Wild @ Leafs - Jan. 3rd, 2:00pm - SNO, Fan 590

[CarltonTheBear]

Any team not named "Tampa Bay" has things to work on.

Even Tampa's been letting in 3 goals per game since December and Vasilevskiy isn't even playing at his best since returning from injury. He let in 5 goals in back-to-back games against Philly and Montreal last week, Tampa just won them both 6-5. Their simply outscoring their goaltending/defensive woes.

 

[Zee]

Do your numbers account for missing Nylander + Matthews?

No, cause the Leafs have both back and are still on pace.

Does that mean they've overachieved your expectation then?

No. With Matthews out they still had a traditional #1 center in Tavares so should have been at least as good as last year's center depth.  With Nylander out, Kapanen has stepped up large and provided some scoring that Nylander would have so that evens out.  With Nylander and Matthews both in, the team should be even better.

 

[herman]

With Nylander and Matthews both in, the team should be even better.

They have been.

https://twitter.com/draglikepull/status/1081187105794154496

Enjoy the game however you'd like, but honestly, a play by play, game by game emotional reaction would cause me psychological and physiological issues that I can do without. And this isn't directed at you specifically, Zee -- it looks like you're being dragged into its wake -- but one person constantly and ineffectually berating the team and coaching and refereeing for situational happenstance is making GDTs about as attractive and useful as YouTube comments or reddit or the Instagram comments of a player whose team just got ousted from the World Juniors.

This is a community and its quality and value are directly proportional to its members' output.

 

[Zee]

With Nylander and Matthews both in, the team should be even better.

They have been.

https://twitter.com/draglikepull/status/1081187105794154496

So that's good.  With those 2 out and guys like Kapanen (and to a lesser extent Johnsson) stepping up the team should have been at least as good as last year's 105 point team.  That being said, if Andersen is down for any amount of time that could seriously hurt the 2nd half of games.

 

[Deebo]

Yeah, I'm thinking there are a lot of people here who would be much happier following one of those Hockey teams that never has bad games.

I have to agree with this one.  The negativity is over the top.

Strangely I don't think the negativity was as high when the Leafs were ACTUALLY terrible. I guess that's the impact of having higher expectations. We were kind of happily fatalistic when we knew they'd be bad.

The GDTs used to be a really fun way to somewhat increase my enjoyment of watching the games by having some fairly light hearted interaction with other people cos most of the time I watch on my own at home. Sometimes now I feel like it's less fun to dip into the GDT when you see some of the completely over the top, almost satirical (not sure that's quite the right word but you know what I mean hopefully) reactions to things.

Yup, especially when there those who only seem to show up during bad stretches.

 

[Zee]

Yeah, I'm thinking there are a lot of people here who would be much happier following one of those Hockey teams that never has bad games.

I have to agree with this one.  The negativity is over the top.

Strangely I don't think the negativity was as high when the Leafs were ACTUALLY terrible. I guess that's the impact of having higher expectations. We were kind of happily fatalistic when we knew they'd be bad.

The GDTs used to be a really fun way to somewhat increase my enjoyment of watching the games by having some fairly light hearted interaction with other people cos most of the time I watch on my own at home. Sometimes now I feel like it's less fun to dip into the GDT when you see some of the completely over the top, almost satirical (not sure that's quite the right word but you know what I mean hopefully) reactions to things.

Yup, especially when there those who only seem to show up during bad stretches.

Maybe those "Leafs fans" are Sens or Habs burner accounts pretending to be Leafs fans so they only post negativity.  ;D

 

[Frank E]

Yeah, I'm thinking there are a lot of people here who would be much happier following one of those Hockey teams that never has bad games.

I have to agree with this one.  The negativity is over the top.

Strangely I don't think the negativity was as high when the Leafs were ACTUALLY terrible. I guess that's the impact of having higher expectations. We were kind of happily fatalistic when we knew they'd be bad.

The GDTs used to be a really fun way to somewhat increase my enjoyment of watching the games by having some fairly light hearted interaction with other people cos most of the time I watch on my own at home. Sometimes now I feel like it's less fun to dip into the GDT when you see some of the completely over the top, almost satirical (not sure that's quite the right word but you know what I mean hopefully) reactions to things.

Yup, especially when there those who only seem to show up during bad stretches.

