of cards that some here like to make it out to be.

What they are about to do in the fall is unprecedented and unique in the league, regardless of Stamkos.  It will truly be a rebuild all their own.

Unless of course someone else can show me when 5 of another team's top prospects, stretched across 4 different drafts and 1 UFA signing to a 1 year ELC, all managed to have their rookie season in the same year on their respective team.

That kind of rookie group could really stand to benefit with the addition of a league elite leader and player, no?

 

[rdowdall]

As for history, when multiple top prospects of the level of quality Matthews and Marner are enter the league, their teams get better.  It just happens, unless you're Edmonton, who had to wait until they drafted McDavid, but he got injured for a good chunk of the season so they still didn't make it out of the bottom five.

Kopitar, Doughty

Stmakos, Hedman

Toews, Kane

Crosby, Malkin

ROR, Eichel

Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Brown, Zaitsev all playing in their rookie season.  Hell, perhaps even Jimmy Vesey.

See the problem with that list is that the only two that were rookies in the same year were Kane and Toews.  Every other team, the other player mentioned was established.  None of the players that you have listed have played significant time in the NHL.  Also, the other point that should be made is that 4 out of those 5 teams did not add major pieces in between the drafting of the young talent and showing the improvement that you would like to see.   

Doughty's impact on the Kings in his rookie season was 8 points, from 71 points for the Kings to 79. 

Hedman's impact on the Lightning was to bring the team from 66 points to 80, however I think there should be an asterisk on that one because that team also had Martin St. Louis and Vincent Lecalvier.

Toews and Kane improved by 17 points between 2007 and 2008. 

Crosby and Malkin improved by 47 points from 58 to 105 points.  However, at this point Crosby was in his second year, Malkin and Staal were rookies on that team, and the pens also had Marc-Andre Fleury and Ryan Whitney as top 5 picks on the team. 

Finally Ryan O' Reilly and Eichel went from 54 to 81 points.  An improvement of 27 points.  Besides just Ryan O'Reilly, they added Evander Kane, and Rasmus Ristolainen doubled his point total.  Sam Reinhart also played.
 
Here's the thing though, in order to be included in the group above, then they need to show improvement again  this year.  Because if they don't, what does that say about their plan?  We only have two data points to go on with this example.  If they drop off from 81 points to 72 points for example, then where are they headed?  If you look at the roster they have constructed, does it look like one that is going to challenge for a cup this year or next? 

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0000332016.html

Their defence is pretty woeful and a lot of their prospects are on the wings.   

The closest team to where the Leafs are now would be Chicago, and in order for that to happen, then Marner and/or Matthews would have to have one of the top 5 rookie seasons since 2005 in order to have that sort of jump. because if we are basing it on what Toews and Kane did, they both had phenomenal rookie seasons that year.  Again, Chicago waited until they saw that Toews and Kane were actually Toews and Kane before trying to add major pieces.   

Also, your examples don't list teams like Colorado, Calgary, and Montreal where they added good young pieces, tried to augment them, leaped forward, and then stumbled back.  This is a scenario that I could see happening to Buffalo, but we really won't know until we see how the next season plays out.  This is the scenario that I want the Leafs to avoid.  The yo-yo up and down through the standings.   

 

[Misty]

As RL stated, Babcock was a "win now" coach.  Stamkos has an EVEN MORE vested interest in becoming a Leaf and probably raised an eyebrow when Babs failed to sign with the Red Wings, just as he has failed to sign/turned down an offer(s) thus far with Tampa.

EVERY Toronto area born and raised fan of the team has an unwavering dream of seeing Toronto raise the Stanley Cup.  The allure as Stamkos watching this rebuild unfold as it is should show him that in his next 7 year term, the Leafs are going to be continually building toward that same goal. 

He will be in his prime and can contribute handily over the next 7 years to the Leafs achieving that goal. He would be the proven elite player and leader that would see the group of Matthews, Marner and Nylander along though their ELC and RFA years.

His contract would be tied to the remainder of Babcock's 8 year term.  Do you think Babcock possibly wants to win one during that time?

