Unofficial 2013-2014 Armchair GM Thread

[Redleaf]

Yeah, it would be tight, but if they really have aspirations of contending, I think they need to address that issue. Maybe I'm wrong and one of Jake or Morgan slips in there, but I'm thinking not yet, certainly on the defensive end of things.

They need to be patient too, the Leafs aren't one year away from contending. I think Rielly is going to be a steal two years from now and a big cap hit in three, hopefully worth every penny... maybe it's Jake that takes a step up next year, I think it's his turn but if not the Leafs should really remain as calm as possible here...

This.

Way too many fans expecting big things from this team NOW. The teams weakest link is at D, mainly because 2 rookies are logging big minutes, and learning how to play in their own end against the best players in the world. Nonis either trades Reilly and Gardiner for veteran defensemen, or continue to take their lumps and stay patient. I'm for the latter.

Gardiner isn't a rookie and has 154 games in the league, and Gardiner has the best possession rating among Leafs D, meaning he's driving play better than the rest of the D.  Gardiner isn't a problem.

154 games is still pretty raw, and he hasn't learned the defensive side of the game well enough yet. Defensemen generally take longer to make the adjustment to the NHL than forwards, unless their name is Drew Doughty.

 

[bustaheims]

Way too many fans expecting big things from this team NOW. The teams weakest link is at D, mainly because 2 rookies are logging big minutes, and learning how to play in their own end against the best players in the world. Nonis can either trade Reilly and Gardiner for veteran defensemen, or continue to take their lumps and stay patient. I'm for the latter, and Im not expecting too much for at least 2 more seasons.

No. The team's weakest link is team defence, not the defencemen. There's a significant difference between the two. Until they change the way they play defence as a group - meaning all 5 players on the ice - changing the players isn't going to make a positive difference.

 

[Redleaf]

Way too many fans expecting big things from this team NOW. The teams weakest link is at D, mainly because 2 rookies are logging big minutes, and learning how to play in their own end against the best players in the world. Nonis can either trade Reilly and Gardiner for veteran defensemen, or continue to take their lumps and stay patient. I'm for the latter, and Im not expecting too much for at least 2 more seasons.

No. The team's weakest link is team defence, not the defencemen.

Its actually both. Team defense starts with individuals that can consistently win the battles along the boards and keep the puck out of their own end. Those battles start with the D needing to win the majority of them, then the forwards helping out when needed. But having a few guys unable to do the initial work puts too much pressure on everyone else to do it for them.

 

[bustaheims]

Its actually both. Team defense starts with individuals that can consistently win the battles along the boards and keep the puck out of their own end. Those battles start with the D needing to win the majority of them, then the forwards helping out when needed. But having a few guys unable to do the initial work puts too much pressure on everyone else to do it for them.

Actually, team defence starts with puck possession and keeping the puck out of the defensive end, which falls on everyone, but, predominantly, the forwards. They're the ones that need to win more puck battles. Not in the defensive end, but in the offensive one. That's how you keep shots against - and, consequently, goals against - down. The team needs to force the other team to make mistakes with the puck, and that also starts in the offensive end, with an aggressive forecheck that forces the other team to make rushed decisions and poor choices, and leads to turnovers in the Leafs' favour. The best defence isn't played in the defensive zone.

 

[Redleaf]

Its actually both. Team defense starts with individuals that can consistently win the battles along the boards and keep the puck out of their own end. Those battles start with the D needing to win the majority of them, then the forwards helping out when needed. But having a few guys unable to do the initial work puts too much pressure on everyone else to do it for them.

Actually, team defence starts with puck possession and keeping the puck out of the defensive end, which falls on everyone, but, predominantly, the forwards. They're the ones that need to win more puck battles. Not in the defensive end, but in the offensive one. That's how you keep shots against - and, consequently, goals against - down. The team needs to force the other team to make mistakes with the puck, and that also starts in the offensive end, with an aggressive forecheck that forces the other team to make rushed decisions and poor choices, and leads to turnovers in the Leafs' favour. The best defence isn't played in the defensive zone.

Actually, its the team that wins the draw that??never mind?..

 

[bustaheims]

Actually, its the team that wins the draw that??never mind?..

Actually, it's what happens after the draw that's most important.

 

[Redleaf]

Actually, its the team that wins the draw that??never mind?..

Actually, it's what happens after the draw that's most important.

No s&%t.

