2022-23 Toronto Maple Leafs General Discussion

[hobarth]

It's hard to understand how/why Rielly is so well regarded by so many Leaf fans, his d has always been questioned and his offensive numbers have usually been good, he has never been the author of his success, he more benefitted from TO's improved team rather than having been a catalyst of TO's improvement. TO lost against Vanc., Rielly did little to influence the game and he makes more than Nylander who I think is TO's 2nd best player. However Rielly did do something that surprised me, he grabbed the puck stopped behind the opposition's net and attempted a pass. The normal Rielly would have skated around the net and blind passed the puck into traffic, basically hoping a Leaf would get it. I think that Timmins could very rapidly replace Rielly offensively and his d probably wouldn't be significantly less than what Rielly can do, now.

Lilly seems to be following in the Rielly exhalation by the press/announcers. He doesn't even have Rielly offensive ability and his d might be marginally better than Rielly. Rielly is -5, Lilly +24, these results might actually suggest that one is better positioned in the pecking order than the other, maybe both should be 2nd pairing and that might be great if they can actually be superior as 2nd pairing d-men but I think the level of forward support decreases from the 3rd line to the 2nd and from the 2nd line to the 1st. Rielly's level of d isn't 1st pairing quality but on TO he's being paid like he's a low level 1st pairing d-man, he isn't, he's a need for shelter offensive d-man or maybe a borderline 2nd pairing d-man with offensive capabilities. Even offensively Rielly leaves us wanting more, if he's deployed against the opposition's 2nd or 3rd lines, his ability to dominate doesn't resonate, he normally continues to be the same defensively challenged d-man, his offense becomes pretty well nonexistent.

I think that if TO doesn't do well in the playoffs again this year Rielly needs to go, he's a part of the core, the same core that has come up short year after year. Rielly has all the tools to be a far better d-man but at 28 I doubt he will ever be able to put them together into making him at least be as valuable as he's being paid.

I find it odd that the same fans that loved to hate Engvall were at the same time willing to die on a hill to support Rielly even tho Rielly was much the same type of player, actually I think Engvall was more valuable as he wasn't overpaid. 

 

[dappleganger]

Yeah, that's just about perfect, in terms of getting back up to game speed. And I would assume (legit question mark) that he could still skate non-contact and keep his fitness up.

He might be advised to stay off skates for a bit, but he can definitely do other activities (bike, treadmill, etc.) to keep up his fitness.

But can he still play the guitar on road trips

Might have some issues there.

Drop D barre chords only.

Use the splint as a slide.

 

[ZBBM]

It's hard to understand how/why Rielly is so well regarded by so many Leaf fans, his d has always been questioned and his offensive numbers have usually been good, he has never been the author of his success, he more benefitted from TO's improved team rather than having been a catalyst of TO's improvement. TO lost against Vanc., Rielly did little to influence the game and he makes more than Nylander who I think is TO's 2nd best player. However Rielly did do something that surprised me, he grabbed the puck stopped behind the opposition's net and attempted a pass. The normal Rielly would have skated around the net and blind passed the puck into traffic, basically hoping a Leaf would get it. I think that Timmins could very rapidly replace Rielly offensively and his d probably wouldn't be significantly less than what Rielly can do, now.

Lilly seems to be following in the Rielly exhalation by the press/announcers. He doesn't even have Rielly offensive ability and his d might be marginally better than Rielly. Rielly is -5, Lilly +24, these results might actually suggest that one is better positioned in the pecking order than the other, maybe both should be 2nd pairing and that might be great if they can actually be superior as 2nd pairing d-men but I think the level of forward support decreases from the 3rd line to the 2nd and from the 2nd line to the 1st. Rielly's level of d isn't 1st pairing quality but on TO he's being paid like he's a low level 1st pairing d-man, he isn't, he's a need for shelter offensive d-man or maybe a borderline 2nd pairing d-man with offensive capabilities. Even offensively Rielly leaves us wanting more, if he's deployed against the opposition's 2nd or 3rd lines, his ability to dominate doesn't resonate, he normally continues to be the same defensively challenged d-man, his offense becomes pretty well nonexistent.

I think that if TO doesn't do well in the playoffs again this year Rielly needs to go, he's a part of the core, the same core that has come up short year after year. Rielly has all the tools to be a far better d-man but at 28 I doubt he will ever be able to put them together into making him at least be as valuable as he's being paid.

I find it odd that the same fans that loved to hate Engvall were at the same time willing to die on a hill to support Rielly even tho Rielly was much the same type of player, actually I think Engvall was more valuable as he wasn't overpaid. 

