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2024-25 Toronto Maple Leafs General Discussion

After last night's hat trick...... I'm hearing numbers like $7m to 9m+ potential offersheets for Matthew Knies (possibley Bruins, Hawks, Habs, Utah, Penguins plus others).

Big decisions to be made this summer for management and ownership as to who stays and who goes..... between Knies, Tavares, Marner. All three are competing and producing spectacular results in their contract year....... i think due to this competitive situation.

The proof will be in the playoffs.

My money on Knies. He's maturing to be the type of leader Toronto fans respect....over the other two.....and he has shown the capacity to dig deep in important games (like last night). This is the exact quality the Leafs have lacked in prior seasons.

But I think Rogers money will be on the "show pony" Marner who's star status sells corporate seats and jerseys and is a safer bet.
 
Ozzie said:
Not having depth is not a Berube issue......it's a Rogers and Shanahan issue (of course executed by Dubas).

By 2020 and 2021 playoffs this problem and weakness became very very apparent. Ownership and Owners rep did nothing about it. So nothing changed.
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I think they have enough to ice three competitive lines. Core 4 over 3. Scoring should be a problem with 4 guys making $11M upfront.
 
https://twitter.com/x/status/1910396212198383699
https://twitter.com/x/status/1910399080892604571
Smith's an overpowering physical presence and a fluid skater. A deep, clean stride and powerful crossover close distance on opponents fast. His defensive skating " knees bent, chest up, and c-cuts and heel pushes over crossovers " steadily guides opponents into the boards, right into a heavy shoulder.
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-EliteProspects 2023 NHL Draft Guide
Originally drafted by the Oshawa Generals, Blake Smith was traded away after appearing in 19 games in the 2022-3 season to the Firebirds (Ben Danford's first season).

https://twitter.com/x/status/1910399280751268198
 
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cabber24 said:
I think they have enough to ice three competitive lines. Core 4 over 3. Scoring should be a problem with 4 guys making $11M upfront.
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Yes you are correct. Sorry I forgot about that option because it seems to be an unwritten rule that you can't drop any of the Core4 to L3 spanning pretty much the past 5 years.

Although I do recall there were very limited times 88 and 91 played on L3...... but I could be mistaken. If that's the case... then the unwritten rule is 34 and 16 are not permitted to drop to L3.

Super obvious that 4 guys should be spread across 3 lines against certain rivals in the playoffs, and there are 82 games to prepare for that.....which Berube didn't do. I don't think its a Berube issue given its been something that pre-dates him.
 
Spotlight is on Knies hatty last night against Tampa.... but he could have also had a hatty against Columbus a couple of games earlier. Even as a sophomore he's learned to kick it into gear at the right time.

 
CarltonTheBear said:
Was the best shot blocker from the Western conference in the 24/25 OHL's coaches poll (Ben Danford was tops in the East).
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Unless he gets traded away, the two former Oshawa Generals can reunite on the Marlies in 2027 (or earlier on the Leafs if things go very right for them and very wrong for some NHLers).
 
Ozzie said:
Yes you are correct. Sorry I forgot about that option because it seems to be an unwritten rule that you can't drop any of the Core4 to L3 spanning pretty much the past 5 years.

Although I do recall there were very limited times 88 and 91 played on L3...... but I could be mistaken. If that's the case... then the unwritten rule is 34 and 16 are not permitted to drop to L3.

Super obvious that 4 guys should be spread across 3 lines against certain rivals in the playoffs, and there are 82 games to prepare for that.....which Berube didn't do. I don't think its a Berube issue given its been something that pre-dates him.
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It's a total rerun upfront. Why would we expect anything else? I don't expect much scoring from the Leafs come playoff time. What's changed upfront?
 
cabber24 said:
It's a total rerun upfront. Why would we expect anything else? I don't expect much scoring from the Leafs come playoff time. What's changed upfront?
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While I definitely get and empathize with where you're coming from, the difference will have to be in coaching + buy-in by personnel.

Knies very nearly a completely different player than last year, and Berube's system favours his (and Tavares') playstyle. Keefe's system was great for Marner putting up regular season points (holding onto the puck at the perimeter until something opens, maybe), but it gets stomped out easily in the playoffs when defenses just sit on Matthews and let Marner fritter away puck time.

The difference this year is the Leafs are attacking the net more quickly; there is a lot less perimeter pussyfooting around. We saw it against Tampa last night when they caused turnovers and jumped on those chances to hit the net fast before the defenses could set up.
 
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cabber24 said:
It's a total rerun upfront. Why would we expect anything else? I don't expect much scoring from the Leafs come playoff time. What's changed upfront?
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Exactly. You hit the nail on the head.

Nothing has changed with the key people upfront. So we should not expect the results in the playoffs to change in terms of scoring (plus I would add there haven't been changes in leadership, and the ability of the highest paid players to dig deep when the ice gets smaller and the opposition gets nasty in order to win).

This is not on the players. This is on ownership.... specifically Rogers and Shanahan. It's been obvious for just about every Leaf fan since 2021 this is the main problem with the Matthews Era construction. Nothing was done about it.
 
Losing first rounds has been frustrating and all, but the level of pessimism about a team currently in first place is wild to me.

Over the 6 years (not eight) since John Tavares joined the roster, the Leafs have played in 4 game 7s in their 5 first round exits.... and the 5th was a 5 game series in a best of 5 as part of the Covid season. 3 of those game 7s have been with eventual Eastern Conference champs.

If you want some differences up front, other (!) than the emergence of Matthew Knies as a genuine top line power forward and McMann as a genuine secondary scoring threat, look at the powerplay. In last year's (7 game) loss to the Bruins, the PP went 1/21. After some initial struggles to start the season, since the calendar turned to 2025, the Leafs have the 2nd best PP in the NHL behind Vegas.

Does any of this guarantee playoff success, or even a path out of the first round? Of course not. The theme of the core 4 Leafs isn't that they're terrible, it's that they find ways not to win.

But this team is pretty good.
 
Ozzie said:
After last night's hat trick...... I'm hearing numbers like $7m to 9m+ potential offersheets for Matthew Knies (possibley Bruins, Hawks, Habs, Utah, Penguins plus others).
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Screen-Shot-2022-07-11-at-3.14.29-PM.png



I would be ok with the last 2 compensations. HOWEVER, the 6.3 to 8.4 is where the Leafs can get really corned.
That said, they should re-sign Knies ASAP.
 
Washington beats Carolina in OT to clinch 1st in the East.
Carolina loses in OT to Washington to move 3 points back of the Leafs for the 2nd best record in the East.
Florida wins to move 4 points back of the Leafs. Magic Number remains 3 (2 if the Leafs win a game in Regulation)

Columbus wins to stay alive. They are 6 points back of Montreal with 4 games remaining. Their elimination number is 3 but a Regulation win by Montreal will eliminate them on tiebreakers.
New York wins to stay alive. They are 6 points back of Montreal with 3 games remaining. Their elimination number is 1.
The Islanders and Red Wings lose bringing their elimination number to 1 (no chance for either team to play the Leafs).
Detroit lost, falling 8 points back of Montreal with 4 games remaining. Their elimination number is 1.

The Leafs could still play any of Florida, Tampa, Ottawa or Montreal in the first round.

Montreal @ Ottawa
- A Montreal regulation win clinches a playoff spot for the Habs
- A Montreal regulation win eliminates Ottawa's ability to move up to A3
- A Montreal overtime/shootout win eliminates Ottawa's ability to move up to A2

Detroit @ Tampa
- A Tampa win would move them within 1 point of Toronto
- A Tampa point guarantees they finish no worse than A3
 
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