Contracts for the Big-3

[Peter D.]

I think this was happening whether or not Tavares was signed, and I have no regrets about the Tavares signing.

I have absolutely no regrets with the Tavares signing either -- I was pushing for the Leafs to go all in for him and then worry about the other guys' contracts afterwards.

But I don't think there'd be a months' long stalemate over a few hundred thousand if there wasn't an additional $11 million clogging up the cap.  I can't see any scenario where the Leafs can keep all four by taking up anywhere from $35 to $40 million of the cap combined.

The problem isn't with Tavares' 11M hit, it's with the Kessel retention and Clarkson/Horton deal and the Marleau overpay (maybe worth it to some extent) and to some degree the Zaitsev deal.

Adding $11 million is going to affect your salary structure any way you slice it. 

We can get into those other contracts, but no one is going to point out on the other end that the Rielly and Kadri deals are severe underpayments which has helped lower the team's salaries. 

 

[herman]

We can get into those other contracts, but no one is going to point out on the other end that the Rielly and Kadri deals are severe underpayments which has helped lower the team's salaries.

I point them out frequently They're the ones you never trade.

At the time of their signings, I thought they were severe underpays for what I projected their value to be but they're in line with market valuations of their respective platform performances.

 

[cabber24]

Scoring is out of control this season. This and last year's stats should be prorated when calculating new contracts. On Nov 30 of the last 3 seasons the number of players that were scoring at a 1 point-per-game or higher pace(Parameter: played at least 10 games).

Nov 30, 2016: 7
Nov 30, 2017: 31
Nov 30, 2018: 49

 

[princedpw]

We can get into those other contracts, but no one is going to point out on the other end that the Rielly and Kadri deals are severe underpayments which has helped lower the team's salaries.

I point them out frequently They're the ones you never trade.

At the time of their signings, I thought they were severe underpays for what I projected their value to be but they're in line with market valuations of their respective platform performances.

We got super-lucky that Kadri's shooting percentage tanked in his platform year. 

 

[princedpw]

Scoring is out of control this season. This and last year's stats should be prorated when calculating new contracts. On Nov 30 of the last 3 seasons the number of players that were scoring at a 1 point-per-game or higher pace(Parameter: played at least 10 games).

Nov 30, 2016: 7
Nov 30, 2017: 31
Nov 30, 2018: 49

Interesting.  Thanks for this tidbit.

 

[herman]

I would 8M x 8 yrs this easily:

https://twitter.com/billius27/status/1068511141524107264
https://twitter.com/NickDeSouza_/status/1017179204792848388

 

[Kin]

Yeah, 8x8 was never unreasonable. It was just higher than people might have liked. I get that. Once you have one Kadri deal you want them all to be Kadri deals but that's not really the way things go.

 

[lamajama]

After reading the multitude of posts here, I have to disagree with those that say Dubas has "botched" this negotiation and this is
for the simple fact that no one knows anything about the numbers - only what the media has thrown out there. Dubas may be offering
a very reasonable deal and Willy (and I still hold true in my mind that his Dad is a PITA influence) won't take it. Likewise Willy may
be asking for a number that is just plain unreasonable vs his value. So to assign blame to Dubas or Willy for that matter is premature until
the numbers come out - even then we may never hear the real story.

I think it also says something that other teams apparently aren't lining up to pay Willy (some I have "heard" may be willing to go into the
$7.5 area) either.

This contract has to fit within the value of the player and the team structure. I think it's also telling that Marner in particular is showing
by his play that he will be deserving of a higher-than-we-hoped next contract.

Again all speculation but I really wonder why Willy does not take the bridge deal and prove himself worthy of a large deal. If, by his play, he plays himself out of Toronto due to Cap issues, then it's essentially the same as what might occur now but he gets to hopefully enjoy playing
on a Cup contending team.

From a personal note I have been waiting for this for over 50 years (excluding 93-94 and a little in early 2000 years). We finally have drafted true superstars on this team that the rest of the league envies and have a real team that should be able to go the ultimate distance. Yes we have issues on the blueline and are not as complete a team as Nashville, TB and Winnipeg but I've never been as optimistic and enjoying
watching them play for many many years.

And so, in true Leafian fashion  , we have the longest stalemate with a very good player who would make us even that more exciting to watch and enjoy. 

