2021-22 Toronto Maple Leafs General Discussion

[bustaheims]

14. On Sunday the Leafs were heavy favourites to beat the Sabres in the Heritage Classic. Anyone who pays even an ounce of attention to Toronto?s team knows how foolish those favourable odds were, especially of late.

Since February 1, the Leafs have been two-to-one favourites on 12 separate occasions according to oddsmakers; the most of any team in the league. The last two months should?ve been a particularly soft stretch of Toronto?s schedule, but in typical Leafs fashion they?ve made things look much harder than they had to be.

According to the odds, Toronto was expected to win 8.6 of those 12 games. Actual retail price? Four. Yikes. That?s literally the exact opposite record of what should be happening in those games.

15. That stat was offered up to me by TSN?s Matthew Cauz on a radio hit last week (before the game against Buffalo) and it felt so absurd I had to dig deeper. Are the Leafs more susceptible to so-called ?trap games??

The answer, over the last two years anyways, is a resounding yes ? which is probably the least surprising thing I?ve ever uncovered for this column. The Leafs have a serious problem playing down to their opponents.

Over the last two seasons the Leafs have had 45 games as -200 favourites or higher, an amount only bested by Colorado. The Avalanche are 50-10 in those games, a win percentage of .833. They know how to win games they?re supposed to (though, with a team that good, every game is a game they?re supposed to win). The Leafs? They?re 26-19, an extremely pedestrian 0.578 win percentage. The rest of the league has a combined record of 298-101, a 0.732 win percentage. Of the 16 teams who have 10 or more games as -200 favourites, only the Blues are worse with a 7-8 record.

Stats confirm what we already know - Leafs frequently play to the level of their opponents. In games where they're not that heavy a favourite, their record is 46-24 - roughly a 108 point pace. They play well against good teams.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

According to the odds, Toronto was expected to win 8.6 of those 12 games. Actual retail price? Four. Yikes. That?s literally the exact opposite record of what should be happening in those games.

This just reinforces my belief that if the Leafs had average or maybe even slightly below average goaltending over the last month and a half they'd be leading the Eastern conference in points right now. Above average goaltending and we're talking about the entire league.

 

[bustaheims]

This just reinforces my belief that if the Leafs had average or maybe even slightly below average goaltending over the last month and a half they'd be leading the Eastern conference in points right now. Above average goaltending and we're talking about the entire league.

There's likely a lot of truth in that. Would certainly have helped in the games where they lost focus, didn't show up until later in the game, took their feet off the gas, etc.

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/ieafsupdates/status/1504466880882479104
https://twitter.com/FAN590/status/1504448706845757443
Expiring deal, 6.75M AAV

Twice max-retained* would bring it down to 1.6875M it the Leafs are still in LTIR seems doable if Dermott goes the other way. Any tinkering with the forward cap hits (Kerfoot) might also free up room.

Rielly - Lyubushkin
Giordano - Brodie
Muzzin - Holl
Sandin - Liljegren

*this is the tricky, expensive part

Edit: 32 Thoughts

4. Toronto GM Kyle Dubas continues to indicate he does not want to trade his top prospects for a rental. And, he does not want to move the team?s first-round draft choice for the third time in four years. We?ll see how the Chiarot deal adjusts the market. I believe Lindholm is the Maple Leafs? top target, although they?ve also taken long looks at Giordano, Philadelphia?s Justin Braun, Dallas?s John Klingberg and San Jose?s Jacob Middleton. Travis Dermott and Justin Holl have been on the market for months, and I wouldn?t be surprised if Dermott is given a fresh start, regardless of what else happens in the next few days.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I don't have a ton of interest in acquiring another defenceman, but at the right price Giordano would be the one guy I'd be going after. Especially since I think there's a decent chance we might be able to get him on a reasonable deal next season too.

I think with Holl's improved play + the Dave Hakstol connection there + Seattle not exactly looking strong at RHD he could be someone in play on a deal like this.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Twice max-retained* would bring it down to 1.6875M it the Leafs are still in LTIR seems doable if Dermott goes the other way.

I could be wrong, because honestly who the heck really knows, but I think if Muzzin does come off LTIR the Leafs could send down Clifford+Robertson to get down to 12 forwards, assign Liljegren to the AHL until playoffs (he'd be the 7th/8th defenceman anyway so getting him some playing time would be good), and have Holl go back the other way they could maybe barely squeeze in Giordano at just 50% retained once.

 

[herman]

Twice max-retained* would bring it down to 1.6875M it the Leafs are still in LTIR seems doable if Dermott goes the other way.

I could be wrong, because honestly who the heck really knows, but I think if Muzzin does come off LTIR the Leafs could send down Clifford+Robertson to get down to 12 forwards, assign Liljegren to the AHL until playoffs (he'd be the 7th/8th defenceman anyway so getting him some playing time would be good), and have Holl go back the other way they could maybe barely squeeze in Giordano at just 50% retained once.

I think you're right, there (not going to bother with the math), but I think the Leafs are going to want to add elsewhere as well, not just on D. Hard to say at this point if it requires the additional flexibility or if it will help generate flexibility.

