2024 Offseason Thread: Changes

[Highlander]

Wasn't there some talk of a Russian winger being signed as a free agent? Played on the same team as one of our other Russia KHL prospects.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Wasn't there some talk of a Russian winger being signed as a free agent? Played on the same team as one of our other Russia KHL prospects.

Probably thinking of Maxim Tsyplakov. He signed with the Islanders last month.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Mirtle said today he's hearing that the Leafs will probably have interest in David Perron this offseason. Not exactly a surprise, and someone lots of people pointed at once Berube was hired.

Interesting thing about Perron is that as a 36-year old he'll be eligible for performance bonuses on a 1-year contract. It's possible he'll be looking for a 2-year deal but if he has to settle for 1 bonuses would be a way to get him signed to a possible bargain number this season and have the extra stuff pushed down the line to 25/26 when there will be even more cap space.

 

[Bill_Berg]

Mirtle also said mutual interest between Laurent Brossoit and the Leafs. He would be my first choice in the absence of an opportunity to get a solid #1.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Mirtle also said mutual interest between Laurent Brossoit and the Leafs. He would be my first choice in the absence of an opportunity to get a solid #1.

Yeah I mean unless the Leafs go big name hunting for a goalie via trade (which is probably unlikely for a variety of reasons) I think it's a very safe bet they end up with one of Brossoit or Stolarz this offseason. And there aren't even a ton of teams looking for a 1B type goalie right now too so even though they're technically the two best UFA goalies available the bidding wars on them shouldn't get too bad hopefully.

 

[L K]

Mirtle also said mutual interest between Laurent Brossoit and the Leafs. He would be my first choice in the absence of an opportunity to get a solid #1.

I'm stealing content from looking at a Reddit feed but his twitter feed is ummm....a bit of a culture shift for the Leafs to go into that kind of belief system.  It's very Alex Jones/Andrew Tate forward.

 

[Bill_Berg]

Mirtle also said mutual interest between Laurent Brossoit and the Leafs. He would be my first choice in the absence of an opportunity to get a solid #1.

I'm stealing content from looking at a Reddit feed but his twitter feed is ummm....a bit of a culture shift for the Leafs to go into that kind of belief system.  It's very Alex Jones/Andrew Tate forward.

I can't find what you may be referring to. His Twitter feed seems to be fine. Not many posts but still shows him as a Golden Knight. I don't see any conspiracy stuff at all.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Mirtle also said mutual interest between Laurent Brossoit and the Leafs. He would be my first choice in the absence of an opportunity to get a solid #1.

I'm stealing content from looking at a Reddit feed but his twitter feed is ummm....a bit of a culture shift for the Leafs to go into that kind of belief system.  It's very Alex Jones/Andrew Tate forward.

I can't find what you may be referring to. His Twitter feed seems to be fine. Not many posts but still shows him as a Golden Knight. I don't see any conspiracy stuff at all.

Just checked, his list of followers is what LK would be referring to. I've learned to generally just accept that lots if not most hockey players will have opinions out there that I strongly disagree with. Like Bertuzzi's "life choice" over choosing not to get a certain something doesn't change how I felt about him as a hockey player ultimately, same goes for players following certain politicians or influencers really now. Openly being an infowars guy is probably where I'd draw the line though. Go Stolarz, I guess.

 

[Bill_Berg]

Mirtle also said mutual interest between Laurent Brossoit and the Leafs. He would be my first choice in the absence of an opportunity to get a solid #1.

I'm stealing content from looking at a Reddit feed but his twitter feed is ummm....a bit of a culture shift for the Leafs to go into that kind of belief system.  It's very Alex Jones/Andrew Tate forward.

I can't find what you may be referring to. His Twitter feed seems to be fine. Not many posts but still shows him as a Golden Knight. I don't see any conspiracy stuff at all.

Just checked, his list of followers is what LK would be referring to. I've learned to generally just accept that lots if not most hockey players will have opinions out there that I strongly disagree with. Like Bertuzzi's "life choice" over choosing not to get a certain something doesn't change how I felt about him as a hockey player ultimately, same goes for players following certain politicians or influencers really now. Openly being an infowars guy is probably where I'd draw the line though. Go Stolarz, I guess.

Ug, wish I didn't know that now lol.

 

[herman]

Just going off my own definitions here, but the worst person twitter followed by:
Matthews: David Portnoy
Nylander: Jeremy Bracco/Patrick Kane
Tavares: lol
Marner: toss up between Paul Bissonnette (kind of uncouth?) and Marcus Stroman (clipped his dog's ears and tail).

Oddly, Matthews and Nylander do not follow Marner. Tavares follows Marner and the other two. Marner follows AM and JT but not WN.

 

[L K]

Mirtle also said mutual interest between Laurent Brossoit and the Leafs. He would be my first choice in the absence of an opportunity to get a solid #1.