Maybe those "Leafs fans" are Sens or Habs burner accounts pretending to be Leafs fans so they only post negativity.  ;D

More collision.

 

[Phileas Fogg]

I have to agree. The negativity is so ridiculous, primarily from one poster, that I can't enjoy the GDTs anymore. I understand that everyone's allowed a point of view, but it's gone past the point where moderation is required, imo.

The ignore function doesn't work, because the ignored account is constantly quoted.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

The ignore function doesn't work, because the ignored account is constantly quoted.

Just a general PSA here, because I don't think many people know of this function. But yes, you can put people on an ignore list. You can find it on your profile page, click the "modify profile" buttton, and then click buddies/ignore list. Or just follow this link: https://www.tmlfans.ca/community/index.php?action=profile;area=lists;sa=ignore;u=81

Although yes as pointed out it's not exactly perfect.

 

[Zee]

I have to agree. The negativity is so ridiculous, primarily from one poster, that I can't enjoy the GDTs anymore. I understand that everyone's allowed a point of view, but it's gone past the point where moderation is required, imo.

The ignore function doesn't work, because the ignored account is constantly quoted.

Yeah, ignore feature on SMF type boards isn't great.  I've seen other message boards where ignore is truly ignore. Once you ignore a poster you won't even know they posted, even if someone quotes them you'll just see a blank and then the message from the person you're not ignoring.

 

[Highlander]

I think we have the best offensive Leaf team ever assembled, not so for the defence at all. We have a great Goalie in Fredo but he is injured, questionable back up although Sparks has a good win ratio.

I have to have faith in Babcock and what he keeps calling "The Process",  yes he has a been a good defensive coach but defence has changed so much in the last years where it has become a speed game.

So what to do, perhaps we need some more physical defensemen, I liked what I saw in Borgman last year, he at least was hitting people,  Dermott has made some nice hip checks.  Until we get our D sorted its going to be a lot of wins by outscoring and some losses when we go cold on the goals or meet a goalie that stands on his head.

To rip this team on every loss is a mistake as I believe we are all on agreement that the D is the problem, its figuring out a solution that doesn't cost us one of our stars. 

 

[herman]

I think we have the best offensive Leaf team ever assembled, not so for the defence at all. We have a great Goalie in Fredo but he is injured, questionable back up although Sparks has a good win ratio.

I have to have faith in Babcock and what he keeps calling "The Process",  yes he has a been a good defensive coach but defence has changed so much in the last years where it has become a speed game.

So what to do, perhaps we need some more physical defensemen, I liked what I saw in Borgman last year, he at least was hitting people,  Dermott has made some nice hip checks.  Until we get our D sorted its going to be a lot of wins by outscoring and some losses when we go cold on the goals or meet a goalie that stands on his head.

To rip this team on every loss is a mistake as I believe we are all on agreement that the D is the problem, its figuring out a solution that doesn't cost us one of our stars.

There's a lot to agree with here Highlander.

I do have a question about more physical defensemen. What would make them better bets to win?

 

[ZBBM]

And other all stars complaining that they didn?t pick enough of our stars for the game haha

Yeah it's tough being a Leafs fan right now.

Nonetheless, this game was a template for the things they need to fix if they are going to get anywhere in the playoffs.  Fewer giveaways.  No 10-minute holes with no shots.  Much better defense from the forwards.

Some of this gets covered up if Andersen is on his game, but Hutchinson wasn't really the problem today.  In fact, he was a star in the 1st.

OTOH if Nylander uses this one as a springboard to finally get his game going, the loss will have been worth it in the long run.

Any team not named "Tampa Bay" has things to work on.

And as CTB mentioned, even them.

Still, I think it's a mistake to close our eyes and pretend that the defense (forwards and d together) in front of Andersen is good enough to not just win a round but seriously challenge for a Cup.  Puck possession is wonderful, but in clamped-down playoff hockey you sometimes win key games by out-defending the other side when they have the puck.  I am not confident that we have the players to do that.

 

[Highlander]

I think we have the best offensive Leaf team ever assembled, not so for the defence at all. We have a great Goalie in Fredo but he is injured, questionable back up although Sparks has a good win ratio.

I have to have faith in Babcock and what he keeps calling "The Process",  yes he has a been a good defensive coach but defence has changed so much in the last years where it has become a speed game.

