2022-23 Toronto Maple Leafs General Discussion

[Guilt Trip]

I still look enviously at the Chykrun deal the sens made.

But he can't stay healthy. He played 12 games for the Sens, got hurt again and was done for the year. He played 48 games last year. 47 the year before.

 

[Bill_Berg]

I was poking around in cap friendly, and if they can dump Murray, the Leafs will actually have a good amount of cap space next year.

It's actually a fair bit more than I even thought. Let's just do a basic/boring breakdown of what next seasons roster could look like.

Say Murray gets dumped fully (seems likely in a Mrazek-lite trade at the draft), Samsonov is re-signed ($3.5mil) and then the trio of UFAs I think most people want back are re-signed (ROR $5mil, Acciari $1.5mil, Schenn $1mil):

Tavares-Matthews-Nylander
______-ROR-Marner
Knies-______-Jarnkrok
McMann-Acciari-Lafferty

Rielly-Schenn
McCabe-Brodie
Giordano-Liljegren
Timmins

Samsonov
Woll

Assuming a $83.5mil cap ceiling that roster leaves you with $8.5mil in cap space to get a couple of middle-6 forwards. Probably more than a lot of contending teams. 

Yep, or a legit 2nd line centre and move ROR to the third line, or a bump to the defense. They have options next year.

 

[Bender]

I'm just so baffled why Kyle randomly brought his family into the conversation at the end of season  presser. Presumably mlse would know about it but supposedly there was a deal on the table on the weekend. If his hearts not in it they need to get Eric Tulsky now before he's scooped up.

 

[cw]

I was poking around in cap friendly, and if they can dump Murray, the Leafs will actually have a good amount of cap space next year.

It's actually a fair bit more than I even thought. Let's just do a basic/boring breakdown of what next seasons roster could look like.

Say Murray gets dumped fully (seems likely in a Mrazek-lite trade at the draft), Samsonov is re-signed ($3.5mil) and then the trio of UFAs I think most people want back are re-signed (ROR $5mil, Acciari $1.5mil, Schenn $1mil):

Tavares-Matthews-Nylander
______-ROR-Marner
Knies-______-Jarnkrok
McMann-Acciari-Lafferty

Rielly-Schenn
McCabe-Brodie
Giordano-Liljegren
Timmins

Samsonov
Woll

Assuming a $83.5mil cap ceiling that roster leaves you with $8.5mil in cap space to get a couple of middle-6 forwards. Probably more than a lot of contending teams. 

They have to move Murray or buy him out.

Not sure about Schenn with Rielly all season in the top pairing or top 4.

I think they have to find a physical dman for the PK - which is something many felt Holl did well or was ok at.

I'd like to better understand why McCabe-Brodie pairing that looked so good in the regular season had trouble. Was there an aspect of playoff hockey that gave them trouble or was it more the forwards in front of them or both or something else ? I'd factor that into my plans for acquiring personnel.

They have good peripheral talent for scoring. That has been proven again and again to not translate as well during the tighter checking playoffs. Esposito had Hodge (& Cashman) - physical guys to get him the puck or to help finish. Gilmour had Andrechuk. Sundin had Roberts. etc, etc. You can name countless pairings - or teams that had size/muscle/grit with some scoring skill to score in the tighter playoffs. Physical guys who can muck it in or tip it in the blue paint area - going to the net. Very roughly that sort of thing gets you the "dirty" goals in the playoffs. Tavares is someone who can do that and might be more free to do so on a wing though his ability at faceoffs shouldn't be ignored. Knies seems to have the tools - he can pass the puck too. My top priority among the forwards would be to try to find a another guy who can do that beyond O'Reilly (if he re-signs).

I would be encouraging Matthews to be less peripheral - drive the net more. Nylander maybe looking to distribute the puck more when he goes for his skates to players that converge on the net to help increase the dirty goals.

I'm not that bothered by the core 4. They all have enough talent to contribute to a Cup winner. Part of their appeal is they will help defensively. They had trouble scoring more than 2 goals the last 7 games but they were competitive because they played defense. That can be difficult to get stars to do. I have a little more time for players like that.

 

[Bill33]

They have to move Murray or buy him out.

Not sure about Schenn with Rielly all season in the top pairing or top 4.

