Canucks @ Leafs - Jan. 5th, 7:00pm - CBC, Fan 590

[herman]

Yeah. I read an article a couple weeks ago that suggested part of the reason the Leafs get less PP opportunities is because they take so few penalties. Generally, the refs try to keep the penalty totals fairly even (last night was obviously not an example of this), so, they sort of end up in the mindset that they can?t call the marginal stuff on one team when they have nothing to call on the other team or they have to call the marginal stuff on one because the other team is committing more serious fouls. That?s really more of what?s happening to the Leafs most nights.

https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2018/11/26/18111011/do-the-maple-leafs-need-to-be-a-little-more-dirty-penalties-power-play-differential

 

[Andy007]

Yeah. I read an article a couple weeks ago that suggested part of the reason the Leafs get less PP opportunities is because they take so few penalties. Generally, the refs try to keep the penalty totals fairly even (last night was obviously not an example of this), so, they sort of end up in the mindset that they can?t call the marginal stuff on one team when they have nothing to call on the other team or they have to call the marginal stuff on one because the other team is committing more serious fouls. That?s really more of what?s happening to the Leafs most nights.

https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2018/11/26/18111011/do-the-maple-leafs-need-to-be-a-little-more-dirty-penalties-power-play-differential

I certainly don't think there's a widespread conspiracy, I just felt that it was odd for the Leafs, of all teams, to have the fewest PP opportunities in the entire league. Interesting article, could explain some of it, for sure.

 

[Bender]

I really think that it's not very becoming to try and blame the referees for everything. To think that the NHL refs have some sort of back room deal to keep the Leafs PP off the ice is a little far fetched.

It know it sounds crazy but I really can't wrap my head around the fact that the 2nd best team in the NHL, mainly comprised of uber talented, speedy, finesse players, without any goons or grinders on the roster, can be last in the entire NHL in PP opportunities. It just does not compute.

I get it, but that's still called a conspiracy theory. I mean, I don't see a lot of hooking and grabbing happening. Am I the only one?

There's no conspiracy, but I definitely thought there were at least a couple of calls last night that could've made for the Leafs.

 

[Kin]

I think it's important to keep in mind the sort of numbers we're talking about. The teams with the most PP opportunities gets 3.74 a game. The Leafs are at 2.66. So it's just more than one PP per game difference between the top and bottom. That actually sort of speaks to a sort of pretty real consistency among refs.

I say this a lot but the 05/06 and 06/07 seasons saw fans do nothing but complain about the number of penalties being called. So we know Refs aren't just calling everything they see but are using some sort of discretion. As fans, we're going to notice when that discretion works against us but less so when it works for us. It's really just the nature of the beast.

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/iangraph/status/1082034474815115264

If you want to draw more penalties, take more penalties.

 

[bustaheims]

Strong correlation in that graph, for sure. Stays strong going back season over season, too.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

There's no conspiracy, but I definitely thought there were at least a couple of calls last night that could've made for the Leafs.

I'm pretty sure most people would say that about most games they've watched their team play.

 

[Zee]

There's no conspiracy, but I definitely thought there were at least a couple of calls last night that could've made for the Leafs.

I'm pretty sure most people would say that about most games they've watched their team play.

But then most teams wouldn't be 31st in powerplays awarded like the Leafs are

 

[Bender]

There's no conspiracy, but I definitely thought there were at least a couple of calls last night that could've made for the Leafs.

I'm pretty sure most people would say that about most games they've watched their team play.

But then most teams wouldn't be 31st in powerplays awarded like the Leafs are

Exactly and I was referring to a 0 penalty game by the Canucks, which is a little ridiculous, not one where we had a few and could've had more. Iirc there was a hook behind the boards by a nucks player who did the classic wasn't me motion that made it even more blatant and no call, and that's just my morning brain.

It's just funny that a team with speed that keeps their feet moving are 31st in penalties drawn.

 

[herman]

The Leafs aren?t 31st in penalties drawn* by raw numbers or per game rate.

They have the 6th best penalty differential (36 min more drawn than taken).

https://www.foxsports.com/nhl/team-stats?season=2018&category=MISCELLANEOUS&group=1&time=0&pos=0&team=1&page=1

* Edit: Hmm, looks like in minutes, we're not 31st, but in just number of calls (per Corsica, we are 31st in drawn and 31st in taken).

People only remember what they notice and fans tend to only notice things in their team?s favour or injustices committed against them.

