Trade deadline moves

[herman]

Honestly, a part of me is looking forward to never having to discuss Gardiner again. Some of this stuff makes my brain hurt.

I?ll miss him when he?s gone.

 

[Highlander]

Is he Jake Gardiner or close, not saying that at all

You've called Rosen a "good replacement" for Gardiner and said you "don't see him being any worse" than Jake. In no way are Rosen and Gardiner comparable. If Gardiner was traded, there's a pretty good chance Rosen STILL wouldn't be playing in the NHL. Babcock would just go with Rielly-Hainsey, Muzzin-Zaitsev, Dermott-Oz. And that's assuming he's dealt for picks and not another defenceman.

the fact of the matter is that Rosen is getting rave reviews for being the best D man on the Marlies and by a large factor.  Keefe regularly raves about him.

You could have literally said all of these things about Holl and Marincin during their play with the Marlies last season.

Fact is he's a 25-year old defenceman with 4 NHL games under his belt and 1 above average AHL season. To expect him to be anything more than a depth NHL guy just screams of homer-ism.

I hope I am right and he becomes a good player for the Leafs, only time will tell how it plays out.  The nice thing is we have a system in place where we can actually play a guy in the AHL for 2-4 years and let them develop under very good coaching.  Unlike the not so long ago days where anyone with potential was rushed onto the Leafs and destroyed as a result. Thats why Sandin will probably be a Marlie all of next year barring injury.

I think many of us think that Jake will be gone, which is in fact totally unrelated (as per Nik) to Rosen, so do we use Jake as our own rental, like we did with JVR and Bozie, Komarov or do we start to glean something back?  In my minds eye this is not our Stanley Cup run year, I think that's for next year and years after. If they make it to the 2nd or 3rd round then this season is a success. However much we all hope the Cup this year.

 

[ZBBM]

You know CTB and herman, much as you back Gardiner and want to shut down the conversation on trading him the question boils down to this: does it make sense to lose him for nothing this summer?  Is that responsible asset management?  Unless you seriously think that he'll get re-signed, that's the question before us. 

We should have learned that lesson last year.

Just watching the latest TBL highlights ... there's no way we should be self-renting anybody this year.

 

[Guilt Trip]

You know CTB and herman, much as you back Gardiner and want to shut down the conversation on trading him the question boils down to this: does it make sense to lose him for nothing this summer?  Is that responsible asset management?  Unless you seriously think that he'll get re-signed, that's the question before us. 

We should have learned that lesson last year.

Just watching the latest TBL highlights ... there's no way we should be self-renting anybody this year.

Agreed. Nobody walks for free. Trade him because we're not signing him.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

You know CTB and herman, much as you back Gardiner and want to shut down the conversation on trading him the question boils down to this: does it make sense to lose him for nothing this summer?  Is that responsible asset management?  Unless you seriously think that he'll get re-signed, that's the question before us.

I literally proposed a trade with him a few hours ago. I've never shut down any talks about trading him in this thread. I just don't like him being compared to an AHL defenceman.

But to answer your question, no I don't think we should trade him for picks/futures. The Leafs have been a top-5 team in the league for most of the season. Despite some bumps in the road come playoff time they will be a contender for the Cup. We can't just fold it up because Tampa looks really good. Losing him for nothing this summer will be unfortunate but that happens to good teams all the time. It's not like we're letting someone like Tavares walk too.

 

[ZBBM]

You know CTB and herman, much as you back Gardiner and want to shut down the conversation on trading him the question boils down to this: does it make sense to lose him for nothing this summer?  Is that responsible asset management?  Unless you seriously think that he'll get re-signed, that's the question before us.

I literally proposed a trade with him a few hours ago. I've never shut down any talks about trading him in this thread. I just don't like him being compared to an AHL defenceman.

But to answer your question, no I don't think we should trade him for picks/futures. The Leafs have been a top-5 team in the league for most of the season. Despite some bumps in the road come playoff time they will be a contender for the Cup. We can't just fold it up because Tampa looks really good. Losing him for nothing this summer will be unfortunate but that happens to good teams all the time. It's not like we're letting someone like Tavares walk too.

Dealing him is not folding.  He's not the key to beating Tampa, or Boston for that matter. 

EDIT: And yes, you're right, I was exaggerating and not being fair.  You haven't shut anything down, just expressed your opinion that the discussion has gotten tiresome.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Dealing him is not folding.  He's not the key to beating Tampa, or Boston for that matter. 

