2013 Toronto Blue Jays Thread

[Bill_Berg]

I think Bonifacio is having a bit of an off year. He may still turn it around. He hit .296 in 2011 as an everyday player. Only .258 last year in far fewer at bats. So his .200 average this year is out of place. Maybe he's just having a tough time adjusting to the AL.

If you look at his career, it's that 2011 season that stands out as the outlier, not this one. What we're seeing from Bonifacio this year is only slightly below where he's been in just about every season he's played in MLB.

I don't know about that. He's batting .209 this year, going back to 2009 he's batted .258, .296, .261, .252. The four years before that I figure were those young, learning years that all players go through, and there are few at bats. If he was batting .252, his worst season in the past 4, would we be having this discussion?

.252 would be a higher average than Bautista, Rasmus, Arencibia, and others.

 

[Kin]

I don't know about that. He's batting .209 this year, going back to 2009 he's batted .258, .296, .261, .252. The four years before that I figure were those young, learning years that all players go through, and there are few at bats. If he was batting .252, his worst season in the past 4, would we be having this discussion?

For the most part, yes because Bonifacio basically brings nothing else to the table at the plate other than batting average. He's only got the one year where his OPS is even approaching league average and that's also the only year his oWAR was above 1.0. He's pretty much a black hole offensively if he's not hitting .280+ so his failure to be able to do that on a consistent basis is probably going to limit him to being a bench player in a good offense.

 

[Bill_Berg]

I don't know about that. He's batting .209 this year, going back to 2009 he's batted .258, .296, .261, .252. The four years before that I figure were those young, learning years that all players go through, and there are few at bats. If he was batting .252, his worst season in the past 4, would we be having this discussion?

For the most part, yes because Bonifacio basically brings nothing else to the table at the plate other than batting average. He's only got the one year where his OPS is even approaching league average and that's also the only year his oWAR was above 1.0. He's pretty much a black hole offensively if he's not hitting .280+ so his failure to be able to do that on a consistent basis is probably going to limit him to being a bench player in a good offense.

Sure, he's not an offensive juggernaut. I just mean to say that it's reasonable to expect more out of him. Him batting .209 this season is not something anyone would have guessed would happen. This is a down season for him.

I'm also not advocating that he stays the starter at 2nd.  I'm just not surprised he's getting more rope than many expected.

 

[Kin]

Sure, he's not an offensive juggernaut. I just mean to say that it's reasonable to expect more out of him. Him batting .209 this season is not something anyone would have guessed would happen. This is a down season for him.

I'm also not advocating that he stays the starter at 2nd.  I'm just not surprised he's getting more rope than many expected.

I'm just saying that if he were hitting his career average of .261 the team would reasonably need more offense from his spot. I appreciate why they gave him the shot but realistically he was going to be a bad offensive player.

 

[Bill_Berg]

Sure, he's not an offensive juggernaut. I just mean to say that it's reasonable to expect more out of him. Him batting .209 this season is not something anyone would have guessed would happen. This is a down season for him.

I'm also not advocating that he stays the starter at 2nd.  I'm just not surprised he's getting more rope than many expected.

I'm just saying that if he were hitting his career average of .261 the team would reasonably need more offense from his spot. I appreciate why they gave him the shot but realistically he was going to be a bad offensive player.

Yeah, I agree with that. I don't think he was ever expected to be the number one guy at 2nd. But if he was batting .261, he wouldn't be sticking out like a sore thumb in the lineup. And I don't see much of an upgrade with Derosa. Derosa hits better, but we lose speed, 6 of one...

When Lawrie comes back though, I would expect Izturis to move to 2nd and Bonofacio to take his place on the bench as a defensive replacement and pinch runner.

 

[Kin]

And I don't see much of an upgrade with Derosa. Derosa hits better, but we lose speed, 6 of one...

The thing about speed in an offensive context is that it's really only useful if you get on base. Bonifacio could be Usain Bolt and his .234 OBP would prevent him from making a meaningful contribution to the offense. De Rosa's OBP being 85 points higher is way, way more valuable than Bonifacio's speed.

 

[Bill_Berg]

And I don't see much of an upgrade with Derosa. Derosa hits better, but we lose speed, 6 of one...

The thing about speed in an offensive context is that it's really only useful if you get on base. Bonifacio could be Usain Bolt and his .234 OBP would prevent him from making a meaningful contribution to the offense. De Rosa's OBP being 85 points higher is way, way more valuable than Bonifacio's speed.

But his career OBP is only .021 less than Derosa's. My original point is that we should be expecting Bonofacio to produce more than he is now. So when he gets into the line-up, Gibbons is putting in a guy with a .319 OBP, not a guy with a .234 OBP.

If you want to argue that Bonofacio has had his chance and he's blown it, that's another thing. I defer my opinion on that to Gibbons.