I'm not placing blame on anyone - just that if crap like this is going to happen..it happens to the team I bleed for... :-\

To see this team with Willy on it this year (because Jake is gone next year esp if Willy's $$$ are on the team) would be spectacular.

To toss yet another grenade into the whole mix is as good as Marleau has been last year and so-so this year that $6 mil off the books
next year would have been great. I know the structure of his deal apparently pays him only $1 mil next year so he could be flipped to
a cap-floor team for the $6 mil AAV but based on Babcock's love for Patty I just don't see them approaching Marleau to waive his no-trade
and "disrespect" such a gud-pro. 

Unless of course that was a wink-wink discussion when they signed him...but I doubt that. He has I believe been a pretty good influence on the team.

The Leafs, like life, can be pretty confusing.....

 

[Guilt Trip]

Yeah, 8x8 was never unreasonable. It was just higher than people might have liked. I get that. Once you have one Kadri deal you want them all to be Kadri deals but that's not really the way things go.

Nothing is an unreasonable ask. Now if he's sticking to not dropping below his reported 8+ mill ask then it is unreasonable because according to some GM's around the league, he isn't worth more then 7. For me this has nothing to do with a Kadri type deal so I don't know why you'd even mention his contract. I don't expect him to sign for anything south of 6.5 mill unless it's a bridge deal.
Anyway everything is still speculation because NO ONE knows the numbers being talked about between the 2 so we wait and see. I hope he's signed for a fair contract where everyone is happy and we get to see what this team can do.

 

[Kin]

After reading the multitude of posts here, I have to disagree with those that say Dubas has "botched" this negotiation and this is for the simple fact that no one knows anything about the numbers - only what the media has thrown out there. Dubas may be offering a very reasonable deal and Willy (and I still hold true in my mind that his Dad is a PITA influence) won't take it.

As I said above, even if that's the case I still think Dubas has mangled the negotiations. Saying that I think he's botched this is not numbers dependent.

Again all speculation but I really wonder why Willy does not take the bridge deal and prove himself worthy of a large deal.

As you say, we have no idea what sort of offers are on the table. So the idea of a bridge deal as some sort of quick and easy compromise doesn't necessarily hold up.

Especially because just about everyone here who suggests a bridge deal seems to do so on the idea that "Ok, you don't want to be underpaid for 6 years, so how about we underpay you even more for 2 years" is going to be an attractive offer.

 

[BermudaBudsFan]

It's difficult for me to conclude that Dubas has botched the negotiation when the negotiation hasn't concluded.  Let's see what happens by 5 p.m. tomorrow.  About all I can conclude at this stage is that not having Nylander as yet hasn't destroyed the Leafs season.  They are in a very nice spot in the standings and are poised to continue it, hopefully with Nylander in the lineup.  Whether it has indeed been screwed up by Dubas will take some time to reveal itself.

 

[Kin]

Nothing is an unreasonable ask.

If he were asking for 10+ million that would be pretty hard to justify. 8 million is on the high side for what his play would warrant but as I've said before, it's very hard to disconnect at least some of that from things that are less a reflection of his play and more just about the way the team has chosen to use him.

Now if he's sticking to not dropping below his reported 8+ mill ask then it is unreasonable because according to some GM's around the league, he isn't worth more then 7.

1. If any GM's feel that way and want to be taken seriously they're welcome to attach their names to it.

2. GMs are not impartial observers when it comes to player salaries. "Chicken Coop Security is Needlessly Complex say unnamed Foxes".

 

[Zee]

It's difficult for me to conclude that Dubas has botched the negotiation when the negotiation hasn't concluded.  Let's see what happens by 5 p.m. tomorrow.  About all I can conclude at this stage is that not having Nylander as yet hasn't destroyed the Leafs season.  They are in a very nice spot in the standings and are poised to continue it, hopefully with Nylander in the lineup.  Whether it has indeed been screwed up by Dubas will take some time to reveal itself.

I think there's a shift in mentality on the players side and the Leafs are on the bleeding edge of it.  This Nylander contract will be precedent setting going forward.  Young players are tired of not getting the really big payday until their 3rd contracts and he's the first of probably many who are going to challenge this.  It's almost as if Dubas is taking one for the rest of the league.

 

[Kin]

It's almost as if Dubas is taking one for the rest of the league.

If I'm going to play armchair psychologist here I think there's a good possibility that Dubas wants to endear himself to the fraternity with this, his first big contract negotiation.