He's at worst our #3 defenceman, so I disagree with each statement you made there.

 

[ZBBM]

Dealing him is not folding.  He's not the key to beating Tampa, or Boston for that matter. 

He's at worst our #3 defenceman, so I think each statement you made there is wrong.

If we replace him with someone who's better defensively, then I think it actually improves their chances, though I still don't think we're a contender.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

If we replace him with someone who's better defensively, then I think it actually improves their chances, though I still don't think we're a contender.

Well, yeah. That's the crux of the matter right there. I think Gardiner, regardless of a wart here and there, is still good defensively. You and others do not. After 8 years of this I'm not going to bother trying to change your mind on that matter. Hence why I said I'm sorta looking forward to not having to have these debates.

So I agree that yes if we replace him with someone who's better defensively then that improves our chances to win. But we don't have a replacement like that on hand. Trading him for picks and futures makes the team significantly worse.

 

[Guilt Trip]

Dealing him is not folding.  He's not the key to beating Tampa, or Boston for that matter. 

He's at worst our #3 defenceman, so I think each statement you made there is wrong.

If we replace him with someone who's better defensively, then I think it actually improves their chances, though I still don't think we're a contender.

Agreed. A better defensive D man will improve the backend overall.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Agreed. A better defensive D man will improve the backend overall.

Again, yeah no one would refute that obviously. But how does trading Gardiner for picks do that?

 

[ZBBM]

If we replace him with someone who's better defensively, then I think it actually improves their chances, though I still don't think we're a contender.

Well, yeah. That's the crux of the matter right there. I think Gardiner, regardless of a wart here and there, is still good defensively. You and others do not. After 8 years of this I'm not going to bother trying to change your mind on that matter. Hence why I said I'm sorta looking forward to not having to have these debates.

So I agree that yes if we replace him with someone who's better defensively then that improves our chances to win. But we don't have a replacement like that on hand. Trading him for picks and futures makes the team significantly worse.

If you can acquire another d-man who's a defensive upgrade (and yes, we disagree on how hard that would be) for some other roster piece then you can afford to let him go for picks.

I think the Leafs need to be looking beyond this year to what a much better blueline would be.  For starters, it would have Zaitsev on the 3rd pairing, assuming you can't move his contract.

 

[Guilt Trip]

Agreed. A better defensive D man will improve the backend overall.

Again, yeah no one would refute that obviously. But how does trading Gardiner for picks do that?

That's what Dubas has to figure out. I think you would need another move unless Rosen or someone else is ready. I wouldn't let Jake walk for nothing tho. Can't keep letting assets walk unless you're all in like Tampa would be this year.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I think the Leafs need to be looking beyond this year to what a much better blueline would be.  For starters, it would have Zaitsev on the 3rd pairing, assuming you can't move his contract.

I think unless the Leafs move Zaitsev, we will almost certainly have a worse blue line next season than we do this season. Yes, that's an issue. But thanks to Zaitsev and Marleau it's almost unavoidable I think. That's partially why I don't want them to throw in the towel/actively make the team worse in this playoff run.

 

[ZBBM]

I think the Leafs need to be looking beyond this year to what a much better blueline would be.  For starters, it would have Zaitsev on the 3rd pairing, assuming you can't move his contract.

I think unless the Leafs move Zaitsev, we will almost certainly have a worse blue line next season than we do this season. Yes, that's an issue. But thanks to Zaitsev and Marleau it's almost unavoidable I think. That's partially why I don't want them to throw in the towel/actively make the team worse in this playoff run.

I guess this horse is just about dead but I don't think they will be worse next year.  Muzzin will be here for a whole season, for one ? that alone is an improvement.  And I expect there will be at least one other significant blueline trade, regardless of whether they deal Gardiner in the next week or let him walk.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

Is he Jake Gardiner or close, not saying that at all

You've called Rosen a "good replacement" for Gardiner and said you "don't see him being any worse" than Jake. In no way are Rosen and Gardiner comparable. If Gardiner was traded, there's a pretty good chance Rosen STILL wouldn't be playing in the NHL. Babcock would just go with Rielly-Hainsey, Muzzin-Zaitsev, Dermott-Oz. And that's assuming he's dealt for picks and not another defenceman.

the fact of the matter is that Rosen is getting rave reviews for being the best D man on the Marlies and by a large factor.  Keefe regularly raves about him.

