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2012 Toronto Blue Jays Thread

Corn Flake said:
They can't not get something significant in return. The embarrassment factor here is high, after putting a policy in place last year about no lateral moves outside of the org to put a plug in this stuff...  to then let this manager they so highly tout walk to a division rival.... if they allow that to happen for some middling prospect or less than it paints the team as a complete pushover and a joke.

For AA to have the press conference and say, "yeah we didn't get much, yeah we broke a team policy to let this guy go, yeah he's going to be in our face 20 games a year" would be just incredibly pathetic.  The message to the fans would be horribly negative.
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But there are practical considerations, right? I agree that it would look bad but their primary interest has to be the good of the club and if Farrell legitimately wants out, if that's sort of a known thing around the organization, they're in a tricky spot. Even if you don't think Farrell will sulk about it, I can't help but feel it's not something you want around.

Furthermore, there's an opportunity here. If the team isn't thrilled with what Farrell's done as manager, and there's lots of reasons why they might, they can make a very good argument that getting anything out letting him go is net victory and better for the club in the long run.
 
Nik V. Debs said:
Corn Flake said:
They can't not get something significant in return. The embarrassment factor here is high, after putting a policy in place last year about no lateral moves outside of the org to put a plug in this stuff...  to then let this manager they so highly tout walk to a division rival.... if they allow that to happen for some middling prospect or less than it paints the team as a complete pushover and a joke.

For AA to have the press conference and say, "yeah we didn't get much, yeah we broke a team policy to let this guy go, yeah he's going to be in our face 20 games a year" would be just incredibly pathetic.  The message to the fans would be horribly negative.
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But there are practical considerations, right? I agree that it would look bad but their primary interest has to be the good of the club and if Farrell legitimately wants out, if that's sort of a known thing around the organization, they're in a tricky spot. Even if you don't think Farrell will sulk about it, I can't help but feel it's not something you want around.

Furthermore, there's an opportunity here. If the team isn't thrilled with what Farrell's done as manager, and there's lots of reasons why they might, they can make a very good argument that getting anything out letting him go is net victory and better for the club in the long run.
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Sure, if they truly are disappointed in his performance this year.. or rather in the team's performance and feel he could have done more to change it then yeah, it's a chance to cut bait and move on.  But I don't think that is the case.  I think they like this guy a lot, or at least they did until the Red Sox got the rumor ball going again about him coming back.  Some of this endless chatter has probably taken a bit of the polish off Farrell being the guy.  He had to have at least whispered in one ear in Boston at some point for there to be this much noise.  I'm sure the Jays know that.

So practically, yeah if he wants out then you are better off moving on, but also what would be best for the org is to get something significant back and not just a token body, especially because of the team he would be going to. If it was the Seattle Mariners then the compensation would easily be far less.  If he goes back to Boston, they surge up the standings next year and the Jays are wallowing around in 4th or 5th, the collective teeth grinding in this city will be deafening.

I think on the Red Sox side of things, they have put a lot of pressure on themselves to get Farrell so the Jays can hopefully use that to get a lot more than that usual warm body.  Boston certainly can't risk another Bobby Valentine type mistake so the optics for them are pretty intense here too.
 
Corn Flake said:
So practically, yeah if he wants out then you are better off moving on, but also what would be best for the org is to get something significant back and not just a token body, especially because of the team he would be going to.
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Well, obviously in any situation the team is going to want to maximize their return. I'm not saying they shouldn't be trying for that. Personally, I just have my doubts that Boston is going to be willing to give up a good young starting pitcher or a top prospect and in that event then I think you're faced with the question of what would you rather the Jays have, Farrell or one of the top managing prospects and a B level prospect or something. Personally, I'd take the latter. Heck, I'd be largely undecided on Farrell vs. a new manager straight up.

I think common wisdom these days in baseball circles is that with a couple of exceptions a team is really just going to be as good as their talent level and that it's the rare, rare manager that makes a significant difference. Unless you're convinced Farrell is that sort of difference maker, and I really don't think there's any reason to at this point, I don't really see a downside. It's not like he's going to go Boston and become a genius.
 
Potvin29 said:
Shi Davidi in his article for Sportsnet.ca about this suggests that the Jays have to get some really good compensation back, to offset the way the Red Sox have continuously leaked this stuff to the media, and to not be seen as a feeding club for other bigger teams to come in and snatch from.
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But the Jays aren't really in a position of power here. The reason this is dragging on is because Toronto is open, if not excited, about the propsect of trading Farrell. I don't see why they should worry about public perception, particularly since this is a unique situation that would end up benefiting both clubs.