 

[herman]

If I was reffing this game and it was pretty clear from the outset that Toronto was going to run away with this, I probably wouldn?t be inclined to call anything for them unless it was unavoidable: dangerous hits, puck over glass, playing with a broken stick, too many men, etc.

http://objectivenhl.blogspot.com/2011/03/loose-ends-part-ii-score-effects-and.html

Back in November of last year, I looked at whether there were any score effects in relation to minor penalties. The conclusion? Playing from behind has a significant positive effect on powerplay differential. That is, teams tend to be much better at drawing penalties when trailing, as compared to when leading or when the game is tied.

If there is any conspiracy, it?s that the NHL stacks the deck in favour of parity or the perception of parity (close games = drama = eyeballs on the game), hence the OTL point and shootout design.

The Leafs in the past two years have been predominantly holding leads. A similar team in Carolina (young, fast, shoots lots) has around the same volume of calls as us (not much) and more favourable differential (they?re not not often leading in goals).

 

[Bullfrog]

If there is any conspiracy, it?s that the NHL stacks the deck in favour of parity or the perception of parity (close games = drama = eyeballs on the game), hence the OTL point and shootout design.

While recognizing you said "if", it seems this would be more prone to simple human bias. That is, there's no conspiracy, but the refs are human and humans lean towards parity.

 

[CatScratchFever]

I really think that it's not very becoming to try and blame the referees for everything. To think that the NHL refs have some sort of back room deal to keep the Leafs PP off the ice is a little far fetched.

To think the league doesn't exercise control over referees and how they make calls is naive. With Bettman dedicated to league parity it wouldn't surprise me to learn there's a directive that refs contribute to said parity. That translates into penalties called because it was that team's "turn" to take one, penalties designed to give the losing team a chance to get back in the game, penalties called to help small-market darlings. We've seen all these calls time and again. The only question is, are the refs doing it on their own due to personal bias or because they too are team players?

 

[Frank E]

I really think that it's not very becoming to try and blame the referees for everything. To think that the NHL refs have some sort of back room deal to keep the Leafs PP off the ice is a little far fetched.

To think the league doesn't exercise control over referees and how they make calls is naive. With Bettman dedicated to league parity it wouldn't surprise me to learn there's a directive that refs contribute to said parity. That translates into penalties called because it was that team's "turn" to take one, penalties designed to give the losing team a chance to get back in the game, penalties called to help small-market darlings. We've seen all these calls time and again. The only question is, are the refs doing it on their own due to personal bias or because they too are team players?

No.

 

[Kin]

To think the league doesn't exercise control over referees and how they make calls is naive. With Bettman dedicated to league parity it wouldn't surprise me to learn there's a directive that refs contribute to said parity.

Every sports executive in the world knows that the most fundamentally important thing to their game is the public's faith that things are honest and fair. Believing Bettman would risk that, risk any single official who'd be subject to that "direction" speaking out about it, for little to no benefit is ridiculous.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

I really think that it's not very becoming to try and blame the referees for everything. To think that the NHL refs have some sort of back room deal to keep the Leafs PP off the ice is a little far fetched.

To think the league doesn't exercise control over referees and how they make calls is naive. With Bettman dedicated to league parity it wouldn't surprise me to learn there's a directive that refs contribute to said parity. That translates into penalties called because it was that team's "turn" to take one, penalties designed to give the losing team a chance to get back in the game, penalties called to help small-market darlings. We've seen all these calls time and again. The only question is, are the refs doing it on their own due to personal bias or because they too are team players?

To think that the NHL goes into a referee meeting and says "make sure you even things up because we want to have close games" is almost as crazy as above. Do you not think that something would of come out about this.

I'll agree that it's human nature to side with the underdog/team trailing. I don't think that is planned. I think it just happens. I'll give an example(though not the best as it deals with my competitive girls team that I coach):
Yesterday, we played a game against boys and we were clearly the better team. We were better skaters, stronger on the puck, you name it. The team we were playing was getting away with trips, hooks, holds, you name it....At one point I loudly asked the referee if it was because we were a better team. At the next whistle, he came over to the bench to politely ask me to shut up. I told him that I was okay with being quiet as long as he'd admit that we were a stronger skating team and to confirm that he wasn't holding off on calling penalties against the other team because of that fact. He said "Of Course Not"....Well, the next thing that happened was 3 back to back to back penalties against the other team.

My point of the above is my having the opportunity to point the fact out to him was enough to make him think about it. I don't think he was doing it on purpose, I think it's human nature to allow the weaker opponent a little leniency to kind of even the playing field. I don't think these refs were directed by the local hockey association to keep the games close.