Trade Deadline

[Coco-puffs]

Which is clearly just a guess by an insider-adjacent person. The other one I saw referenced on reddit was a TSN off-camera employee who tweeted some deets, but I can't find it. He used to follow me for some reason, but has disappeared (Lou'd?). Kypreos was apparently also saying that the Leafs would need to start at Liljegren or they won't get any traction on a McDonagh trade.

Even calling Mirtle "insider-adjacent" sounds like quite the stretch. That guess also came prior to the actual return from Tampa became public and everyone at that point figured it was going to be a pretty massive haul for the Rangers. I just can't fathom how the Rangers could accept the prospects that they did from Tampa but demand that the Leafs give them Liljegren or Dermott.

As for the other one, you lost me at "on reddit".

I think everyone seems to be saying that the Leafs package of 1st, 2nd*, Brown/Kapanen, Grundstrom, and Bracco (or equivalent prospects like Johnsson, Korshkov etc) would have got it done. (* conditional 1st if they won the cup)  I don't see that at all and I'll explain why:

1.  Howden was a 1st round pick (higher pedigree than any of the prospects listed above) and is a CENTER projected to be a middle-six guy.
2.  Hajek is a 2nd round pick and is a DEFENSEMAN projected to be a 4/5 guy.  Furthermore, Rangers really insisted on him so maybe they see his upside as being higher.

All of our decent prospects are wingers except for Liljegren (counting Dermott as no longer a prospect btw).  Brooks is really our only C prospect of note and he doesn't have Howden's pedigree.

Furthermore Brown is NOT equivalent to Namestnikov and some of us (including me at first) said "ok Kapanen" instead.  Again, we are talking about wingers... but Namestnikov was drafted as a Center and played wing in TB primarily because they have lots of Centers (Stamkos, Point, Johnson).  In his first game as a Ranger, Vlad was playing center and that is where the Rangers see him.  Again, the value of middle-six wingers or middle-six winger prospects is not as high as centers and d-men.  So- I don't doubt for one second that given our lack of Center ice trade chips that Rangers would have wanted one of Dermott or Liljegren.  They weren't going to see a package of three wingers/winger prospects from the Leafs as anywhere equal to the package they got from TB which is NHL-Center, Center (prospect), D-man (prospect).

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Furthermore Brown is NOT equivalent to Namestnikov and some of us (including me at first) said "ok Kapanen" instead.  Again, we are talking about wingers... but Namestnikov was drafted as a Center and played wing in TB primarily because they have lots of Centers (Stamkos, Point, Johnson).  In his first game as a Ranger, Vlad was playing center and that is where the Rangers see him.  Again, the value of middle-six wingers or middle-six winger prospects is not as high as centers and d-men.  So- I don't doubt for one second that given our lack of Center ice trade chips that Rangers would have wanted one of Dermott or Liljegren.  They weren't going to see a package of three wingers/winger prospects from the Leafs as anywhere equal to the package they got from TB which is NHL-Center, Center (prospect), D-man (prospect).

I think you've made some good points here regarding the prospects Tampa gave up. One thing I'd point out is that we seem to be forgetting that Tampa didn't just trade for McDonagh. J.T. Miller came in the deal as well. If I had to break down the components of the trade I'd say that he was essentially traded one-for-one for Namestnikov. Friedman or somebody wrote that Tampa sent out an e-mail to the other teams saying that they were looking to move a centre for a natural winger, so this swap makes sense as they're of similar age and have close point totals. I'm not entirely sure how crucial this aspect of the trade was to New York in terms of getting the deal done. Namestnikov is 25 years old and the Rangers are rebuilding. I think if anything this swap was more beneficial to the Lightning since it gives them that natural winger they were looking for. I also just think that Miller is the better of those two players in general. He's really flown under the radar when talking about this trade.

I guess what I'm saying is that when we're trying to break this deal down into components like you did the Namestnikov for Miller part really isn't something we should consider too much. So Brown or Kapanen don't need to be the equivalent of Namestnikov, they'd be the equivalent of Howden. And even though yes Howden is a centre and those guys aren't Brown's NHL experience and Kapanen's higher upside would cancel out Howden's position bonus when I'm calculating their trade value.

Now, if the Rangers weirdly said "we have to trade Miller for a NHL centre in this trade as well" then yeah I would concede that we couldn't have competed with Tampa's offer.

 

[Kin]

One thing I'd point out is that we seem to be forgetting that Tampa didn't just trade for McDonagh. J.T. Miller came in the deal as well.

It really is remarkable how often a 24 year old coming off a 22 goal/56 point season is being seen as a valueless afterthought.

And while he may be a natural winger he seems to be taking a bunch of face-offs this year and was winning them at a pretty good clip.

 

[Kin]

They weren't going to see a package of three wingers/winger prospects from the Leafs as anywhere equal to the package they got from TB which is NHL-Center, Center (prospect), D-man (prospect).

It really is remarkable just how much I'm starting to hate that Korshkov pick.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

They weren't going to see a package of three wingers/winger prospects from the Leafs as anywhere equal to the package they got from TB which is NHL-Center, Center (prospect), D-man (prospect).

It really is remarkable just how much I'm starting to hate that Korshkov pick.

Starting?

 

[Kin]

Starting?

You'll notice I'm no longer making "Haha, he's old" jokes.

 

[rdowdall]

Starting?

You'll notice I'm no longer making "Haha, he's old" jokes.

