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2024 Offseason Thread: Changes

MLHS has some decent recaps of Matthews & Nylander's seasons.  No revelations: Both are gamebreakers, Matthews needs to bring it in the playoffs, that's all he has left to prove, and Nylander still cheats for offense.
 
Bender said:
OldTimeHockey said:
So I'll be honest, I haven't been paying very close attention to this because I think it's about 75% noise being caused by the media's desire for blood. This has fueled the fans to call for Marner's head on a spike. He wasn't incredible in the playoffs by any means but how he's the only one being thrown under the bus(other than Keefe) is beyond me.

I'm not saying "do not trade Marner in any circumstance" but I personally think that if the team is dealing from a spot of "but what if he walks away from the team for nothing standpoint" than they're not a team that is really interested in winning a championship.

Yup, it's all the media's fault.

Also I disagree. Poor asset management has put the Leafs where they are. Walking guys to free agency has put the Leafs where they are. You need assets in order to take big swings, and the Leafs have been bleeding assets for years.

Maybe I?m missing something but who did the leafs walk to free agency that led them to ?where they are now??
 
If Marner was signed and Nylander was going into his last year I am confident everyone would be discussing trading Nylander right now. "He disappears for games at a time", "he doesn't care", "he is not good defensively"... this would be the dialogue. Cap/core reallocation is the discussion not specifically Marner.
 
cabber24 said:
If Marner was signed and Nylander was going into his last year I am confident everyone would be discussing trading Nylander right now. "He disappears for games at a time", "he doesn't care", "he is not good defensively"... this would be the dialogue. Cap/core reallocation is the discussion not specifically Marner.

I mean this isn?t speculation. This discussion was literally happening prior to Nylander signing. Besides, of the 4, up until last season, Nylander was the one that most wanted to punt out of town.
 
Joe said:
Bender said:
OldTimeHockey said:
So I'll be honest, I haven't been paying very close attention to this because I think it's about 75% noise being caused by the media's desire for blood. This has fueled the fans to call for Marner's head on a spike. He wasn't incredible in the playoffs by any means but how he's the only one being thrown under the bus(other than Keefe) is beyond me.

I'm not saying "do not trade Marner in any circumstance" but I personally think that if the team is dealing from a spot of "but what if he walks away from the team for nothing standpoint" than they're not a team that is really interested in winning a championship.

Yup, it's all the media's fault.

Also I disagree. Poor asset management has put the Leafs where they are. Walking guys to free agency has put the Leafs where they are. You need assets in order to take big swings, and the Leafs have been bleeding assets for years.

Maybe I?m missing something but who did the leafs walk to free agency that led them to ?where they are now??

I?m guessing this is referring back to JVR and Bozak etc
 
Joe said:
Bender said:
OldTimeHockey said:
So I'll be honest, I haven't been paying very close attention to this because I think it's about 75% noise being caused by the media's desire for blood. This has fueled the fans to call for Marner's head on a spike. He wasn't incredible in the playoffs by any means but how he's the only one being thrown under the bus(other than Keefe) is beyond me.

I'm not saying "do not trade Marner in any circumstance" but I personally think that if the team is dealing from a spot of "but what if he walks away from the team for nothing standpoint" than they're not a team that is really interested in winning a championship.

Yup, it's all the media's fault.

Also I disagree. Poor asset management has put the Leafs where they are. Walking guys to free agency has put the Leafs where they are. You need assets in order to take big swings, and the Leafs have been bleeding assets for years.

Maybe I?m missing something but who did the leafs walk to free agency that led them to ?where they are now??

Obviously it's not the reason, there's lots of reasons why the Leafs are where they are, but I don't buy the whole own rental idea and that we should hang on to expiring contracts (in this case Marner) or we're not serious about winning. Just off the top of my head we've walked Bozak, JVR, Barrie, Kerfoot etc.

I don't understand how worrying about assets walking for nothing means you aren't serious about winning. Is that how people feel if we don't use all our draft capital for rentals too?

*Edit I should probably rephrase my stance as the Leafs are where they are in large part due to poor asset management, of which walking guys to free agency is a subsection of that.
 
Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate said:
Nylander still cheats for offense

It's something built into the Leafs structure (and most teams do this) called 'pushing the pace' or 'flying the zone'.
https://jhanhky.substack.com/p/how-tor-created-rush-offense-in-game

Standard in Babcock's time with the Leafs was JvR at the opposing blueline waiting for a flip out by Zaitsev or whoever. Usually hidden from the broadcast angles when they focus on the puck carrier on breakouts.

You remember Willy doing it because he tends to make something happen with it.
 
Arn said:
Joe said:
Bender said:
OldTimeHockey said:
So I'll be honest, I haven't been paying very close attention to this because I think it's about 75% noise being caused by the media's desire for blood. This has fueled the fans to call for Marner's head on a spike. He wasn't incredible in the playoffs by any means but how he's the only one being thrown under the bus(other than Keefe) is beyond me.

