Auston Matthews

[bustaheims]

If he doesn't extend come July 1st you have to trade him.  Can't be left holding the bag like the Islanders were waiting for Tavares to decide.  Get your boatload of picks and prospects and re-tool/rebuild in this scenario.

Disagree. They have 12 months to negotiate. Take all the time they can. If it does become clear he's not staying, you can move him at the deadline or trade his rights. No sense cutting bait just because he doesn't sign quickly.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

He'll re-sign or walk. Next to zero chance the Leafs deal him.

 

[Bill_Berg]

He'll re-sign or walk. Next to zero chance the Leafs deal him.

Yeah, I gotta say their track record supports this. Unless the Leafs do fire Dubas, then who knows?

 

[Kin]

If he doesn't extend come July 1st you have to trade him.  Can't be left holding the bag like the Islanders were waiting for Tavares to decide.  Get your boatload of picks and prospects and re-tool/rebuild in this scenario.

Realistically there's not going to be a "boatload" of picks and prospects if Matthews isn't interested in signing an extension. You'll get something for him, maybe a good prospect and a first or something, but certainly not the sort of thing that you "have" to have. You're taking a major step backwards anyway.

If Matthews comes to you and says "I definitely won't be re-signing in Toronto" then you think about trading him. Until then even the chance of signing him still greatly outweighs any realistic return.

 

[ZBBM]

You don't turn your back on a generational player unless and until he walks out the door.  Cause another one of his talents isn't coming back the other way, in what's of my lifetime anyway.

 

[L K]

He'll re-sign or walk. Next to zero chance the Leafs deal him.

Yeah, I gotta say their track record supports this. Unless the Leafs do fire Dubas, then who knows?

There is just no logical approach to trading a player of Auston Matthews caliber unless he says he's walking AND the team is completely out of playoff contention come the deadline. 

 

[Bill_Berg]

He'll re-sign or walk. Next to zero chance the Leafs deal him.

Yeah, I gotta say their track record supports this. Unless the Leafs do fire Dubas, then who knows?

There is just no logical approach to trading a player of Auston Matthews caliber unless he says he's walking AND the team is completely out of playoff contention come the deadline. 

And Dubas is not the GM. He's let lots of guys walk to get that last playoff year out of them (among other reasons I'm sure). I mean I guess if they are out of the playoffs then maybe Dubas trades him, but shy of that, Dubas will never in a million years trade Matthews.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

He'll re-sign or walk. Next to zero chance the Leafs deal him.

Yeah, I gotta say their track record supports this. Unless the Leafs do fire Dubas, then who knows?

There is just no logical approach to trading a player of Auston Matthews caliber unless he says he's walking AND the team is completely out of playoff contention come the deadline. 

And Dubas is not the GM. He's let lots of guys walk to get that last playoff year out of them (among other reasons I'm sure). I mean I guess if they are out of the playoffs then maybe Dubas trades him, but shy of that, Dubas will never in a million years trade Matthews.

Teams that are in strong playoff positions(as the Leafs have been) do not trade valuable players on expiring contracts come trade deadline day. That's not a Dubas thing.

 

[Bill_Berg]

He'll re-sign or walk. Next to zero chance the Leafs deal him.

Yeah, I gotta say their track record supports this. Unless the Leafs do fire Dubas, then who knows?

There is just no logical approach to trading a player of Auston Matthews caliber unless he says he's walking AND the team is completely out of playoff contention come the deadline. 

And Dubas is not the GM. He's let lots of guys walk to get that last playoff year out of them (among other reasons I'm sure). I mean I guess if they are out of the playoffs then maybe Dubas trades him, but shy of that, Dubas will never in a million years trade Matthews.

Teams that are in strong playoff positions(as the Leafs have been) do not trade valuable players on expiring contracts come trade deadline day. That's not a Dubas thing.

I'm saying that even if they weren't in a strong playoff position, Dubas wouldn't trade Matthews. That's the Dubas thing. I'm not complaining about it. Just saying that anyone that wants or expects the Leafs to trade Matthews if he hasn't signed long-term shouldn't get their hopes up. At least not as long as Dubas is GM.