I'm not quite sure I see how that addresses my point rather than restating the premise that he'd feel a limited window of opportunity for winning with a Leaf crest on his jersey trumps a far greater likelihood of doing it with another team that is already in a competitive position.

The entire Leafs management team, Babcock included, has devoted the year to tempering fan expectations with a constant stream of "it's going to take as long as it takes...we're simply embarking on a process and we're going to hold to it no matter how long it takes." Does Babcock want to win a cup within the next 8 years? Sure. Does he expect to? Not if he's as smart as he's said to be. I think he, himself, stated that he simply intends for the team to be in the discussion when it comes to legitimate contenders towards the end of his current contract, and to remain in that discussion. The message has been pretty clear, though, from Brendan, Lou and Mike: it's going to take time.

If Stamkos has been listening, he'll know that by signing with the Leafs he'll be significantly reducing his shorter term chances of hoisting a cup as a player. After all, I'm sure he's aware that even at the peak of the Wings' success under Babcock, they still only won one cup and that was with a strongly established core of well-developed high-end players...something the Leafs utterly lack at this point in time. That's more a cautionary tale for Stamkos than a selling feature.

Maybe his motivation is an altruistic desire to help the Leafs toward that eventual goal, even if they don't achieve it until after his playing days are over. It's just not an attitude that most players with his elite skills tends to exhibit. Most, like Hossa, try to position themselves with the best possible chance to win.

 

[TBLeafer]

Yet part of the rebuild is precisely what that season produced, so it did its part. 

Yes, by the time the season ended, the rebuild was starting, but it didn't start until midway through the season. At most, you could call the 14/15 season a transitional season - which leaves us back with where I started - in the 2nd year of/going into the 2nd full season of the rebuild.

Okay then, its the second full season.  Like when Buffalo added ROR to Eichel.

As for history, when multiple top prospects of the level of quality Matthews and Marner are enter the league, their teams get better.  It just happens, unless you're Edmonton, who had to wait until they drafted McDavid, but he got injured for a good chunk of the season so they still didn't make it out of the bottom five.

Kopitar, Doughty

Stmakos, Hedman

Toews, Kane

Crosby, Malkin

ROR, Eichel

Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Brown, Zaitsev all playing in their rookie season.  Hell, perhaps even Jimmy Vesey.

When Kopitar played his first season the team dropped 21 points ( drafting Hickey at 4 ), climbed 3 the next year ( drafting Doughty ), and 8 the next. Doughty joined the team during that 8 point increase, as did Quick, it wasn't until Kopitar's 4th season the team leapt forward in the standings.

Stamkos' first year in the league the team dropped 5 points in the standings, allowing them to draft Hedman. The following year, they climbed a remarkable 14 points ( taking, ahem, Brett Connolly at 6 overall ) but it wasn't until Stamkos' 3rd season ( Hedmans 2nd )they really jumped forward, only to fall down again for a few seasons.

Toews and Kane joining the team at the same time definitely had an impact, jumping 16 points but still missing the playoffs and had a pretty significant team already built to play with. The next season they added Quenneville and went to the conference finals.

Crosby's first year the team finished with another dismal 58 points, when Malkin and Staal arrived the year after, yeah they took off, though I don't think we're saying Matthews and Marner will be those guys.

In Buffalo, not only did O'Reilly and Eichel play their first seasons, so did Reinhart, and Ristolainen played his second season. A jump of 27 points is a lot but then they tanked pretty damn hard for those two young centres and were still no where near the playoffs.

So, sometimes they get worse before they get better, sometimes a team has been constructed differently and they get better quicker, it's not an exact defining quality and yes, there's no guarantees with drafting, especially if a team requiring a rebuild gets impatient.

Exactly.  yet we HAVE been patient.  We didn't shove Nylander and Marner right into the league.  This would be a much different discussion if Nylander already proved himself through his sophomore season, while Marner was proving himself through his rookie season, moving the rebuild "further along".

I have no doubt that this is what would have happened if Shanny hadn't come in to stay Nonis' hand.  Now they all get to "prove" themselves together with the addition of Matthews in tow.

I mean seriously, what has Marner really done to prove he's ready for the NHL?

It not like he's the only player in OHL history to win EVERY top award in a single season.