I'm not saying "do not trade Marner in any circumstance" but I personally think that if the team is dealing from a spot of "but what if he walks away from the team for nothing standpoint" than they're not a team that is really interested in winning a championship.

Yup, it's all the media's fault.

Also I disagree. Poor asset management has put the Leafs where they are. Walking guys to free agency has put the Leafs where they are. You need assets in order to take big swings, and the Leafs have been bleeding assets for years.

Maybe I?m missing something but who did the leafs walk to free agency that led them to ?where they are now??

I?m guessing this is referring back to JVR and Bozak etc

Oh wow. I?d forgotten about those guys. I suppose the only existing link you could blame that on is shanahan. Because that predates Dubas.
 
Bender said:
Obviously it's not the reason, there's lots of reasons why the Leafs are where they are, but I don't buy the whole own rental idea and that we should hang on to expiring contracts (in this case Marner) or we're not serious about winning. Just off the top of my head we've walked Bozak, JVR, Barrie, Kerfoot etc.

I don't understand how worrying about assets walking for nothing means you aren't serious about winning. Is that how people feel if we don't use all our draft capital for rentals too?

*Edit I should probably rephrase my stance as the Leafs are where they are in large part due to poor asset management, of which walking guys to free agency is a subsection of that.

I was genuinely asking because I didn?t know where you were going with that point.

I?d agree that it?s a factor. But I don?t think it?s a leading one.

If I were to oversimplify this it?s that the team got too good too fast and then the subsequent years they were blowing picks on deadline acquisitions, when they should have kept building up through the draft. If you ask me, that?s the biggest mistake they made.

Keeping Marner, Matthews nylander and even Tavares could have been sustainable had they not acted like they were a move away from a cup every season.
 
Rob said:
$12.5 x 8 and be done with it. 

This is where I've been at for a long time now.  This can be the easiest negotiation by offering him $100 million over eight years and just be done with it.
 
Peter D. said:
Rob said:
$12.5 x 8 and be done with it. 

This is where I've been at for a long time now.  This can be the easiest negotiation by offering him $100 million over eight years and just be done with it.
The third-highest cap hit in the league is what you're proposing, MACKINNON money.
 
cabber24 said:
Peter D. said:
Rob said:
$12.5 x 8 and be done with it. 

This is where I've been at for a long time now.  This can be the easiest negotiation by offering him $100 million over eight years and just be done with it.
The third-highest cap hit in the league is what you're proposing, MACKINNON money.

If Mackinon were being signed this year he?s be getting more. I know you know that matters for context.
 
Marner would not take 12.5M x 8.

Marner will open his asking price at 15M and probably let it come down to ~14M+ x 8 years because Matthews got a bit over 15% of the 88M cap, and it's likely a 93M cap when Marner's next contract kicks in.

Is anyone here good with that?
 
Joe said:
cabber24 said:
Peter D. said:
Rob said:
$12.5 x 8 and be done with it. 

This is where I've been at for a long time now.  This can be the easiest negotiation by offering him $100 million over eight years and just be done with it.
The third-highest cap hit in the league is what you're proposing, MACKINNON money.

If Mackinon were being signed this year he?s be getting more. I know you know that matters for context.
Signed in September 2022. I think what the cap projections were at the time has come to fruition so I do believe it's a relevant comparison. Yes, the cap increase this coming season is a little higher than projected but close to the projected raise.
 
herman said:
Marner would not take 12.5M x 8.

Marner will open his asking price at 15M and probably let it come down to ~14M+ x 8 years because Matthews got a bit over 15% of the 88M cap, and it's likely a 93M cap when Marner's next contract kicks in.

Is anyone here good with that?
Your post seems comical but probably not far off reality.

NO, I am not good with that.
 
cabber24 said:
herman said:
Marner would not take 12.5M x 8.

Marner will open his asking price at 15M and probably let it come down to ~14M+ x 8 years because Matthews got a bit over 15% of the 88M cap, and it's likely a 93M cap when Marner's next contract kicks in.

Is anyone here good with that?
Your post seems comical but probably not far off reality.

NO, I am not good with that.

It's not comedy. The tactic Ferris used in the last negotiation was that Matthews was the only comparable and basically just said "give Mitch the Matthews deal" for the whole offseason before conceding like half a mil to get a bit more term. My read on the negotiation was that Dubas was trying to keep it to start with 9 and Ferris was saying 11+ the whole way until Marner said do something now, and Shanahan (I theorize) stepped in to push it to 10.9. You could see how pissed Dubas was at that presser lol

[youtube]0u-dZy9nOlo[/youtube]
 
cabber24 said:
Peter D. said:
Rob said:
$12.5 x 8 and be done with it. 

