Avalanche @ Leafs - Nov. 17th, 7:30pm - TSN4, Fan 590

[Kin]

jonasTSN1050: James Reimer now 5-1-2 with a .949 save percentage in his last eight starts.

That's an unsustainable save percentage. That doesn't need to remain to be seen. If, by some miracle, Reimer kept that up for a full season, he would destroy a number of goaltending records.

In the last 5 games they've actually won, they've gotten a .962 SV% from Reimer. I don't think anyone should be overly concerned about that keeping up.

 

[bustaheims]

In all seriousness, they need to improve on their possession numbers a little too, granted they've played some good teams lately, but they have been slipping and that doesn't bode well.

Yeah. They've been chasing the play 5 on 5 on most nights of this streak. That's another fairly solid indication that it's not going to last.

 

[herman]

Holland needs to show he can do this 5v5.

Grabner(71%)-Holland-(73%)-Boyes(81%) All had a great night 5v5, it was weird that they didn't get more ice time, by far our best on the night in terms of tilting the ice the other way.

Yeah, that line dominated tonight. I'm looking for Holland to keep this up over multiple games and not disappear for stretches like he did last year.

 

[ZBBM]

In all seriousness, they need to improve on their possession numbers a little too, granted they've played some good teams lately, but they have been slipping and that doesn't bode well.

Yeah. They've been chasing the play 5 on 5 on most nights of this streak. That's another fairly solid indication that it's not going to last.

What are the SOG numbers during that time?

 

[Kin]

In all seriousness, they need to improve on their possession numbers a little too, granted they've played some good teams lately, but they have been slipping and that doesn't bode well.

Yeah. They've been chasing the play 5 on 5 on most nights of this streak. That's another fairly solid indication that it's not going to last.

What are the SOG numbers during that time?

http://espn.go.com/nhl/team/schedule/_/name/tor/toronto-maple-leafs

 

[ZBBM]

In all seriousness, they need to improve on their possession numbers a little too, granted they've played some good teams lately, but they have been slipping and that doesn't bode well.

Yeah. They've been chasing the play 5 on 5 on most nights of this streak. That's another fairly solid indication that it's not going to last.

What are the SOG numbers during that time?

http://espn.go.com/nhl/team/schedule/_/name/tor/toronto-maple-leafs

Thanks.  We're still getting consistently outshot.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

http://espn.go.com/nhl/team/schedule/_/name/tor/toronto-maple-leafs

Thanks.  We're still getting consistently outshot.

Small sample size here but before November 1st the Leafs had a CF% of 53.7% in 10 games, 5th best in the league during that stretch. Since November 1st (when Bernier went down and Reimer got hot) the Leafs have had a CF% of 45.2% in 9 games, 5th worst in the league during that stretch.

 

[mr grieves]

http://espn.go.com/nhl/team/schedule/_/name/tor/toronto-maple-leafs

Thanks.  We're still getting consistently outshot.

Small sample size here but before November 1st the Leafs had a CF% of 53.7% in 10 games, 5th best in the league during that stretch. Since November 1st (when Bernier went down and Reimer got hot) the Leafs have had a CF% of 45.2% in 9 games, 5th worst in the league during that stretch.

Cool to know. How can you see how they ranked in stat categories of certain stretches of the season...? Didn't know that was possible.

Other small samples I've been following: In the 10 Oct. games, they shot 6.5%, had a .891 team save percentage, 7.4% PP, and 73% PK. I can't see where that put them among everyone else at the end of Oct., but, using today's numbers, they'd place 27th, 28th, 30th, and 29th, respectively.

In the 9 November games, they've shot 9.8% (10th), had a .940 team save percentage (2nd), 32% PP (2nd), and 89% PK (2nd -- though, again, all those rankings are Leafs Nov. against rest of league's season average today).

I wonder if they've switched from learning Babcock's system to focusing on special teams...

 

[hockeyfan1]

If Reimer keeps performing well and his play relegates Bernier as being the unofficial backup, he may attract trade deadline day attention.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Cool to know. How can you see how they ranked in stat categories of certain stretches of the season...? Didn't know that was possible.

War-on-Ice's tools let you look at a specific date range for all teams: http://war-on-ice.com/teamtable.html

 

[bustaheims]

Small sample size here but before November 1st the Leafs had a CF% of 53.7% in 10 games, 5th best in the league during that stretch. Since November 1st (when Bernier went down and Reimer got hot) the Leafs have had a CF% of 45.2% in 9 games, 5th worst in the league during that stretch.

Score adjusted, they were 10th at 51.3 in October and 5th worst in November at 45.9%. Their zone starts have also dropped pretty dramatically, from 54.9% to 44.1%. They're definitely trending in the wrong direction in a lot of ways, and, overall, they've basically hit the median levels - not far off 50% in terms of unadjusted CF% and zone starts, and a PDO right around 100. So, the "real" Leafs probably come in somewhere in between how they looked early in the year and how they've looked of late.

 

[rdowdall]

Small sample size here but before November 1st the Leafs had a CF% of 53.7% in 10 games, 5th best in the league during that stretch. Since November 1st (when Bernier went down and Reimer got hot) the Leafs have had a CF% of 45.2% in 9 games, 5th worst in the league during that stretch.

