2025 Offseason Thread: Spring Cleaning

[mr grieves]

That’s possibly a fair push back. I haven’t looked in detail at cap space, but 3 of the “favourites” for spots for him to land I’ve seen floated are Carolina, LA and Vegas.

Going by Puckpedia Carolina have $28m and 3 roster spots to fill, LA $22m and 2 spots to fill. I could see them pay him and him make a difference to those teams.

Fair. Yeah, it's a bold (i.e. not fully investigated) predication...

I'm aware that the most contender-y of Marner's suitors might not have other core pieces on market contracts. Certainly, the Leafs have been unique in the league in having 4 players with 8-figure AAVs. Maybe Mitch plus some savings among the fewer other stars leaves enough cap space to round out the roster, and CAR, LAK, of VGK get that mix of high-end/cost talent and good depth that's eluded the Leafs for the last 5-6 years.

But maybe those other teams have really important secondary pieces coming up and they'll have to replace their Anton Lundells with Max Domis or whatever. If so, and you hit a few injuries or bad bounces, you get into seasons where you're replacing good players with worse ones and counting on more good luck or truly inspired performances. And that's how windows slide shut.

 

[Guilt Trip]

Nylander had 0 pts in the final 4 games because Paul Maurice saw the damage Willy already did and changed the whole game plan and put all his top defense pair and Barkov against him, Tavares, and Pacioretty/Holmberg. The Leafs first line did nothing against the other matchups they received, except for Mitch jumping on that Forsling turnover in game 6.

There's no depth because all the good depth didn't have cap room.

Nylander's 5v5 time against Barkov the last 4 games of the series.
GM4 6:31
GM5 2:51
GM6 4:28
GM7 2:04
L1 scored all 3 game winners.

 

[azzurri63]

My prediction: not if he signs for $13m. The next team that signs him will be limited in the same way the Leafs have been and will be paying playoff game-breaking money to a player who doesn’t break playoff games.

I don't see him changing in the playoffs. He's had ample time. Also I'm not miffed he's leaving. What i am pissed about is him walking for nothing. If there was any kind of deal during the season and if it was kiboshed by Marner then screw him. Some say that's his right but in my opinion he has been giving everything from this team for 10 years least he could of done was waived his NMC. If he wasn't sure of coming back then why not go and sign somewhere else or play out the season and then pick your destination come free agency.

 

[Bender]

Who's saying re-signing Marner wasn't a priority for the Leafs? It was Marner, or at least his representatives, who were rebuffing contract negotiations by all accounts. From the sound of it in a perfect world the Leafs would have been perfectly happy signing him to a deal larger than Nylander's around the same time of season Willy finalized his contract last year. We have to accept this is a 2-way street.

If Marner walks for nothing it's because he doesn't want to spend the rest of his career as a Leaf.

I mean, there's only one player I've repeatedly heard who gets treated unfairly, and it's been brought up by his agent, his camp and teammates ad nauseum. The Leafs were already reportedly offering him $13M+ in the middle of the season. It's baffling that this is still even a debate that Mitch would just re-sign ho hum and it was the Leafs org that screwed things up. This is a confluence of issues and this isn't just a case of Leafs and fans bad, Marner good.

 

[Bender]

My prediction: not if he signs for $13m. The next team that signs him will be limited in the same way the Leafs have been and will be paying playoff game-breaking money to a player who doesn’t break playoff games.

Yup, either he chases dollars and a quiet market or he chases winning and makes a compromise on his salary. I also don't know why there has to be a debate about players doing well elsewhere. It's like saying your ex won't get married because she was an awful partner. Yes, with you, but maybe not with someone else.

 

[dappleganger]

I don't see him changing in the playoffs. He's had ample time. Also I'm not miffed he's leaving. What i am pissed about is him walking for nothing. If there was any kind of deal during the season and if it was kiboshed by Marner then screw him. Some say that's his right but in my opinion he has been giving everything from this team for 10 years least he could of done was waived his NMC. If he wasn't sure of coming back then why not go and sign somewhere else or play out the season and then pick your destination come free agency.

Mitch didn't waive his NTC because he wanted to win here. Mitch wanted to stay here. Mitch knew that if the Leafs won he would be back as a Leaf and would get all his money. Mitch also knew if the Leafs lost he was gone. He knew it would be untenable from a PR perspective and from the Leafs management for him to return if the Leafs lost. That's the situation we face.

 

[Kaberle15]

I don't see him changing in the playoffs. He's had ample time. Also I'm not miffed he's leaving. What i am pissed about is him walking for nothing. If there was any kind of deal during the season and if it was kiboshed by Marner then screw him. Some say that's his right but in my opinion he has been giving everything from this team for 10 years least he could of done was waived his NMC. If he wasn't sure of coming back then why not go and sign somewhere else or play out the season and then pick your destination come free agency.

I see what you mean.. and I am frustrated as well, but if you see this with Marner's eyes: They gave him a full NTC, his wife was 7 months into a pregnancy.