 

[Kin]

But his career OBP is only .021 less than Derosa's.

I wouldn't be that quick to dismiss the edge there because A) it's not insubstantial and B) it does sort of neatly divide them as ond player with an above average OBP and a player with a below average one. Regardless, if it comes down to De Rosa vs. Bonifacio then it's not just a matter of OBP and De Rosa's career slugging percentage being 70 points higher way outweighs any difference in footspeed.

Anyways, as to the general point I'm sure you're right and that Gibbons didn't put Bonifacio into the line-up and expect him to be as bad as he's been but I don't know how much that explains things if he still should have been able to look at Bonifacio's history and see he's not a very good hitter and that in the AL east it was probably going to be even worse.

 

[Bill_Berg]

But his career OBP is only .021 less than Derosa's.

I wouldn't be that quick to dismiss the edge there because A) it's not insubstantial and B) it does sort of neatly divide them as ond player with an above average OBP and a player with a below average one. Regardless, if it comes down to De Rosa vs. Bonifacio then it's not just a matter of OBP and De Rosa's career slugging percentage being 70 points higher way outweighs any difference in footspeed.

Anyways, as to the general point I'm sure you're right and that Gibbons didn't put Bonifacio into the line-up and expect him to be as bad as he's been but I don't know how much that explains things if he still should have been able to look at Bonifacio's history and see he's not a very good hitter and that in the AL east it was probably going to be even worse.

Derosa's getting long in the tooth, that might be a consideration. You want the young guy to get the at bats. It's a good point about the AL East. There are no Rays in the NL. So you would expect carrier numbers to be a bit worse in general.

Until this year, Bonifacio has had the better slugging percentage in the past three years, which is interesting.

Also, in looking at stats I saw the game was on at 12:10 today. If it wasn't for this conversation I'd have missed the game today! Thanks Nik!

Emilo is in today, maybe he'll go 3 for 3 with two doubles, 2 SBs, and a walk.

 

[KoHo]

Kawasaki's OBP is significantly higher than Izturis and Bonifacio's. He doesn't hit as much but he gets on base way more, plays good defense, and has excellent speed. I would have tried him at 2B, where he started 6 games for the Mariners last season.

 

[Kin]

Derosa's getting long in the tooth, that might be a consideration. You want the young guy to get the at bats.

If Bonifacio were a prospect, sure. But at 28 there's no real difference.

 

[Bill_Berg]

Derosa's getting long in the tooth, that might be a consideration. You want the young guy to get the at bats.

If Bonifacio were a prospect, sure. But at 28 there's no real difference.

Probably right. I would argue that Derosa is on the decline so get the guy in that will play longer term, but Derosa's numbers don't really support that. He's having a good season.

Has Gibbons commented on his decision to play Bonofacio over Derosa in recent weeks? I would be interested in his answer.

 

[Deebo]

RA is pitching a gem today

Only 87 (66 for strikes, 72%) pitches through 8IP with 2H, 1BB, 0ER and 6K

Jays lead 3-0 in the top of the 9th.

 

[Bill_Berg]

RA is pitching a gem today

Only 87 (66 for strikes, 72%) pitches through 8IP with 2H, 1BB, 0ER and 6K

Jays lead 3-0 in the top of the 9th.

Yeah, he's looking great. First CG of the season?

 

[Deebo]

There it is, CG shut out in under 100 pitches.

 

[Derk]

That was a quick 9th inning - only 6 pitches! Nice win for Dickey and the Jays to end that short losing streak.

Interestingly, this makes 19 straight series the Jays have been unable to win in Tampa Bay.

I'm hoping for 3 of 4 from Boston this weekend, but expecting a split. I hope they can keep rolling and stay close to the leaders in the division and the wild card.

 

[Corn Flake]

Is it me or is Dickey mostly having success when he pitches indoors?

 

[bustaheims]

Is it me or is Dickey mostly having success when he pitches indoors?

Before today's game, his ERA indoors was about a run lower, but his WHIP was 10 points higher, while his BAA was roughly the same. He has a higher K rate indoors, but a higher walk rate as well. So, all in all, I'd say he's not really having more success in either situation.

 

[seahawk]

I'm going to the Jays-Tigers game on Monday, and possibly Thursday. Monday is an afternoon game, being Canada Day and I can't remember which side of the stadium is the side that's in the sun when the roof is open.

 

[bustaheims]

I'm going to the Jays-Tigers game on Monday, and possibly Thursday. Monday is an afternoon game, being Canada Day and I can't remember which side of the stadium is the side that's in the sun when the roof is open.

Well, the when the roof is open, it sits over the outfield side of the stadium, so, pretty much anywhere that's not either in the hotel, restaurant, 1st level outfield seats or on levels 2, 3 or 4 is exposed to the sun.