I get that team defense is a team wide thing, but Toronto just doesn't have the horses to be that good at it. Plain and simple. They need more, better two-way players to implement that type of game. Carlyle isnt going to turn Nazem Kadri into Pavel Datsyuk. No coach can. He isn't going to turn this team into the 1990s New Jersey Devils. He just isn't. A coaching change won't either.

 

[bustaheims]

I get that team defense is a team wide thing, but Toronto just doesn't have the horses to be that good at it. Plain and simple. They need more, better two-way players to implement that type of game. Carlyle isnt going to turn Nazem Kadri into Pavel Datsyuk. No coach can. He isn't going to turn this team into the 1990s New Jersey Devils. He just isn't.

He doesn't have to do anything like that. He just has to implement a system that actually plays to the team's strengths. Wilson got better defensive play from a similar group of forwards. Fix the strategy first. Deal with the talent after that. Doing it the other way around doesn't get you anywhere. This team may not have the horses to be an elite defensive squad, but they absolutely have the talent to be an average one, and Carlyle has them playing in a way that has left them far from that.

You can point to the extremes all you want, but, you're the only one in this discussion that's doing that. The rest of us are just looking for the team to get closer to being average defensively.

 

[Redleaf]

I get that team defense is a team wide thing, but Toronto just doesn't have the horses to be that good at it. Plain and simple. They need more, better two-way players to implement that type of game. Carlyle isnt going to turn Nazem Kadri into Pavel Datsyuk. No coach can. He isn't going to turn this team into the 1990s New Jersey Devils. He just isn't.

He doesn't have to do anything like that. He just has to implement a system that actually plays to the team's strengths. Wilson got better defensive play from a similar group of forwards. Fix the strategy first. Deal with the talent after that. Doing it the other way around doesn't get you anywhere. This team may not have the horses to be an elite defensive squad, but they absolutely have the talent to be an average one, and Carlyle has them playing in a way that has left them far from that.

You can point to the extremes all you want, but, you're the only one in this discussion that's doing that. The rest of us are just looking for the team to get closer to being average defensively.

But at what expense? I don't think this team is talented enough as is, to add a deep defensive game to its repertoire and still put up the type of offense that is helping them win games this year. And, is it worth the risk of it drying up the offense for an 'average defense' as you put it?

This team will find its defensive game in time. Nonis will tweak the D, the youngsters will mature, and they will get better. What's the hurry anyways? This team won't be ready to challenge for at least 2-3 more years. That sounds just about right for all the things Ive mentioned to take place.

 

[bustaheims]

But at what expense? I don't think this team is talented enough as is, to add a deep defensive game to its repertoire and still put up the type of offense that is helping them win games this year. And, is it worth the risk of it drying up the offense for an 'average defense' as you put it?

This team will find its defensive game in time. Nonis will tweak the D, the youngsters will mature, and they will get better. What's the hurry anyways? This team won't be ready to challenge for at least 2-3 more years. That sounds just about right for all the things Ive mentioned to take place.

Do you honestly believe that a better defensive game, led by an aggressive puck pursuit that forces turnovers will negatively impact the offence? Will having the puck more lead to them somehow scoring less? I'm pretty sure that's not the way it works. No one here is suggesting they play the trap or anything like that. They're already playing a passive defensive system. It's not working for them. Another passive system isn't going to help. Having an average defensive performance, with the goaltending they're getting, would put them in the top 8 in terms of goals against. Instead, they're down near the bottom.

As for the hurry . . . well, the hurry comes from not wanting to see the team sacrifice some of its top young players to bring in guys that are more "Carlyle types." There's enough talk about Carlyle not being particularly enamoured with Kadri and Gardiner that should worry anyone that him sticking around will lead to them being moved out to "tweak the D" in a futile effort to make Carlyle's flawed system (a system that showed the very same flaws in the final few seasons of his tenure in Anaheim) somehow successful. I don't want Nonis to tweak the D for Carlyle's system. I want the strategies to be fixed before the talent is addressed, because, right now, the strategies are the biggest problem. This team is on pace to be among the worst in the history of the league when it comes to shots allowed. They're expansion team bad on the defensive side of the puck, and they're much more talented than that.

 

[Redleaf]

But at what expense? I don't think this team is talented enough as is, to add a deep defensive game to its repertoire and still put up the type of offense that is helping them win games this year. And, is it worth the risk of it drying up the offense for an 'average defense' as you put it?

This team will find its defensive game in time. Nonis will tweak the D, the youngsters will mature, and they will get better. What's the hurry anyways? This team won't be ready to challenge for at least 2-3 more years. That sounds just about right for all the things Ive mentioned to take place.