So what to do, perhaps we need some more physical defensemen, I liked what I saw in Borgman last year, he at least was hitting people,  Dermott has made some nice hip checks.  Until we get our D sorted its going to be a lot of wins by outscoring and some losses when we go cold on the goals or meet a goalie that stands on his head.

To rip this team on every loss is a mistake as I believe we are all on agreement that the D is the problem, its figuring out a solution that doesn't cost us one of our stars.

There's a lot to agree with here Highlander.

I do have a question about more physical defensemen. What would make them better bets to win?

Herman, I remember physical hockey, Brian Glennie hip checks, Darcy T hitting everything that moved (all the time).  The checking/hitting game accelerated  in the playoffs, rock em sock em hits, everyone was finishing checks and the teams that did it best won....they simply won.
Yes the game has changed, but look at the Bruins, always hitting especially Marchand.  Its clear our super elite forwards where not built for the old game but we do need a couple of guys in our top 12 who can hit (I am not talking fighting here at all), guys that hit hard and finish checks. A guy like Marchment from the Marlies comes to mind. On D Dermott hands out some hits but not near enough,  the rest don't hit at all, when I saw Borgman in AZ last winter at least he was physical with people....lets face it if you know our are going to get hit hard it gets in your head. 
We need to get back to hard hitting hockey, we are not a figure skating team but a hockey team.

Would like to see guys like Rasanen develop, supposedly he loves to hit

 

[Kin]

In earlier eras lots of teams had physical players but the idea that the teams that won were the teams that were the most physical is just nonsense. Gretzky's Oilers, Lemieux's Penguins, Sakic's Avalanche teams...they didn't win because they outmuscled other teams.

 

[bustaheims]

In earlier eras lots of teams had physical players but the idea that the teams that won were the teams that were the most physical is just nonsense. Gretzky's Oilers, Lemieux's Penguins, Sakic's Avalanche teams...they didn't win because they outmuscled other teams.

Also, using the Bruins as support for a more physical team doesn't exactly speak to great success, either. The Bruins have won 2 playoff series in the past 5 seasons. An argument can be made they they wore themselves out by playing that heavy a physical style in the first round to barely squeak past our Leafs last spring.

What the team needs is to learn how to respond successfully when other teams bring a heavy physical game. They don't need to ramp up their physical play by any sort of significant margin.

 

[Phileas Fogg]

I think a lot of people think that the key to a physical team pressuring the defence is to acquire a more physical defence.

The best defense now is the ability to have players that can either reliably skate the puck out of the zone or pass it out. Teams/players that commit to an overly physical game are now constantly out of position.

The only arguement for a bit of a mix of size and strength is the ability to break up the cycle in the defensive end, but it can't be done at the expense of the lack of mobility/passing strength. I'm actually a little bit intrigued by Gudas in Philly as a potential late season add at what I would assume is lowish cost, who may be a decent bottom 4 addition. He's got better underlying stats than I would have thought, and could be a decent net-front/cycle breaking presence.

 

[IJustLurkHere]

I didn't say match Tampa, just closer to Tampa then the pack.  If Leafs had 2-3 more wins they'd be only 6 back of Tampa and further ahead of the rest.

I just don't understand where these standards/expectations are coming from. If the Leafs had 3 more wins they'd have 60 points in 40 games. That's a 123 point pace over 82 games. 3 teams have hit 120 points in the salary cap era. Nobody should have their expectations that high right now.

This is like looking at Marner and complaining that he doesn't have 63 points instead of 55.

Alright, they're on a 110 point pace right now, better than last year's 105.  I fully expected them to be better than 105 after adding Tavares and have the two number 1 lines + a true #2 center in Kadri playing in the 3 spot.  That's a luxury to have.  If they slip below last year's pace I'll start to get concerned.

I like this... >105 seems a pretty good benchmark for "don't panic" status.

Over the last 10 years, a handful of teams (at least 3 with a high water mark of 7) achieve >105 every year. Keeping in mind that points are a zero-sum game (i.e for any team to get a larger share, someone else needs a smaller share), and driven as much by the general competitiveness at the bottom end of the standings, top 5 would seem to be a good benchmark of being "elite", and in line with fan expectation.