2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion

[CarltonTheBear]

Oh, I assumed he was talking about next season.

No, sorry if it wasn't clear, this is just for the playoff line-up.

 

[herman]

Advantages by my estimation
Height: Kapanen
Weight: Kapanen
Speed: Kapanen
Puckhandling: Kapanen
Shot: Johnsson
Utility: Johnsson
NHL playoff experience: Kapanen

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Advantages by my estimation
Height: Kapanen
Weight: Kapanen
Speed: Kapanen
Puckhandling: Kapanen
Shot: Johnsson
Utility: Johnsson
NHL playoff experience: Kapanen

I agree that Kapanen is generally speaking the better player as of this moment, but I don't think the gap is massive. So it comes down to: would you take a slight improvement during 8 minutes of 5-on-5 play or a big improvement in 2 minutes of PP time?

 

[ZBBM]

That's a tough one. I really can't make a choice.

This is Sophie's choice, I can't decide between 2 players I love.

Let's put some pressure on then: if you don't pick one of the two then Babcock goes with Martin instead.

Hey instead of diddling around with silly webpolls how bout you get cracking on the GDT hmmm?  Tonight's game is the biggest test of the year, what with going up against Brodeur, Stevens, Niedermayer, etc.  I'll bet 34/29/16 won't even get 6 shots on net.

Uhhhhhh... you might wanna check the calendar again.

Point taken.  I may be trapped in one of them time crinkles.

 

[Zee]

That's a tough one. I really can't make a choice.

This is Sophie's choice, I can't decide between 2 players I love.

Let's put some pressure on then: if you don't pick one of the two then Babcock goes with Martin instead.

Hey instead of diddling around with silly webpolls how bout you get cracking on the GDT hmmm?  Tonight's game is the biggest test of the year, what with going up against Brodeur, Stevens, Niedermayer, etc.  I'll bet 34/29/16 won't even get 6 shots on net.

Is there some oldtimers game tonight I wasn't aware of?

 

[herman]

You've mentioned before that you don't think Kapanen, a righty, can work in the bumper spot on that PP unit. I really don't think that's true. Matthews and Nylander don't use the bumper the same way Marner does, it's not for high tips or anything like that. On that unit the puck typically gets passed around in a diamond between Matthews-Nylander-Gardiner-whoever is in front of the net (now Marleau). The slot guys usually just hangs around and if the defenders abandon him Matthews or Nylander pass him the puck to get a shot off. Like that Komarov chance the other game that he shot wide. But I don't think handedness really plays a large role there, especially since the pass can come from either side of the ice as opposed to Marner's unit when it usually just gets from his.

I agree the two units operate differently and that the pass can come from both sides on this unit. This isn't so much about what I want as it is what I think Hiller wants because passes are much more likely from Nylander than from Matthews.

Handedness aside, Johnsson is a better option than Kapanen in the bumper as he likes driving into the mess for greasy goals, whereas Kapanen is a perimeter opportunist (he plays the Bozak role with the Marlies). Both are better than Komarov, but Komarov, while stony in hand, could rotate with Marleau as the net front.

Speaking of Marleau, I prefer him down low in the formation. When he's the wall guy, he just takes too many low percentage shots because he thinks he can still zip one by (he can't).

 

[Bullfrog]

Oh, I assumed he was talking about next season.

No, sorry if it wasn't clear, this is just for the playoff line-up.

In that case, I still stick with Kapanen (thought it's still a close call.) For next season, it was basically a coin flip.

I'm a huge Johnsson fan (you can put the stress where you like), but I just think Kapanen is so dangerous on the PK and I think he's been improving on offense lately (perhaps from more confidence?)

 

[CarltonTheBear]

In that case, I still stick with Kapanen (thought it's still a close call.) For next season, it was basically a coin flip.

If both aren't regulars next season we riot (but they'll definitely both be regulars).

 

[herman]

I agree that Kapanen is generally speaking the better player as of this moment, but I don't think the gap is massive. So it comes down to: would you take a slight improvement during 8 minutes of 5-on-5 play or a big improvement in 2 minutes of PP time?

