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Your TML Rebuild Plan

Captain Phaneuf can't wait to start season:

http://espn.go.com/blog/nhl/post/_/id/39468/dion-phaneuf-wants-to-be-part-of-maple-leafs-rebuild
 
I get a kick out the tsn.ca link title:  Who Is Going to Replace Kessel's Goals?

Umm..no one?  That's kind of the idea here guys.
 
herman said:
My (hopeful) guess:

2015-16:
Lupul hits the IR in January and doesn't come back. Older expiring UFAs moved out by the deadline for 2-4th rd picks. Reimer is flipped for a 3rd and an older backup to a contender. Kadri and JvR are shopped, but Leafs will only move if the deal knocks our socks off (1st rd pick +). Hopefully we can package one of our remaining forwards (Holland, Frattin, Panik) with Robidas or Bozak for a 3rd + prospect + salary dump. Soshnikov, Bailey, Hyman, Leivo, Carrick, Loov, and Percy fill out the roster post deadline. Finish 3rd last despite the good bump in possession stats. MSM crows about how Corsi is flawed.

Kadri/JvR, if still around, are traded at the Draft for primo picks. We roll into the Draft with 12 picks and target high ceiling prospects as usual.
Click to expand...

Prediction review. Mostly not right :)

Lupul hits the IR in January and doesn't come back.
He IRed in early Feb. Close!

Older expiring UFAs moved out by the deadline for 2-4th rd picks.
This one was a gimme.

Reimer is flipped for a 3rd and an older backup to a contender.
If the Sharks make the final, then this one becomes true.

Kadri and JvR are shopped, but Leafs will only move if the deal knocks our socks off (1st rd pick +).
JvR injury put a damper on this, but draft/offseason trade was more likely anyway. Kadri played himself into re-signing.

Hopefully we can package one of our remaining forwards (Holland, Frattin, Panik) with Robidas or Bozak for a 3rd + prospect + salary dump.
Frattin and Panik were moved in packages (sort of... Panik --> Morin --> Stalock + pick), but Robidas and Bozak remain in the mix. We did get salary dump back for the Phanuef package.

Soshnikov, Bailey, Hyman, Leivo, Carrick, Loov, and Percy fill out the roster post deadline.
I missed on Nylander coming up, Bailey being moved, and Percy being bad, but mostly right!

Finish 3rd last despite the good bump in possession stats.
Happy to be wrong on this one. We'll see how happy come April 30th.

Kadri/JvR, if still around, are traded at the Draft for primo picks. We roll into the Draft with 12 picks and target high ceiling prospects as usual.
We do have 12 picks! Kadri won't be traded. JvR is worth way more on the market. There should be some sour teams coming out of these playoffs who would move D/picks for premiere scoring.

2016-17:
Nylander, Kapanen, Brown, Leipsic, Loov, Percy make the jump to the NHL. We finish in the bottom 5 and draft accordingly. Big trades: Gardiner (for a good pick +) and Bozak (for a song). Rielly is re-upped for $6M+/6yrs. Marner takes over 1C on the Marlies a third into the season.
Click to expand...

This will need adjustment. For one thing, Marner can't play for the Marlies unless he's with the Knights and they end their season early.
Rielly did re-up for 6 years! Even cheaper than $6M!
I don't think we'll trade Gardiner with Phaneuf out of the picture.
Bozak is definitely out once we find a taker.
If we play the heck out of our youth, we can still have a promising bottom-5 season and another good kick at the lottery.
I believe Kapanen marinates for another year on the Marlies, and Percy gets packaged (what with all our promising but waiver-eligible defencemen). Leipsic and Loov we can probably keep down longer due to the expiring contracts still on the roster. I'm hoping for a lot of movement on that front prior to the season starting to free up space.

Nylander is in. Marner should be in. Brown, Soshnikov, and Hyman push for roles (and probably get them).
 
Highlander said:
Your were not that far off and you may be Herman but you are not the Amazing Kreskin
Click to expand...

You don't know that. Wait 'til he reaches for that slip of paper in his pocket... and it says Highlander!!  :P
 
LuncheonMeat said:
[quote author=herman]
Core: Nylander, Rielly, Marner, Matthews
Supporting: Marincin, Dermott, Timashov, Gauthier, Brown
Click to expand...

*Edited for accuracy
[/quote]

Prescient.
 
Nik the Trik said:
I think any predictions that start with the notion that basically all of the Leafs first rounders will turn into elite players and quickly are probably on the unrealistically optimistic side of things. Just from a strict numbers standpoint odds are that one of Rielly, Nylander, Marner and whoever they draft this year won't be all that big a deal.
Click to expand...

Question for any interested to answer it. Has anyone looked closely at Marner's D+1 OHL season and Nylander's D+2 AHL season and updated their comparables? Have we seen anything that would indicate we should start tempering our optimism? Asking with full knowledge that a full NHL season can slow their progress.

Also, looking at page 1, I noted that my prediction was, if they didn't trade JvR, Kadri, and (probably) Gardiner, they'd have too much talent in 2016-17 to really have great odds for the 2017 draft lottery. With the addition of Matthews, 2014-15 Panthers season is my optimistic prediction (25-point increase to 94 points). 
 
