2014 Stanley Cup Final

[GhostofPotvin29]

The last 3 Cup winners were, respectively, the 1st, 2nd and 4th best possession teams in the regular season.  The runner-ups were the 6th, 4th and 9th best.  This is why a lot of people use the possession stuff for predictions.  While there's never going to be a perfect metric, looking at these numbers can help weed out pretenders likely seeing results above their heads (Leafs, Avs, etc) and can help predict teams who can contend even if their regular season point totals might not indicate they were among the best (LA their first Cup year, NYR this season).

Hopefully the Leafs can find a way to improve those numbers.

In graph form the 7 best possession teams (Fenwick Close) over the past 7 seasons and how they finished:

So if you're a betting person for the playoffs, better bet is to go by those #'s than regular season standings.

 

[hockeyfan1]

The last 3 Cup winners were, respectively, the 1st, 2nd and 4th best possession teams in the regular season.  The runner-ups were the 6th, 4th and 9th best.  This is why a lot of people use the possession stuff for predictions.  While there's never going to be a perfect metric, looking at these numbers can help weed out pretenders likely seeing results above their heads (Leafs, Avs, etc) and can help predict teams who can contend even if their regular season point totals might not indicate they were among the best (LA their first Cup year, NYR this season).

Hopefully the Leafs can find a way to improve those numbers.

In graph form the 7 best possession teams (Fenwick Close) over the past 7 seasons and how they finished:

So if you're a betting person for the playoffs, better bet is to go by those #'s than regular season standings.

The numbers tell the tale.  Let's hope the Leafs do indeed improve on this very important stat and it's meaning.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dygMvt4U3BQ[/youtube]

 

[ZBBM]

The last 3 Cup winners were, respectively, the 1st, 2nd and 4th best possession teams in the regular season.  The runner-ups were the 6th, 4th and 9th best.  This is why a lot of people use the possession stuff for predictions.  While there's never going to be a perfect metric, looking at these numbers can help weed out pretenders likely seeing results above their heads (Leafs, Avs, etc) and can help predict teams who can contend even if their regular season point totals might not indicate they were among the best (LA their first Cup year, NYR this season).

Hopefully the Leafs can find a way to improve those numbers.

In graph form the 7 best possession teams (Fenwick Close) over the past 7 seasons and how they finished:

So if you're a betting person for the playoffs, better bet is to go by those #'s than regular season standings.

TRADE GARDINER NOW

 

[hockeyfan1]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dygMvt4U3BQ[/youtube]

So many memories...ultimately...Canada's championship, the Stanley Cup. 

 

[Kin]

We all remember that the Kings barely got out of the first round, right?

 

[hockeyfan1]

We all remember that the Kings barely got out of the first round, right?

Right.  And who would have thought that they would end winning the Stanley Cup in overtime?  Dramatic, incredible, unbelievable, the Kings playoff run.  They did it, they deserved it, they earned it. Bravo L.A.!

 

[Kin]

Right.  And who would have thought that they would end winning the Stanley Cup in overtime?  Dramatic, incredible, unbelievable, the Kings playoff run.  They did it, they deserved it, they earned it. Bravo L.A.!

Thanks but I wasn't looking for more cliches.

 

[hap_leaf]

The last 3 Cup winners were, respectively, the 1st, 2nd and 4th best possession teams in the regular season.  The runner-ups were the 6th, 4th and 9th best.  This is why a lot of people use the possession stuff for predictions.  While there's never going to be a perfect metric, looking at these numbers can help weed out pretenders likely seeing results above their heads (Leafs, Avs, etc) and can help predict teams who can contend even if their regular season point totals might not indicate they were among the best (LA their first Cup year, NYR this season).

Hopefully the Leafs can find a way to improve those numbers.

In graph form the 7 best possession teams (Fenwick Close) over the past 7 seasons and how they finished:

So if you're a betting person for the playoffs, better bet is to go by those #'s than regular season standings.

The numbers tell the tale.  Let's hope the Leafs do indeed improve on this very important stat and it's meaning.

The numbers confirm that a team good enough to win the Cup has some great players.  That is all.

 

[hap_leaf]

Right.  And who would have thought that they would end winning the Stanley Cup in overtime?  Dramatic, incredible, unbelievable, the Kings playoff run.  They did it, they deserved it, they earned it. Bravo L.A.!

Thanks but I wasn't looking for more cliches.

Well, "barely" counts in sports and when they get out of the first round down 3 games to none and win the Cup, some superlatives are in order. 

 

[L K]

We all remember that the Kings barely got out of the first round, right?

What I took away from this is that the Leafs were a regulation save away from winning the Cup last year.

 

[Kin]

The numbers confirm that a team good enough to win the Cup has some great players.  That is all.

I mean, the numbers certainly stand in stark contrast to the people who said that a team is likely to win the Cup while not being very good. None of the teams who made the finals in the last three years have been bad teams or horrible underdogs except for maybe the 2012 Kings who got ridiculous goaltending.

The 7 teams in that chart averaged 111 points in the regular season if you pro-rate for the lockout year. Remove the Kings and it's an average of 116 points. The President's trophy winners, over that span, averaged 119 points. There are 5 Final appearances among those 7 teams. President's Trophy Winners have 3.

