2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion

[herman]

so...you think Bozak is gone this summer ?

1-2 years at 2-3M? Do-able. But that line is automatically going to require sheltering, by definition of being a Bozak line. So if we're going to commit to sheltering a line, might as well go cheaper. The top line of the AHL with all players under 25 looks like a pretty good bet to roll out (Johnsson - Aaltonen - Kapanen).

Ideally, a centre spine of Matthews - Tavares - Kadri means we can/have to really cheap out on a 4th line. Realistically, I'm of the mind that getting a 3C we don't need to defensively shelter will have the most cost-effective impact on improving this team.

 

[L K]

Plek, I'm not really loving his play so far.  I really don't get why he is playing so high up in the lineup though.  It's just confusing to me that veterans seem to get the boost to higher lines without "earning it".

 

[Highlander]

I think Babcock is experimenting with the Mechanic, doesn't want him to turn turtle (neck) right out of the gate. So far looks like they should have stuck with Moore as he seems to be more.  It sounded like a very good move at the time, lets hope it turns around.
However in all things hockey I do defer to the Babs and his ways, we are not so close to the top of the East for nothing.

 

[hockeyfan1]

I think Babcock is experimenting with the Mechanic, doesn't want him to turn turtle (neck) right out of the gate. So far looks like they should have stuck with Moore as he seems to be more.  It sounded like a very good move at the time, lets hope it turns around.
However in all things hockey I do defer to the Babs and his ways, we are not so close to the top of the East for nothing.

He needs to get used to playing with the Leafs, after having played so long with Montreal.  He'll come around, just in time for the playoffs when he'll no doubt tune in.  He's experienced, a veteran who can lead by example.  I expect Plekanec to up his game come playoff time.

 

[herman]

This is a repeat on things brought up before, but here's a conversation between Bourne and Wilson on why Coach _____ is so stubborn and why doesn't he just do this and this and this on the PP, and why the H-E-double-hockey-sticks is he playing this trash panda in the OT, and how all of that is really not a realistic expectation.

https://theathletic.com/263369/2018/03/06/bourne-and-wilson-a-conversation-on-coaching-the-flames-struggles-and-much-more/

It's a long season. Feel free to get totally caught up in a small sample size of blahs or super shooting and fire the coach/plan the parade accordingly.

 

[herman]

This isn't directly Leafs related, but it is about what a player needs to be able to do to perform as a top-end centre in this league.

https://twitter.com/EricEngels/status/969045453047259136

Why didn't Babcock just throw Matthews and Nylander into top match ups right away? Playing centre on the defensive side of the game is hella hard.

Edit: get Tavares, btw. I hear he's good.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

https://twitter.com/kristen_shilton/status/971418046299590656

Nylander and Marner are back together at practice today.

That's good.

Komarov's 2-goal night earned him a spot back on the Kadri line.

That's bad.

 

[TML fan]

I'm just gonna beat the "should have traded JVR" horse one more time, but I think it's pretty telling that he can't get off that Bozak line even with the injuries.

 

[Strangelove]

https://twitter.com/kristen_shilton/status/971418046299590656

Nylander and Marner are back together at practice today.

That's good.

Komarov's 2-goal night earned him a spot back on the Kadri line.

That's bad.

I guess dozens of games with putrid numbers at both ends of the ice was not enough of a sample size to get Babcock off the washed up veteran love train.

 

[ZBBM]

Edit: get Tavares, btw. I hear he's good.

Just playing dev's av, here, I'd take Tavares in a NY Islander minute.

But....

He will be 28 at the start of next season, and forwards' prime years end, on average, if I am not mistaken, at 27.  Or something like that.

It's one thing to be paying Patty Marleau for 2 more years at 6ish.  It would be another to pay for the last 3-4 years of someone who is marleauing at whatever cash Tavares will command.

This concerns me.  Somewhat.

 

[Guru Tugginmypuddah]

Edit: get Tavares, btw. I hear he's good.

Just playing dev's av, here, I'd take Tavares in a NY Islander minute.

But....

He will be 28 at the start of next season, and forwards' prime years end, on average, if I am not mistaken, at 27.  Or something like that.

It's one thing to be paying Patty Marleau for 2 more years at 6ish.  It would be another to pay for the last 3-4 years of someone who is marleauing at whatever cash Tavares will command.

This concerns me.  Somewhat.

Elite players tend to stay pretty good into their early 30's.  Witness Malkin, Crosby, Giroux, Kopitar.

It's concerning, since I think max term for not your own UFA is 7 years, the extra year the Islanders will be able to offer could drive up the AAV for the Leafs.

Stamkos is making $8.5m a year, so I don't know if you could get Tavares for any less than that.

If I'm the Leafs I'm letting JVR and Bozak walk and going all in on Tavares.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Just playing dev's av, here, I'd take Tavares in a NY Islander minute.

But....

He will be 28 at the start of next season, and forwards' prime years end, on average, if I am not mistaken, at 27.  Or something like that.

It's one thing to be paying Patty Marleau for 2 more years at 6ish.  It would be another to pay for the last 3-4 years of someone who is marleauing at whatever cash Tavares will command.

This concerns me.  Somewhat.

A 7-year contract would bring Tavares to 35. Marleau is currently 38. So it's not exactly the same thing.

I think generally the elite of the elite don't use the same ageing curve as an average NHLer would. I mean Crosby, Malkin, and Ovechkin are all 30-32 years old and I'm not really sure any of them are making people think they'll be done or even slowing down when they approach 35.

 

[herman]

Edit: get Tavares, btw. I hear he's good.

Just playing dev's av, here, I'd take Tavares in a NY Islander minute.