I basically agree with this, although I don't see too many fans willing to die on Rielly Hill; most seems kind of in the middle on him.

 

[Arn]

I don?t mind Rielly. But at the same time while on a personal level cos he seems like a decent guy I?d be sad to see him traded or whatever, if it was a hockey trade that worked out I?d be open to whatever it might be.

Muzzin, though. He?s the best D we?ve had in the last 10 years. I?m sad things have gone the way they have for him.

 

[cw]

I don?t mind Rielly. But at the same time while on a personal level cos he seems like a decent guy I?d be sad to see him traded or whatever, if it was a hockey trade that worked out I?d be open to whatever it might be.

Muzzin, though. He?s the best D we?ve had in the last 10 years. I?m sad things have gone the way they have for him.

When Muzzin was healthy, he was very good.
That is sort of how I feel about Rielly.

Over the last five seasons including this one, Rielly is 9th in dman ppg among those who played more than 82 games. Among the top ten in ppg, his +/- is 4th. Among all dmen, his +/- is 20th. He's 5th in points/60. Goals/60 30th.  He's 12th in game winning goals. 8th in OT goals. His cap hit is 23rd among dmen - not out of line with his stats.

"Oh, well he's playing with good players ..." Kris Letang, Victor Hedman & Cale Makar, etc are playing with bums?

+/- is far from a perfect stat. But when he's that lofty compared with the others, it is tough to make a convincing case that he's a bum defensively. His passing is pretty good. He skates well with the puck. etc.

He doesn't have a booming shot (~top 60 in shooting % - in part due to his style, ... btw, 'Anton' Sandin is 2nd ...). But he often gets it through on net or where he wants it to go.

He's not perfect. They seem to want him to be with a stay-at-home physical dman to help him shutdown the opposition defensively. Most of the top ppg dmen don't hit a lot - most of the top ppg dmen hit less than Rielly.

In prior years, when they talked about potential dmen for Team Canada, Rielly would often be in the conversation. His stats would give one some indication why that might be. This year, I can't imagine anyone would even suggest him.

Many have observed Matthews has not seemed himself this year - something is off. I have a similar feeling about Rielly. He does not seem his usual self. I guess we'll find out at the end of the season.

 

[ZBBM]

As usual, cw, you deliver the goods.  Kind of shot holes in my assent to Hobarth.  I do think it's a caution sign when they have to keep trying to "find someone who can pair up with Rielly."

 

[Guilt Trip]

As usual, cw, you deliver the goods.  Kind of shot holes in my assent to Hobarth.  I do think it's a caution sign when they have to keep trying to "find someone who can pair up with Rielly."

They have someone though. His name is Brodie.

 

[cw]

As usual, cw, you deliver the goods.  Kind of shot holes in my assent to Hobarth.  I do think it's a caution sign when they have to keep trying to "find someone who can pair up with Rielly."

I have mixed feelings about that.

In the wake of prior seasons trying, they have 8 other NHL dmen and arguably two more in the minors ... but still haven't found a "match"
So I agree, that raises eyebrows. Brodie kind of is but they haven't locked in with him.
"Kyle, you're doing all these moves. For Rielly's sake, find a partner for him!"

No one would mistake Rielly as the second coming of studs like Pronger, Bourque or Stevens - who seemed to be able to play with anyone and do very well.

On the other hand, Alan Stanley had Tim Horton. Brian Leetch had Jeff Beukeboom. Scott Niedermayer had Scott Stevens. Etc. So there are many cases in NHL history where teams put together different types of dmen that complimented each other with their talents. In those examples, the whole was greater than the sum of the parts and it wasn't really a big knock on either player that they had a partner who complimented them well.

Rielly is not small: 6'1" 222lbs. He moves really well for that size. I've wondered if they want a stronger stay-at-home defensive partner to help them get possession in their own end and cut Rielly loose a little more offensively ??


During Dubas' earlier years as GM, he seemed heavy into skill and speed. He seemed to draft a lot of lighter, smaller players. After getting spanked in the playoffs a few times, he seems to have been beefing up his roster. Maybe that has something to do with it - maybe its not all just about Rielly.

 

[cw]

I glanced again at the bottom feeders to see if there was a left wing/forward that was .5ppg or better who wasn't a talented kid they were developing and could plausibly fit under the cap with up to 50% retention if needed. Az & Detroit had maxed on their retentions. Could have missed someone but I did not see much that was obvious to me. I was a little surprised it was that hard to find a left wing who could help and fit under the cap.

Following up on my own thought.

Holmberg & Steeves played 6 minutes last night (yes, Holmberg's high stick 4 min penalty probably factored in ..)

