Armchair GM 2016-2017

[Kin]

Bozak is one of those players that teams tend to pay a lot for at a deadline.  Very much like an Antoine Vermette, who went for a 1st round pick.  Bozak is not as good at faceoffs as Vermette is, but is much more offensively inclined.  I would say a late 1st is definitely fair value for him, or at the very least, a 2nd + something...

I wonder about the Vermette comparison. I think that there are two problems there. One, I think NHL GMs aren't above attaching real value to the sorts of round number plateaus that Vermette has done better with in his career. He has hit 50 and even 60 points and scored 20 goals four times. It's all well and good for us to say Bozak has had years where, pro-rated, his numbers project to 50 points over an 82 game span or that 49 points is essentially the same but I really think some people are retrograde to attach some value to those arbitrary heights.

The other one is I think Vermette is more seen as a guy who you can put on a 3rd line and have him provide some offense there even without the greatest linemates. The year before Vermette got traded for that 1st he scored 24 goals playing primarily with Mikael Boedker and Rob Clinkhammer(Although that was mainly because of his PP role). I don't know if Bozak is seen as a depth guy in that same way.

 

[Tigger]

For argument, how about a poor man's Vermette for 2.1 per for the rest of this year and next.

 

[Kin]

For argument, how about a poor man's Vermette for 2.1 per for the rest of this year and next.

 

I'm sure eating money on Bozak makes him a little more appealing but I don't see it answering the more pressing question. Do teams legitimately see him as a top 6 guy? Do they think he contributes enough away from the scoresheet for the bottom 6? Or that he drives enough offense to make for a more modern style third line even with not great linemates?

Because I think in order for a team to give up something really valuable for a player they have to really want them, regardless of the price.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Vermette was also a regular contributor on the Coyotes penalty kill. The fact that he had that on his resume and had a reputation of being a defensive player probably played a big role in Chicago coughing up a 1st for him.

 

[McGarnagle]

Although it might not be a popular opinion, there's always the option of trading Kadri and extending Bozak at likely a very reasonable cap hit. Their stats aren't all that different, but they could get a really top end D prospect for Kadri at 26, vs relatively little for Bozak.

If the plan is to put Nylander at center at some point, doesn't Bozak make more sense than Kadri in the #3 spot, with a solid D acquisition to boot?

 

[Highlander]

Was working on another Leafs brass 'speed up the process' pov and wondered if some of the beneficial by product might be added value to minus one year ufa contracts at the following deadline, Komarov, JVR, Bozak

FORWARDS

L. Komarov ($ 2,950,000) --- A. Matthews ($ 925,000) --- W. Nylander ($ 894,166)
J. Van Riemsdyk ($ 4,250,000) --- N. Kadri ($ 4,500,000) --- C. Brown ($ 1,200,000)
N. Soshnikov ($ 736,666) --- T. Bozak ($ 4,200,000) --- M. Marner ($ 894,166)
K. Kapanen ($ 863,333) --- F. Gauthier ($ 863,333) --- Z. Hyman ($ 900,000)
...

That's a LTIR team, but, between Horton and Lupul it could be interesting. I'm not convinced selling JVR now is a slam dunk better choice than waiting til next year, unless the Leafs really are willing to keep bottoming out and maybe retains now to make it a more attractive option.

Maybe someone can weigh in on this, but Matthews is definitely hitting some of his bonuses and will have a higher cap hit.

One time I want to see a guy blow his bonus's into Space.  Worth every dime and we will be losing some big contracts at the end of this year. I believe Laitch and Greening are gone aren't they?

 

[Tigger]

Sure, I can see teams, managers, needing to feel like they really want the player first and feeling like he isn't quite any of those things but then I can also see it coming from a function of need, dollars and sense. Might get into that low first territory for Bozak.

 

[Kin]

If the plan is to put Nylander at center at some point, doesn't Bozak make more sense than Kadri in the #3 spot, with a solid D acquisition to boot?

Only if you're as comfortable giving Bozak some of the defensive assignments Kadri has handled this year. Personally, I don't think Bozak has that kind of range to his game.

