The Defensive Logjam

[CarltonTheBear]

Marchenko is 2nd highest at +9.

Further proof, arguably, that this is a meaningless stat. Marchenko hasn't exactly been a refreshing edition to the team so far.

I believe that stat was for Marchenko's entire season. As a Leaf he's a -1 in 5 games. Just for the record.

 

[herman]

The Video Room: How the Leafs can learn from the Canadiens when it comes to defensive zone coverage
https://theathletic.com/42820/2017/03/08/the-video-room-how-the-leafs-can-from-the-canadiens-when-it-comes-to-defensive-zone-coverage/

https://twitter.com/ArponBasu/status/837762063355293697
www.twitter.com/ArponBasu/status/837762063355293697

I can't be certain without reviewing more game footage, but I think the Leafs already started to do this (Marner, sort of!) with little soccer chips to open ice even in the defensive zone.

 

[herman]

Gardiner-Zaitsev sport at 43.8% CF% (46.25% SZV adj.) and a 37.5% GF% with a normal PDO of 99.  Small sample size of course, and granted they have led most of those games but overall, Rielly-Zaitsev looks like the better long term play based on CF% being more predictive of future success.

It's definitely too early to read into the GF% right now. The raw stats are just 3 for and 5 against, so really one good game could push them back up to 50% (or one bad could make it look significantly worse). All in all a 2.60 GA/60 together is actually pretty good. It's the GF side of the equation that needs some work. Rielly-Zaitsev was sporting a 5.35 GA/60 in February/March before the break-up.

As for CF%, yeah it's not great. Jake got absolutely shellacked in the games against TB, BOS, and NSH. If the pairing stayed together and we got more data would we see those as outliers eventually or are we predicting that he'll be under 27% in 3 out of every 8 games? I don't know, but I think it's definitely too early to make any definite statements about this.

https://theleafsnation.com/2017/03/31/morgan-rielly-jake-gardiner-and-the-importance-of-quality-of-competition/

TLN with a pretty good breakdown of the QoC and matchups the two have faced this season, so far.

I haven't read it all yet, but until someone clearly rises above, it looks like the way forward is to rotate them as 1A/1B LHD options and just go with whoever is looking hot and swap around whoever is not.

 

[herman]

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/big-read-jake-gardiner-proves-risk-worth-reward/

He had a bad, bad bank pass last night where I cannot figure out what he was trying to do, but that's a small price to pay for all the little things he really does right, and better than most.

 

[slapshot]

Like to see the Leafs invite Erie right-handed D-Man Darren Raddysh to a professional try-out this fall. Undrafted Toronto area kid, just named OHL overaged player of the year:
http://www.goerie.com/sports/20170427/otters-darren-raddysh-selected-ohl-overager-of-year
6.1 just over 200 pounds, has decent size. Set Erie records for d-man. Might be a late bloomer that would look decent in Leafs system. He's already been invited to some NHL camps in the past. Might be time for Leafs to move in and snag hometown kid. His brother, Taylor, is a second round Tampa pick.

 

[slapshot]

Brought this up a couple of weeks ago and now its getting some traction...

http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2017/5/12/15605462/darren-raddysh-toronto-maple-leafs-depth-chart-free-agents-erie-otters-nhl-free-agency-ohl-finals

 

[Bullfrog]

I say pass, mostly so that we don't have to see Highlander call him Horse.
:-X

 

[L K]

I say pass, mostly so that we don't have to see Highlander call him Horse.
:-X

Come on Bullfrog. I know you want to join the Raddish Patch Kids with me.

 

[Highlander]

I say pass, mostly so that we don't have to see Highlander call him Horse.
:-X

LOL, i have been quite on he nicknames for a while now!

 

[sickbeast]

I am boycotting this thread until the Leafs have enough genuine talent on the blue line to constitute a "logjam".

 

[herman]

I am boycotting this thread until the Leafs have enough genuine talent on the blue line to constitute a "logjam".

 

[AtomicMapleLeaf]

Watching tonight's game.  Wow lots of good defensemen on the ice.

 

[sickbeast]

I am boycotting this thread until the Leafs have enough genuine talent on the blue line to constitute a "logjam".

It looks like you jammed the door.  That is a logjam of sorts.  You also seem to be distracted by your phone.

 

[Heroic Shrimp]

I am boycotting this thread until the Leafs have enough genuine talent on the blue line to constitute a "logjam".

I think a more widespread boycott would make a stronger statement.

 

[herman]

State of the Defense Corps

LD Cap Hit	12.66		RD Cap Hit	6.70
Left Defense	Cap Hit (M)	Expiry	Right Defense	Cap Hit (M)	Expiry
Morgan Rielly	5.00	2022 - UFA	Nikita Zaitsev	4.50	2024 - UFA
Jake Gardiner	4.05	2019 - UFA	Alexey Marchenko	1.45	2018 - RFA
Martin Marincin	1.25	2018 - RFA	Connor Carrick	0.75	2018 - RFA
Travis Dermott	0.89	2019 - RFA	Justin Holl	--	2017 - RFA
Rinat Valiev	0.78	2018 - RFA
Andrew Nielsen	0.69	2019 - RFA

Blue = Under contract beyond next season
Teal = ELC

Rumoured European UFA signings (at 1-year ELCs):
Calle Rosen
Philip Holm

Teams with Expansion Draft crunches at Defense that I just eyeballed so there are probably some less than useful listings here because I can't be bothered to research in-depth into all of them, highlighting names I have interest in for whatever reason, regardless of feasibility, even depth options:
ANA: Bieksa (NMC), Lindholm, Fowler, Vatanen, Manson
CBJ: Jones, Johnson, Savard, Murray
FLA: Yandle (NMC), Demers, Pysyk, Ekblad
LAK: Doughty, Martinez, Muzzin, McNabb
MIN: Suter (NMC), Spurgeon, Brodin, Scandella, Dumba
NAS: Subban, Josi, Ekholm, Ellis
NYI: Boychuk (NMC), Leddy, Hamonic, De Haan
PIT: Letang (NMC), Maatta, Cole, Schultz
STL: Pietrangelo, Bouwmeester, Gunnarsson, Bortuzzo
VAN: Edler, Tanev, Sbisa, Gudbranson
WSH: Niskanen, Carlson, Orlov, Schmidt
WIN: Byfuglien (NMC), Enstrom (NMC), Myers, Trouba

A lot of these are not going to shake loose.