They do not have much depth at NHL forward. I like Steeves ok - don't know if he's 'ready'. Holmberg seemed to do ok when he was up before. Keefe liked him.

We have Bunting out of sorts with Keefe playing the 4th line.
We have Kerfoot so snake bit - he can't finish.
Aston-Reese, Lafferty, Acciari & Kampf are all about .25ppg in their career.
I don't see Clifford & Simmonds as saviors after last year.
McMann is hurt. Semyon Der-Arguchintsev has been out for nearly a month.

Abruzzese, Ellis & Zohorna are the only other forwards with a NHL contract.

To leave things as they are, Dubas must know Knies is coming and is counting on him.
If Knies wasn't coming, Dubas would have done something else.

 

[cw]

It appears that Holmberg & Steeves have been returned to the Marlies
https://theahl.com/stats/transactions/335/77?page=1

They both played in the Marlies victory today
https://theahl.com/stats/game-center/1024771

 

[ZBBM]

As usual, cw, you deliver the goods.  Kind of shot holes in my assent to Hobarth.  I do think it's a caution sign when they have to keep trying to "find someone who can pair up with Rielly."

I have mixed feelings about that.

In the wake of prior seasons trying, they have 8 other NHL dmen and arguably two more in the minors ... but still haven't found a "match"
So I agree, that raises eyebrows. Brodie kind of is but they haven't locked in with him.
"Kyle, you're doing all these moves. For Rielly's sake, find a partner for him!"

No one would mistake Rielly as the second coming of studs like Pronger, Bourque or Stevens - who seemed to be able to play with anyone and do very well.

On the other hand, Alan Stanley had Tim Horton. Brian Leetch had Jeff Beukeboom. Scott Niedermayer had Scott Stevens. Etc. So there are many cases in NHL history where teams put together different types of dmen that complimented each other with their talents. In those examples, the whole was greater than the sum of the parts and it wasn't really a big knock on either player that they had a partner who complimented them well.

Rielly is not small: 6'1" 222lbs. He moves really well for that size. I've wondered if they want a stronger stay-at-home defensive partner to help them get possession in their own end and cut Rielly loose a little more offensively ??


During Dubas' earlier years as GM, he seemed heavy into skill and speed. He seemed to draft a lot of lighter, smaller players. After getting spanked in the playoffs a few times, he seems to have been beefing up his roster. Maybe that has something to do with it - maybe its not all just about Rielly.

Schenn?

 

[cw]

Rielly is not small: 6'1" 222lbs. He moves really well for that size. I've wondered if they want a stronger stay-at-home defensive partner to help them get possession in their own end and cut Rielly loose a little more offensively ??

Schenn?

I suspect they'll try Schenn with him. They did a bit already.
I don't see Schenn playing those big minutes because of his slow mobility.

They might try McCabe on the right side though I suspect McCabe-Brodie will become their shutdown pair and might get the top minutes.

 

[herman]

The ideal scenario -- after a decent trial run with Brodie -- is to test McCabe-Holl as a pairing, i.e. the Muzzin replacement plan.

This would give us
Rielly-Brodie
McCabe-Holl
Giordano-Liljegren/Schenn

instead of
McCabe-Brodie
Giordano-Holl
Rielly-Liljegren/Schenn

which underutilizes Rielly, who has historically stepped up in playoff games, and overexposes Giordano over a long series.

We have Gustafsson and Benn and Timmins as additional depth should injuries mount, and there is backup for both offensive/defensive flavouring on both sides. The team can always flex to McCabe-Brodie/Giordano-Holl when trying to lock down the win.

The point of this final stretch of games is to experiment before the playoffs and build a decent library of video, establish some chemistry options, and get the new guys familiarized with the system. If you see Liljegren sitting, it's not because the coach doesn't trust him; it's because the coach knows him from the Marlies days and Timoth knows the system better than the new guys already.

 

[dappleganger]

Any one else worried that the Leafs haven't figured out their D-pairings with 20 games left to go?

It's possible an injury will solve some of this but I don't really have a solid suggestion. Not great.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

The ideal scenario -- after a decent trial run with Brodie -- is to test McCabe-Holl as a pairing, i.e. the Muzzin replacement plan.

This would give us
Rielly-Brodie
McCabe-Holl
Giordano-Liljegren/Schenn

This really does seem like the more obvious solution.

Spreads out our two best defensive defencemen, which makes even more sense when you take into consideration that our first 2 likely playoff opponents both don't tend to load up on a single line (although they certainly have that option to).

