The Signings

[dappleganger]

I have faith Keefe will get a system in place where less defensively responsible guys will do well. Also, let's just play the entire game in the offensive zone and not worry about it as much.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

I liked the change they made last night when they moved Jarnkrok up onto Tavares' line. He seems to fit better than Domi. I also liked Domi with the kids. He seemed to fit better there.

 

[yuzisee]

So maybe with Bye Week it's a good time to ask this question:

• We all know about players who do well in the regular season and then crumble during the pressure of playoffs.
• Is it possible to have players who are the opposite? Players who are easy to complain about and underperform during the regular season, but are "Playoff Rielly" style players in the playoffs? Is it possible that Domi and Bertuzzi (maybe Reaves??) were acquired for that purpose?

But I guess it's impossible to know (a) whether this is actually a thing, and (b) whether it will work out for the Leafs' UFA acquisitions? until the playoffs actually happen. So what is there to do, other than wait?

 

[herman]

So maybe with Bye Week it's a good time to ask this question:

• We all know about players who do well in the regular season and then crumble during the pressure of playoffs.
• Is it possible to have players who are the opposite? Players who are easy to complain about and underperform during the regular season, but are "Playoff Rielly" style players in the playoffs? Is it possible that Domi and Bertuzzi (maybe Reaves??) were acquired for that purpose?

But I guess it's impossible to know (a) whether this is actually a thing, and (b) whether it will work out for the Leafs' UFA acquisitions? until the playoffs actually happen. So what is there to do, other than wait?

Bertuzzi is reputed to be a playoff performer (in style and one time in practice), and I can see where some folks are coming from there. He pushes play in the right direction largely through his off-puck play to make space for linemates: little picks, lots of stick lifts, lane drives in his meandering chaotic way. When Bertuzzi is on, the primary play carrier gets more time and space, on top of Bertuzzi's playmaking in tight around the net. He is currently snake-bitten and hasn't had the usual PP looks he previously got to build confidence off of. We'll see how it goes as the games get tighter after the deadline.

Rielly's playoff play is well documented, and largely bolstered by his footspeed and Dubas often swinging for a stay-at-home guy to anchor the backend of the pairing to handle the physical board work on retrievals.

Nylander's playoff performance is also evident as he has the skating and strength and puck control to break through the tighter NZ/DZ checking, and the shot threat and playmaking to create opportunities, AND the 1st line shelter of Matthews eating the harder match ups. As long as Tavares doesn't turn over the puck too much, they can cook.

80% of the time, Marner appears to wilt in playoff games because he puts a lot of pressure on himself to create, which leads to hero-puck plays, which work < 20% of the time. He gets forced to the perimeter if holding the puck, and into turnovers pretty readily (he holds the puck out in front with a pretty long stick, rather than hip pocket) and his penchant for passing means defenses just zero in on walling off the Matthews pass and both players are essentially neutralized.

Matthews has been hampered with lingering injury for the past couple of playoffs. He looks very dangerous this year and less reliant on Marner with carries, which should hold him in good stead for all the same reasons Nylander is effective + he's just better in most other facets.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Nylander's playoff performance is also evident as he has the skating and strength and puck control to break through the tighter NZ/DZ checking, and the shot threat and playmaking to create opportunities, AND the 1st line shelter of Matthews eating the harder match ups. As long as Tavares doesn't turn over the puck too much, they can cook.

80% of the time, Marner appears to wilt in playoff games because he puts a lot of pressure on himself to create, which leads to hero-puck plays, which work < 20% of the time. He gets forced to the perimeter if holding the puck, and into turnovers pretty readily (he holds the puck out in front with a pretty long stick, rather than hip pocket) and his penchant for passing means defenses just zero in on walling off the Matthews pass and both players are essentially neutralized.

I get that their playoff reputations are pretty locked in right now and to a degree it's warranted both ways but it's probably worth noting that through 50 career playoff games Marner is outscoring Nylander by 7 points. Even just looking through the more recent Keefe-era ones Marner is outscoring him 30-29. At 5-on-5 under Keefe Marner also has the CF advantage (54.5% to 51.4%), GF advantage (61.7% to 39.4%), and xGF advantage (60.6% to 52.7%). Plus Marner has consistently been a top unit PKer while Nylander hasn't gotten the chance to do that in playoffs yet (looking forward to that finally happening).

Marner also led the entire team in playoff scoring last year with 14 points in 11 games, while Nylander finished 4th with 10 points. In the groups long awaited first ever playoff series win it was Marner leading the team in scoring with almost 2 points per game (11 in 6) while Nylander had 7 points. Both of them of course faltered in round 2 with just 3 points each (still more than Matthews and Tavares).

Again, I get the reputations and to a degree they are very warranted. Marner, especially at his salary, has underperformed in a number of playoff games/rounds. But I think the idea of him wilting in 80% of playoff games while Nylander is seen as some playoff god is a little exaggerated.