 

[Zee]

He'll re-sign or walk. Next to zero chance the Leafs deal him.

Yeah, I gotta say their track record supports this. Unless the Leafs do fire Dubas, then who knows?

There is just no logical approach to trading a player of Auston Matthews caliber unless he says he's walking AND the team is completely out of playoff contention come the deadline. 

And Dubas is not the GM. He's let lots of guys walk to get that last playoff year out of them (among other reasons I'm sure). I mean I guess if they are out of the playoffs then maybe Dubas trades him, but shy of that, Dubas will never in a million years trade Matthews.

Teams that are in strong playoff positions(as the Leafs have been) do not trade valuable players on expiring contracts come trade deadline day. That's not a Dubas thing.

I'm saying that even if they weren't in a strong playoff position, Dubas wouldn't trade Matthews. That's the Dubas thing. I'm not complaining about it. Just saying that anyone that wants or expects the Leafs to trade Matthews if he hasn't signed long-term shouldn't get their hopes up. At least not as long as Dubas is GM.

It would be the worst possible outcome if he walks for nothing.  We're talking about a calder winner, 2 time Rocket Richard winner and Hart and Lindsay winner just walking out the door.  I don't agree that they couldn't get a huge package in a trade for him this July.  We've never seen a player of Matthews abilities traded in their prime, he would return multiple first round picks not just one.

 

[Kin]

It would be the worst possible outcome if he walks for nothing.  We're talking about a calder winner, 2 time Rocket Richard winner and Hart and Lindsay winner just walking out the door.  I don't agree that they couldn't get a huge package in a trade for him this July.  We've never seen a player of Matthews abilities traded in their prime, he would return multiple first round picks not just one.

We literally saw Wayne Gretzky traded in his prime.

Also it seems reasonably relevant to point out that you suggested that the Leafs trade Matthews not if he says he won't sign with them at all but that they should trade him just if he doesn't sign an extension literally the first day he's eligible to. That's akin to selling your house for five bucks because you're worried you may lose it for nothing.

 

[Zee]

It would be the worst possible outcome if he walks for nothing.  We're talking about a calder winner, 2 time Rocket Richard winner and Hart and Lindsay winner just walking out the door.  I don't agree that they couldn't get a huge package in a trade for him this July.  We've never seen a player of Matthews abilities traded in their prime, he would return multiple first round picks not just one.

We literally saw Wayne Gretzky traded in his prime.

Also it seems reasonably relevant to point out that you suggested that the Leafs trade Matthews not if he says he won't sign with them at all but that they should trade him just if he doesn't sign an extension literally the first day he's eligible to. That's akin to selling your house for five bucks because you're worried you may lose it for nothing.

Different circumstance with Gretzky as the owner needed money, Matthews is a bit younger than Gretzky when he was dealt.

The situation I'm referring to here is the Leafs get bounced again the first round.  Dubas and possibly Shanahan are both ousted and a new regime comes in talking about re-evaluating everything.  At that point Matthews might make it clear he's not willing to re-sign and will go to free agency, you have to explore trading him at that point.  Teams in the west like LA, Anaheim and even Arizona would have the cap space and young assets to part with for him, and they would all be willing to take a big swing to get their teams relevant again.  You would get Matthews for next season and also the opportunity to sign him for 8 more years. That's worth a lot.

 

[Kin]

The situation I'm referring to here is the Leafs get bounced again the first round.  Dubas and possibly Shanahan are both ousted and a new regime comes in talking about re-evaluating everything.  At that point Matthews might make it clear he's not willing to re-sign and will go to free agency, you have to explore trading him at that point.

I mean, absolutely none of that was in your comment or any of the ones prior to it. Just, and I quote, "If he doesn't extend come July 1st you have to trade him."

But, sure, like I said if he makes it 100% clear he's not re-signing you explore trading him. But even then the reality is that all you're likely to do the next few years is trying to package together what you can to try and replace him so as long as they've got a shot at re-signing him they should stay in that picture.