Yeah, they're pretty close to tied in a lot of those categories.

There's PK improvement to factor in too, in which Kapanen and Komarov are key members, while Johnsson is secondary there. All three of them would also be secondary role players on the PP2 unit.

Ultimately, I do still think it ends up being Johnsson + Kapanen sometime during the series for whatever reason, just not right away. Especially if we're up against Tampa.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I agree the two units operate differently and that the pass can come from both sides on this unit. This isn't so much about what I want as it is what I think Hiller wants because passes are much more likely from Nylander than from Matthews.

Even still, when the passes are coming from Nylander I think it puts Komarov in a tough spot because he needs to receive the pass, readjust his positioning, and then get the shot off. And I think we'll all obviously agree that he's just not good enough to do all that quickly. Kapanen, as a righty, can either one-time a pass from Nylander or at least take it and get a shot off quicker because he doesn't need to readjust his body positioning. It honestly baffles me that he was never even really tried there, especially considering how much that unit has struggled.

edit: But I do agree that Kapanen's ideal spot is where Bozak plays on the Marner unit, so he'll make a good replacement there next season.

Speaking of Marleau, I prefer him down low in the formation. When he's the wall guy, he just takes too many low percentage shots because he thinks he can still zip one by (he can't).

Yeah, this was a good mid-season adjustment by them.

 

[herman]

Kapanen, as a righty, can either one-time a pass from Nylander or at least take it and get a shot off quicker because he doesn't need to readjust his body positioning. It honestly baffles me that he was never even really tried there, especially considering how much that unit has struggled.

edit: But I do agree that Kapanen's ideal spot is where Bozak plays on the Marner unit, so he'll make a good replacement there next season.

My thoughts on this are somewhat along the lines of Kadri and Rielly's first season under Babcock. I believe the staff like to lean on ol' reliables so they can focus on certain dev projects throughout the year and give these project players room to grow into a slightly new area of play.

Bourne has written several times about how coaches love players you don't need to think about (Hyman, Brown, Komarov, and now Johnsson), and Babcock's latest answers about Johnsson reflect that. Johnsson was originally just a callup to cover for Komarov and to see what he has to offer so he's been played everywhere as Babcock shoots him heart eyes. But Babcock's stubbornly principled and to me, fairly easy to read; right now he's grumbling a bit against his principles because he loves Johnsson so much and will work to get him into the lineup (see 4th line carousel and holding Komarov off that extra game or two).

I believe Kapanen has been told to focus on the PK side of things to continue what he was learning on the Marlies and be the poster child of generating offense from a defensive posture; he'll probably get that Bozak spot next season when things open up.

 

[herman]

Babthoughts on Johnsson, thanks to MLHS's transcriber:

https://www.mapleleafshotstove.com/2018/03/15/mike-babcock-post-game-leafs-6-vs-stars-5-ot/

On Andreas Johnsson?s debut:

He didn?t get as much opportunity because we got chasing the game. I don?t have a good evaluation, to be honest, just because of the way the game went. When you?re behind? When I?m ahead and managing the game, I play everybody and everyone plays lots. When you?re chasing the game, I?m just playing who I?ve got to play.

https://www.mapleleafshotstove.com/2018/03/18/mike-babcock-post-game-leafs-4-vs-canadiens-0/

On Andreas Johnsson?s performance and first career NHL goal:

I just thought that he had? I don?t know what he had ? seven shots, or something? He had so many chances. Seven shots, two misses. Any way you look at it, he had nine attempts. That line was real good. Hyman was real dominant. Good for him. He was on the puck. He?s smart with it. He?s obviously not scared. He?s quick ? his first couple of steps are quick. It?s good. You want to have as many players as you can.

https://www.mapleleafshotstove.com/2018/03/19/mike-babcock-on-andreas-johnssons-performance-versus-montreal-william-nylanders-play-at-center-and-more/

Do you have a plan for Andreas Johnsson as far as how long you want him to stay up here or how many games you want him to get?

