#TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?

[mr grieves]

Updated the OP to include the chart to include the next ten-game chunk.


<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<GAMES 1-20>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

..................	Current...............	Pace...................	Projected............	vs. 2015-16........
SF	679 (4th)	2,651 (1st)	n/a	2,517 (6th)
5v5 SCF	183 (1st)	715 (1st)	n/a	498 (19th)
Sh%	9.7% (7th)	9.7% (6th)	8.8% (avg)	7.6% (30th)
GF	66 (T-3rd)	258 (2nd)	233 (7th)	191 (28th)
SA	698 (29th)	2,726 (30th)	n/a	2,501 (21st)
5v5 SCA	165 (29th)	644 (29th)	n/a	504 (13th)
Sv%	.904 (22nd)	.904 (23rd)	.908 (avg)	.904 (23rd)
GA	66 (27th)	262 (30th)	251 (29th)	240 (24th)
DIFF.	-1 (14th)	-4 (17th)	-17 (20th)	-49 (29th)

Compared to the first ten games...

• Leafs aren't generating as many shots as they were, but they're still coming out ahead in scoring chances (using Corsica.hockey's). Even at the reduced rate, their pace would put them at the top of the league in 2015-16.
• They're giving up more shots than they were in the opening set, but the scoring chances against aren't much worse. Which is good, because they were already at the bottom of the league.
• Their percentages have bounced back. Goaltending has been good enough [.916 in gm. 11-20] that this season's back in line with last season's (which isn't good, but isn't godawful), and their shooting has rebounded [11% in last ten] that they're in they'd been in top-tier of the league.

So... offensive play isn't quite holding up, but the better than league average shooting is compensating for now. At the same time, defensive play isn't improving, but goaltending is rebounding to where it should be.

They remain a playoff bubble team, I think.

 

 

[Zee]

Auston Matthews: Calder finalist
Frederik Andersen: Vezina finalist
Nazem Kadri: Selke finalist
Mike Babcock: Jack Adams finalist

... not out of the realm of possibility.

Selke conversation for Kadri is a bit aggressive.

 

[Kin]

Yeah, it seems more likely that the Leafs have two Calder finalists.

 

[disco]

Auston Matthews: Calder finalist
Frederik Andersen: Vezina finalist
Nazem Kadri: Selke finalist
Mike Babcock: Jack Adams finalist

... not out of the realm of possibility.

Selke conversation for Kadri is a bit aggressive.

Yeah, I just looked at goalies. There's a tonne of good ones out there. Naz is a poor man's Selke finalist then. Auston has a shot and if we make the playoffs Babs deserves a look.

 

[Zee]

Auston Matthews: Calder finalist
Frederik Andersen: Vezina finalist
Nazem Kadri: Selke finalist
Mike Babcock: Jack Adams finalist

... not out of the realm of possibility.

Selke conversation for Kadri is a bit aggressive.

Yeah, I just looked at goalies. There's a tonne of good ones out there. Naz is a poor man's Selke finalist then. Auston has a shot and if we make the playoffs Babs deserves a look.

Kadri isn't even the best defensive forward on the Leafs let alone the league. I know he's done well in his new shutdown role but c'mon.

With respect to Calder, like Nik said Leafs might have two finalists, but as it's going now I think it's more likely the finalists are Matthews, Laine and Werenski. There's still a lot of season to go though.

 

[disco]

Just looking at the Eastern Conference goal differentials:

1. Columbus +52
2. NY Rangers +35
3. Montreal + 28
4. Pittsburgh + 26
5. Washington +22
6. Toronto + 4
7. Tampa Bay +2
8. Boston - 2
9. Philadelphia - 4
10. Ottawa - 4

Wins and goal-differential line up a lot closer than they ever have before, now that every team spends pretty much the same $72-million in payroll. We can skate with everyone on that list, as evidenced by our competitive games against them, and I'd say only the top five are clearly better teams than us right now. Remarkable considering we're only one year removed from complete basement dwelling. That's the salary-cap era.

 

[freer]

One or two small pieces to be an excellent team.. IMO they can now be a playoff team.

 

[disco]

https://twitter.com/AdamDeSanti/status/829170911643365376

It's my understanding that the division winners play the wild card winners and the 2/3 in each division play each other. Is that correct?

So starting tomorrow it would be:

Washington vs Philadelphia
Montreal vs NY Rangers
Columbus vs Pittsburgh
Ottawa vs Toronto

Leafs will benefit from a weak Atlantic this year. Tampa and Florida should be there by now and they're not. Finishing second wild card means you get obliterated by Washington. Metro 2 vs 3 is crazy. Either Stanley Cup Champions or Record-Setter (almost) for straight wins is out first round.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

It's my understanding that the division winners play the wild card winners and the 2/3 in each division play each other. Is that correct?

So starting tomorrow it would be:

Washington vs Philadelphia
Montreal vs NY Rangers
Columbus vs Pittsburgh
Ottawa vs Toronto

Leafs will benefit from a weak Atlantic this year. Tampa and Florida should be there by now and they're not. Finishing second wild card means you get obliterated by Washington. Metro 2 vs 3 is crazy. Either Stanley Cup Champions or Record-Setter (almost) for straight wins is out first round.