I mean seriously, what has Matthews done to prove he's ready for the NHL?

It's not like he looked like one of the better players when the US played a Team Canada full of NHL'ers or anything.

 

[TBLeafer]

As RL stated, Babcock was a "win now" coach.  Stamkos has an EVEN MORE vested interest in becoming a Leaf and probably raised an eyebrow when Babs failed to sign with the Red Wings, just as he has failed to sign/turned down an offer(s) thus far with Tampa.

EVERY Toronto area born and raised fan of the team has an unwavering dream of seeing Toronto raise the Stanley Cup.  The allure as Stamkos watching this rebuild unfold as it is should show him that in his next 7 year term, the Leafs are going to be continually building toward that same goal. 

He will be in his prime and can contribute handily over the next 7 years to the Leafs achieving that goal. He would be the proven elite player and leader that would see the group of Matthews, Marner and Nylander along though their ELC and RFA years.

His contract would be tied to the remainder of Babcock's 8 year term.  Do you think Babcock possibly wants to win one during that time?

I'm not quite sure I see how that addresses my point rather than restating the premise that he'd feel a limited window of opportunity for winning with a Leaf crest on his jersey trumps a far greater likelihood of doing it with another team that is already in a competitive position.

The entire Leafs management team, Babcock included, has devoted the year to tempering fan expectations with a constant stream of "it's going to take as long as it takes...we're simply embarking on a process and we're going to hold to it no matter how long it takes." Does Babcock want to win a cup within the next 8 years? Sure. Does he expect to? Not if he's as smart as he's said to be. I think he, himself, stated that he simply intends for the team to be in the discussion when it comes to legitimate contenders towards the end of his current contract, and to remain in that discussion. The message has been pretty clear, though, from Brendan, Lou and Mike: it's going to take time.

If Stamkos has been listening, he'll know that by signing with the Leafs he'll be significantly reducing his shorter term chances of hoisting a cup as a player. After all, I'm sure he's aware that even at the peak of the Wings' success under Babcock, they still only won one cup and that was with a strongly established core of well-developed high-end players...something the Leafs utterly lack at this point in time. That's more a cautionary tale for Stamkos than a selling feature.

Maybe his motivation is an altruistic desire to help the Leafs toward that eventual goal, even if they don't achieve it until after his playing days are over. It's just not an attitude that most players with his elite skills tends to exhibit. Most, like Hossa, try to position themselves with the best possible chance to win.

I guess I just don't think that him being in the 3rd or 4th year of his contract (the midway point approx.) when the Leafs should be fully ready to compete if this rebuild has been successful, would seem too far down the road for him.

 

[Tigger]

Patience requires a little more than 15 months and shiny new toys.

 

[TBLeafer]

Patience requires a little more than 15 months and shiny new toys.

How many draft picks do we have over the next three seasons again, including this June 24th?

It doesn't stop with signing Stamkos.  Just the top 10 first rounders do.

I'm perfectly okay with that at this point.  We have enough of those to form our new core around.

 

[Tigger]

Patience requires a little more than 15 months and shiny new toys.

How many draft picks do we have over the next three seasons again, including this June 24th?

It doesn't stop with signing Stamkos.  Just the top 10 first rounders do.

I'm perfectly okay with that at this point.  We have enough of those to form our new core around.

You don't really know that, I get that you 'feel' that but it's really unknown right now. You didn't really address that last post either, just skipped by the evidence and said the same thing.

 

[Al14]

Patience requires a little more than 15 months and shiny new toys.

How many draft picks do we have over the next three seasons again, including this June 24th?

It doesn't stop with signing Stamkos.  Just the top 10 first rounders do.

I'm perfectly okay with that at this point.  We have enough of those to form our new core around.

I just can't see us signing Stamkos.  Despite the lack of Cap space, I see him signing in Detroit to be closer to home.  Failing that, I see him as a Ranger.

Still, it would be nice to have him as a Leaf.  Fingers crossed.

 

[TBLeafer]

Patience requires a little more than 15 months and shiny new toys.

How many draft picks do we have over the next three seasons again, including this June 24th?

It doesn't stop with signing Stamkos.  Just the top 10 first rounders do.