This is where I've been at for a long time now.  This can be the easiest negotiation by offering him $100 million over eight years and just be done with it.
The third-highest cap hit in the league is what you're proposing, MACKINNON money.

He's going to be looking for a raise to his $10.903 million he earns now.  He doesn't deserve to be paid more than Matthews, nor do I think will do so based on principle, but he will be seeking to make more than Nylander.  And with salaries only going to be escalating now that the cap is on the upswing again, he's going to be the benefactor of such along with all the upcoming free agents in the coming years.

I think that number is a good middle ground and clean and easy to get done. 

Whether we think he is worth that much is a different topic altogether.  But I'd much rather pay him that money than try and chisel him to a number he won't agree to where we risk losing him.  Talents like him are not easy to find and/or replace.
 
cabber24 said:
Joe said:
cabber24 said:
Peter D. said:
Rob said:
$12.5 x 8 and be done with it. 

This is where I've been at for a long time now.  This can be the easiest negotiation by offering him $100 million over eight years and just be done with it.
The third-highest cap hit in the league is what you're proposing, MACKINNON money.

If Mackinon were being signed this year he?s be getting more. I know you know that matters for context.
Signed in September 2022. I think what the cap projections were at the time has come to fruition so I do believe it's a relevant comparison. Yes, the cap increase this coming season is a little higher than projected but close to the projected raise.

I disagree. This is exactly why Matthews chose a shorter contract, so he could maximize value upon renewal. If mackinnon were being signed this season he?d be looking for Matthews money, if not more.

 
Bender said:
Joe said:
Bender said:
OldTimeHockey said:
So I'll be honest, I haven't been paying very close attention to this because I think it's about 75% noise being caused by the media's desire for blood. This has fueled the fans to call for Marner's head on a spike. He wasn't incredible in the playoffs by any means but how he's the only one being thrown under the bus(other than Keefe) is beyond me.

I'm not saying "do not trade Marner in any circumstance" but I personally think that if the team is dealing from a spot of "but what if he walks away from the team for nothing standpoint" than they're not a team that is really interested in winning a championship.

Yup, it's all the media's fault.

Also I disagree. Poor asset management has put the Leafs where they are. Walking guys to free agency has put the Leafs where they are. You need assets in order to take big swings, and the Leafs have been bleeding assets for years.

Maybe I?m missing something but who did the leafs walk to free agency that led them to ?where they are now??

Obviously it's not the reason, there's lots of reasons why the Leafs are where they are, but I don't buy the whole own rental idea and that we should hang on to expiring contracts (in this case Marner) or we're not serious about winning. Just off the top of my head we've walked Bozak, JVR, Barrie, Kerfoot etc.

I don't understand how worrying about assets walking for nothing means you aren't serious about winning. Is that how people feel if we don't use all our draft capital for rentals too?

*Edit I should probably rephrase my stance as the Leafs are where they are in large part due to poor asset management, of which walking guys to free agency is a subsection of that.

I typed a response to your original "it's the media's fault" response but walked away due to work getting in the way.

I didn't say that the media is at fault for where the Leafs are right now. I said the way this has eaten up all the talk in newspapers, broadcasts, podcasts and subsequently the workplaces and pubs is the media driving the conversation. I realize that it's an item that has to be dealt with but Marner doesn't become such a bum if the media(and herman) don't drive it down the throats of everyone at home.

In regards to the poor asset management problem, I was going to come back with "what assets walked for nothing", but that's already been asked. Like them, I forgot about JVR and Bozak..and also Barrie and Kerfoot. While I agree with you that you have to manage your assets and get something for them when you see they're going to walk for nothing, I also think you have to examine where those players fit in your overall structure and where your team is at in terms of legitimately competing to win in the playoffs. Despite their success or lack of success, the Leafs have repeatedly gone into the playoffs as competitive teams. Hindsight says their choices didn't work out, but I don't think trading Kerfoot for a 3rd rounder would have helped maximize that success. Now, Marner would bring in a much larger prize, so in that sense, it's definitely something you have to look at. But, he would also create a much bigger hole than any of the above assets, so that has to weigh heavily on your decision.
 
I mean, it's one thing to let your UFA's walk, it's quite another to just keep dealing picks and prospects for rentals.  That is really what has messed up this team.  No cheap talent.  They have to keep going to the UFA market, overpaying for marginal talent. 

Sure, it gets to the point where you may not be able to keep all your homegrown talent.  That is when you take advantage of dealing from a position of strength. Dealing those players you can't afford for what you really need, or for more picks. 

This team is bereft of any prospects that look like a sure NHL'ers except for Cowan.  Nothing on defense, and nothing in goal.  Hildeby is still a big question mark. 
 

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