Armchair GM 2016-2017

[Bates]

Correct but then you hope for performance from the acquisitions and start searching for a JVR. 

Unless preliminary discussions have JVR wanting to stay and willing to do so for a team friendly contract.  Not optimistic of that but if any Leaf would offer it I suspect it would be JVR.

Even then, you're talking about passing up on what JVR could fetch in a trade and the "team friendly" cap space(that they're really not even allowed to be discussing the specifics of).

 

[Frank E]

I think the longer you sit on JVR, the lousier the return.

He's healthy, he's producing, and he's relatively cheap for the next season and a half.

Turn him into defense prospects now.

 

[Frank E]

Correct but then you hope for performance from the acquisitions and start searching for a JVR. 

Unless preliminary discussions have JVR wanting to stay and willing to do so for a team friendly contract.  Not optimistic of that but if any Leaf would offer it I suspect it would be JVR.

Even then, you're talking about passing up on what JVR could fetch in a trade and the "team friendly" cap space(that they're really not even allowed to be discussing the specifics of).

I'll worry about adding a nice 25-30 goal winger in 3 years from now.

Until then, this team needs a stud defenseman or 2 in the system way more than a goal scorer.

 

[Kin]

Correct but then you hope for performance from the acquisitions and start searching for a JVR.

Sure but let's remember that between Leipsic, Kapanen, Bracco, Korshkov, Grundstrom, Johnson, Timoshov, etc the team is so much stronger in terms of non-NHL talent on the wing that anywhere else that it's a serious concern going forward. If none of those guys already in the system can provide contributions that are roughly on par with JVR we might as well go home because our scouting staff/development system is in trouble.

Likewise, as I've mentioned, pretty good wingers are probably the easiest adds to make come UFA time. So the avenues for potentially replacing JVR are pretty numerous whereas the avenues for adding what he could fetch are basically just him and a bunch of guys we really don't want to trade.

 

[Coco-puffs]

I'm not convinced selling JVR now is a slam dunk better choice than waiting til next year, unless the Leafs really are willing to keep bottoming out and maybe retains now to make it a more attractive option.

Considering how team-friendly his contract is and how likely he is to be looking for a raise when it's over, I'm really to struggling to see how trading JVR at any point other than ASAP could possibly be the one where he's at his highest value.

In any normal year I'd say you are 100% right that his value would be highest before this years trade deadline than at any other point.  However, with the Expansion Draft approaching and teams already worried about losing NHL assets as it is, I think his trade value will be the highest AFTER the Expansion draft. 

I guess we will see how many teams approach this deadline with concern over losing assets in the draft vs going for it this year before the lose some assets.  For a team like the Wild, who are probably going to lose a good asset no matter what, maybe trading for JvR now makes sense.  Just don't expect them to trade one of their NHL defencemen.  At this point the Wild will lose a good player, so whats it to them to add another one and go for it. 

 

[bustaheims]

In any normal year I'd say you are 100% right that his value would be highest before this years trade deadline than at any other point.  However, with the Expansion Draft approaching and teams already worried about losing NHL assets as it is, I think his trade value will be the highest AFTER the Expansion draft. 

There hasn't been a whole lot of talk about teams concerned about being able to protect all the forwards they want to. It's been almost entirely about defencemen and goalies. Since teams can basically protect their entire top two lines, JvR may be exactly the type of asset a team would identify as the prime target to acquire as a part of a deal for a good young blueliner they risk losing for nothing in the expansion draft. He's an upgrade for most team's top 6, and isn't likely to put a team in a situation where they now have to expose someone they really wanted to hold on to.

 

[Kin]

In any normal year I'd say you are 100% right that his value would be highest before this years trade deadline than at any other point.  However, with the Expansion Draft approaching and teams already worried about losing NHL assets as it is, I think his trade value will be the highest AFTER the Expansion draft. 

I guess we will see how many teams approach this deadline with concern over losing assets in the draft vs going for it this year before the lose some assets.  For a team like the Wild, who are probably going to lose a good asset no matter what, maybe trading for JvR now makes sense.  Just don't expect them to trade one of their NHL defencemen.  At this point the Wild will lose a good player, so whats it to them to add another one and go for it.