And I think if you do want to experiment with Liljegren in more of a top-4 role (which could become more of a full-time thing next season if Holl doesn't return in the offseason) then pairing him with either Brodie or McCabe, with the other playing with Rielly, feels like it would provide better results than what they're attempting to use now.

 

[Guilt Trip]

Any one else worried that the Leafs haven't figured out their D-pairings with 20 games left to go?

It's possible an injury will solve some of this but I don't really have a solid suggestion. Not great.

No. We just got McCabe 4 games ago and Schenn, Gus have only played in 2 games. Lots of time to figure it out.

 

[hobarth]

I find it interesting that the media insist that teams load up at the TDL as a reward for a team, their players, due to the great season they're having. I would think that a great team, having a great season wouldn't want to upset the chemistry of that team by adding new players and displacing players that had been there all year, essentially displacing the players that helped to get them where they were.

You look at TO and see a team that's been top 4/5 the entire year yet TO went out and brought in two players that were never simply a depth augment but were accumulated to improve the team, Boston the best team in the NHL also made moves, displacing the players that got them were they are.

So what's up with that, I look at TO and see a team that should be top 4/5 for the last 4 years if not longer but that hasn't been enough to enable TO to progress beyond the 1st playoff round, ?. The prevailing logic has been the quality of the opposition TO faces in the playoffs in those 1st rounds, I think that Mtl and Clb dispelled that argument, TO hasn't been a finisher, that's a personnel issue.

We are rapidly reaching the point where TO's core needs to be reupped, the question is are these core players worth keeping, if they're not finishers, if they're not progressing then I think TO should move on because what they are, isn't enough, I include Rielly in the core along with AM, MM WN and JT. Both Willie and AM need to be resigned before July 1 or they can then become UFAs after next season, AM will be able to expect, what, about $16 mil. and Willie around $10 mil., there's no wiggle room, that'll mean that TO will have 5 high paid players with the rest of the roster making around the NHL minimum, that's 18 more Kampfs, ugh.

I know magical thinking is what we all can delve into at this time of year, O'Rielly and McCabe may make TO better but really is there any foundation in that optimism, I'm seeing the team that's underproduced late into seasons and in the playoffs be the same again this year at this time. TO faces during the regular season teams that are bad and struggles to win those games yet at the same time can play with the better teams, that inconsistency, that lack of killer instinct, is what's concerning and what has been and will continue to be TO's undoing. A more physical 4th line populated by 4th line quality players isn't an answer, Schenn definitely isn't an answer, all of these players may add to the entertainment value but it's TO's core that needed to be fortified and that because TO's current core doesn't have the necessary ingredient to be ultimately successful.

Since the current core is inadequate, it's time to move on, trade Matthews and Nylander, trade Mitch next year and wait out JT's contract, Keefe is proving to be too Babcockian, remove him, anyone who can't see that Kerfoot needs to be on the 4th line to be adequate needs to go, Dubie is alright, he deserves a chance to assemble his own team. Shanny needs to go, anyone dum enough to bring in Lou and waste the extremely valuable ELC years of TO's core has to go and the wasted Hunter years.

I think this summer is a crucial transition period, holding on to Willie and Austin beyond July 1st without new realistic contracts will be a huge mistake, TO can't offer them realistic contracts that will mean anything beyond the regular season as we have seen from the past.

I remember when TO signed Phanny and Kessel, many thought that TO offered them those contracts because there wasn't any other quality players and TO was overpaying, I fell the same about Rielly and I will feel the same if Austin and Willie get the contracts I've guessed on. I didn't feel that Kessel and Phanny were overpaid, I felt they were under supported, poorly coached with far too much expectations placed on them alone. Ottawa improved immensely when Phanny was traded to them and Pitts. won 2 Cups with the addition of Kessel. Rielly doesn't have the Phanny/Kessel disadvantages but he's being paid far above his talent/contribution level.

On the right team Willie and Austin are worth the contracts I've mentioned, just not on TO due to other commitments.     

 

[AtomicMapleLeaf]

I'm speechless.

 

[Highlander]

I'm speechless.

Hobart writes the bible

 

[L K]

Any one else worried that the Leafs haven't figured out their D-pairings with 20 games left to go?

It's possible an injury will solve some of this but I don't really have a solid suggestion. Not great.

Given the addition of three defensemen a week ago, not really.

I mean I have my personal preference for the lineup (Liljegren shouldn't be benched) but we are going to see a lot of trial and error down the stretch with the addition of McCabe and Schenn.  I think Gustafsson is probably going to sit a lot down the stretch unless they give Rielly a maintenance game or two.