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2025 Offseason Thread: Spring Cleaning

Just wait and see, nothing I have seen or read is anything but speculation.

A guy that can't get it done when it matters is not worth +12M to a "contending" team, no matter how you spin it.
 
I don’t read anything in that quote that says the GM is “kicking around trading Marner”, it’s about as generic a quote from a GM as you can get.
Treliving said. “Mitch controls a lot of this whole thing. If there’s a way to make our team better, we’re going to do it. But we’re certainly not going to make a trade just so we can pound our chest and say, ‘Look, we’re different.'”
That set off a media firestorm. Show me a quote where he said that about Matthews. It was said very early on after the May 2024 playoff loss before the parties could have had concluded significant discussions about a contract that Marner said he would starting thinking about "now" at his year end media scrum.

It is not too often that a team kicks around the notion of trading one of its top players. That draws media attention - particularly in a hockey market like Toronto.
When they do, they are saying "we do not see this player as an essential piece we must retain for our aspiration to win a Cup" and with the media coverage here, the whole hockey world knows about it.
Management let the potential trade firestorm and bogus claims about his playoff performance burn.
There was no quick definitive rescue by management.
Heading into his UFA year, do those things enhance Marner's contract value? No, they hurt them.
Treliving has been around. It was not an accident. It could be perceived as pressure to relinquish his NMC.
If you are the agent or player, that looks rather nasty/dirty. All because a player is desiring that a NMC contract clause he negotiated in good faith be respected and they get a fair contract.
When management does that, the agent wisely recommends Marner play out his contract. Then he doesn't have to go through what Rantenan did with two new cities as his wife, whose family also resides in Toronto, is about to deliver a baby
The General Manager who behaved the way he did to Marner stands to lose Marner for nothing.
That seems like it is probably a just outcome under the circumstances.
If the GM doesn't respect what you did for the team, your family situation and your contract, then by all means - no quarter.
It is after all, "just business".

John Tavares got paid a little more more money than Marner. They're both UFAs this year.
Tavares .61 ppg -15 in the playoffs for the Leafs
Marner .90 ppg +9 in the playoffs for the Leafs
I missed the Leafs management and media hanging a piñata named UFA John Tavares.
Don't take that the wrong way. I think the world of Tavares.
On some level, it is kind of a glaring double standard though, isn't it?

Things happen for a reason. The reason this is happening has more to do with searching for money to improve the team elsewhere than it does with Marner's performance.

Nylander's a one way player. Tavares' best years are behind him. If Matthews chronic injury doesn't allow him to return to 2023-24 form, Marner may be their best skater and they may lose him for nothing.
 
That is just a piece trying to make Marner the good guy and the Leafs the ultimate bad guys.

I said it before, Dubas recreated the Muskoka five with the player coming off their entry level with full NMC, this is not on Marner, it is a shame to lose an amazing player for nothing, but it is what it is.
 
Sure. But once July 1, 2024 rolls around, if your agent isn’t in Treliving’s office to start working out an extension — something team friendly, that shows commitment to the city and returns some of what your underperformance cost the team over your last deal — it’s clear that you aren’t interested to be part of building a winning team in Toronto. You are out to maximize your short term value. Which, fine, but don’t be shocked when fans turn on you or the media reports what you’re doing?

What were they going to talk about? Treliving stated to the media he was considering trading Marner a month before July 1, 2024. And apparently, they got close to a deal with Vegas if Friedman is to be believed. Then we know about the Rantanen Canes deal. It has been questionable all along since May 2024 if the Leafs truly wanted to re-sign Marner. The whole gist of it seemed like they just wanted to avoid losing him for nothing. Re-signing him as a valued member of the team never seemed like a priority.
 
There was a post here about ‘games 5-7’ and I looked it up and both Matthews and marner’s stats are terrible in those games (Marner has 0 goals).

This is no defence of Marner, but if you look at a bunch of players in that context, you’d be surprised how many big time players don’t have that many points in those games. Have a look at Kucherov for example:


5 goals is 24 games. Play with that query to see other players.