Do you honestly believe that a better defensive game, led by an aggressive puck pursuit that forces turnovers will negatively impact the offence? Will having the puck more lead to them somehow scoring less? I'm pretty sure that's not the way it works. No one here is suggesting they play the trap or anything like that. They're already playing a passive defensive system. It's not working for them. Another passive system isn't going to help. Having an average defensive performance, with the goaltending they're getting, would put them in the top 8 in terms of goals against. Instead, they're down near the bottom.

As for the hurry . . . well, the hurry comes from not wanting to see the team sacrifice some of its top young players to bring in guys that are more "Carlyle types." There's enough talk about Carlyle not being particularly enamoured with Kadri and Gardiner that should worry anyone that him sticking around will lead to them being moved out to "tweak the D" in a futile effort to make Carlyle's flawed system (a system that showed the very same flaws in the final few seasons of his tenure in Anaheim) somehow successful. I don't want Nonis to tweak the D for Carlyle's system. I want the strategies to be fixed before the talent is addressed, because, right now, the strategies are the biggest problem. This team is on pace to be among the worst in the history of the league when it comes to shots allowed. They're expansion team bad on the defensive side of the puck, and they're much more talented than that.

You make it sound like there's just a switch that Carlyle has to pull to make all the teams problems disappear.

Yes. I honestly believe that if Carlyle had this team playing against their strengths (which is fast skating, high tempo offense) and have them concentrate their efforts on a defense-first style game, their offense could suffer and they could find themselves in a lower position in the standings and possibly out of a playoff spot.

This team currently doesn't have enough talent to compete defensively against most of the other playoff teams.  I think Carlyle and Nonis realize this, and have them playing a style that, while it may not look so good, is getting them more wins than loses.

 

[bustaheims]

Yes. I honestly believe that if Carlyle had this team playing against their strengths (which is a fast skating, high tempo offense) and have them concentrate their efforts on a defense-first style game, their offense could suffer and they could find themselves in a lower position in the standings and possibly out of a playoff spot.

This team currently doesn't have enough talent to compete defensively against most of the playoff teams.  I think Carlyle and Nonis realize this, and have them playing a style that, while it may not look so good, is getting them more wins than loses.

Again, no one, other than you, is talking about defence first, but, they are absolutely not playing the system you think they are. They are EXTREMELY passive. They do not look like a fast skating, up tempo offensive team. A team like that would be in on the forecheck on a regular basis, something the Leafs have been noticeably lacking this season. What Carlyle has them doing is coming back to the defensive zone and collapsing around the net. If they were in fact playing the system you think they are, they're defensive numbers would be much better, because they'd be causing a lot more turnovers and they'd have much better control of the puck. Their offence certainly wouldn't suffer from that. They are a passive, counter attack team right now when they should really be an aggressive attack team.

And, yeah, this team definitely has the talent to compete defensively with the other defensive teams. They may not be able to shut them down, but, they can certainly compete. They have more than enough talent to not be hemmed in their zone as frequently as they are. They have more than enough talent to not be outshot by more than 10 shots in a period on a regular basis. They have more than enough talent to not take half a period or more to get their 1st shot on goal on a regular basis.

Carlyle has them playing a style that, in his mind, should be minimizing their weaknesses. What I'm espousing is a system that actually maximizes their strength - which, as you've correctly identified, is speed. They played that way early last season, but, as the season wore on and they became more entrenched in Carlyle's system, that started to go away.

As for the switch . . . well, it's not that simple, no, but, I have my doubts Carlyle is capable of switching anything. He's making the exact same mistakes that cost him his job in Anaheim.

 

[Redleaf]

Yes. I honestly believe that if Carlyle had this team playing against their strengths (which is a fast skating, high tempo offense) and have them concentrate their efforts on a defense-first style game, their offense could suffer and they could find themselves in a lower position in the standings and possibly out of a playoff spot.

This team currently doesn't have enough talent to compete defensively against most of the playoff teams.  I think Carlyle and Nonis realize this, and have them playing a style that, while it may not look so good, is getting them more wins than loses.

Again, no one, other than you, is talking about defence first, but, they are absolutely not playing the system you think they are. They are EXTREMELY passive. They do not look like a fast skating, up tempo offensive team. A team like that would be in on the forecheck on a regular basis, something the Leafs have been noticeably lacking this season. What Carlyle has them doing is coming back to the defensive zone and collapsing around the net. If they were in fact playing the system you think they are, they're defensive numbers would be much better, because they'd be causing a lot more turnovers and they'd have much better control of the puck. Their offence certainly wouldn't suffer from that. They are a passive, counter attack team right now when they should really be an aggressive attack team.