I think they have to find a physical dman for the PK - which is something many felt Holl did well or was ok at.

I'd like to better understand why McCabe-Brodie pairing that looked so good in the regular season had trouble. Was there an aspect of playoff hockey that gave them trouble or was it more the forwards in front of them or both or something else ? I'd factor that into my plans for acquiring personnel.

They have good peripheral talent for scoring. That has been proven again and again to not translate as well during the tighter checking playoffs. Esposito had Hodge (& Cashman) - physical guys to get him the puck or to help finish. Gilmour had Andrechuk. Sundin had Roberts. etc, etc. You can name countless pairings - or teams that had size/muscle/grit with some scoring skill to score in the tighter playoffs. Physical guys who can muck it in or tip it in the blue paint area - going to the net. Very roughly that sort of thing gets you the "dirty" goals in the playoffs. Tavares is someone who can do that and might be more free to do so on a wing though his ability at faceoffs shouldn't be ignored. Knies seems to have the tools - he can pass the puck too. My top priority among the forwards would be to try to find a another guy who can do that beyond O'Reilly (if he re-signs).

I would be encouraging Matthews to be less peripheral - drive the net more. Nylander maybe looking to distribute the puck more when he goes for his skates to players that converge on the net to help increase the dirty goals.

I'm not that bothered by the core 4. They all have enough talent to contribute to a Cup winner. Part of their appeal is they will help defensively. They had trouble scoring more than 2 goals the last 7 games but they were competitive because they played defense. That can be difficult to get stars to do. I have a little more time for players like that.

100% agree with all of this. Good post. If dubas doesn't take the job, I'll designate you 2nd in line.

 

[L K]

Whatever is going on with Dubas I do hope the organization makes a move sooner than later.  This off-season is too important to have the GM position in flux like this

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Whatever is going on with Dubas I do hope the organization makes a move sooner than later.  This off-season is too important to have the GM position in flux like this

Leafs are going to be getting into the coaching hire discussion pretty late compared to other teams too, assuming they go in that direction.

 

[cw]

Whatever is going on with Dubas I do hope the organization makes a move sooner than later.  This off-season is too important to have the GM position in flux like this

What if they had made it to the conference finals? Then what?

That was a key part of the reason for me to extend him. Not so much because of a few weeks. But because a new guy coming in has a lot to get his head around. Dubas is intimately knowledgeable of the talent on the team, the staff, where they fell short, etc. That is not possible to absorb very well between now and July 1. Draft is coming up and the new GM won't know the scouts, etc. New GM won't know the organizational talent as well, their health, their development progress, etc. Trade talks are back to square one. etc.

It is a different situation than when a team has fallen short and it is time for a rebuild or significant retooling. That GM has plenty of time to get oriented. The Leafs are a 4th place team that still has a window and needs some adjustments. A Sam Pollack clone would have trouble taking over in the first year. The haste to get up to speed makes it more likely to make some mistakes.

Dubas can carry on discussions with the UFA's or RFA's agents. New GM has to start up without the intimate knowledge of what has gone on with the player. Ditto for trade discussions with GMs. Or with his scouts and staff.

They would have to find a GM. I guess Shanahan or Pridham would be interim if he isn't leaving for Calgary. Then they probably have to find a coach.

I doubt this problem with Dubas will be left unresolved very long.

40 days to NHL draft
43 days to July 1.

 

[Bill33]

I'd guess they'll announce something tomorrow on the GM situation to give the org the weekend before the demands of the news cycle.

 

[hobarth]

I was poking around in cap friendly, and if they can dump Murray, the Leafs will actually have a good amount of cap space next year.

It's actually a fair bit more than I even thought. Let's just do a basic/boring breakdown of what next seasons roster could look like.

Say Murray gets dumped fully (seems likely in a Mrazek-lite trade at the draft), Samsonov is re-signed ($3.5mil) and then the trio of UFAs I think most people want back are re-signed (ROR $5mil, Acciari $1.5mil, Schenn $1mil):

Tavares-Matthews-Nylander
______-ROR-Marner
Knies-______-Jarnkrok
McMann-Acciari-Lafferty

Rielly-Schenn
McCabe-Brodie
Giordano-Liljegren
Timmins

Samsonov
Woll

Assuming a $83.5mil cap ceiling that roster leaves you with $8.5mil in cap space to get a couple of middle-6 forwards. Probably more than a lot of contending teams. 

