Training Camp Thread - Currently with Marner now

[Coco-puffs]

So how are they going to fit in a player for 300k?

It's prorated at the deadline, so it becomes the equivalent of ~$1.2M. It's also buffer for short-term injury call ups, etc.

No its not.  LTIR space is not pro-rated like regular cap space. 

example:

Cap 81.5 Million
Roster amount on Day x:  80.5 Million
Accumulated Hit:  80.5 * 1/181 (can't remember the number of days)
Accumulated Space:  1M * 1/181
At the deadline (say 60 days left in season) you'd be able to exceed the cap by 660k based on the accumulate space (assuming you stayed at 80.5M all season), so your daily cap hit could be 82.16 M the rest of the season.

Roster amount on Day x:  91.5M (LTIR allows you exceed by 10.55M, but you've only used 10M)
Accumulated Hit:  81.5M * 1/181
Accumulate Space:  0
If you stay in LTIR all season you've accumulated no space.  But each day of the year, you can exceed the cap by the amount calculated when you place the player on LTIR (which the Leafs will absolutely maximize down to as many dollars as they can when they place Horton/Clarkson on LTIR)

 

[bustaheims]

No its not.  LTIR space is not pro-rated like regular cap space. 

Like I said, the Leafs have the full amount of Clarkson's and Horton's contracts available for them as overages at the end of the season, regardless of how or when it's used. Since it's not calculated daily, the total amount is available to them at all times, and it's factored in at the end of the season when the league does their final cap calculations. It's been covered many times at many trade deadlines, and it's opened up quite a bit of potential space for teams over the years. If they still have enough room to fit in a player who's remaining cap hit for the season is $300K, they can do so.

 

[Coco-puffs]

No its not.  LTIR space is not pro-rated like regular cap space. 

Like I said, the Leafs have the full amount of Clarkson's and Horton's contracts available for them as overages at the end of the season, regardless of how or when it's used. Since it's not calculated daily, the total amount is available to them at all times, and it's factored in at the end of the season when the league does their final cap calculations. It's been covered many times at many trade deadlines, and it's opened up quite a bit of potential space for teams over the years. If they still have enough room to fit in a player who's remaining cap hit for the season is $300K, they can do so.

https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/mapleleafs/cap-tracker/2018

Leafs had two players on LTIR two years ago all season- Lupul and Horton.  They totalled 10.55M in salary.

Notice how they used only 5.7M over the course of the season.  Yet they had $0 final cap space?  Yes, their daily cap hit fluctuated based on who was on the roster but because they spent all 186 days in LTIR they had zero space.

EDIT:  The only way to accumulate any cap space is to drop below the BLACK line on those daily hit graphs.  Ie, to drop entirely below the Upper Limit, like the Red Wings did after they sold at the deadline the same year:

https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/redwings/cap-tracker/2018

 

[bustaheims]

https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/mapleleafs/cap-tracker/2018

Leafs had two players on LTIR two years ago all season- Lupul and Horton.  They totalled 10.55M in salary.

Notice how they used only 5.7M over the course of the season.  Yet they had $0 final cap space?  Yes, their daily cap hit fluctuated based on who was on the roster but because they spent all 186 days in LTIR they had zero space.

That's because LTIR is a use it or lose is credit. They didn't use all of it. That doesn't mean it wasn't available to them until the end of the season. They could added almost $5M in total daily cap hits that season, and would still have been fine.

 

[Coco-puffs]

https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/mapleleafs/cap-tracker/2018

Leafs had two players on LTIR two years ago all season- Lupul and Horton.  They totalled 10.55M in salary.

Notice how they used only 5.7M over the course of the season.  Yet they had $0 final cap space?  Yes, their daily cap hit fluctuated based on who was on the roster but because they spent all 186 days in LTIR they had zero space.

That's because LTIR is a use it or lose is credit. They didn't use all of it. That doesn't mean it wasn't available to them until the end of the season. They could added almost $5M in total daily cap hits that season, and would still have been fine.

Let be clear.  The problem is, based on the projected roster, that only 21 guys will fit under the LTIR created space once Hyman and Dermott return.  If you swap out Hutch for Domingue, that drops to 20 guys.

Dropping to 20 guys for a few days DOES NOT mean the space between your cap hit that day and the LTIR maximum can get accumulated to be used on another day.

 

[Coco-puffs]

Furthermore, running a roster of 20 guys just so we can marginally upgrade from Hutch to Louis opens up the risk that ANY player that has a minor injury means we are shorthanded that night.  At least with Hutch, you'd need two guys to be out with minor injuries before we are shorthanded that night.

 

[ZBBM]

Is he?  Or is he considerably better?

He had a .908 save percentage last season in 26 games. Among goalie who played 25+ games that put him 35th. 31st in GAA. All while playing on the best (regular season) team the league has seen in years. That's really not anything to get excited about.

OK, thanks.  They need to keep looking, then.

 

[Zee]

Don't worry, we'll pick up Sparks off waivers when Vegas puts him on.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

For what it's worth, I believe Coco's read on the LTIR situation here is correct.

Looking at the Leafs cap situation in 17/18, when they were in LTIR all season like they will be now, is actually a good way to illustrate this. And thankfully that's something we're able to do because of archive.org's wayback machine.