It's also funny to think that an Atlantic team is better off finishing 2nd or 3rd as opposed to 1st. Gets you an easier first round opponent.

 

[Kin]

Crazy to think that even with a middling shootout record the Leafs would really be in the running for the #1 spot in the division.

 

[Zee]

There are 30 games left, and I'm actually starting to believe this is a playoff team.  Will I be disappointed?

 

[mr grieves]

There are 30 games left, and I'm actually starting to believe this is a playoff team.  Will I be disappointed?

Unless Andersen heats up, I think so.

They've got the talent needed to win, but, as has become the theme on the boards this season, they don't have the defense (whether play or personnel) to close games out. Much less discussed but I think the bigger problem is their slow starts, since they're incapable of battling back and winning. They've given away way too many points before the first intermission.

I don't know whether that's a result of them being deflated by a bad goal (or two), playing tentatively after some terrible defensive breakdowns, or some of strange decisions made by the coach (Smith on ice when chasing game), or a combination of those and other reasons... but they don't seem able to win if they (Matthews?) don't surprise their opponent and get a few on the board.

So, I've gone from 60-40 they make it to 60-40 they don't. 

Blown second-period leads
Games with 2P leads: 29 (51% GP; 3rd in league; peers: WSH, MIN, SJS)
Record: 21-1-7 (.724 W%; 26th in league; peers: DAL, PHI, DET)
Points "lost"* by blowing 2P leads: 9 (27th; peers: MIN, DET, CAR)
(*points lost = 2P leads x 2 - 2P W x 2 - 2P OTL)

Blown first periods
Games trailing after 1P: 18 (32% GP; 13th in league; peers: STL, EDM, PIT)
Record: 1-14-3 (.056 W%; 30th in league; peer: ANA, COL, MTL)
Points "lost"* after falling behind in 1P: 31 (26th; peers: WPG, VAN, DET)
(*points lost = 1P trailing x 2 - 1P W x 2 - 1P OTL)

 

[ZBBM]

Some of this blown-ness is on Babcock.  Or, more specifically, on management.  They are not managing the team in such a way as to maximize their chances of getting in this year.  Which is just as it should be.

As I noted in last night's GDT I hope they start selling off assets, at least 1 or 2 at the deadline, to send an unmistakable signal that just getting into the playoffs this year is not really the point.

 

[mr grieves]

I'm perfectly happy to tolerate that contribution to blown-ness. But there are plenty of line-up decisions that are contributing to it and probably not helping in the cause of inflating assets either. I don't think the two things are always mutually exclusive.

For example, giving Hunwick and Polak time off on the back-to-backs would probably increase the team's chances of winning those games and keep those two fresh (I think some of their best performances have come after being scratched or injured). Along the same lines, they'd look better as penalty killers if one of the regular forwards on the PK wasn't worst in the league at suppressing shots; the team would also be more likely to win games.

 

[Redleaf]

Here were my thoughts after last nights game. I think its appropriate to repost in this thread...

If they do continue on this current tail spin leading up to the trade deadline, I wonder if it changes the whole approach for the remainder of this season? Maybe the tank toggle gets switched back on and they wind up with another decent pick from it. Next season they could possibly start out a year wiser and hopefully a gear faster. And likely with more defensive punch. That would be my takeaway from what could be another losing season, should they slip down any further in the standings and miss out on the post season again. Its really not all doom and gloom, no matter how it shakes out this year.

 

[disco]

https://twitter.com/mirtle/status/835011131546693632
The fight to not get obliterated by Washington in the first round

 

[Zee]

https://twitter.com/mirtle/status/835011131546693632
The fight to not get obliterated by Washington in the first round

Eh, Washington is a huge favorite over whomever they face, but in hockey we all know a hot goalie can steal a series no matter the odds.  I'll never forget an average Habs team beating heavy favorites Washington and Pittsburgh because Halak played out of his mind.  You still have to play the games.  Washington also has that stigma of being a fantastic regular season team and then choking in the playoffs.  Sure it's a different team, but sometimes stuff like that gets into the players heads that have been around awhile.  Ovechkin/Backstrom the two most likely.

 

[disco]

https://twitter.com/JeffVeillette/status/843493149620260864

 

[disco]

Fun fact: the Leafs are tied 6th in the League for regulation losses with 23. Trailing only Washington, Pittsburgh, Columbus, Chicago and Minnesota. This team is competitive and takes it deep almost every game. And O/T in the playoffs is unlimited 5-on-5...

 

[Zee]

Fun fact: the Leafs are tied 6th in the League for regulation losses with 23. Trailing only Washington, Pittsburgh, Columbus, Chicago and Minnesota. This team is competitive and takes it deep almost every game. And O/T in the playoffs is unlimited 5-on-5...

15 losses in OT/SO though, man if they had only managed just to win half of those, say 7, the Leafs would be sitting with 88 points, just 2 off the division lead.

Edit: that's actually the difference between Habs and Leafs.  Habs only have 8 OT/SO losses.  They would have an identical record if Leafs had won 7 of those 15.