Babcock: I just watched him the first game and didn?t think we gave him an opportunity. The next night, he had seven shots on goal and three other attempts. He made two unbelievable plays. You go through the year ? how many guys have had seven shots on net? How many guys have made that many plays in one game? You watch the game and they decide. I just watch.

https://www.mapleleafshotstove.com/2018/03/25/mike-babcock-post-game-leafs-4-vs-red-wings-3/

On the play of the team?s fourth line of Andreas Johnsson ? Tomas Plekanec ? Kasperi Kapanen:

I thought the three of them were really fast. I played them against anybody. I didn?t really match like I normally do. I just let them roll out the door there and I thought those guys were really effective there. I shut them down there at the end in the third period. Really, there was no reason to. I?ll have to let that happen here as time goes just so that we are really prepared for the playoffs. Plek has got to be an important guy when we are ahead. That?s an important process for us to go through.

On Andreas Johnsson settling into the team and earning the coach?s trust:

He?s a good player. He?s quicker than I thought? No, he?s faster than I thought. I always knew he was quick when I watched him with the Marlies. I didn?t know if he had speed. He does. And he?s so intelligent and on the right side of the puck and he makes really good plays. He?s got good fast twitch. He?s good on the power play and good on the penalty kill. He?s a good player and we?re lucky to have him.

https://www.mapleleafshotstove.com/2018/03/27/mike-babcock-post-game-sabres-3-vs-leafs-2/

On the play of the team?s fourth line (Andreas Johnsson ? Tomas Plekanec ? Kasperi Kapanen):

I thought they were good. They ended up dash-two, and didn?t deserve it one bit. But I thought they were really good. Two games in a row, they?ve dominated and played well and played hard and were effective. That is a good sign for us moving ahead.

On whether he?ll be able to find a spot for Andreas Johnsson when Leo Komarov comes back:

Maybe I don?t. I can tell you Leo is going in for sure. We need the heavy body and the penalty killer. He?s a man. But that?s just the way it is. But I think Johnny has been real good.

https://www.mapleleafshotstove.com/2018/03/29/mike-babcock-on-andreas-johnsson-hes-effective-each-and-every-night/

Andreas Johnsson was saying that, in hindsight, he is glad he didn?t get an NHL opportunity sooner than he did because he didn?t think his game was where it needed to be. Is it tough to preach patience to those young players, especially when they?re a little older as rookies?

Babcock: I don?t bother doing that. It?s real simple: The people down there are the people that are talking to him every day. That would be Kyle and Sheldon. The reality is, when you get here too soon, you leave too soon. You never get good enough. Confidence is hard to get in the NHL. If you have it when you arrive, you are way better off. I think Johnny has done a real good job and looks like a real good hockey player. He didn?t get the same opportunity last night just because of the way we were matching, but still is effective each and every night.

https://www.mapleleafshotstove.com/2018/04/03/mike-babcock-post-game-leafs-5-vs-sabres-2/

On Andreas Johnsson?s performance after getting back into the lineup:

I thought he was good. He works real hard and he?s ultra-competitive. He shows up every day with a great attitude and he?s got energy in him. You can?t say enough about that. People like that make the people around them better. He?s one of those guys the guys from the Marlies said that you don?t have you negotiate with every day. He just brings it every day. That?s a real positive thing. I thought he was good on the penalty kill. I thought he was good on the power play. I thought he played hard.

 

[cabber24]

This is honestly a nice problem to have. Glad we have the depth we do because we will need it during a long playoff run into June.

 

[Coco-puffs]

Mirtle did a deep dive into the Carrick vs Polak debate (with Dellow's help) and the results are interesting.  Dellow broke down their CF% based on shift-type and the numbers are illuminating.

Situation    Carrick CF  Polak CF
DZL            18%          17%
DZW          27%          35%
NZL            38%          36%
OTF            55%          53%
OZL            54%          44%
OZW          75%          73%

Not surprising results if you ask me.  I've always felt that Carrick's numbers get a huge boost from starting in the offensive zone alot (he gets sheltered heavily) compared to Polak.