 

[Bullfrog]

Maybe someone can weigh in on this, but Matthews is definitely hitting some of his bonuses and will have a higher cap hit.

One time I want to see a guy blow his bonus's into Space.  Worth every dime and we will be losing some big contracts at the end of this year. I believe Laitch and Greening are gone aren't they?

Robidas, Polak, Hunwick, Smith, Laich, Michalek, and Greening are all off the books after this year.

 

[Highlander]

So how many 2nds to we get for a Roman this year? 8)

 

[McGarnagle]

If the plan is to put Nylander at center at some point, doesn't Bozak make more sense than Kadri in the #3 spot, with a solid D acquisition to boot?

Only if you're as comfortable giving Bozak some of the defensive assignments Kadri has handled this year. Personally, I don't think Bozak has that kind of range to his game.

Well, I had assumed that Tavares would help with some of the heavy lifting.

 

[Britishbulldog]

Maybe someone can weigh in on this, but Matthews is definitely hitting some of his bonuses and will have a higher cap hit.

One time I want to see a guy blow his bonus's into Space.  Worth every dime and we will be losing some big contracts at the end of this year. I believe Laitch and Greening are gone aren't they?

Robidas, Polak, Hunwick, Smith, Laich, Michalek, and Greening are all off the books after this year.

That tranlates to $14.75 MIL.

Next year it is JVR, Bozak and Komarov that need to be addressed at a combined $11.4 MIL.

Next year having non-roster players Lupul, Gleason and Cowen coming of the books will create another $7.333 of cap space leaving only Kessel's $1.2 MIL until 2021/22. 

 

[Highlander]

32 million is not chump change

 

[herman]

JvR 'news'
https://twitter.com/DarrenDreger/status/816834629852348420
www.twitter.com/DarrenDreger/status/816834629852348420

http://theleafsnation.com/2017/1/5/the-leafs-might-want-to-wait-out-a-van-riemsdyk-trade

Toronto's most opportune time, should they choose to go that route, will likely be at this year's draft. Teams will likely be scrambling after Las Vegas' expansion selections, and with Alexander Radulov likely to be extended by the Montreal Canadians far before then, van Riemsdyk will likely be the best winger with the best contract value on the market for acquisition. This way, as well, Toronto doesn't have to worry about exposing Connor Carrick to said Vegas Draft, which any trade for a big-minutes defenceman will do, unless they choose to go for the just-as-risky "eight skater" protection list.

Eehhh...

 

[bustaheims]

There isn't much in terms of quality top 6 forwards in the UFA market this summer, so, there may be some advantage there - though, that being said, that also means the market of teams focused on top 6 upgrades will be smaller, as more teams will have theirs locked up.

As for the expansion draft - with teams being able to protect 7 forwards, there's not likely to be a whole lot of scrambling there. Honestly, I think the impact of the expansion draft is being over-stated. There'll be a few defencemen and maybe a couple other goalies that get moved because of it, and some teams may be a little more hesitant to add certain players with term, but it's not going to be a huge craze or anything.

 

[Kin]

32 million is not chump change

It's also not mad money. That's Matthews + Marner + Nylander + Gardiner extension money. Realistically the Leafs will have some of it to use on a key UFA or two but good cap management but that's about it.

 

[bustaheims]

32 million is not chump change

It's also not mad money. That's Matthews + Marner + Nylander + Gardiner extension money. Realistically the Leafs will have some of it to use on a key UFA or two but good cap management but that's about it.

Yeah. It sounds like a lot of money, but it gets used up awfully quickly. If you figure an average of $5.5M per on the 4 extensions you reference, that's already $22M gone.

 

[Britishbulldog]

It really irks me that the Leafs lost those 2 draft picks.  I would really like to see the Leafs getting the 3rd round picks back for Lou and Babcock.  After they were taken by the NHL, the powers that be realized how ridiculous it was they rescinded the rule but did not return the 2 picks.