And, yeah, this team definitely has the talent to compete defensively with the other defensive teams. They may not be able to shut them down, but, they can certainly compete. They have more than enough talent to not be hemmed in their zone as frequently as they are. They have more than enough talent to not be outshot by more than 10 shots in a period on a regular basis. They have more than enough talent to not take half a period or more to get their 1st shot on goal on a regular basis.

Carlyle has them playing a style that, in his mind, should be minimizing their weaknesses. What I'm espousing is a system that actually maximizes their strength - which, as you've correctly identified, is speed. They played that way early last season, but, as the season wore on and they became more entrenched in Carlyle's system, that started to go away.

As for the switch . . . well, it's not that simple, no, but, I have my doubts Carlyle is capable of switching anything. He's making the exact same mistakes that cost him his job in Anaheim.

You can call the style they play anything you want. The bottom line is they are winning with offense, and goaltending, and not with defense. In a perfect world, and with better defensive players, they could maximize play at both ends of the rink and look terrific doing so. I think they can eventually get there, but right now they are still winning games on the strength of those two factors. It probably won't win too many playoff rounds, but it may be their only chance until they either trade for better stay at home guys, or wait until some of their prospects mature. Like I said, I would imagine Nonis will try a little of both.

 

[bustaheims]

You can call the style they play anything you want. The bottom line is they are winning with offense, and goaltending, and not with defense. In a perfect world, and with better defensive players, they could maximize play at both ends of the rink and look terrific doing so. I think they can eventually get there, but right now they are still winning games on the strength of those two factors. It probably won't win too many playoff rounds, but it may be their only chance until they either trade for better stay at home guys, or wait until some of their prospects mature. Like I said, I would imagine Nonis will try a little of both.

And, as I keep telling you, a couple stay at home guys isn't going to help fix a strategic, style of play issue. They're just going to dilute the offensive talent. I mean, unless we're talking about help on the 4th line, in which case, they're not going to see any ice time, because Carlyle's bench management is absurd and he doesn't play his 4th line.

 

[Redleaf]

You can call the style they play anything you want. The bottom line is they are winning with offense, and goaltending, and not with defense. In a perfect world, and with better defensive players, they could maximize play at both ends of the rink and look terrific doing so. I think they can eventually get there, but right now they are still winning games on the strength of those two factors. It probably won't win too many playoff rounds, but it may be their only chance until they either trade for better stay at home guys, or wait until some of their prospects mature. Like I said, I would imagine Nonis will try a little of both.

And, as I keep telling you, a couple stay at home guys isn't going to help fix a strategic, style of play issue. They're just going to dilute the offensive talent. I mean, unless we're talking about help on the 4th line, in which case, they're not going to see any ice time, because Carlyle's bench management is absurd and he doesn't play his 4th line.

I don't know what else to tell you Busta, except you're wrong and I'm right.  ;D

 

[bustaheims]

I don't know what else to tell you Busta, except you're wrong and I'm right.  ;D

You're entitled to your opinion, but, you're wrong and I hate you.

 

[Coco-puffs]

Yeah, it would be tight, but if they really have aspirations of contending, I think they need to address that issue. Maybe I'm wrong and one of Jake or Morgan slips in there, but I'm thinking not yet, certainly on the defensive end of things.

They need to be patient too, the Leafs aren't one year away from contending. I think Rielly is going to be a steal two years from now and a big cap hit in three, hopefully worth every penny... maybe it's Jake that takes a step up next year, I think it's his turn but if not the Leafs should really remain as calm as possible here...

This.

Way too many fans expecting big things from this team NOW. The teams weakest link is at D, mainly because 2 rookies are logging big minutes, and learning how to play in their own end against the best players in the world. Nonis either trades Reilly and Gardiner for veteran defensemen, or continue to take their lumps and stay patient. I'm for the latter.

Gardiner isn't a rookie and has 154 games in the league, and Gardiner has the best possession rating among Leafs D, meaning he's driving play better than the rest of the D.  Gardiner isn't a problem.

Yet, Gardiner is a -4.  In comparison, the worst defenseman possession-wise is Carl Gunnarsson... and he's a +16 on the season.  Second worst is Phaneuf, and he's a +13.  BTW, Morgan Reilly is a -12 on the season, and almost has the same possession ratings as Gardiner.

