bustaheims
Active member
https://theathletic.com/3190123/2022/03/17/16-stats-montreals-turnaround-blues-defying-analytics-and-torontos-inability-to-win-trap-games/ said:14. On Sunday the Leafs were heavy favourites to beat the Sabres in the Heritage Classic. Anyone who pays even an ounce of attention to Toronto?s team knows how foolish those favourable odds were, especially of late.
Since February 1, the Leafs have been two-to-one favourites on 12 separate occasions according to oddsmakers; the most of any team in the league. The last two months should?ve been a particularly soft stretch of Toronto?s schedule, but in typical Leafs fashion they?ve made things look much harder than they had to be.
According to the odds, Toronto was expected to win 8.6 of those 12 games. Actual retail price? Four. Yikes. That?s literally the exact opposite record of what should be happening in those games.
15. That stat was offered up to me by TSN?s Matthew Cauz on a radio hit last week (before the game against Buffalo) and it felt so absurd I had to dig deeper. Are the Leafs more susceptible to so-called ?trap games??
The answer, over the last two years anyways, is a resounding yes ? which is probably the least surprising thing I?ve ever uncovered for this column. The Leafs have a serious problem playing down to their opponents.
Over the last two seasons the Leafs have had 45 games as -200 favourites or higher, an amount only bested by Colorado. The Avalanche are 50-10 in those games, a win percentage of .833. They know how to win games they?re supposed to (though, with a team that good, every game is a game they?re supposed to win). The Leafs? They?re 26-19, an extremely pedestrian 0.578 win percentage. The rest of the league has a combined record of 298-101, a 0.732 win percentage. Of the 16 teams who have 10 or more games as -200 favourites, only the Blues are worse with a 7-8 record.
Stats confirm what we already know - Leafs frequently play to the level of their opponents. In games where they're not that heavy a favourite, their record is 46-24 - roughly a 108 point pace. They play well against good teams.