Why the heck he would say yes and move to Carolina ?

Sure a Marner trade could give the Leafs a bunch of assets and picks, and he and Matthews could be 1&2 all time in points for the Leafs and he is a great player, and him leaving for nothing is awlful and will hurt the Leafs for a very long time. But this is on Dubas and his recreation of Muskoka 5 with all the NMC.

 

[mr grieves]

Mitch didn't waive his NTC because he wanted to win here. Mitch wanted to stay here. Mitch knew that if the Leafs won he would be back as a Leaf and would get all his money. Mitch also knew if the Leafs lost he was gone. He knew it would be untenable from a PR perspective and from the Leafs management for him to return if the Leafs lost. That's the situation we face.

I think that's right.

By walking it to UFA--which was his and his agent's declared intention going back to at least the start of this season and his agent's way of doing business over enough contracts now this was obvious back in Spring 2023--it meant the only way Mitch was staying (on his contractual terms, anyway) was if the team finally put it together and went on a deep run.

If it was another failed campaign, the only way his return would be tenable is after making some MacKinnon-like "ain't won %^&$" statement and backing it up with a team-friendly, winning-conducive contract (like that which Tavares is rumored to be taking).

Personally, back in May 2023, I would've taken stock of how things went over the prior 3-4 years and opted not to take the bet either that the team was going to go deep with a Core 4 or that Marner would be a player to take a discount to stay and make it work. So, I would've moved someone then.

 

[ZBBM]

We are all rehashing here but I just want to say that I would have prioritized signing Marner first and then Nylander if there's room. They got it backwards.

And yeah, they all failed. Again, it makes me mad that all the negativity is trained on Marner and none on Willy, who deserves to be criticized just as much (as do Matthews and Tavaes). And 88's "what's the big deal" attitude is a recipe for failure in playoffs. Like I said, he needs to be part of the DNA change. Maybe he can revamp his game to be more like Marner's best attributes. But that's between his ears.

I hope he does, because he's an exceptional talent and funfunfun to watch.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

We are all rehashing here but I just want to say that I would have prioritized signing Marner first and then Nylander if there's room. They got it backwards.

I mean... how? Nylander's contract expired first. And again for all we know the Leafs made every effort to re-sign Marner and were just rebuked.

And yeah, they all failed. Again, it makes me mad that all the negativity is trained on Marner and none on Willy, who deserves to be criticized just as much (as do Matthews and Tavaes). And 88's "what's the big deal" attitude is a recipe for failure in playoffs. Like I said, he needs to be part of the DNA change. Maybe he can revamp his game to be more like Marner's best attributes. But that's between his ears.

We'll never know for sure but I suspect if Nylander and Marner's situations were flipped where Marner was already re-signed and Nylander was the one refusing to sign midseason and heading toward July 1st without a deal the fan criticism would be somewhat flipped too with a portion of the fanbase accepting that Willy might need to walk to change that team DNA and also rework the cap structure.

 

[mr grieves]

We are all rehashing here but I just want to say that I would have prioritized signing Marner first and then Nylander if there's room. They got it backwards.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't Marner only edible to extend on July 1, 2024? Wouldn't that have been when Nylander became a UFA?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I see what you mean.. and I am frustrated as well, but if you see this with Marner's eyes: They gave him a full NTC, his wife was 7 months into a pregnancy.

Why the heck he would say yes and move to Carolina ?

Yeah I think you can criticize Marner and his camp for a lot of things but this definitely isn't one of them.

 

[dappleganger]

We'll never know for sure but I suspect if Nylander and Marner's situations were flipped where Marner was already re-signed and Nylander was the one refusing to sign midseason and heading toward July 1st without a deal the fan criticism would be somewhat flipped too with a portion of the fanbase accepting that Willy might need to walk to change that team DNA and also rework the cap structure.

I agree CTB. The criticism was on Nylander before he re-signed and his contract was expiring. After he re-signed, all the eyes and nitpicking went to Marner.

 

[Bender]

I mean... how? Nylander's contract expired first. And again for all we know the Leafs made every effort to re-sign Marner and were just rebuked.


We'll never know for sure but I suspect if Nylander and Marner's situations were flipped where Marner was already re-signed and Nylander was the one refusing to sign midseason and heading toward July 1st without a deal the fan criticism would be somewhat flipped too with a portion of the fanbase accepting that Willy might need to walk to change that team DNA and also rework the cap structure.

I think this is the most likely scenario. If Mitch's camp signs midseason and doesn't negotiate through the media or leak whatever grievances out, have his camp complain about mistreatment etc. then the perception of Marner would be a lot different. If Nylander did that, then repeatedly was non-committal about signing then had two goals in a 14 game playoff run he'd be catching a ton of heat. It really isn't that complicated.