 

[herman]

I get that their playoff reputations are pretty locked in right now and to a degree it's warranted both ways but it's probably worth noting that through 50 career playoff games Marner is outscoring Nylander by 7 points. Even just looking through the more recent Keefe-era ones Marner is outscoring him 30-29. At 5-on-5 under Keefe Marner also has the CF advantage (54.5% to 51.4%), GF advantage (61.7% to 39.4%), and xGF advantage (60.6% to 52.7%). Plus Marner has consistently been a top unit PKer while Nylander hasn't gotten the chance to do that in playoffs yet (looking forward to that finally happening).

Marner also led the entire team in playoff scoring last year with 14 points in 11 games, while Nylander finished 4th with 10 points. In the groups long awaited first ever playoff series win it was Marner leading the team in scoring with almost 2 points per game (11 in 6) while Nylander had 7 points. Both of them of course faltered in round 2 with just 3 points each (still more than Matthews and Tavares).

Again, I get the reputations and to a degree they are very warranted. Marner, especially at his salary, has underperformed in a number of playoff games/rounds. But I think the idea of him wilting in 80% of playoff games while Nylander is seen as some playoff god is a little exaggerated.

All fair points, and my brand is obvious by now.

I would like to point to the discrepancy in TOI during the last three playoffs in particular. Marner/Matthews (425, 407 min) played 100+ min compared to Nylander (333 min), so of course their totals would be higher. It's only a touch higher. Much of Marner's is PK time, as his and Nylander's even strength differential is 20 min, as is their PP diff, which reflects that silly wonderful time when Nylander was not on PP1).

Eye test/memory bias-wise: goal scorers usually are more memorable, and Nylander's scoring rate is just a shade under Matthews' in this time period, on par with Tavares. Coupled with their salary expectations during that time... Matthews (and to a degree Tavares) has underperformed as well.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I would like to point to the discrepancy in TOI during the last three playoffs in particular. Marner/Matthews (425, 407 min) played 100+ min compared to Nylander (333 min), so of course their totals would be higher. It's only a touch higher. Much of Marner's is PK time, as his and Nylander's even strength differential is 20 min, as is their PP diff, which reflects that silly wonderful time when Nylander was not on PP1).

For sure. And again not to excuse any players own performance but some of this falls on Keefe as well for consistently refusing to try something other than having Matthews and Marner stapled together come playoff time and making it incredibly easy for the opposing coach to play the match-up game.

 

[herman]

I would like to point to the discrepancy in TOI during the last three playoffs in particular. Marner/Matthews (425, 407 min) played 100+ min compared to Nylander (333 min), so of course their totals would be higher. It's only a touch higher. Much of Marner's is PK time, as his and Nylander's even strength differential is 20 min, as is their PP diff, which reflects that silly wonderful time when Nylander was not on PP1).

For sure. And again not to excuse any players own performance but some of this falls on Keefe as well for consistently refusing to try something other than having Matthews and Marner stapled together come playoff time and making it incredibly easy for the opposing coach to play the match-up game.

The go-to solution is adding Tavares to the line (or lately, Nylander).

Part of Marner's ineffectiveness probably stems from him being played like 1RD in terms of minutes. Top 6 in minutes for the past 3 playoff seasons:
Marner 425.52
Rielly 423.46
Brodie 416.12
Matthews 407.36
Tavares 336.04
Nylander 333.55

 

[dappleganger]

I would like to point to the discrepancy in TOI during the last three playoffs in particular. Marner/Matthews (425, 407 min) played 100+ min compared to Nylander (333 min), so of course their totals would be higher. It's only a touch higher. Much of Marner's is PK time, as his and Nylander's even strength differential is 20 min, as is their PP diff, which reflects that silly wonderful time when Nylander was not on PP1).

For sure. And again not to excuse any players own performance but some of this falls on Keefe as well for consistently refusing to try something other than having Matthews and Marner stapled together come playoff time and making it incredibly easy for the opposing coach to play the match-up game.

The go-to solution is adding Tavares to the line (or lately, Nylander).

Part of Marner's ineffectiveness probably stems from him being played like 1RD in terms of minutes. Top 6 in minutes for the past 3 playoff seasons:
Marner 425.52
Rielly 423.46
Brodie 416.12
Matthews 407.36
Tavares 336.04
Nylander 333.55

Marner's ice time is pretty crazy.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

Penalty killing would help jack up Marner's number.

 

[herman]

Marner played 45 min on the PK over the 3 playoff seasons. The only other two above are Brodie (55) and Kampf (48).
I maintain we could spare Marner those minutes by playing some of the other cheapo fast wingers for like half of that so he can conserve and focus on generating offense.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Marner played 45 min on the PK over the 3 playoff seasons. The only other two above are Brodie (55) and Kampf (48).

Just an FYI the numbers you've been posting are for the past 2 playoff seasons (2022, 2023).

 

[herman]

Marner played 45 min on the PK over the 3 playoff seasons. The only other two above are Brodie (55) and Kampf (48).

Just an FYI the numbers you've been posting are for the past 2 playoff seasons (2022, 2023).

Bahaha, yes. Why is there filter data for 2023-24

So 3 playoff series' worth of info.
Adding the Montreal series makes Nylander look even better.