The only place where Carrick seems to have a distinct advantage is on OZL shifts- which I'm not surprised by as he's a better skater and can transition back while keeping a closer gap, preventing entries etc.

Polak has a distinct advantage on DZW shifts.  Seems like he's a safer bet in his own end.  Not really surprising.

Add to the fact that Polak is one of our better d-men on the Penalty kill (he's got better numbers than Hainsey and Zaitsev), and I'm not surprised he's in the lineup more than Carrick. 
(Not that I necessarily want him in the lineup over Carrick though)
Now, if he could just stay out of the damn box that would make me feel better about Polak in over Carrick.

https://theathletic.com/299645/2018/04/04/mirtle-searching-for-a-final-answer-in-the-leafs-polak-versus-carrick-dilemma/?source=email

 

[Coco-puffs]

One other thing to note about that article.  Mirtle looked at the other d-men do with Polak in the lineup vs without.  He hypothesized that when Polak is in the lineup over Carrick, the other d-men should be seeing better zone starts since Polak is not sheltered like Carrick is. 

                Polak In    Polak Out
Hainsey      46.4%      50.6%
Zaitsev      45.7%      49.3%
Rielly          50.2%      52.2%
Gardiner    48.9%      49.8%

Mirtle's comment:

In every case, the games where Polak is in the lineup brings a drag on possession stats for the top four defencemen. There's no positive net effect to him eating the harder minutes, whether that's because he takes penalties (which put his team in the D zone more) or simply brings teammates down in the few minutes they spend together on the ice.

That appears to be reflected in wins and losses. The Leafs' record when Polak plays is 28-19-5. Without him, they're 20-6-2.

When Carrick plays, they're 32-10-4. Without him, they're 12-15-3.

I think Mirtle might have missed something entirely in that side of the analysis though.  WHO and WHERE are they drawing in?  Is Polak getting more road games and against better teams?  If the other d-pairs are struggling more when he's in the lineup, maybe its not Polak and maybe its because they aren't controlling the matchups (ie on the road) and/or are playing better teams? 

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/domluszczyszyn/status/981570658709590018

Wait. Whut.

 

[Coco-puffs]

https://twitter.com/domluszczyszyn/status/981570658709590018

Wait. Whut.

https://twitter.com/IneffectiveMath/status/981587094832402432

WAIT. WHUT?!?

 

[Zee]

Dermott expected to play on Saturday.

 

[herman]

Some follow-up digging, with Natural Stat Trick.

Looking from Trade Deadline to now, on the PP.
Toronto's PP Scoring Chances per 60 is 106.39.
Coming in second: NYR with 80.84
Coming in third: Kessel-Crosby-Malkin-Hornqvist-Letang's team at 71.9

Now I don't care for outright binning of data like the Scoring Chance homeplate borders or High Danger numbers because you lose some nuance at the edges, so here's our spread of PP numbers before the deadline, after the deadline, and overall.

Toronto	Before	Deadline	After	Deadline	Full	Season
PP Numbers	Rate	Rank	Rate	Rank	Rate	Rank
CF60	111.43	9th	149.37	1st	117.55	1st
FF60	85.17	5th	116.06	1st	90.16	1st
SF60	60.78	7th	82.75	1st	64.32	1st
SCF60	73.8	1st	106.39	1st	79.06	1st
HDCF60	35.56	1st	48.36	1st	37.62	1st
GF60	7.44	14th	18.27	1st	9.19	2nd

Also note the Leafs only accrued 55.49 minutes of powerplay time on ice from the deadline on, second lowest in the league during this stretch, which is reflective of the lack of calls we receive and how fast those powerplays are nullified by our scoring.

 

[herman]

In case you're wondering: Toronto at 5v5 since the deadline
CF60: 9th
FF60: 9th
SF60: 10th
SCF60: 1st
HDCF60: 14th
GF60: 10th