My biggest question mark on this team going forward is goaltending.  I think they'll need to target someone via trade.  Maybe one of the blues or ducks goalies. And they need to draft at least one this year to start some depth at the position.
 
sneakyray said:
My biggest question mark on this team going forward is goaltending.  I think they'll need to target someone via trade.  Maybe one of the blues or ducks goalies. And they need to draft at least one this year to start some depth at the position.
Click to expand...
Bernier was terrible during the first half of the season but played quite a bit better after that. If he play at or slightly better than his career .915% next season the Leafs should be OK, but yeah they need to have someone up and coming real soon.
 
sneakyray said:
My biggest question mark on this team going forward is goaltending.  I think they'll need to target someone via trade.  Maybe one of the blues or ducks goalies. And they need to draft at least one this year to start some depth at the position.
Click to expand...

Not to discount goaltending, but the sorta reliable superstar goalies that you'd want to lock up and call 'core' are few and far between. Most that are under long-term, big-dollar contracts aren't worth it. A lot of those bad contracts were given to goaltenders who had a couple great years (including Cup wins), but turned out not to be as essential as the Cup would make them seem. There's a lesson in that about what sort of goaltending you need to win a Cup (and about what to do with goaltenders, how to keep your skating core intact, etc.). So, depth, yes, by all means. And assembling a group of quality options shouldn't be that hard, given how cheaply goaltenders can be acquired.

What about defense? That's the weakness that's a lot harder to address, I think. The Leafs' core is full of high-end forwards, and still no Doughty/Karlsson/Subban/Letang/Weber/Keith/Chara/30m-man in sight.
 
What would we have to give up to get a D-man (say Vatanen) and goalie (Andersson) from Anaheim?

Pittsburgh's 1st, JVR, two good prospects not named Marner or Nylander and a lower pick(s)?
 
Jolly good show chaps said:
What would we have to give up to get a D-man (say Vatanen) and goalie (Andersson) from Anaheim?

Pittsburgh's 1st, JVR, two good prospects not named Marner or Nylander and a lower pick(s)?
Click to expand...
I was wondering if there was a deal to be made at the draft for a top 15 pick if sergachev is still sitting there.

for instance could bozak or gardiner and pitts first plus one of the seconds be enough to get a top 10 or 15 pick?  I'm not sure.  or maybe along the same lines as you are suggesting to get shattenkirk and allen out of st louis maybe a similar package?

I don't know if it would do it but I'm sure the leafs will try to be active.  Last year they just decided to move down out of the first round and could do the same this year, or they could probably move up a bit if someone they targeted was sitting there. 
 
sneakyray said:
Jolly good show chaps said:
What would we have to give up to get a D-man (say Vatanen) and goalie (Andersson) from Anaheim?

Pittsburgh's 1st, JVR, two good prospects not named Marner or Nylander and a lower pick(s)?
Click to expand...
I was wondering if there was a deal to be made at the draft for a top 15 pick if sergachev is still sitting there.

for instance could bozak or gardiner and pitts first plus one of the seconds be enough to get a top 10 or 15 pick?  I'm not sure.  or maybe along the same lines as you are suggesting to get shattenkirk and allen out of st louis maybe a similar package?

I don't know if it would do it but I'm sure the leafs will try to be active.  Last year they just decided to move down out of the first round and could do the same this year, or they could probably move up a bit if someone they targeted was sitting there.
Click to expand...

I can see trading Bozak, even Kadri for a top 2 D, however, why does some fans want to trade Gardiner?  :-\  Now that he's out from under the Carlyle blanket, he's been improving steadily, thanks to Babcock.  ;)
 
Al14 said:
sneakyray said:
Jolly good show chaps said:
What would we have to give up to get a D-man (say Vatanen) and goalie (Andersson) from Anaheim?

Pittsburgh's 1st, JVR, two good prospects not named Marner or Nylander and a lower pick(s)?
Click to expand...
I was wondering if there was a deal to be made at the draft for a top 15 pick if sergachev is still sitting there.

for instance could bozak or gardiner and pitts first plus one of the seconds be enough to get a top 10 or 15 pick?  I'm not sure.  or maybe along the same lines as you are suggesting to get shattenkirk and allen out of st louis maybe a similar package?

I don't know if it would do it but I'm sure the leafs will try to be active.  Last year they just decided to move down out of the first round and could do the same this year, or they could probably move up a bit if someone they targeted was sitting there.
Click to expand...

I can see trading Bozak, even Kadri for a top 2 D, however, why does some fans want to trade Gardiner?  :-\  Now that he's out from under the Carlyle blanket, he's been improving steadily, thanks to Babcock.  ;)
Click to expand...

same reason that others want to trade jvr...you have to give to get.
 
Just thinking what the chances are of Matthews playing for the Marlies and Marner playing in Europe next year are?
 
harps64 said:
Just thinking what the chances are of Matthews playing for the Marlies and Marner playing in Europe next year are?
Click to expand...

Same as McDavid in Europe or Eichel playing for Buffalo's AHL team.
 
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