bustaheims said:
That's true, though I'm not sure how much of a concern that's going to be. They haven't seemed to be a problem so far. I think they'll be more focused on reducing the length of contracts signed in the UFA market than they will be on re-signings. I can see them pushing for a 6/8 split instead of a 7/8, to give teams more leverage to retain talent.
I think you're right in the sense that the current 7/8 split hasn't been a problem in the sense that it hasn't resulted in too many terrible 7 or 8 year deals(although I'm sure the league doesn't want to see any more Nathan Horton/David Clarkson type contracts).
Where I think the League is going to come from is going to be in wanting to significantly lower the risk involved in signing mid tier free agents. There are a lot of terrible 4, 5 and 6 year deals that agents have gotten for players because they can be sold as being under the upper threshold. I think the league is going to want to turn those deals into 2, 3 and 4 year deals and I think the relative upside of being able to lock in the guys you want to sign long term to 7 or 8 year deals isn't that big a deal because teams haven't really shown an inability to sign guys that they want to sign as they're pending UFA's(and stars aren't really showing a desire to test the upper limits of their earning power).
Plus, more UFA's means more raises which means teams stay at the top shorter(satisfying the league's love of parity) and a more active UFA market(fun!). My guess is after the next CBA deals are limited at 4/5 or 5/6.