Score adjusted, they were 10th at 51.3 in October and 5th worst in November at 45.9%. Their zone starts have also dropped pretty dramatically, from 54.9% to 44.1%. They're definitely trending in the wrong direction in a lot of ways, and, overall, they've basically hit the median levels - not far off 50% in terms of unadjusted CF% and zone starts, and a PDO right around 100. So, the "real" Leafs probably come in somewhere in between how they looked early in the year and how they've looked of late.

Does this basically just come down to the fact that they have to cheat the defensive zone in order to win a game?  Is it just that they don't have enough raw talent to win games by playing a proper possession game?  I guess I just don't understand how when their possession numbers are good, they don't win, but when their possession numbers are bad, they do.  I don't think I have seen a stretch over the last five years where their possession numbers were good and they were winning games.

 

[Tigger]

Small sample size here but before November 1st the Leafs had a CF% of 53.7% in 10 games, 5th best in the league during that stretch. Since November 1st (when Bernier went down and Reimer got hot) the Leafs have had a CF% of 45.2% in 9 games, 5th worst in the league during that stretch.

Score adjusted, they were 10th at 51.3 in October and 5th worst in November at 45.9%. Their zone starts have also dropped pretty dramatically, from 54.9% to 44.1%. They're definitely trending in the wrong direction in a lot of ways, and, overall, they've basically hit the median levels - not far off 50% in terms of unadjusted CF% and zone starts, and a PDO right around 100. So, the "real" Leafs probably come in somewhere in between how they looked early in the year and how they've looked of late.

Does this basically just come down to the fact that they have to cheat the defensive zone in order to win a game?  Is it just that they don't have enough raw talent to win games by playing a proper possession game?  I guess I just don't understand how when their possession numbers are good, they don't win, but when their possession numbers are bad, they do.  I don't think I have seen a stretch over the last five years where their possession numbers were good and they were winning games.

It's early but I'd say they probably don't have to cheat as much and they don't have enough raw talent. Could be something to tightening up when you can't rely on goaltending too.

 

[bustaheims]

Does this basically just come down to the fact that they have to cheat the defensive zone in order to win a game?  Is it just that they don't have enough raw talent to win games by playing a proper possession game?  I guess I just don't understand how when their possession numbers are good, they don't win, but when their possession numbers are bad, they do.  I don't think I have seen a stretch over the last five years where their possession numbers were good and they were winning games.

Well, for a good chunk of the last 5 years, there weren't really stretches where their possession numbers were good, but, when they were and they received at least average level goaltending, they did win on a fairly regular basis - unfortunately, that was really only for about half a season when Reimer was first brought up.

As for this season, part of the reason things haven't played out according to the typical script is sample size. A short stretch of games can see the results not reflect the reality of the quality of play - as we've seen time and time again over the past few seasons. Part of it is also the calibre of goaltending they've faced. In their first 10 games, they faced Price twice, Fleury twice (during one of the best stretches of his career) and Lundqvist once. In the more recent stretch, they've seen some backup goalies, some struggling goalies and had 2 wins against a team that, for some reason, they've been able to beat consistently for a few seasons now (they've won 8 of their last 9 against Dallas). Also, they were somewhat fortunate that their worst possession game came against a team that struggled to get their shot attempts on net that night (Nashville).

So, no, I don't think has anything to do with cheating or not having the talent to win while playing a strong possession game (though, I'd say they probably don't - at least, not consistently). There's other factors that have brought about this outcome, and a lot can be chalked up to the small sample sizes.

 

[rdowdall]

Does this basically just come down to the fact that they have to cheat the defensive zone in order to win a game?  Is it just that they don't have enough raw talent to win games by playing a proper possession game?  I guess I just don't understand how when their possession numbers are good, they don't win, but when their possession numbers are bad, they do.  I don't think I have seen a stretch over the last five years where their possession numbers were good and they were winning games.

Well, for a good chunk of the last 5 years, there weren't really stretches where their possession numbers were good, but, when they were and they received at least average level goaltending, they did win on a fairly regular basis - unfortunately, that was really only for about half a season when Reimer was first brought up.

As for this season, part of the reason things haven't played out according to the typical script is sample size. A short stretch of games can see the results not reflect the reality of the quality of play - as we've seen time and time again over the past few seasons. Part of it is also the calibre of goaltending they've faced. In their first 10 games, they faced Price twice, Fleury twice (during one of the best stretches of his career) and Lundqvist once. In the more recent stretch, they've seen some backup goalies, some struggling goalies and had 2 wins against a team that, for some reason, they've been able to beat consistently for a few seasons now (they've won 8 of their last 9 against Dallas). Also, they were somewhat fortunate that their worst possession game came against a team that struggled to get their shot attempts on net that night (Nashville).

So, no, I don't think has anything to do with cheating or not having the talent to win while playing a strong possession game (though, I'd say they probably don't - at least, not consistently). There's other factors that have brought about this outcome, a

Yeah, I guess you can't look at one thing in isolation.  I just remember last year near the end of the season, when they didn't win ever, their possession numbers were better than the start of the season when they won fairly consistently.  I suppose it doesn't matter if you have the puck a lot if your shooting percentage is crap and/or your save percentage is crap because those values trump owning the puck for a long period of time.

So Corsi is shots ( like all shots ) and PDO is your save and shot percentage combined.  I didn't see anything that really tied possession though to the save % and shot %.  Is there a correlation that an increase in possession increases your PDO?