Edit: Frickin' Olli M??tt?'s name.

 

[cabber24]

State of the Defense Corps

LD Cap Hit	12.66		RD Cap Hit	6.70
Left Defense	Cap Hit (M)	Expiry	Right Defense	Cap Hit (M)	Expiry
Morgan Rielly	5.00	2022 - UFA	Nikita Zaitsev	4.50	2024 - UFA
Jake Gardiner	4.05	2019 - UFA	Alexey Marchenko	1.45	2018 - RFA
Martin Marincin	1.25	2018 - RFA	Connor Carrick	0.75	2018 - RFA
Travis Dermott	0.89	2019 - RFA	Justin Holl	--	2017 - RFA
Rinat Valiev	0.78	2018 - RFA
Andrew Nielsen	0.69	2019 - RFA

Blue = Under contract beyond next season
Teal = ELC

Rumoured European UFA signings (at 1-year ELCs):
Calle Rosen
Philip Holm

Teams with Expansion Draft crunches at Defense that I just eyeballed so there are probably some less than useful listings here because I can't be bothered to research in-depth into all of them, highlighting names I have interest in for whatever reason, regardless of feasibility, even depth options:
ANA: Bieksa (NMC), Lindholm, Fowler, Vatanen, Manson
CBJ: Jones, Johnson, Savard, Murray
FLA: Yandle (NMC), Demers, Pysyk, Ekblad
LAK: Doughty, Martinez, Muzzin, McNabb
MIN: Suter (NMC), Spurgeon, Brodin, Scandella, Dumba
NAS: Subban, Josi, Ekholm, Ellis
NYI: Boychuk (NMC), Leddy, Hamonic, De Haan
PIT: Letang (NMC), Maata, Cole, Schultz
STL: Pietrangelo, Bouwmeester, Gunnarsson, Bortuzzo
VAN: Edler, Tanev, Sbisa, Gudbranson
WSH: Niskanen, Carlson, Orlov, Schmidt
WIN: Byfuglien (NMC), Enstrom (NMC), Myers, Trouba

A lot of these are not going to shake loose.

Give me one of those NAS guys please!

http://www.ontheforecheck.com/2016/12/5/13845918/2017-expansion-draft-who-should-nashville-protect
I would imagine that NAS will likely be trading one of Arvidsson, Sissons or a Ellis since at least one of these 3 will likely be exposed in the expansion draft and are likely to be drafted by LV if available.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Give me one of those NAS guys please!

http://www.ontheforecheck.com/2016/12/5/13845918/2017-expansion-draft-who-should-nashville-protect
I would imagine that NAS will likely be trading one of Arvidsson, Sissons or a Ellis since at least one of these 3 will likely be exposed in the expansion draft and are likely to be drafted by LV if available.

I think Nashville 100% protects/keeps all 4 of their big defencemen. At forward they'll protect Johansen, Neal, Forsberg, and Arvidsson.

That'll leave guys like Colin Wilson, Craig Smith, and Calle Jarnkrok available. All good 3rd line players but having to lose one of them won't be the end of the world.

 

[pmrules]

Give me one of those NAS guys please!

http://www.ontheforecheck.com/2016/12/5/13845918/2017-expansion-draft-who-should-nashville-protect
I would imagine that NAS will likely be trading one of Arvidsson, Sissons or a Ellis since at least one of these 3 will likely be exposed in the expansion draft and are likely to be drafted by LV if available.

I think Nashville 100% protects/keeps all 4 of their big defencemen. At forward they'll protect Johansen, Neal, Forsberg, and Arvidsson.

That'll leave guys like Colin Wilson, Craig Smith, and Calle Jarnkrok available. All good 3rd line players but having to lose one of them won't be the end of the world.

Exactly - I think Minnesota is in more trouble than Nashville.  And even that can be fixed with a deal directly with Las Vegas. 

 

[cabber24]

Give me one of those NAS guys please!

http://www.ontheforecheck.com/2016/12/5/13845918/2017-expansion-draft-who-should-nashville-protect
I would imagine that NAS will likely be trading one of Arvidsson, Sissons or a Ellis since at least one of these 3 will likely be exposed in the expansion draft and are likely to be drafted by LV if available.

I think Nashville 100% protects/keeps all 4 of their big defencemen. At forward they'll protect Johansen, Neal, Forsberg, and Arvidsson.

That'll leave guys like Colin Wilson, Craig Smith, and Calle Jarnkrok available. All good 3rd line players but having to lose one of them won't be the end of the world.

Exactly - I think Minnesota is in more trouble than Nashville.  And even that can be fixed with a deal directly with Las Vegas.

I really like Sissons two way game and expect him to pickup the scoring next year.

 

[bustaheims]

I really like Sissons two way game and expect him to pickup the scoring next year.

He's never really been a particularly prolific scorer at any level, so I doubt his output increases in any real significant way. He probably settles into the 10-12 goal a season range, with the occasional season at 15+.