That strikes me as a relatively minor consideration. I'd wager most teams are almost certainly going to go with the 7/3/1 protection breakdown and if adding JVR isn't easily worth the difference between keeping your 7th and 8th best draft eligible forward you're not likely to pay much for him regardless.

 

[herman]

I think the longer you sit on JVR, the lousier the return.

He's healthy, he's producing, and he's relatively cheap for the next season and a half.

Turn him into defense prospects now.

This.

 

[Bates]

If a JVR is so easy to find and add why would another NHL team give us a hard to find D stud for him??  Hard to follow that logic.

Correct but then you hope for performance from the acquisitions and start searching for a JVR.

Sure but let's remember that between Leipsic, Kapanen, Bracco, Korshkov, Grundstrom, Johnson, Timoshov, etc the team is so much stronger in terms of non-NHL talent on the wing that anywhere else that it's a serious concern going forward. If none of those guys already in the system can provide contributions that are roughly on par with JVR we might as well go home because our scouting staff/development system is in trouble.

Likewise, as I've mentioned, pretty good wingers are probably the easiest adds to make come UFA time. So the avenues for potentially replacing JVR are pretty numerous whereas the avenues for adding what he could fetch are basically just him and a bunch of guys we really don't want to trade.

 

[Kin]

Also, I think trading guys in the off-season always carries a bit of baggage with it in the sense that teams will always be faced with the option of "Do I want to trade one of my best defensive prospects and a 1st round pick for Player X or do I want to wait a week and sign Player Y as a UFA and get 75% of Player X but get to keep those high value assets".

You trade a player at the deadline and your "competition" is all of the players other teams are willing to trade. You trade them in the off-season and the competition is everyone other teams are willing to trade plus the marketplace.

 

[Bates]

For the record I'm not against trading JVR, but I'm only in favor if the return is overwhelming.  I'm not in favor of just making the trade for a maybe prospect and picks.

 

[Kin]

If a JVR is so easy to find and add why would another NHL team give us a hard to find D stud for him??  Hard to follow that logic.

Not especially. First off, I don't think anyone but the super duper optimistic thinks that JVR will get dealt for someone who's already a top flight NHL defenseman. So you're talking about prospects/developing defensemen. So the "logic" as it were is just about teams who are making an immediate push willing to trade some future for the present which is something we see all the time.

Likewise, if you go back to Herman's link to the column about possible returns you'll see that a lot of the emphasis is on teams with an abundance of D prospects but with a need upfront making that swap. So Philadelphia who already has Provorov and Gostisbehere in the lineup could part with Sanheim and still have an abundance of D talent in the lineup and in the system.

Additionally there's nothing "easy" about the talent the Leafs have been building up at wing. The guys I listed are the result of the team making multiple trades, using multiple 2nd round picks...that's not something a team can do overnight. The Leafs are in that position of advantage.

Finally, adding a JVR equivalent in free agency is easy in a sense in that good wingers are usually available but for a team with immediate cup hopes the problem isn't the difficulty, it's the cap. Adding guys like Lucic, Eriksson, Okposo or Backes this off-season was relatively painless for the teams that did it but it wasn't cheap. The Leafs are in a position where, in a few years out, they can spend that money to bolster their line-up. JVR at 4.25 million for this year and next represents a particular opportunity that isn't of much use to them but to the right team could be super valuable.

 

[Coco-puffs]

In any normal year I'd say you are 100% right that his value would be highest before this years trade deadline than at any other point.  However, with the Expansion Draft approaching and teams already worried about losing NHL assets as it is, I think his trade value will be the highest AFTER the Expansion draft. 

There hasn't been a whole lot of talk about teams concerned about being able to protect all the forwards they want to. It's been almost entirely about defencemen and goalies. Since teams can basically protect their entire top two lines, JvR may be exactly the type of asset a team would identify as the prime target to acquire as a part of a deal for a good young blueliner they risk losing for nothing in the expansion draft. He's an upgrade for most team's top 6, and isn't likely to put a team in a situation where they now have to expose someone they really wanted to hold on to.

I brought up the Wild specifically because they have 6 quality NHL defensemen.  It appears they are losing one of them without a doubt (I doubt they trade 3 of them just to avoid losing any of them in expansion), so they probably aren't going to bother trading one of them for JvR.  We are going to get picks and prospects if that were to happen.