I’m not really trying to prove anything. I just don’t think it’s fair to expect players to score in every game in a series. Of course if Marner was able to score just 1 that could have made a difference. Or he carries the team for the first 3 games but it would be nice if other players step up and contributed.
 
What were they going to talk about? Treliving stated to the media he was considering trading Marner a month before July 1, 2024. And apparently, they got close to a deal with Vegas if Friedman is to be believed. Then we know about the Rantanen Canes deal. It has been questionable all along since May 2024 if the Leafs truly wanted to re-sign Marner. The whole gist of it seemed like they just wanted to avoid losing him for nothing. Re-signing him as a valued member of the team never seemed like a priority.

I mean, James Mirtle reported on the Leaf Report Podcasg around the time of the Rantanen proposed trade that the Leafs had offered Marner a big contract and were frustrated that he wasn’t signed yet.
 
I mean, James Mirtle reported on the Leaf Report Podcasg around the time of the Rantanen proposed trade that the Leafs had offered Marner a big contract and were frustrated that he wasn’t signed yet.
Maybe he just doesn’t want to be here anymore.

Personally, as someone who worked in a toxic environment, the best decision I ever made was to leave there. Put aside the money Marner has made over his career, and think of him as a human for a minute. Since day 1 he hasn’t really been embraced by this city, the media or the team. From Babcock and his toxic bs to fans having it out for him and his father since almost day 1.

Has he done himself any favours? Probably not, but from the outside, I don’t blame him at all for wanting to move on from the leafs.
 
I mean, James Mirtle reported on the Leaf Report Podcasg around the time of the Rantanen proposed trade that the Leafs had offered Marner a big contract and were frustrated that he wasn’t signed yet.
This. There were lots of reports of the Leafs approaching Marner and being rebuffed. How that's being spun into somehow the Leafs not making re-signing a priority is beyond me.
 
It's so entertaining watching and reading the pearl clutching on different levels. At this point I could care less if they completely blew up the team or not. Again, I do think it was insane not to recoup something for one of the big three, but I also just can't believe the number of people who seem to want to run it back yet again (as highly unlikely an outcome as that is). Are we afraid of taking a step back, like not winning a round like we haven't in the last 7 of 9 years? Are we afraid of not having enough assets going forward? Because that ship has long, long sailed unless this front office decides to start playing hardball even with NMC holders.
We are not looking good. Marner walking, no high picks for the next 2-3 years, farm system is crap. We'll see what Tre does but I think we are looking at some sad days ahead.
 
This. There were lots of reports of the Leafs approaching Marner and being rebuffed. How that's being spun into somehow the Leafs not making re-signing a priority is beyond me.

It boggles my mind that they gave Marner an incredibly team friendly deal and gave him every opportunity he could want with the team, despite the fact his side negotiated through the media, threatened about offer sheets, threatened to play overseas, refused to negotiate in-season this past year - and then we are supposed to think he was somehow slighted because the team did their due diligence (what any team should do) regarding looking into trades involving a player who was refusing to negotiate/sign? Give me a break.
 
That is just a piece trying to make Marner the good guy and the Leafs the ultimate bad guys.

I said it before, Dubas recreated the Muskoka five with the player coming off their entry level with full NMC, this is not on Marner, it is a shame to lose an amazing player for nothing, but it is what it is.
They did not get "full NMCs." Dubas and Shanny gave NMCs in the final year of 34s 5 year deal and the last 2 years of 16's 6 year deal. 88 never got one, he had a NTC in his final year. This was pretty common practice to sign these deals with the stars. Stamkos, Hedman, Toews, Kane, Perry, Getzlaf, Crosby, Malkin and the list goes on.
 
They did not get "full NMCs." Dubas and Shanny gave NMCs in the final year of 34s 5 year deal and the last 2 years of 16's 6 year deal. 88 never got one, he had a NTC in his final year. This was pretty common practice to sign these deals with the stars. Stamkos, Hedman, Toews, Kane, Perry, Getzlaf, Crosby, Malkin and the list goes on.
They all got some form of trade protection as soon as they were eligible - which was when they crossed the threshold to make them eligible to be UFAs.
 