According to capfriendly, the day before the trade deadline the Leafs were listed as having $6,423,334 in cap space, or unused LTIR space. This is roughly what it hovered at all season long. Meanwhile, the Coyotes were listed as having a massive $74,275,988 in cap space at the deadline, because they were under the cap all year long and were accumulated their unused cap space. So the Leafs could have acquired one $6mil player at the deadline, while the Coyotes could have acquired ten $7mil players.

On trade deadline day, the Leafs acquired Plekanec. Per Capfriendly, their cap space/unsed LTIR space dropped to $3,423,334. That's of course a difference of $3mil, which is exactly what Plekanec's AAV was. The full amount of his AAV was subtracted from what the Leafs had available, not just his AAV divided by the number of days left in the season.

So that tells me cap space doesn't accrue when you're into LTIR. You can't "save" it, you can't bank it. And because of that, a players full season AAV number is what matters at any point in the season when you're in LTIR, not just their remaining daily numbers.

With a full/healthy roster the Leafs will probably have under $100k in unused LTIR space IIRC. That number will stay the same throughout the season and even at the deadline. The Leafs won't be able to make any moves at or near the deadline to improve the team without shedding salary at the same time.

 

[Coco-puffs]

For what it's worth, I believe Coco's read on the LTIR situation here is correct.

Looking at the Leafs cap situation in 17/18, when they were in LTIR all season like they will be now, is actually a good way to illustrate this. And thankfully that's something we're able to do because of archive.org's wayback machine.

According to capfriendly, the day before the trade deadline the Leafs were listed as having $6,423,334 in cap space, or unused LTIR space. This is roughly what it hovered at all season long. Meanwhile, the Coyotes were listed as having a massive $74,275,988 in cap space at the deadline, because they were under the cap all year long and were accumulated their unused cap space. So the Leafs could have acquired one $6mil player at the deadline, while the Coyotes could have acquired ten $7mil players.

On trade deadline day, the Leafs acquired Plekanec. Per Capfriendly, their cap space/unsed LTIR space dropped to $3,423,334. That's of course a difference of $3mil, which is exactly what Plekanec's AAV was. The full amount of his AAV was subtracted from what the Leafs had available, not just his AAV divided by the number of days left in the season.

So that tells me cap space doesn't accrue when you're into LTIR. You can't "save" it, you can't bank it. And because of that, a players full season AAV number is what matters at any point in the season when you're in LTIR, not just their remaining daily numbers.

With a full/ healthy roster of 21 players the Leafs will probably have under $100k in unused LTIR space IIRC. That number will stay the same throughout the season and even at the deadline. The Leafs won't be able to make any moves at or near the deadline to improve the team without shedding salary at the same time.

Very good way of explaining it.  Just one correction above.  When Hyman returns, we will be very close to our LTIR limit with just 21 players on the roster.

 

[Coco-puffs]

Oh and by the way, some roster permutations will only allow 20 players on the roster when everyone is healthy:

Matthews 11634 Rielly 5000 Andersen 5000
Tavares 11000 Muzzin 4000 Hutch 700
Marner 10983 Ceci 4500
Nylander 6962.366 Barrie 2750 Kessel 1200
Kerfoot 3500 Dermott 863.333
Johnsson 3400 Sandin 894.167
Kapanen 3200
Hyman 2250
Mikheyev 925
Moore 775
Petan 775
Spezza 700

Total (in thousands) 81011.866

Not enough room for a 21st there.

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/mackinawstats/status/1175139812573089793

Analytics!

 

[ZBBM]

Don't worry, we'll pick up Sparks off waivers when Vegas puts him on.

eep

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Very good way of explaining it.  Just one correction above.  When Hyman returns, we will be very close to our LTIR limit with just 21 players on the roster.

Yeah, I shouldn't have used "full" there. I meant just healthy. A 21-man roster with Dermott and Hyman healthy/active leaves us with about $100k in space, depending on which cuts are made.

 

[disco]

Don't worry, we'll pick up Sparks off waivers when Vegas puts him on.

eep

What's the cap-hit on the .880% backup saying "we need to play with more emotion" :

 

[disco]

https://twitter.com/mackinawstats/status/1175139812573089793

Analytics!

"Play game REAL tonight team!!! Gonna ... guys! Yeah, TIME PLAYED!!!"

I used them all in order to make Babs yelling in a hockey drill.

 

[Chris]

https://twitter.com/mackinawstats/status/1175139812573089793

Analytics!

A bit surprised to not see either "gud" or "pro" in there.

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/mackinawstats/status/1175141505901748225

He doesn?t talk about professionalism much after games.

 

[Phileas Fogg]

No "shiny", "metal" and "daffodil" in the list?

 

[rdowdall]

Oh and by the way, some roster permutations will only allow 20 players on the roster when everyone is healthy:

Matthews 11634 Rielly 5000 Andersen 5000
Tavares 11000 Muzzin 4000 Hutch 700
Marner 10983 Ceci 4500
Nylander 6962.366 Barrie 2750 Kessel 1200
Kerfoot 3500 Dermott 863.333
Johnsson 3400 Sandin 894.167
Kapanen 3200
Hyman 2250
Mikheyev 925
Moore 775
Petan 775
Spezza 700

Total (in thousands) 81011.866

Not enough room for a 21st there.

I think Kapanen could be traded if one of the younger players steps up and proves they can be effective on that third line.  They might just be evaluating at this point.