They have to move Murray or buy him out.

Not sure about Schenn with Rielly all season in the top pairing or top 4.

I think they have to find a physical dman for the PK - which is something many felt Holl did well or was ok at.

I'd like to better understand why McCabe-Brodie pairing that looked so good in the regular season had trouble. Was there an aspect of playoff hockey that gave them trouble or was it more the forwards in front of them or both or something else ? I'd factor that into my plans for acquiring personnel.

They have good peripheral talent for scoring. That has been proven again and again to not translate as well during the tighter checking playoffs. Esposito had Hodge (& Cashman) - physical guys to get him the puck or to help finish. Gilmour had Andrechuk. Sundin had Roberts. etc, etc. You can name countless pairings - or teams that had size/muscle/grit with some scoring skill to score in the tighter playoffs. Physical guys who can muck it in or tip it in the blue paint area - going to the net. Very roughly that sort of thing gets you the "dirty" goals in the playoffs. Tavares is someone who can do that and might be more free to do so on a wing though his ability at faceoffs shouldn't be ignored. Knies seems to have the tools - he can pass the puck too. My top priority among the forwards would be to try to find a another guy who can do that beyond O'Reilly (if he re-signs).

I would be encouraging Matthews to be less peripheral - drive the net more. Nylander maybe looking to distribute the puck more when he goes for his skates to players that converge on the net to help increase the dirty goals.

I'm not that bothered by the core 4. They all have enough talent to contribute to a Cup winner. Part of their appeal is they will help defensively. They had trouble scoring more than 2 goals the last 7 games but they were competitive because they played defense. That can be difficult to get stars to do. I have a little more time for players like that.

They don't get paid $11 mil. to defend, defending is tedious but far less dangerous, Marner took his shots from 40' away from the crease but during the regular season his shots on average were from 30', read that somewhere, in the playoffs it would be refreshing to see all the core actually shot from even closer to the net than they did during the regular season.

They weren't competitive and outside of ROR none of them felt that they didn't give their all to win, Austin of course was injured again so I guess he didn't fell he had to, all of the core 4 couldn't overcome the Florida d, all shot from outside of their usual regular season distance, that's how TO got outgoalied, I would call that outdefended/outcoached.

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/SEllisHockey/status/1659195631481548801
Nylander awaiting some insurance clearance last I heard, but Timoth is already cooking

 

[Kaberle15]

This delay in extend Dubas or let him go is going to hurt the Leafs.
They got several decisions to do, free agents to sign, outstanding players to retain or move.

But without someone making the calls, that is going to be hard. I really enjoyed having RoR, hoping that he signs a favorable deal with the Leafs to stay. Acciari, Schenn as well.

But the 1st decision is will Dubas stay ? Clock is ticking on this.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I really enjoyed having RoR, hoping that he signs a favorable deal with the Leafs to stay.

I think he's reading way too much into boring locker room clear-out interviews but Chris Johnston seems pretty certain that ROR isn't coming back. I will say though as like the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th best available UFA centre it would make a lot of sense for O'Reilly to check out what the market has to offer. I'm not as certain he'll be back as I'd like to be, which could be a big problem.

 

[bustaheims]

I really enjoyed having RoR, hoping that he signs a favorable deal with the Leafs to stay.

I think he's reading way too much into boring locker room clear-out interviews but Chris Johnston seems pretty certain that ROR isn't coming back. I will say though as like the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th best available UFA centre it would make a lot of sense for O'Reilly to check out what the market has to offer. I'm not as certain he'll be back as I'd like to be, which could be a big problem.

That's strange. I interpreted ROR's comments quite differently - he had high praise for the organization and seemed really open to coming back. Obviously, not a certainty by any means, but from what I saw, it felt like the Leafs are near or at the top of his list of potential landing spots.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

That's strange. I interpreted ROR's comments quite differently - he had high praise for the organization and seemed really open to coming back. Obviously, not a certainty by any means, but from what I saw, it felt like the Leafs are near or at the top of his list of potential landing spots.