I fail to see what your feelings about Highlander have to do with this.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Starting?

You'll notice I'm no longer making "Haha, he's old" jokes.

Well I mean 26 isn't really that old.

 

[Zee]

They weren't going to see a package of three wingers/winger prospects from the Leafs as anywhere equal to the package they got from TB which is NHL-Center, Center (prospect), D-man (prospect).

It really is remarkable just how much I'm starting to hate that Korshkov pick.

But he plays for Yaroslavl Lokomotiv.

Everybody's doing a brand-new dance, now
(Come on baby, do the Lokomotiv)
I know you'll get to like it if you give it a chance now
(Come on baby, do the Lokomotiv)
My little baby sister can do it with me
It's easier than learning your a-b-c's
So come on, come on, do the Lokomotiv with me

 

[herman]

When every little mixup or mishap from trying to execute winds up in the back of your net, it's deflating in a game and cumulative over the course of a season +.

For a guy who supposedly loves data over the cliche you sure revert to the cliche whenever it's needed to insulate this management group from criticism.

Probably because I don't feel it is an unsubstantiated cliche. And supposedly is right, as I've also never purported to love data over cliche (or traditional views). If it happens to be the way I see it, regardless of which side it aligns with, that's what I'll write.

Maybe it sounds like I'm feeling protective of this management group, but I wasn't interested in us betting the farm on McDonagh or even Karlsson at this deadline. I may have also been the first to piss on the Martin signing so it's not like I have unrestrained praise for everything they're doing.

 

[Kin]

But he plays for Yaroslavl Lokomotiv.

I've always been partial to Chelyabinsk Traktor.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I may have also been the first to piss on the Martin signing so it's not like I have unrestrained praise for everything they're doing.

Woah woah woah, I'd like to make it abundantly clear that I was the first one to piss on the Martin contract, by about 8.5 minutes.

 

[Kin]

Probably because I don't feel it is an unsubstantiated cliche.

Really? So you think the difference between a good NHL goalie and a not very good NHL goalie is that playing the not very good one means that every single mistake results in a goal? That in a league where the difference between a good goalie and a not good goalie is 15 goals out of 1000 shots it's not just a question of degree?

Or do you not think young forwards/defensemen can learn to win in spite of not very good goaltending behind them at the beginning? Because there's a few Stanley Cup banners in Chicago that would probably beg to differ.

As I said in the post you quoted, lots of good teams have been built by putting the forwards in place first(or the defense). Lots of good teams overcame the adversity of wonky goaltending. There just isn't evidence that starting with a good goalie is any more or less effective than any other method of team construction.

 

[herman]

I may have also been the first to piss on the Martin signing so it's not like I have unrestrained praise for everything they're doing.

Woah woah woah, I'd like to make it abundantly clear that I was the first one to piss on the Martin contract, by about 8.5 minutes.

I couched that with a 'may have' because I wasn't going to check the data.

 

[Frank E]

Probably because I don't feel it is an unsubstantiated cliche.

Really? So you think the difference between a good NHL goalie and a not very good NHL goalie is that playing the not very good one means that every single mistake results in a goal? That in a league where the difference between a good goalie and a not good goalie is 15 goals out of 1000 shots it's not just a question of degree?

Or do you not think young forwards/defensemen can learn to win in spite of not very good goaltending behind them at the beginning? Because there's a few Stanley Cup banners in Chicago that would probably beg to differ.

As I said in the post you quoted, lots of good teams have been built by putting the forwards in place first(or the defense). Lots of good teams overcame the adversity of wonky goaltending. There just isn't evidence that starting with a good goalie is any more or less effective than any other method of team construction.

Well, 15 goals per 1000 shots averages out to .45 goals per game, given an average of 30 shots.

 

[Kin]

Well, 15 goals per 1000 shots averages out to .45 goals per game, given an average of 30 shots.

Sure, but even that is working under the premise that SV% is an entirely defense-independent number which it probably isn't. Even such, it doesn't translate to "every" mistake.

 

[L K]

I may have also been the first to piss on the Martin signing so it's not like I have unrestrained praise for everything they're doing.

Woah woah woah, I'd like to make it abundantly clear that I was the first one to piss on the Martin contract, by about 8.5 minutes.

Fake News

The [...] brightside to this is hope [...].

 

[L K]

They weren't going to see a package of three wingers/winger prospects from the Leafs as anywhere equal to the package they got from TB which is NHL-Center, Center (prospect), D-man (prospect).

It really is remarkable just how much I'm starting to hate that Korshkov pick.

Don't knock Korshkov.  He's the fourth leading Leaf associated player on his team.

 

[Kin]

They weren't going to see a package of three wingers/winger prospects from the Leafs as anywhere equal to the package they got from TB which is NHL-Center, Center (prospect), D-man (prospect).

It really is remarkable just how much I'm starting to hate that Korshkov pick.

Don't knock Korshkov.  He's the fourth leading Leaf associated player on his team.

I'm going to crawl in bed with a bottle of amaretto. Good day.

 

[rdowdall]

They weren't going to see a package of three wingers/winger prospects from the Leafs as anywhere equal to the package they got from TB which is NHL-Center, Center (prospect), D-man (prospect).

It really is remarkable just how much I'm starting to hate that Korshkov pick.

Don't knock Korshkov.  He's the fourth leading Leaf associated player on his team.

I'm going to crawl in bed with a bottle of amaretto. Good day.

Careful.  You may wake up with a bottle of scotch.