 

[jdh1]

It's difficult for me to conclude that Dubas has botched the negotiation when the negotiation hasn't concluded.  Let's see what happens by 5 p.m. tomorrow.  About all I can conclude at this stage is that not having Nylander as yet hasn't destroyed the Leafs season.  They are in a very nice spot in the standings and are poised to continue it, hopefully with Nylander in the lineup.  Whether it has indeed been screwed up by Dubas will take some time to reveal itself.

  I can't see Dubas messing this up. He is working within the cap system that,s before him.The fact that they signed Taveras for 11 mil pretty well tells me that Nylander was not in their long term plan. He is being offered around the league and I think will be traded.

 

[Zee]

It's almost as if Dubas is taking one for the rest of the league.

If I'm going to play armchair psychologist here I think there's a good possibility that Dubas wants to endear himself to the fraternity with this, his first big contract negotiation.

The rest of the league has a vested interest in Dubas "winning" this as they'll have their own RFAs coming up and want a reasonable solution to this.  I think it's part of the reason nobody uses offer sheets, there might be some GMs willing to do so, but they'd have to get sign off from ownership and as we all know, they all want salaries to stay down.

 

[Kin]

The rest of the league has a vested interest in Dubas "winning" this as they'll have their own RFAs coming up and want a reasonable solution to this.  I think it's part of the reason nobody uses offer sheets, there might be some GMs willing to do so, but they'd have to get sign off from ownership and as we all know, they all want salaries to stay down.

I don't really think ownership cares. For them, the cap guarantees that they're only paying X number of dollars. I think they trust GMs to decide how that amount gets divided.

GMs, though, do care. Because getting their star players signed for as little as possible means they have the most possible wiggle room to supplement those stars with role players without necessarily relying on their drafting/development which would shine a big old light on their failures if they aren't able to churn out talent. Like I've said before, keeping 4 star players at 45% of the cap or so on doesn't mean you can't fill out a roster, what it means is that there is less room for the Patrick Marleaus and Ron Hainseys and GMs love those guys because they're easy answers to difficult questions.

 

[BermudaBudsFan]

It's difficult for me to conclude that Dubas has botched the negotiation when the negotiation hasn't concluded.  Let's see what happens by 5 p.m. tomorrow.  About all I can conclude at this stage is that not having Nylander as yet hasn't destroyed the Leafs season.  They are in a very nice spot in the standings and are poised to continue it, hopefully with Nylander in the lineup.  Whether it has indeed been screwed up by Dubas will take some time to reveal itself.

I think there's a shift in mentality on the players side and the Leafs are on the bleeding edge of it.  This Nylander contract will be precedent setting going forward.  Young players are tired of not getting the really big payday until their 3rd contracts and he's the first of probably many who are going to challenge this.  It's almost as if Dubas is taking one for the rest of the league.

Not sure about the rest of the league, but I will certainly accede to the possibility that he wishes to make it known he is a tough negotiator for the purposes of his club.

 

[bustaheims]

Not sure about the rest of the league, but I will certainly accede to the possibility that he wishes to make it known he is a tough negotiator for the purposes of his club.

There's elements of both here. There are so many prominent RFAs that are due for new contracts after this season, and that's a big part of the reason we're hear speculation about other GMs not liking the money Nylander is rumoured to be asking for - they have a vested interest in seeing him sign for as little as possible, so when they're negotiating with their own RFAs in the summer, they can point to Nylander's contract and be like "you produced less/similarly/marginally better than he did before he signed his deal, why do you deserve that much more?". On top of that, Dubas is certainly trying to establish himself in terms of contract negotiations, as he also has a number of prominent RFAs (and at least one significant UFA) to deal with in summer.

 

[princedpw]

It's almost as if Dubas is taking one for the rest of the league.

If I'm going to play armchair psychologist here I think there's a good possibility that Dubas wants to endear himself to the fraternity with this, his first big contract negotiation.

The rest of the league has a vested interest in Dubas "winning" this as they'll have their own RFAs coming up and want a reasonable solution to this.  I think it's part of the reason nobody uses offer sheets, there might be some GMs willing to do so, but they'd have to get sign off from ownership and as we all know, they all want salaries to stay down.

This is not true. No matter what salaries are negotiated, the amount of money the owners get stays the same ? it is a fixed percentage of revenues.  The only thing that can change is how money is allocated amongst different classes players.