Yeah, I know he tweeted something to the effect of "sounds like ROR wants to test the market" immediately after his comments, and he reiterated that on the Dangle podcast yesterday. Like you, I really don't know what code words he apparently heard that would indicate that. But also don't think it's anywhere close to a slam dunk that he'll return.

 

[bustaheims]

Yeah, I know he tweeted something to the effect of "sounds like ROR wants to test the market" immediately after his comments, and he reiterated that on the Dangle podcast yesterday. Like you, I really don't know what code words he apparently heard that would indicate that. But also don't think it's anywhere close to a slam dunk that he'll return.

At most, it's when ROR said he hasn't made any decisions and it's something he'll be thinking over in the coming weeks - but, that's a pretty standard line used by basically every pending UFA regardless of their intentions. That's just protecting your negotiating position.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Nylander awaiting some insurance clearance last I heard, but Timoth is already cooking

I hope Lily gets more of a green light to step up offensively next season. I get that growing his defensive game is obviously very important and will help his career in the long run, but I sorta feel like they've been trying to force him into more of a "defensive defenceman" role since his time with the Marlies. Which of course did start with Keefe even back then.

 

[Bender]

Whatever is going on with Dubas I do hope the organization makes a move sooner than later.  This off-season is too important to have the GM position in flux like this

What if they had made it to the conference finals? Then what?

That was a key part of the reason for me to extend him. Not so much because of a few weeks. But because a new guy coming in has a lot to get his head around. Dubas is intimately knowledgeable of the talent on the team, the staff, where they fell short, etc. That is not possible to absorb very well between now and July 1. Draft is coming up and the new GM won't know the scouts, etc. New GM won't know the organizational talent as well, their health, their development progress, etc. Trade talks are back to square one. etc.

It is a different situation than when a team has fallen short and it is time for a rebuild or significant retooling. That GM has plenty of time to get oriented. The Leafs are a 4th place team that still has a window and needs some adjustments. A Sam Pollack clone would have trouble taking over in the first year. The haste to get up to speed makes it more likely to make some mistakes.

Dubas can carry on discussions with the UFA's or RFA's agents. New GM has to start up without the intimate knowledge of what has gone on with the player. Ditto for trade discussions with GMs. Or with his scouts and staff.

They would have to find a GM. I guess Shanahan or Pridham would be interim if he isn't leaving for Calgary. Then they probably have to find a coach.

I doubt this problem with Dubas will be left unresolved very long.

40 days to NHL draft
43 days to July 1.

How is this specifically a problem for the Leafs though? GMs and coaches are let go all the time at the end of the season. I understand there are a lot of things to do during this offseason but so what?

And at the end of the day his heart is either in it or it's not, and if not we have to move on. It's that simple. Rightly or wrongly to me he looks like a farmer who got too close to his pigs. I mean, just the fact that they weren't even entertaining trade offers for their stars (according to CJ) is grounds for dismissal.

 

[Bender]

I really enjoyed having RoR, hoping that he signs a favorable deal with the Leafs to stay.

I think he's reading way too much into boring locker room clear-out interviews but Chris Johnston seems pretty certain that ROR isn't coming back. I will say though as like the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th best available UFA centre it would make a lot of sense for O'Reilly to check out what the market has to offer. I'm not as certain he'll be back as I'd like to be, which could be a big problem.

And I mean not to sound rude, but he does seem like a declining asset. I don't want a mini-Tavares deal.

 

[ZBBM]

I really enjoyed having RoR, hoping that he signs a favorable deal with the Leafs to stay.

I think he's reading way too much into boring locker room clear-out interviews but Chris Johnston seems pretty certain that ROR isn't coming back. I will say though as like the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th best available UFA centre it would make a lot of sense for O'Reilly to check out what the market has to offer. I'm not as certain he'll be back as I'd like to be, which could be a big problem.

And I mean not to sound rude, but he does seem like a declining asset. I don't want a mini-Tavares deal.

For all the flak the core 4 are taking here and elsewhere, aside from the tying goal in R1 what did he do offensively?  Not much.  His best game as a Leaf was his very first; after that he was solid but meh.

I like him plenty but not at the money he will command elsewhere.

I don't think the Leafs need to bring in any more "veteran leaders" at the TDL.  It hasn't moved the needle yet and every one of those acquisitions made the team slower.  More Knies types, please.