Teams in the west like LA, Anaheim and even Arizona would have the cap space and young assets to part with for him, and they would all be willing to take a big swing to get their teams relevant again.  You would get Matthews for next season and also the opportunity to sign him for 8 more years. That's worth a lot.

As I always used to say back in the day, any time your trade idea revolves around another team doing something stupid you're probably proposing a trade we're not likely to see. I think you'd agree that if the situation was reversed, you'd think the Leafs trading a major package of picks and prospects, that is to say a major part of the team's future, for a guy you may or may not be able to sign to an extension was a pretty bad decision on their part. Fact is we've heard a lot of "Team X in a non-traditional market may be willing to wildly overpay for a player to be 'relevant" before but those teams are run by competent people for the most part and they know that the only real way for them to be relevant is to build a winning team. Trading for Matthews only to see him leave and lose a major chunk of their prospect base/draft capital is a bad decision any way you slice it.

 

[Zee]

As I always used to say back in the day, any time your trade idea revolves around another team doing something stupid you're probably proposing a trade we're not likely to see. I think you'd agree that if the situation was reversed, you'd think the Leafs trading a major package of picks and prospects, that is to say a major part of the team's future, for a guy you may or may not be able to sign to an extension was a pretty bad decision on their part. Fact is we've heard a lot of "Team X in a non-traditional market may be willing to wildly overpay for a player to be 'relevant" before but those teams are run by competent people for the most part and they know that the only real way for them to be relevant is to build a winning team. Trading for Matthews only to see him leave and lose a major chunk of their prospect base/draft capital is a bad decision any way you slice it.

The deal could be structured around Matthews agreeing to an extension with the acquiring team beforehand.  Once they know they have him for 9 years, the deal is done.

 

[Kin]

As I always used to say back in the day, any time your trade idea revolves around another team doing something stupid you're probably proposing a trade we're not likely to see. I think you'd agree that if the situation was reversed, you'd think the Leafs trading a major package of picks and prospects, that is to say a major part of the team's future, for a guy you may or may not be able to sign to an extension was a pretty bad decision on their part. Fact is we've heard a lot of "Team X in a non-traditional market may be willing to wildly overpay for a player to be 'relevant" before but those teams are run by competent people for the most part and they know that the only real way for them to be relevant is to build a winning team. Trading for Matthews only to see him leave and lose a major chunk of their prospect base/draft capital is a bad decision any way you slice it.

The deal could be structured around Matthews agreeing to an extension with the acquiring team beforehand.  Once they know they have him for 9 years, the deal is done.

Sure but there are two minor issues with that. First of all nobody has suggested you wouldn't be able to get a good return for Matthews if he's willing to sign an extension. The only person who said anything about the quality of the return for him was me and I said:

Realistically there's not going to be a "boatload" of picks and prospects if Matthews isn't interested in signing an extension.

But, ok, either way. Then we get back into the reality of what you're suggesting. If Matthews is a year away from free agency and doesn't want to re-sign with the Leafs then odds are the Leafs options trade-wise aren't just any team who could put together the best trade package for him, it will have to be limited to a team that Matthews wants to sign over basically the rest of the prime years of his career to. Now, in your scenario I'm assuming part of Matthews is refusing to sign with the Leafs because of their inability to succeed in the playoffs so how likely is it that he's going to be willing to sign with a team that's effectively a bottom feeder in the NHL? And, in the case of Phoenix, definitely not a team that will be threatening the cap any time soon.

If Matthews has his heart dead set on leaving then he's not going to be inclined to do the Leafs any great favours on his way out the door. He'll treat being traded like free agency and the Leafs will probably be fairly limited in their trading partners to teams Matthews wants to sign an extension with. That means probably a reasonably decent team which means that, once you add Matthews, probably means that any picks you get are going to be towards the back end of the first round.

So, again, we're back to a decent return but not a world ending one if the Leafs don't land it.

 

[ZBBM]

So, is the season over already?  Are they all somewhere on a beach in Belize?

 

[OldTimeHockey]

He'll re-sign or walk. Next to zero chance the Leafs deal him.

Yeah, I gotta say their track record supports this. Unless the Leafs do fire Dubas, then who knows?