I'm stealing content from looking at a Reddit feed but his twitter feed is ummm....a bit of a culture shift for the Leafs to go into that kind of belief system.  It's very Alex Jones/Andrew Tate forward.

I can't find what you may be referring to. His Twitter feed seems to be fine. Not many posts but still shows him as a Golden Knight. I don't see any conspiracy stuff at all.

Just checked, his list of followers is what LK would be referring to. I've learned to generally just accept that lots if not most hockey players will have opinions out there that I strongly disagree with. Like Bertuzzi's "life choice" over choosing not to get a certain something doesn't change how I felt about him as a hockey player ultimately, same goes for players following certain politicians or influencers really now. Openly being an infowars guy is probably where I'd draw the line though. Go Stolarz, I guess.

In fairness, simply following them doesn't necessarily mean he's a bad person...but when you have Infowars, and Project Veritas and Andrew Tate...that's not an accidental follow.  Infowars is a pretty hard line "not tolerable to me" point though with the harassment of Sandy Hook victims/families.

 

[ZBBM]

If you are saying Broissant follows Infowars then he's 100x worse than Bertuzzi, who was merely reprehensible.  Following Alex Jones is disqualifying, period.

 

[dappleganger]

I will accept following Alex Jones if it means stopping the puck at an elite level.

I AM NOT a follower of Alex Jones, like LK said, he's made despicable claims on SH, etc. He's also been right about a few things too. 

Maybe he follows those accounts for the "LOLs"?

 

[bustaheims]

I will accept following Alex Jones if it means stopping the puck at an elite level.

The problem there is that Brossoit really only does that as a traditional backup - and not super consistently at that, either. Never started more than 22 games in a season, has mostly alternated between good and bad seasons, and he?s already 31, so it?s not like he?s a young guy transitioning into a starting role. Not that Stolarz is much different, but he doesn?t come with the conspiracy minded odour Brossoit does.

 

[IJustLurkHere]

Declarations aren?t really persuasive arguments. We should also note that we?ve really only seen Marner in a playstyle that was literally designed to be give Marner the puck. However good Marner plays, I think it?s self-evident it does not match up with his expected asking price and barely even matches his current cap hit.

That's a generous serving of irony there.

In the hypothetical where we replace Marner's $11M with 2x $5.5 players, that's no guarantee of quality. Last year the leafs spent $5.5M on Tyler Bertuzzi and $5M on TJ Brodie. If that's what the Leafs got for Marner, that does not read as an improvement to me. I am yet to be persuaded that the lure of flexibility isn't the mirage of grass appearing greener on the other side. Who are the 2x$5.5M Dman and Goalie combo who will make us forget about Marner?

Star players and UFAs aren't where we'll find excessive value for money - that would take a Minten or a Cowan turning into an NHLer, Knies emerging as a genuine power scoring threat, or another diamond in the rough Bobby McMann style. But on the level of value we need just to prevent moving backwards, Marner's injury interrupted year delivered 26 goals and 59 assists in 69 games. I think it's self-evident that isn't an easy combiniation of value to replace.

So here's my unpersuasive declaration: Solid choices with the money that comes from Bertuzzi, Domi, Brodie and Samsonov's expiring contracts is more likely to move the needle in a positive direction for 24-25 and beyond than cutting ties with Marner for a couple of $5.5M rolls of the dice.

 

[herman]

That's a generous serving of irony there.

In the hypothetical where we replace Marner's $11M with 2x $5.5 players, that's no guarantee of quality. Last year the leafs spent $5.5M on Tyler Bertuzzi and $5M on TJ Brodie. If that's what the Leafs got for Marner, that does not read as an improvement to me. I am yet to be persuaded that the lure of flexibility isn't the mirage of grass appearing greener on the other side. Who are the 2x$5.5M Dman and Goalie combo who will make us forget about Marner?

Star players and UFAs aren't where we'll find excessive value for money - that would take a Minten or a Cowan turning into an NHLer, Knies emerging as a genuine power scoring threat, or another diamond in the rough Bobby McMann style. But on the level of value we need just to prevent moving backwards, Marner's injury interrupted year delivered 26 goals and 59 assists in 69 games. I think it's self-evident that isn't an easy combination of value to replace.

So here's my unpersuasive declaration: Solid choices with the money that comes from Bertuzzi, Domi, Brodie and Samsonov's expiring contracts is more likely to move the needle in a positive direction for 24-25 and beyond than cutting ties with Marner for a couple of $5.5M rolls of the dice.

a) thanks for engaging and not just lurking!
b) thanks for bringing in details and data to the party
c) glad you caught the irony, but I really didn't want to repeat 2 years of posts

The thing a Marner trade can yield that UFA shopping cannot, is the opportunity to pull in a promising prospect outside of the draft, presumably in positions of organizational weakness (C, puck moving RD). Like you said yourself, excess value vs cap hit, and extending the success window more sustainably. Also, not having to deal with a Marner extension negotiation ever again, which I've already stated previously, is a win in and of itself.