I wish the Leafs could offer a 'Frattin' deal to NJ and Det with Greening, Laich and Michalek that they get traded to the teams like Frattin did to Ottawa and then have them all loaned to the Marlies so that the Leafs pay their salaries and they don't have to be uprooted.

 

[Britishbulldog]

If I am 'Armchair GM'ing 2016-2017 at this point in the season I would like to see a couple of moves but I am still torn on moving JVR at his age as he probably with have an impact for another 6 years still.

      1st MOVE:
Marincin, M ($625,000 retained)
Polak, R ($1,125,000 retained)
Leipsic, B
Corrado, F

for
Manson, J
Stoner, C

Since Manson will most likely not be able to be protected by Anaheim they can translate him into 2 prospects, a 6th dman and a rough and tumble UFA Polak who can try to fill Manson's role for the playoff push.

Marincin also gives Anaheim a dman to expose, Corrado is a young-ish RH dman to develop and Leipsic gives them a decent LH LW prospect that can be sent to the minors without having to pass through waivers to save on cap space.

The retained salaries help the Leafs to sweeten the deal for Anaheim who is currently over $4 MIL over the cap.

Manson gives the Leafs a decent #4 dman and Stoner fits the criteria for expansion to replace Marincin if he can play 5 games for the Leafs and is the logical salary dump for Anaheim to help the Leafs sweeten the deal by helping Anaheim get over $3 MIL off the cap.

      2nd MOVE:
Bracco, J
Hyman, Z
Soshnikov, N
Dermott, T

for

Kane, E

This is a bit of a risk as E Kane seems to have character issues and if he doesn't settle down then the Leafs are out a 4 good players. Atlanta, Winnipeg and Buffalo haven't been able to do it but maybe Shanahan, Lou and Babcock might be able to get him to mature. If not then he should not be re-signed which would be a shame.

OTOH, if he settles down and plays at his potential on Matthews LW for the next 10 years it could be a great trade.

Bracco is a solid RW prospect where the Leafs have decent depth. Hyman and Soshnikov are good skating grinders with a bit of an offensive touch. Dermott is one the Leafs better dman prospects. This trade is basically the classic 4 dimes for a quarter.

All 4 Leaf players in the deal are Expansion Draft Exempt.

POTENTIAL LINEUP:
Kane / Matthews / Brown
JVR / Bozak / Marner
Komarov / Kadri / Kapanen
Martin / Gauthier / Nylander
Leivo / Smith

Rielly / Zaitsev
Gardiner / Manson
Stoner (Hunwick) / Carrick

Andersen / Bibeau

Roster Size	Salary Cap	Cap Hit	Cap Overage Penalty	Bonuses	Cap Space
23	$73,000,000	$65,026,666	$512,000	$5,702,500	$7,973,334

 

That would only leave Brown and Zaitsev as key pieces to re-sign at $2,500,000 per year for 3 years and $5,000,000 per year for 6 years respectively leaving next years payroll at $67,688,000 and bonuses at $4,782,500 which they where all met by every player on an ELC would put the potential payroll at $72,470,500 including Gleason's $1.3 MIL buyout and Cowen's $0.75 MIL buyout not including Lupul on LITR which I believe can't be used to absorb ELC bonuses.  If the cap does not increase from $73,000,000 then the Leafs might have another penalty slapped on them.

The only other thing I was wondering was adding JVR and Ritchie to the Anaheim trade with 50% of JVR's salary retained instead of Marincin salary to help the numbers work for Anaheim. 

 

[Kin]

I'm pretty sure a team can only retain salary on two players and the Leafs are already doing so on Kessel.

Likewise, something to keep in mind is that if the Leafs plan on protecting 4 defensemen(which in that scenario would be Gardiner, Reilly, Zaitsev and Manson) they'll need to expose either Bozak or Komarov in the expansion draft(assuming JVR, Kadri and Kane are guys you'd then protect).

Personally, I don't think the potential benefits of Kane living up to his "potential" come anywhere close to the the downsides of having him around a young/developing club. Especially not if the trade for him involves some of the team's better prospects and depth players.