Obviously, this shows how the quality of the chances is missed entirely in the calculation of shot-based possession statistics.  Using them as a way to say Jake Gardiner is not a problem is, well, problematic.  He still makes mistakes that young defensemen tend to make.  So does Franson, and so does Reilly.  Those errors are typically more glaring and end up in the back of our net.

I'm not advocating replacing Gardiner or Reilly with more stay at home types.  That is not what the Leafs need.  As they mature, this will hopefully improve. 

The whole team, in general, need to be less passive and use their speed more, but within the system in place.  Carlyle has a fairly young team and I think not getting caught running around chasing the puck in our own zone (being too aggressive) is probably a pretty good idea.  That said, the players need to take onus on themeselves to be more assertive in doing so- too often they are standing around watching and waiting.  They can be more assertive without being more aggressive, win puck battles and move the puck up the ice with speed.

Once they get into the offensive zone- well, that's a whole different matter.  I've never seen a team struggle so much with a simple cycle game.  Their possession numbers would be a whole lot higher if they could sustain more pressure. 

 

[Tigger]

Gardiner isn't a rookie and has 154 games in the league, and Gardiner has the best possession rating among Leafs D, meaning he's driving play better than the rest of the D.  Gardiner isn't a problem.

Just curious but do you think Gardiner is now a legitimate top 4? I don't think so yet, he still makes some real neophyte plays and sometimes is a problem, one you can live with given his skill set and experience, still.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Yeah, it would be tight, but if they really have aspirations of contending, I think they need to address that issue. Maybe I'm wrong and one of Jake or Morgan slips in there, but I'm thinking not yet, certainly on the defensive end of things.

They need to be patient too, the Leafs aren't one year away from contending. I think Rielly is going to be a steal two years from now and a big cap hit in three, hopefully worth every penny... maybe it's Jake that takes a step up next year, I think it's his turn but if not the Leafs should really remain as calm as possible here...

This.

Way too many fans expecting big things from this team NOW. The teams weakest link is at D, mainly because 2 rookies are logging big minutes, and learning how to play in their own end against the best players in the world. Nonis either trades Reilly and Gardiner for veteran defensemen, or continue to take their lumps and stay patient. I'm for the latter.

Gardiner isn't a rookie and has 154 games in the league, and Gardiner has the best possession rating among Leafs D, meaning he's driving play better than the rest of the D.  Gardiner isn't a problem.

Yet, Gardiner is a -4.  In comparison, the worst defenseman possession-wise is Carl Gunnarsson... and he's a +16 on the season.  Second worst is Phaneuf, and he's a +13.  BTW, Morgan Reilly is a -12 on the season, and almost has the same possession ratings as Gardiner.

Obviously, this shows how the quality of the chances is missed entirely in the calculation of shot-based possession statistics.  Using them as a way to say Jake Gardiner is not a problem is, well, problematic.  He still makes mistakes that young defensemen tend to make.  So does Franson, and so does Reilly.  Those errors are typically more glaring and end up in the back of our net.

Why should +/- tell me any of those things?  Using +/- to say Gardiner makes 'typically more glaring' errors that end up in the back of the Leafs net is somehow a better way to judge him?  Or is that just your eye test?  And you've compared all the other D and determined that Gardiner makes 'typically more glaring errors'?

Phaneuf and Gunnarsson are both riding high SH% at 5 on 5 - 11 and 10%, while Gardiner's is down at 7.6%.  All are getting on-ice SV% of .930-ish.  The last full season, Phaneuf's SH% was 7.3%, the on-ice SV% was .911 and he was a -10.  The last full season, Gardiner's SH% was 10%, on-ice SV% was .904 and he was a -2.

See how SH% fluctuates?  Did Phaneuf suddenly do something to bump up his SH%? Gardiner to drop it?  +/- will go up and down depending on luck such as this - neither player was worse because the goaltending in '11-'12 was not as good as today, but it affected Phaneuf's +/-, just like Gardiner not getting the breaks and having a 7.6 SH% this season compared to 10% in '11-'12 is contributing to his.

At 5 on 5, Gardiner has been on the ice for more goals for than against.  Overall, Gardiner has been on the ice for more goals for than against (59 to 51) and the 51 goals against when Gardiner is on the ice is the lowest among Leafs D who have played at least 1000 mins, and Gardiner has played the 2nd most minutes among D.  At 5 on 5, Gardiner has played the most minutes on the entire team yet has again been on the ice for the least number of goals against by D with 1000 mins.

 

[Champ Kind]

Remind me to do my homework before I take on Potvin.  Wow.