That is just a piece trying to make Marner the good guy and the Leafs the ultimate bad guys.

I said it before, Dubas recreated the Muskoka five with the player coming off their entry level with full NMC, this is not on Marner, it is a shame to lose an amazing player for nothing, but it is what it is.
The Muskoka five moniker pisses me off to no end. The way they treated Sundin was pure garbage. If you’ll recall they weren’t far out of the playoffs and sundin said that his place is here as captain to help the team make the playoffs. It’s not his fault that JFJ fucked up the team.

It was such a stupid term then and continues to be now.
 
man you really love sniffing Marner's farts. I get that we are about to lose a fantastic player but the contortionist routine to make Marner the most mistreated person in the NHL by the Leafs is a little much. He got ~70 million dollars over his time in Toronto. He got trade protection. He never had to drive his own line away from Tavares or Matthews.
 
The Muskoka five moniker pisses me off to no end. The way they treated Sundin was pure garbage. If you’ll recall they weren’t far out of the playoffs and sundin said that his place is here as captain to help the team make the playoffs. It’s not his fault that JFJ fucked up the team.

It was such a stupid term then and continues to be now.
And the only reason he went to Vancouver is the team said they didn't want him when he decided he wanted to play one final year. Somehow they managed to spin that into Sundin sticking it to the organization
 
I think one of the pitfalls of the Dubas-era and the analytics movement in general is the overemphasis on evaluating the large sample data.

Yes, you need to see the whole picture for certain types of evaluation to smear out luck effects, but there was an over-reliance on that to pooh-pooh away a pattern of issues in high-leverage moments because the overall percentages were positive.

I don't know what the exact solution is, because myopically looking only at the high leverage moments washes out the plays that lead to leverage. Maybe a regression algorithm to weigh things out based on historical factors.

Even just with goal scoring (i.e. not counting shot attempts), you could ascribe heavier 'quality' weightings for certain types of goal situations and reduce the noise that comes from secondary assists to get a clearer picture of production.

e.g. higher value weights to
* rush goals, solo-efforts
* goals that tie, take the lead, response goals within 2 min
* primary assists for tap-ins, behind the net passes, cross-slot passes

Get a good model for the goals and it can be modified and applied to shot attempts too

I dunno, the one thing I keep coming back to in my head is that regular season success seems to lead to postseason success for basically every other team except for the Leafs for some reason. This was a team that set a couple of franchise records for regular season success, and I think in probably any other city you would naturally expect (since we don’t have a crystal ball) that to be a barometer for playoff success. Why it didn’t happen here I have no idea and it frustrates me to no end.
 
I dunno, the one thing I keep coming back to in my head is that regular season success seems to lead to postseason success for basically every other team except for the Leafs for some reason. This was a team that set a couple of franchise records for regular season success, and I think in probably any other city you would naturally expect (since we don’t have a crystal ball) that to be a barometer for playoff success. Why it didn’t happen here I have no idea and it frustrates me to no end.

I think you have to dig into the types of regular season success those other contenders had. For the Leafs, I believe it was a playstyle mismatch. Dubas-Keefe Leafs leaned super hard into controlling the puck and manipulating space, which is like preparing for 2030 hockey. Power Play hockey of moving the puck around to probe for seams. And Matthews-Marner can really cook in that format when no opponents are making playoff-level commitments. Their play and numbers look beautiful and I am pretty confident in saying that management, coaching, and the fanbase got high on their own supply here.

But it's a completely different game in the playoffs. The Leafs had zero preparation for the whistles being put away after the first half of every game 2. Zero preparation for getting bodies into the slot with the puck (see Keefe vs Thornton in 2021 Amazon series). Their offensive style favouring a methodical set up meant every opponent just took their sweet time setting up the defensive structure and waiting for the predictable perimeter pass to get picked off for a rush chance against a relatively cold goalie. 5v5 offense turns to poop against a committed defense; Perimeter-based PP turns to poop against a packed slot.

I think Dubas and Keefe recognized it towards the end, given all the personnel types they kept trying to airdrop in, but the inertia of 'success' was too deeply ingrained. Why change what ain't broke (in the regular season)?
 
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