As for other NHL teams.  Teams with no/little playoff aspirations will be the most likely to trade their 4th best defenceman to get something of value in return instead of losing that player in expansion.  They aren't trading that player for JvR though.  Teams with serious playoff aspirations most likely won't worry about losing their 4th best defenceman in expansion if it means getting weaker at one of their most important positions for the stretch run/playoffs.  Which teams do you think will try and turn their 4th best defenseman into JvR?

Furthermore, Vegas isn't going to select 15 or 20 defensemen either.  They HAVE TO select 14 forwards and 3 goalies, so the maximum is 13 defensemen (minimum is 9).  I wouldn't be surprised if they do select 12-13 defensemen though- they do carry more value in trades.

 

[Bates]

But if JVR is willing to accept a contract with a moderate raise we could also try to trade some of those prospects into D prospects as we have a position filled for a few years with a proven scorer.

If a JVR is so easy to find and add why would another NHL team give us a hard to find D stud for him??  Hard to follow that logic.

Not especially. First off, I don't think anyone but the super duper optimistic thinks that JVR will get dealt for someone who's already a top flight NHL defenseman. So you're talking about prospects/developing defensemen. So the "logic" as it were is just about teams who are making an immediate push willing to trade some future for the present which is something we see all the time.

Likewise, if you go back to Herman's link to the column about possible returns you'll see that a lot of the emphasis is on teams with an abundance of D prospects but with a need upfront making that swap. So Philadelphia who already has Provorov and Gostisbehere in the lineup could part with Sanheim and still have an abundance of D talent in the lineup and in the system.

Additionally there's nothing "easy" about the talent the Leafs have been building up at wing. The guys I listed are the result of the team making multiple trades, using multiple 2nd round picks...that's not something a team can do overnight. The Leafs are in that position of advantage.

Finally, adding a JVR equivalent in free agency is easy in a sense in that good wingers are usually available but for a team with immediate cup hopes the problem isn't the difficulty, it's the cap. Adding guys like Lucic, Eriksson, Okposo or Backes this off-season was relatively painless for the teams that did it but it wasn't cheap. The Leafs are in a position where, in a few years out, they can spend that money to bolster their line-up. JVR at 4.25 million for this year and next represents a particular opportunity that isn't of much use to them but to the right team could be super valuable.

 

[Kin]

I brought up the Wild specifically because they have 6 quality NHL defensemen.  It appears they are losing one of them without a doubt (I doubt they trade 3 of them just to avoid losing any of them in expansion), so they probably aren't going to bother trading one of them for JvR.

I don't understand this thinking at all. Right now the Wild appear to have a pretty set top 4 of Suter, Spurgeon, Dumba and Brodin(all over 20 minutes a game) and then have Scandella and Folin as a pretty clear bottom pairing getting 16 a night.

So, for the sake of argument, assuming they internally value their defensemen by ice time at:

1. Suter
2. Spurgeon
3. Brodin
4. Dumba
5. Folin
6. Scandella

You're saying there's no reason for them to actually reap the value of someone like Dumba in a trade and lose Folin or Scandella in the draft vs. letting Vegas take who they want? In that scenario they're losing their most valuable expansion draft eligible defenseman for nothing vs. losing their second most, someone who's clearly on their bottom pairing.

 

[Kin]

But if JVR is willing to accept a contract with a moderate raise we could also try to trade some of those prospects into D prospects as we have a position filled for a few years with a proven scorer.

But there are some pretty obvious problems there. The first being that it's entirely predicated on a hypothetical(and, I suppose, what we might define as a "moderate" raise). We don't know what JVR might want to sign an extension for.

Moreover, the Leafs need high value D prospects in the system. One of the things we've seen is that it's tough to trade forwards for defensemen and that applies to prospects as well. So the idea behind trading JVR, someone established, for prospects is you get the higher upside. You can trade a B forward for an A defensive prospect. If you're dealing prospects you're probably working with the same imbalance so you're trading an A forward prospect for a B defensive prospect.

Of course, like I said, all of that is academic because it's predicated on a fairly unlikely situation. I mean, I could just as easily say we'd be absolutely crazy not to trade JVR because he might be willing to re-sign with the Leafs in a couple of years.