 

[Heroic Shrimp]

I mean clearly no player is "untradeable", attach a 1st round pick to Mrazek and he's gone tomorrow. I mean under reasonable terms no one's taking him right now. Maybe in the offseason if teams get left without a goalie and the Leafs get 2 guys they're comfortable with (which considering the UFA market, may not be easy and we might need to give Mrazek a chance to rebound next season).

I also think goalies are just tougher cap dumps than forwards/skaters. Like Arizona can slot Ritchie (who was successfully dumped yes but had less term and a lower AAV) anywhere in their line-up, if he sucks he just plays less minutes and nobody really bats an eye. A team acquiring Mrazek is going to need to feel comfortable playing him like at least 30% of their season, or pay him in the AHL to do nothing. Look at the Stars and Khudobin, he only had 1 year left on his deal and they weren't able to find any takers for him.

And Mrazek?s contract is BACK-loaded, too, isn?t it? I honestly can?t understand why they structured it that way, although I?m sure there must be reasons.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

And Mrazek?s contract is BACK-loaded, too, isn?t it? I honestly can?t understand why they structured it that way, although I?m sure there must be reasons.

Most contracts were backloaded this past offseason because of the higher escrow percentage for this season.

 

[Kaberle15]

I am sold on Garland and maybe a Goalie.

That 2nd line needs a jump start and if one of Robertson, Steeves or Seney can't do it, Garland would be an ideal fit.

Don't know about Giordano.

 

[Guilt Trip]

I am sold on Garland and maybe a Goalie.

That 2nd line needs a jump start and if one of Robertson, Steeves or Seney can't do it, Garland would be an ideal fit.

Don't know about Giordano.

Would love Garland...don't think Seney, Steeves are ready yet. I saw a suggestion, can't remember where, that maybe Knies and or Abruzzese may sign after their seasons are over...interesting.
At the Marlies game and wondering, where is Ho-Sang?

 

[Heroic Shrimp]

And Mrazek?s contract is BACK-loaded, too, isn?t it? I honestly can?t understand why they structured it that way, although I?m sure there must be reasons.

Most contracts were backloaded this past offseason because of the higher escrow percentage for this season.

Ah, right.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

https://twitter.com/CF_Transactions/status/1504632009167183874
https://twitter.com/CF_Transactions/status/1504632037629698048
???

 

[rdowdall]

That seems weird.

 

[Guilt Trip]

Covid is my guess or he needs time away from the team...other then that, I got nothing.

 

[bustaheims]

Covid is my guess or he needs time away from the team...other then that, I got nothing.

Going non-roster like that suggests it?s more of a personal thing - which we have generally shied away from speculation about in these parts. COVID has its own protocols. Whatever it is, I hope he and his family or whoever else may be involved can sort things out soon and find a happy resolution.

 

[Guilt Trip]

Covid is my guess or he needs time away from the team...other then that, I got nothing.

Going non-roster like that suggests it?s more of a personal thing - which we have generally shied away from speculation about in these parts. COVID has its own protocols. Whatever it is, I hope he and his family or whoever else may be involved can sort things out soon and find a happy resolution.

Non-roster is also the designation for someone who tests positive for covid or has been in close contact with someone who has. He will still count agains the cap, but not against the 23 man roster.

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/earlschwartz27/status/1504635312160616448

 

[princedpw]

https://twitter.com/ieafsupdates/status/1504466880882479104
https://twitter.com/FAN590/status/1504448706845757443
Expiring deal, 6.75M AAV

Twice max-retained* would bring it down to 1.6875M it the Leafs are still in LTIR seems doable if Dermott goes the other way. Any tinkering with the forward cap hits (Kerfoot) might also free up room.

Rielly - Lyubushkin
Giordano - Brodie
Muzzin - Holl
Sandin - Liljegren

*this is the tricky, expensive part

Edit: 32 Thoughts

4. Toronto GM Kyle Dubas continues to indicate he does not want to trade his top prospects for a rental. And, he does not want to move the team?s first-round draft choice for the third time in four years. We?ll see how the Chiarot deal adjusts the market. I believe Lindholm is the Maple Leafs? top target, although they?ve also taken long looks at Giordano, Philadelphia?s Justin Braun, Dallas?s John Klingberg and San Jose?s Jacob Middleton. Travis Dermott and Justin Holl have been on the market for months, and I wouldn?t be surprised if Dermott is given a fresh start, regardless of what else happens in the next few days.

Perhaps this is a silly question, but is Giordano better than Sandin right now? How much?  He?s got to be a fair bit better to make such a trade worthwhile.

Laws of supply and demand suggest to me that acquiring forward will have the best price-performance for the leafs. There just aren?t any right d available that are all that good and left d don?t fit. Miller is the biggest difference-maker.

 

[Kaberle15]

Yes, but Miller will cost way too much. There are other Forwards that could be in the Leafs range.

If somehow they end up with Garland and still had their 1st pick that would be a very successful deadline.

Bunting - Matthews - Marner
Nylander - Tavares - Garland
Mikheyev - Kampf - Engvall
Clifford/Simmonds - Spezza - Kase

Reilly- Lyubushkin
Brodie - Holl
Muzzin - Sandin/ Lijegren

Campbell
Kallgreen