 
Nik V. Debs said:
I think common wisdom these days in baseball circles is that with a couple of exceptions a team is really just going to be as good as their talent level and that it's the rare, rare manager that makes a significant difference. Unless you're convinced Farrell is that sort of difference maker, and I really don't think there's any reason to at this point, I don't really see a downside. It's not like he's going to go Boston and become a genius.
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Don't know if a manager is a difference maker in terms of putting a team over the top but he can sure take an 'okay' team and destroy it, as Bobby Valentine did this year.  Yeah the Sox aren't what they used to be but he certainly iced the cake this year by picking fights with players, using the media to dish out all kinds of criticism, etc. etc. 

Bochy going with Lincecum the other night is an example of where manager's can make a real mess of a good thing.  edit: and then look like a genius the next night with Zito.
 
Sean McAdam of CSNNE.com;
 
‏@Sean_McAdam
Breaking: Red Sox have hired John Farrell as manager, signing him to multi-year deal. Official announcement coming soon.
 
Jon Morosi ‏@jonmorosi
Source: In John Farrell trade, it appears one player will go in *each* direction. So #RedSox will get a player from #BlueJays too.
 
Jon Morosi ‏@jonmorosi
Source: Player going from #RedSox to #BlueJays was a major leaguer in 2012.

Man, just as I was about to go to bed.  :-\
 
Not quite in bed yet. So, (speculation) Farrell + Lind (a chunk of money) for Aviles? Have to think we move an infielder now.

Edit: Or, he just replaces Visquel.
 
Corn Flake said:
Don't know if a manager is a difference maker in terms of putting a team over the top but he can sure take an 'okay' team and destroy it, as Bobby Valentine did this year.  Yeah the Sox aren't what they used to be but he certainly iced the cake this year by picking fights with players, using the media to dish out all kinds of criticism, etc. etc.
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I think that's kind of a chicken or the egg scenario. Did the Sox stink because Valentine did those things or did those things come out because the Sox stunk and Valentine just handled it poorly. I mean, it's not Valentine's fault that basically every single Red Sox pitcher had a bad year and that probably had more to do with their losing record than anything he said in the media.

But even assuming you're right about Valentine then I think the point holds. Most managers manage to the talent level they have and the exceptions are rare, good or bad. If you don't believe Farrell is one of those positive difference makers then A) there's no real harm in letting him go to Boston and B) hiring a new manager gives them a chance to find one.

And as for the negative ones, well, two things. One, even in Valentine's situation if we're using it as a worst-case scenario it amounts to one bad year before being shown the door so the damage is pretty minimal in a long term sense. Secondly, it's not like it's not like those guys are hard to spot either. It's not like when Valentine was hired anyone was saying "Boy, that's a good, safe, conservative choice with no real chance of blowback."

So if the Jays go out and hire Brad Ausmus or Tim Wallach or Dave Martinez or one of the other guys who are being touted by nearly everyone as a good future manager, I don't think there's a ton to say they'll be any better or worse off managerially than they'd be if they kept Farrell. In that respect, getting anything for Farrell is practically a no lose situation.
 
The Sarge said:
Not quite in bed yet. So, (speculation) Farrell + Lind (a chunk of money) for Aviles? Have to think we move an infielder now.

Edit: Or, he just replaces Visquel.
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If I had to guess, I'd bet the idea isn't that he rides the bench but rather that he's a SS/2B option that will allow the Jays some latitude in either trading Escobar or keeping Hechevarria in the minors for another season.
 
Nik V. Debs said:
The Sarge said:
Not quite in bed yet. So, (speculation) Farrell + Lind (a chunk of money) for Aviles? Have to think we move an infielder now.

Edit: Or, he just replaces Visquel.
Click to expand...

If I had to guess, I'd bet the idea isn't that he rides the bench but rather that he's a SS/2B option that will allow the Jays some latitude in either trading Escobar or keeping Hechevarria in the minors for another season.
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Mike Wilner ‏@Wilnerness590
In truth, getting an everyday second baseman - even one who probably hits 9th - is a good freturn for a manager. #Bluejays #Jays

So yeah, maybe Hech is afforded more opportunity to grow.
 
Potvin29 said:
Morosi suggests a possible replacement:

Jon Morosi ‏@jonmorosi

I expect the Jays to look at Sandy Alomar Jr., who could interview for the Rockies? opening as well.
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Do we think this will be a short/quick search?
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Tough to say. They may want to be really exhaustive and go through guys like Alomar and the rest of the top candidates around or they may favour maintaining some sort of continuity and promoting a guy on staff like Wakamatsu who's managed in the bigs before or go with Lovullo who's been a candidate before.

I think that given the way MLB doesn't like teams to make announcements during the WS it at least gives the Jays a week or so of cover to do interviews.
 
If Lind goes the other way too, it represents a $5 mil. savings for 2013 + a  $3.5 mil savings for 2014. Here's hoping A) He goes and B) We re-invest nicely.
 
Not really thrilled with Aviles as the return - not that I was expecting much more. He's a replacement level guy, though he's shown signs of being a plus defender. If salary wasn't a factor, I probably wouldn't have have traded Lind straight up for him. All in all, as expected, a pretty meh deal here.
 
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