Running it back again because we're afraid to lose players after 9yrs of failure is not an option, but I also think we're all of the belief that it's a bad look when you lose assets for nothing, which is probably what will happen with Mitch, but a lot of what's driving this is Marner clearly wants to test free agency and if the core is broken up it's because of that and the fact that he's the most convenient one to shed right now.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Running it back again because we're afraid to lose players after 9yrs of failure is not an option, but I also think we're all of the belief that it's a bad look when you lose assets for nothing, which is probably what will happen with Mitch, but a lot of what's driving this is Marner clearly wants to test free agency and if the core is broken up it's because of that and the fact that he's the most convenient one to shed right now.

I would add that if there were a possible scenario where the Leafs could trade Nylander for a big package and then re-sign Marner I would still do that in order to obtain that DNA/cap structure change the team possibly needs. But that would require Nylander to waive his NMC, which is unlikely because he wants to stay here, and it would require Marner to sign an extension, which is unlikely because he probably doesn't want to stay here.

 

[ZBBM]

I would add that if there were a possible scenario where the Leafs could trade Nylander for a big package and then re-sign Marner I would still do that in order to obtain that DNA/cap structure change the team possibly needs. But that would require Nylander to waive his NMC, which is unlikely because he wants to stay here, and it would require Marner to sign an extension, which is unlikely because he probably doesn't want to stay here.

Unlikely? Yes. Impossible? No. If all options are on the table, this should be one of them. Same applies to Rielly. NMCs are ironclad, until you ask someone to waive it.

 

[ZBBM]

I mean... how? Nylander's contract expired first. And again for all we know the Leafs made every effort to re-sign Marner and were just rebuked.


We'll never know for sure but I suspect if Nylander and Marner's situations were flipped where Marner was already re-signed and Nylander was the one refusing to sign midseason and heading toward July 1st without a deal the fan criticism would be somewhat flipped too with a portion of the fanbase accepting that Willy might need to walk to change that team DNA and also rework the cap structure.

You make it clear that it's a priority to resign Marner, and then you negotiate from there. Hopefully you get both.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

Nylander had 0 pts in the final 4 games because Paul Maurice saw the damage Willy already did and changed the whole game plan and put all his top defense pair and Barkov against him, Tavares, and Pacioretty/Holmberg.

So, there's your everyday bullsh*t around here and then there's this. Come on man. We can't knock Marner for not performing and then create an excuse for Nylander. Well most of us can't.

The issue isn't even about Nylander vs Marner. The issue is both of them(along with the rest of the team) ran and hid as soon as Florida started playing their actual brand of hockey. Which occurred at around the 5 minute mark in the second period of game 3. The team laid an egg. Multiple eggs. Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Tavares and Knies all disappeared.

I'll agree that Marner moving on probably needs to happen. Not because he's the player I want to move on...Or the player that I think should move on. I'd actually be moving Rielly and Matthews if I had my way...But neither of those contracts are going anywhere. And Marner is the easiest to walk away from.

 

[mr grieves]

You make it clear that it's a priority to resign Marner, and then you negotiate from there. Hopefully you get both.

But doesn't that make it fairly likely that you lose both? Nylander would be as aggrieved as many here say Marner is--except rightfully so, in this case, as the team's saying we aren't negotiating with you until that guy's under contract, which is after yours expires but, you know, wait around for us if you want--and Marner would still have an agent who walks his FAs to the end of their contracts to test the market.

The 2023 draft was the time to move Marner or Nylander to rewire the team's DNA. Once it passed, the players were in control. One wanted to stay and re-signed; the other doesn't, hasn't, isn't going to.

 

[Arn]

So, there's your everyday bullsh*t around here and then there's this. Come on man. We can't knock Marner for not performing and then create an excuse for Nylander. Well most of us can't.

The issue isn't even about Nylander vs Marner. The issue is both of them(along with the rest of the team) ran and hid as soon as Florida started playing their actual brand of hockey. Which occurred at around the 5 minute mark in the second period of game 3. The team laid an egg. Multiple eggs. Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Tavares and Knies all disappeared.

I'll agree that Marner moving on probably needs to happen. Not because he's the player I want to move on...Or the player that I think should move on. I'd actually be moving Rielly and Matthews if I had my way...But neither of those contracts are going anywhere. And Marner is the easiest to walk away from.

Can I ask why on Matthews? You may have said so elsewhere so apologies if it’s rehashing stuff.

In my view, of the “core 4”, Matthews has (had? hopefully not and last year turns out to be an outlier) probably the biggest trump card of all - he scores goals. And lots of them. And in lots of different ways. And he’s evolved the ways he has scored.

You can’t really teach that as such. I think you can replace set up men. You don’t even necessarily need a Marner level set up man alongside him for him to score. I’m not sure you can replace goalscorers so easily.

He’s also very good defensively.

Now, I’d very happily enter a discussion about him as a captain and whether he was the right option for that role. I’d probably cede that I’m not convinced he was the right guy for that role. That’s without knowing what goes on behind the scenes of course.