If you look at expanded history, say, here:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/kings-disappointing-playoff-run-surprises-advanced-stats/

And you'll see a somewhat different picture. Having possession of the puck is, generally, a good thing but it's still just a metric among many.

 

[L K]

The numbers confirm that a team good enough to win the Cup has some great players.  That is all.

I mean, the numbers certainly stand in stark contrast to the people who said that a team is likely to win the Cup while not being very good. None of the teams who made the finals in the last three years have been bad teams or horrible underdogs except for maybe the 2012 Kings who got ridiculous goaltending.

The 7 teams in that chart averaged 111 points in the regular season if you pro-rate for the lockout year. Remove the Kings and it's an average of 116 points. The President's trophy winners, over that span, averaged 119 points. There are 5 Final appearances among those 7 teams. President's Trophy Winners have 3.

If you look at expanded history, say, here:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/kings-disappointing-playoff-run-surprises-advanced-stats/

And you'll see a somewhat different picture. Having possession of the puck is, generally, a good thing but it's still just a metric among many.

Interesting article.  Can someone clarify what this paragraph is intending?

(* Note: I didn?t use actual PP goals allowed when calculating the differential ? the model works best when it uses the team?s real number of PP goals scored on the offensive side, but on the defensive side multiplies the league?s average PP percentage by the number of PP chances allowed by the team per game.)

I don't understand why using the league average was better than using the actual opposition PP% to model?  It doesn't seem like it makes it much easier but it certainly would make things less accurate.

 

[Kin]

I don't understand why using the league average was better than using the actual opposition PP% to model?  It doesn't seem like it makes it much easier but it certainly would make things less accurate.

I read it to mean that using the League Average creates a model that more accurately predicts the league leader for the years we do have the Fenwick data which, in theory, makes it more useful for the years where we don't.

 

[bustaheims]

And you'll see a somewhat different picture. Having possession of the puck is, generally, a good thing but it's still just a metric among many.

It's also kind of one of those obvious indicators, as teams that control the puck more are more likely to win. It's like pointing out that teams that allow less goals are more likely to win. The numbers line up nicely in terms of predicting recent Cup winners - the last 5 Cup winners finished in the top 6 in terms of GA/G, with the last 4 in the top 2 - but, it really doesn't tell you anything you shouldn't already know. It really just puts a number on it.

EDIT: That being said, things like possession and goals against are obviously strongly linked.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

We all remember that the Kings barely got out of the first round, right?

What I took away from this is that the Leafs were a regulation save away from winning the Cup last year.

Kings barely got out of the first round against the 3rd best possession team in the regular season (which that FiveThirtyEight article doesn't mention for some unknown reason).  In other words, that series was probably a toss up.  I don't see the original point.  The West was stacked and any of those top teams could have won, and if you had picked the Kings to win it all it would have been a solid bet even if you didn't know the outcome yet.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

And you'll see a somewhat different picture. Having possession of the puck is, generally, a good thing but it's still just a metric among many.

It's also kind of one of those obvious indicators, as teams that control the puck more are more likely to win. It's like pointing out that teams that allow less goals are more likely to win. The numbers line up nicely in terms of predicting recent Cup winners - the last 5 Cup winners finished in the top 6 in terms of GA/G, with the last 4 in the top 2 - but, it really doesn't tell you anything you shouldn't already know. It really just puts a number on it.

It's basically if you're a great possession team, or great at GA/G, it SHOULD show up in the standings over 82 games, but if it doesn't here are some ways you can potentially predict what will happen over the next set of games.  In most cases, the top teams by the end of the season and top possession teams should line up, but in some cases (Colorado, LA being recent examples) it won't and it can just help determine these things.

Prepare thy pitchforks.

 

[Kin]

We all remember that the Kings barely got out of the first round, right?

What I took away from this is that the Leafs were a regulation save away from winning the Cup last year.

What i took away from it is that the Kings were a really solid bet to win the Stanley Cup before the playoffs began based on a careful examination of their possession numbers during the regular season...or based on absolutely nothing from the regular season which is why they had the 4th best odds according to Vegas going into the year.

They're a good team. They play really good defense. They went up against the #3 team in possession and they barely got by. Then they went up against the #15 team in possession and they barely got by. They did, however, beat the #6 team in the finals...who themselves barely got out of the first round against the #23 team.

 

[Kin]

It's also kind of one of those obvious indicators, as teams that control the puck more are more likely to win. It's like pointing out that teams that allow less goals are more likely to win. The numbers line up nicely in terms of predicting recent Cup winners - the last 5 Cup winners finished in the top 6 in terms of GA/G, with the last 4 in the top 2 - but, it really doesn't tell you anything you shouldn't already know. It really just puts a number on it.

EDIT: That being said, things like possession and goals against are obviously strongly linked.

Yeah, I don't think anyone, anywhere, would dispute that you want to be good at having the puck and not letting it into the back of your net. Better teams, and like you say there are lots of ways to measure that although points works pretty well, are more likely to win over less good teams.

Thing is, and this is one of those things that read as antithetical to a lot of us and the way we look at sports, the reality is that we're talking about a bunch of small series among teams that tend not to have huge advantages over each other. Unless one team just steamrolls through the playoffs...I don't know that they prove anything anymore.

 

[Heroic Shrimp]

I think it's hilarious that the Stanley Cup finals are done, but the Calder Cup finals will wrap up no sooner than Tuesday, and could go as late as the following Monday.