There is just no logical approach to trading a player of Auston Matthews caliber unless he says he's walking AND the team is completely out of playoff contention come the deadline. 

And Dubas is not the GM. He's let lots of guys walk to get that last playoff year out of them (among other reasons I'm sure). I mean I guess if they are out of the playoffs then maybe Dubas trades him, but shy of that, Dubas will never in a million years trade Matthews.

Teams that are in strong playoff positions(as the Leafs have been) do not trade valuable players on expiring contracts come trade deadline day. That's not a Dubas thing.

I'm saying that even if they weren't in a strong playoff position, Dubas wouldn't trade Matthews. That's the Dubas thing. I'm not complaining about it. Just saying that anyone that wants or expects the Leafs to trade Matthews if he hasn't signed long-term shouldn't get their hopes up. At least not as long as Dubas is GM.

I think that this could be a discussion if the Leafs somehow drop from a top 6 or 7 team in the league to a bottom feeder. I don't think that's very likely with the talent that is on this team.

I also question what the "Dubas thing" is. What players has he held onto instead of trading at the deadline?

 

[Bill_Berg]

He'll re-sign or walk. Next to zero chance the Leafs deal him.

Yeah, I gotta say their track record supports this. Unless the Leafs do fire Dubas, then who knows?

There is just no logical approach to trading a player of Auston Matthews caliber unless he says he's walking AND the team is completely out of playoff contention come the deadline. 

And Dubas is not the GM. He's let lots of guys walk to get that last playoff year out of them (among other reasons I'm sure). I mean I guess if they are out of the playoffs then maybe Dubas trades him, but shy of that, Dubas will never in a million years trade Matthews.

Teams that are in strong playoff positions(as the Leafs have been) do not trade valuable players on expiring contracts come trade deadline day. That's not a Dubas thing.

I'm saying that even if they weren't in a strong playoff position, Dubas wouldn't trade Matthews. That's the Dubas thing. I'm not complaining about it. Just saying that anyone that wants or expects the Leafs to trade Matthews if he hasn't signed long-term shouldn't get their hopes up. At least not as long as Dubas is GM.

I think that this could be a discussion if the Leafs somehow drop from a top 6 or 7 team in the league to a bottom feeder. I don't think that's very likely with the talent that is on this team.

I also question what the "Dubas thing" is. What players has he held onto instead of trading at the deadline?

Well not many, but he hasn't traded any because they won't sign either I believe, and it's probably a many GM thing. Take the last playoff year rather than dump for assets because the play won't sign. The whole self-rental concept. I don't mean to say it's exclusively a Dubas thing, more that to trade Matthews next year because he won't sign will require a different GM. And maybe even a GM that's looking to cause a ruckus on the roster to boot.

 

[dappleganger]

I think that this could be a discussion if the Leafs somehow drop from a top 6 or 7 team in the league to a bottom feeder. I don't think that's very likely with the talent that is on this team.

I also question what the "Dubas thing" is. What players has he held onto instead of trading at the deadline?

Definitely should have traded Tyson Barrie at the deadline in 2020. There were rumours the Leafs were shopping him and I'd argue the Leafs would have been a better team without his presence. Whatever asset they could have secured would have been better than letting him walk.

Obviously looking back, hindsight 20/20, yadda yadda...

 

[bustaheims]

Well not many, but he hasn't traded any because they won't sign either I believe, and it's probably a many GM thing. Take the last playoff year rather than dump for assets because the play won't sign. The whole self-rental concept. I don't mean to say it's exclusively a Dubas thing, more that to trade Matthews next year because he won't sign will require a different GM. And maybe even a GM that's looking to cause a ruckus on the roster to boot.

Teams that are securely in playoff spots and consider themselves to be real Cup contenders typically don't move significant roster pieces out at the deadline. Obviously, there have been the odd exception over the years, but, it's definitely not a Dubas thing. It's a widespread and very understandable thing - GMs of winning teams are better served by success in the playoffs than by accumulating assets. Obviously, the success has eluded the Leafs so far, but they're still very much in that category of team at the moment.