Granted this is quite a small needle to thread (which is why I preferred to do it last offseason, but alas here we are). Aside from that, through a combination of the trade return and UFA, the team really needs to bolster centre and defense to drive play.

What Marner brings to the table is either replaceable in aggregate or not what the team feels it needs going forward, and certainly not something they want to pile 13M+ on. The point totals are intriguing, but they don't really tell the complete story, and really should serve as a selling point to the Leafs' advantage. The timing of the cap going up is also quite fortuitous for Marner and also for sign-and-trade opportunities (San Jose would offer 15M easily if they were offering Tavares 13M back in 2018). Other GMs/owners remember the Tkachuk trade and should be salivating for a chance at another prime-aged London Knight alumnus. The Leafs need to not fear Treliving's involvement in that, but actually leverage his experience to their advantage.

 

[herman]

11th in points over the last 3 years (7th in ppg), plays PK/PP, selke voting, 12th highest cap hit. 2nd straight season of 101-point pace.

"barely" matches is a thinly veiled insult. His play/value clearly matches his cap hit.

Go ahead and continue to be critical of his play, his fit, whether he or multiple lesser players are better, etc. But can you admit he's an extremely talented, valuable player who earns his cap hit?

We get you don't like him, but your criticism is becoming comical at this point.

I say how talented he is plenty of times. You know full well I'm not one of the people who moralize that he has no effort, or doesn't care, or is soft or whatever; he tries extremely hard*, he loves the team, and actually is pretty good at taking contact and using it to his advantage most of the time.

Unfortunately, his regular season strengths (puck possession, threading seam passes) is exploited in the playoffs and neuters his entire line's ability to be effective. Part of it is coaching a style that requires like 8 precision passes to put the puck on net from a high danger area (finesse/glory), and part of it is when Marner recognizes he has no options and just plays it safe, and part of it is outright losing the puck too easily because of his long stick and comfort zone with the puck directly in front. Marner gets like 55+%** of the puck possession time. It gets very tiring mentally and physically to try to have a team play that way against set playoff defense.

* I also have a theory that the players fans usually believe are always giving full effort, are usually bad skaters, but that's for another time.
** this is just a number I pulled out of my butt, but I, uh, watch the games.

 

[Champ Kind]

So here's my unpersuasive declaration: Solid choices with the money that comes from Bertuzzi, Domi, Brodie and Samsonov's expiring contracts is more likely to move the needle in a positive direction for 24-25 and beyond than cutting ties with Marner for a couple of $5.5M rolls of the dice.

Very good points, but why have you left this as an either/or situation?  What would the B, D, B & S money AND the Marner  money do?  My rough math suggests that would offer about $28M to spend, plus the potential for impactful players returning in any deal.  I would also say that the Leafs, in the aggregate, would be a better balanced team spending Marner's $11M on Tuevo Teravainen and Chandler Stephenson (give or take, of course).

I don't disagree with all who say trading elite talent is unpalatable, especially when you're trading them from a position of relative weakness.  In fact, I agree with this position outright.  But, for me, the outcomes of keeping Marner are even less appetizing.  Keep him this year and he walks next summer and the only benefit is the $10.9 in cap space.  Sign him for the $12.5+ he will demand and it will ensure - and I'm showing my bias here - the last eight years of playoffs Groundhog Day will continue.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

So I'll be honest, I haven't been paying very close attention to this because I think it's about 75% noise being caused by the media's desire for blood. This has fueled the fans to call for Marner's head on a spike. He wasn't incredible in the playoffs by any means but how he's the only one being thrown under the bus(other than Keefe) is beyond me.

I'm not saying "do not trade Marner in any circumstance" but I personally think that if the team is dealing from a spot of "but what if he walks away from the team for nothing standpoint" than they're not a team that is really interested in winning a championship.

 

[Bender]

So I'll be honest, I haven't been paying very close attention to this because I think it's about 75% noise being caused by the media's desire for blood. This has fueled the fans to call for Marner's head on a spike. He wasn't incredible in the playoffs by any means but how he's the only one being thrown under the bus(other than Keefe) is beyond me.

I'm not saying "do not trade Marner in any circumstance" but I personally think that if the team is dealing from a spot of "but what if he walks away from the team for nothing standpoint" than they're not a team that is really interested in winning a championship.

Yup, it's all the media's fault.

Also I disagree. Poor asset management has put the Leafs where they are. Walking guys to free agency has put the Leafs where they are. You need assets in order to take big swings, and the Leafs have been bleeding assets for years.