 

[Tigger]

I'm not convinced selling JVR now is a slam dunk better choice than waiting til next year, unless the Leafs really are willing to keep bottoming out and maybe retains now to make it a more attractive option.

Considering how team-friendly his contract is and how likely he is to be looking for a raise when it's over, I'm really to struggling to see how trading JVR at any point other than ASAP could possibly be the one where he's at his highest value.

So long as we generally agree that the Leafs have long odds to make the playoffs this year or the next then the term of JVR's deal plus sliding a spot or two in the draft(potentially in both years) seem to be a pretty clear win-win.

Likewise, there's the real possibility that next year's team is closer to the playoffs than this one's probably stands to be and so trading JVR becomes a question of whether the team is "giving up" or not.

So the equation on trading JVR seems pretty straight forward. It's trading him when his remaining term makes him most valuable + his absence could create the greatest draft benefit vs. turning him into a rental and potentially creating a PR problem by dealing him.

I thought I spoke to the 'unless they really maximize the situation' in the second half of that sentence, but, oh well.

 

[Coco-puffs]

I brought up the Wild specifically because they have 6 quality NHL defensemen.  It appears they are losing one of them without a doubt (I doubt they trade 3 of them just to avoid losing any of them in expansion), so they probably aren't going to bother trading one of them for JvR.

I don't understand this thinking at all. Right now the Wild appear to have a pretty set top 4 of Suter, Spurgeon, Dumba and Brodin(all over 20 minutes a game) and then have Scandella and Folin as a pretty clear bottom pairing getting 16 a night.

So, for the sake of argument, assuming they internally value their defensemen by ice time at:

1. Suter
2. Spurgeon
3. Brodin
4. Dumba
5. Folin
6. Scandella

You're saying there's no reason for them to actually reap the value of someone like Dumba in a trade and lose Folin or Scandella in the draft vs. letting Vegas take who they want? In that scenario they're losing their most valuable expansion draft eligible defenseman for nothing vs. losing their second most, someone who's clearly on their bottom pairing.

Well, first of all I think they would want to keep and protect Dumba more than anyone not named Suter or Spurgeon.  Right-handed offensive defenseman who's only 22.  So that leaves:  Brodin, Folin, and Scandella. 

They have an aging team with a windows thats closing, and a goalie who's been lights out for the last couple of years.  Now is not the time to trade one of those three for JvR.  Despite their difference in minutes played, I don't see a huge difference in talent between them either.  If you are going to lose one or the other anyways, why trade one of them and hurt your chances THIS year.  They are better off trading prospects/picks for JvR and letting the chips fall as they may come expansion draft time. 

Furthermore, they can also make a trade after the season ends, before the expansion draft as long as it doesn't circumvent the rules.  (I believe those rules are trades where they send a player to be protected on another teams roster, and then trade back for them after its done etc)

 

[Kin]

They have an aging team with a windows thats closing, and a goalie who's been lights out for the last couple of years.  Now is not the time to trade one of those three for JvR.  Despite their difference in minutes played, I don't see a huge difference in talent between them either.  If you are going to lose one or the other anyways, why trade one of them and hurt your chances THIS year.  They are better off trading prospects/picks for JvR and letting the chips fall as they may come expansion draft time. 

Well, I guess the obvious answer there is that Minnesota sadly doesn't get to make trades solely on the basis of what's best for them. If they value JVR to the point of actually wanting him, they'd have to offer what the Leafs were willing to take.

So the math for Minnesota would be whether or not 5 of their 6 defensemen + JVR this year and 4 of their top 6 and JVR next year really would be worse than 6 of 6 and 5 of 6 next year. If they do think that would be worse for them short term then, sure, there's not really a fit there, especially as Minnesota doesn't really have any high value D prospects.

But Minnesota was your example. I'm just saying that if you're losing your #4, #5 or #6 defenseman anyway , it's in your best interest that the one you lose for nothing not be the most valuable of the three. That seems pretty straight forward to me.

 

[Andy007]

I think the longer you sit on JVR, the lousier the return.

He's healthy, he's producing, and he's relatively cheap for the next season and a half.

Turn him into defense prospects now.

This.

These.