I'm perfectly okay with that at this point.  We have enough of those to form our new core around.

You don't really know that, I get that you 'feel' that but it's really unknown right now. You didn't really address that last post either, just skipped by the evidence and said the same thing.

What exactly do you mean by evidence?  It all seemed like opinions to me, so I responded with my own.

 

[Coco-puffs]

I just can't see us signing Stamkos.  Despite the lack of Cap space, I see him signing in Detroit to be closer to home.  Failing that, I see him as a Ranger.

Still, it would be nice to have him as a Leaf.  Fingers crossed.

Toronto is much closer to Markham than Detroit.  Am I missing something? 

 

[Al14]

I just can't see us signing Stamkos.  Despite the lack of Cap space, I see him signing in Detroit to be closer to home.  Failing that, I see him as a Ranger.

Still, it would be nice to have him as a Leaf.  Fingers crossed.

Toronto is much closer to Markham than Detroit.  Am I missing something?

Yes, however, if he doesn't want to sign with our Leafs, Detroit would be the next closest after Buffalo.

Not sure he'd be interested in Buffalo.

 

[TBLeafer]

I just can't see us signing Stamkos.  Despite the lack of Cap space, I see him signing in Detroit to be closer to home.  Failing that, I see him as a Ranger.

Still, it would be nice to have him as a Leaf.  Fingers crossed.

Toronto is much closer to Markham than Detroit.  Am I missing something?

Yes, however, if he doesn't want to sign with our Leafs, Detroit would be the next closest after Buffalo.

Not sure he'd be interested in Buffalo.

I'd say Buffalo looks to actually have more promise than an ageing Detroit roster with no top prospects.  They are regressing.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

I just can't see us signing Stamkos.  Despite the lack of Cap space, I see him signing in Detroit to be closer to home.  Failing that, I see him as a Ranger.

Still, it would be nice to have him as a Leaf.  Fingers crossed.

Toronto is much closer to Markham than Detroit.  Am I missing something?

Yes, however, if he doesn't want to sign with our Leafs, Detroit would be the next closest after Buffalo.

Not sure he'd be interested in Buffalo.

I'd say Buffalo looks to actually have more promise than an ageing Detroit roster with no top prospects.  They are regressing.

Have you been to Buffalo? (Detroit isn't much better I know.)

 

[TBLeafer]

I just can't see us signing Stamkos.  Despite the lack of Cap space, I see him signing in Detroit to be closer to home.  Failing that, I see him as a Ranger.

Still, it would be nice to have him as a Leaf.  Fingers crossed.

Toronto is much closer to Markham than Detroit.  Am I missing something?

Yes, however, if he doesn't want to sign with our Leafs, Detroit would be the next closest after Buffalo.

Not sure he'd be interested in Buffalo.

I'd say Buffalo looks to actually have more promise than an ageing Detroit roster with no top prospects.  They are regressing.

Have you been to Buffalo? (Detroit isn't much better I know.)

Not beyond driving through it or watching a Bills or a Leafs game there.  Can't say I've checked out the nightlife with Niagra Falls so close.

I think proximity to Toronto and future Stanley Cup contention both currently favour Buffalo over Detroit.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

Not beyond driving through it or watching a Bills or a Leafs game there.  Can't say I've checked out the nightlife with Niagra Falls so close.

I think proximity to Toronto and future Stanley Cup contention both currently favour Buffalo over Detroit.

Downtown Buffalo is a lot like you'd imagine Toronto about 10 years into a nuclear armageddon.

 

[Tigger]

Patience requires a little more than 15 months and shiny new toys.

How many draft picks do we have over the next three seasons again, including this June 24th?

It doesn't stop with signing Stamkos.  Just the top 10 first rounders do.

I'm perfectly okay with that at this point.  We have enough of those to form our new core around.

You don't really know that, I get that you 'feel' that but it's really unknown right now. You didn't really address that last post either, just skipped by the evidence and said the same thing.

What exactly do you mean by evidence?  It all seemed like opinions to me, so I responded with my own.

You stated that when players of this calibre enter the league, teams get better 'it just happens', and proceeded to list a group of players. That's what SI and I were responding to.