But....

He will be 28 at the start of next season, and forwards' prime years end, on average, if I am not mistaken, at 27.  Or something like that.

It's one thing to be paying Patty Marleau for 2 more years at 6ish.  It would be another to pay for the last 3-4 years of someone who is marleauing at whatever cash Tavares will command.

This concerns me.  Somewhat.

a)

b) longevity in the league seems to be predicated on these primary things
1) playing your role adequately+
2) staying healthy
3) keeping up with team speed

1) what would Tavares' role on our team be if he signed here?
I've been pushing for signing him to be our shutdown two-way centre. He's Kadri but stronger, more skilled, and more boring. Will he be relied upon to score? A bit. Will he free up a crap-ton of time and space for Matthews, Nylander, Marner, and Kadri (while we have him)? What would happen if Matthews/Nylander or Kadri/Marner got all the cushy zone starts that Bozak has been getting? Yes, and that more than makes up for whatever dip in production Tavares might have as he ages.

2) can he stay healthy?
Since 09, Tavares has missed 0, 3, 0, 0, 23 (broken leg, Sochi Olympics), 0, 4, 5, and 0 games this season. His injuries have largely been freak accidents.

3) can he play fast enough?
Speed-wise, Tavares was never a burner, and it was the biggest knock against him coming into his draft year. He worked on it to become more than adequate; coupled with his other ridiculous skills and strength, he's like a faster, shootier, albeit smaller Joe Thornton.

Having never relied on the speed game to generate chances (through the tougher competition he faced), it's his mind and puck control that made things happen, and those, I'd opine because I have no data, don't really slow down until well after retirement.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I'm just gonna beat the "should have traded JVR" horse one more time, but I think it's pretty telling that he can't get off that Bozak line even with the injuries.

I mean get annoyed about not trading JVR all you want, but what does Matthews' injury have to do with his spot in the line-up? Him, Hyman, and Marleau have their spots essentially cemented. There's no point swapping them around now.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

1) what would Tavares' role on our team be if he signed here?
I've been pushing for, shutdown two-way centre. He's Kadri but stronger, more skilled, and more boring. Will he be relied upon to score? A bit.

He's a career 0.92 PPG scorer. I think he'll be relied upon to more more than "a bit". A Tavares-signing would have to change the way Babcock uses his line-up. There wouldn't be a "shutdown" line anymore per se. It'd be more like Pittsburgh where the Pens throw out a Crosby or Malkin line as much as possible and the other team has to decide just how the heck they're going to defend that.

 

[herman]

1) what would Tavares' role on our team be if he signed here?
I've been pushing for, shutdown two-way centre. He's Kadri but stronger, more skilled, and more boring. Will he be relied upon to score? A bit.

He's a career 0.92 PPG scorer. I think he'll be relied upon to more more than "a bit". A Tavares-signing would have to change the way Babcock uses his line-up. There wouldn't be a "shutdown" line anymore per se. It'd be more like Pittsburgh where the Pens throw out a Crosby or Malkin line as much as possible and the other team has to decide just how the heck they're going to defend that.

I agree with you; my clarification would be that we'd have three lines that Babcock can easily throw out there to get a stop or do damage, but I think Tavares' would be the primary shutdown option all other factors being equal, with the opponent picking which of Matthews or Kadri they want to try their second scoring options against. The 4th line would get maybe 5 minutes and we'd be pleased as punch about it.

 

[ZBBM]

Points all taken, but (continuing in my self-appointed role of wet blanket),

1) He plays a heavy game that may not wear well.

2) And, can we really afford to dump 8+ on him when we all want to watch the Big 3 in Leafs unis until approximately the year 2042?

3) And -- we need a defenseman Tavares much more than we need a Tavares Tavares.

 

[herman]

I'm of the mind that the forward group's structure (and ability to execute) makes more of a difference for team defense than getting a single premiere defender. I could be wrong, of course, but given our current context, I feel getting a strong centre yields greater impact towards success, prices being relatively equal.

 

[ZBBM]

I'm of the mind that the forward group's structure (and ability to execute) makes more of a difference for team defense than getting a single premiere defender. I could be wrong, of course, but given our current context, I feel getting a strong centre yields greater impact towards success, prices being relatively equal.

You've made that point before, and you might be right.  But (and here I am speaking not as a devil's advocate) I think getting a premier d-man would by far have the most positive impact on the team.  Say you miss on Tavares this summer and both JVR and Bozak are let go.  Whoever you replace them with (hopefully) will be much better 2-way players.  The defensive side of the forwards is almost assured to go up even if JT doesn't come here.  So the potential net gain in getting a top d-man is higher IMO.

 

[herman]

I'm of the mind that the forward group's structure (and ability to execute) makes more of a difference for team defense than getting a single premiere defender. I could be wrong, of course, but given our current context, I feel getting a strong centre yields greater impact towards success, prices being relatively equal.

You've made that point before, and you might be right.  But (and here I am speaking not as a devil's advocate) I think getting a premier d-man would by far have the most positive impact on the team.  Say you miss on Tavares this summer and both JVR and Bozak are let go.  Whoever you replace them with (hopefully) will be much better 2-way players.  The defensive side of the forwards is almost assured to go up even if JT doesn't come here.  So the potential net gain in getting a top d-man is higher IMO.

Part of my valuation comes in the timing. The players I'm talking about are Tavares, Karlsson, Doughty as being the only ones really worth chasing this way.

Tavares is 'available' this offseason. Doughty and Karlsson will be on the final years of their deals. We'd be buying Tavares, or trading for one of Doughty/Karlsson. Assuming they extend here, there will still be value going out the door to chase one of those two defenders.