You could have literally said all of these things about Holl and Marincin during their play with the Marlies last season.

Fact is he's a 25-year old defenceman with 4 NHL games under his belt and 1 above average AHL season. To expect him to be anything more than a depth NHL guy just screams of homer-ism.

I'm not a Jake Gardiner fan and I whole heartedly agree with this post.

 

[herman]

You know CTB and herman, much as you back Gardiner and want to shut down the conversation on trading him the question boils down to this: does it make sense to lose him for nothing this summer?  Is that responsible asset management?  Unless you seriously think that he'll get re-signed, that's the question before us.

I literally proposed a trade with him a few hours ago. I've never shut down any talks about trading him in this thread. I just don't like him being compared to an AHL defenceman.

But to answer your question, no I don't think we should trade him for picks/futures. The Leafs have been a top-5 team in the league for most of the season. Despite some bumps in the road come playoff time they will be a contender for the Cup. We can't just fold it up because Tampa looks really good. Losing him for nothing this summer will be unfortunate but that happens to good teams all the time. It's not like we're letting someone like Tavares walk too.

Holding onto your high performing (but expiring) assets is just what contending teams have to do sometimes. When we're rebuilding, the answer is much easier. When you're trying to push a good team over the finish line, the answer is much trickier. There's no blanket action that needs to be taken here; everything needs individual assessment.

As Carlton mentioned later on, if your assessment is that Gardiner is a net-loss to the Leafs chances of winning by staying on the team, of course you'd want to trade him away for some futures. If your assessment of Gardiner is that he is an integral part of what makes this team successful today, when today kind of really matters, then of course you'd hang onto him to the point of expiry because there is no replacing that value without throwing more money into the pot.

Asset management is a tool to maintain sustained contention, but the ultimate goal is to win at the end, so sometimes that means using up the whole asset in that attempt and then letting go and diverting the freed up space elsewhere.

To me, the real answer is always that value assessment and the result will depend on what's available and what's coming up as replacement. It looks like our front office is pursuing all the main possibilities (walk, trade, re-sign) to see what shakes loose as options and what will be a net-gain of value for today and the future.

 

[Kin]

Yeah, one of the things that struck me as particularly ridiculous is the idea that the Leafs are somehow in dire straits if they don't get assets back for Gardiner. It's something they literally "cannot afford" to have happen.

So assuming the return on Gardiner,  who again these people seem to think is such a mediocre defenseman that his being traded represents no substantial change in the team's fortunes, is within the realm of a late 1st and a middling prospect, how does not having that materially affect the long term outlook for the club?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I'd also say I don't think we can entirely rule out Gardiner walking right now. Yes it's very, very likely considering the cap situation. But the GM/coach/teammates/organization all love him. He's been here for 8 years now so he's presumably become very attached to the city/team. If Zaitsev/Brown and one of Johnsson/Kappy get traded and Gardiner's willing to take well below market value to stay (maybe he only does a 1-year deal at below $5mil, with a *nudge nudge* agreement for after) then who knows.

Some of you will scoff at that suggestion, but Gardiner's led the team in 5-on-5 ice time the past 3 seasons. If we assume that Zaitsev/Brown are already likely to be dealt regardless, then I don't think it's completely unreasonable to think that Babcock/Dubas would be willing to move another non-core piece to keep Gardiner on a good deal.

 

[ZBBM]

Asset management is a tool to maintain sustained contention, but the ultimate goal is to win at the end, so sometimes that means using up the whole asset in that attempt and then letting go and diverting the freed up space elsewhere.

Sure, it's a strategic decision.  My take, based on where the Leafs are, not just in relation to the Lightning but relative to Boston, is that they don't have a high chance of getting out of the first 2 rounds.  The whole defense corps, not just because of Gardiner's presence, is out of whack.  You have 3 of your top d guys (Rielly, Gardiner, Dermott) who play similar games and have similar strengths.  You have one guy (Muzzin) who is very good in a completely different way and complements that.  But then there is a deep dropoff and the end result is unbalanced pairings and a real problem defending against a heavy cycle or aggressive forechecking.

Dubas has done a great job setting the table with the forwards.  He's begun to address the backend.  It's not going to get fixed this season.  IMO until it does they aren't serious contenders.  So under that assessment it makes sense to trade Gardiner *if* you can get a decent return.  If not, then you keep him and hope he helps push you a little further in the tourney.