Contracts for the Big-3

[Zee]

That's not quite the entire picture. They would take the total value of the contract over the term, or 5 years whichever is smaller.

Example if a team offered Nylander 7 years x $8M (presumably something Nylander would take) that is total value of $56M, however they would divide that number by 5 to determine compensation.

$56M/5 = 11.2 and would mean the team gives up 4 first round picks.

 

[Guru Tugginmypuddah]

That's not quite the entire picture. They would take the total value of the contract over the term, or 5 years whichever is smaller.

Example if a team offered Nylander 7 years x $8M (presumably something Nylander would take) that is total value of $56M, however they would divide that number by 5 to determine compensation.

$56M/5 = 11.2 and would mean the team gives up 4 first round picks.

Holy crap. Did not know that.  Thanks Zee.

 

[Zee]

That's not quite the entire picture. They would take the total value of the contract over the term, or 5 years whichever is smaller.

Example if a team offered Nylander 7 years x $8M (presumably something Nylander would take) that is total value of $56M, however they would divide that number by 5 to determine compensation.

$56M/5 = 11.2 and would mean the team gives up 4 first round picks.

Holy crap. Did not know that.  Thanks Zee.

I just learned this recently too. So if his agent insisted on a 7 year deal from another team (in the imagination land where offer sheets actually happened) it would have to be 7.2 for 7 years to stay less than 4 first round picks. The Leafs would match that though as 7.2M is workable in the cap.

 

[jdh1]

Four  1st round picks for Nylander.  I would take that in a heart beat.

 

[Zee]

Four  1st round picks for Nylander.  I would take that in a heart beat.

Depends what team. If it's a contender they would be low first round picks and you won't get another Nylander, if it's a marginal playoff or bottom feeder than absolutely I'd want the picks for the lottery opportunity alone

 

[Kin]

Four  1st round picks for Nylander.  I would take that in a heart beat.

I wouldn't. Especially without having any control over where those picks were coming from.

 

[Kin]

Depends what team. If it's a contender they would be low first round picks and you won't get another Nylander, if it's a marginal playoff or bottom feeder than absolutely I'd want the picks for the lottery opportunity alone

If it's a marginal playoff team or bottom feeder they A) probably wouldn't offer a contract like that unless they really felt they were close to contending status and B) Nylander would be strongly incentivized to sign a 5 year deal so his new team wouldn't be severely hampered in their ability to build around him.

 

[jdh1]

Four  1st round picks for Nylander.  I would take that in a heart beat.

Depends what team. If it's a contender they would be low first round picks and you won't get another Nylander, if it's a marginal playoff or bottom feeder than absolutely I'd want the picks for the lottery opportunity alone

Bottom feeders probably wouldn't do it for fear it could end up like Ottawa this year. However 1st pick for 4 years even from a contender could change in one or two years where they would end up in the middle.

I think the reason that they don't want to over pay for him because of his tendency to take the odd game off.  Give him 6 years and he might want to take even more.  I,m a bit iffy with him long term.

 

[Zee]

Four  1st round picks for Nylander.  I would take that in a heart beat.

Depends what team. If it's a contender they would be low first round picks and you won't get another Nylander, if it's a marginal playoff or bottom feeder than absolutely I'd want the picks for the lottery opportunity alone

Bottom feeders probably wouldn't do it for fear it could end up like Ottawa this year. However 1st pick for 4 years even from a contender could change in one or two years where they would end up in the middle.

I think the reason that they don't want to over pay for him because of his tendency to take the odd game off.  Give him 6 years and he might want to take even more.  I,m a bit iffy with him long term.

You can do alot with four first round picks though. I mean Leafs traded 2 firsts and a 2nd for Kessel so say they took team X's offer and got 4 firsts. Leafs could package their own first this season (low first) and the other teams first in 2020 for example and get a good player back. Leafs would still have a first this year (from team X) and their own first next year in that scenario and still have 2 more firsts from the Nylander offer sheet.

 

[slapshot]

Curious about people's opinions on these regarding Nylander?

1. What do you think we'll see most likely, bridge or longer term?
2. If bridge deal, how long and at what dollar amount?
3. If long-term, how long and at what dollar amount?
4. Do you think it gets done before the season starts?
5. Given the fact the Leafs are deep on the right side, with Marner, Kapanen, Brown and with Bracco (coming along), the Leafs could trade from strength to either 1) shore up the defence 2) strengthen the left wing, with the departure of JVR and Marleau's career winding down. What do you think the chances of something like that happening?

Personally, in terms of bargaining power, Nylander camp has none except to sit out and eventually that will cost them. Leafs hold all the cards at this point. Seems like some kind of crazy ego thing going on that they think he is closer in talent to Matthews and Marner than he really is. He's very talented but I don't see the level of consistency on a nightly basis.

 

[Kin]

Curious about people's opinions on these regarding Nylander?

1. What do you think we'll see most likely, bridge or longer term?
2. If bridge deals, how long and at what dollar amount?
3. If long-term, how long and at what dollar amount?
4. Do you think it gets done before the season starts?
5. Given the fact the Leafs are deep on the right side, with Marner, Kapanen, Brown and with Bracco (coming along), the Leafs could trade from strength to either 1) shore up the defence 2) strengthen the left wing, with the departure of JVR and Marleau's career winding down. What do you think the chances of something like that happening?

1. At this point, bridge.
2. 2 years, 11 million
3. 6/44
4. If bridge, yes. Long term, no.
5. I don't think that is particularly deep on the right side unless you're comparing it to an even worse left side. I think odds are that if they trade Nylander as a result of a contract impasse, the Leafs will end up worse and not better so I think the odds of that are fairly low.

 

[slapshot]

Hoping you are right at number 3, but would like to keep it to 40 mil

 

[sickbeast]

Four  1st round picks for Nylander.  I would take that in a heart beat.

Depends what team. If it's a contender they would be low first round picks and you won't get another Nylander, if it's a marginal playoff or bottom feeder than absolutely I'd want the picks for the lottery opportunity alone

Bottom feeders probably wouldn't do it for fear it could end up like Ottawa this year. However 1st pick for 4 years even from a contender could change in one or two years where they would end up in the middle.

I think the reason that they don't want to over pay for him because of his tendency to take the odd game off.  Give him 6 years and he might want to take even more.  I,m a bit iffy with him long term.

You can do alot with four first round picks though. I mean Leafs traded 2 firsts and a 2nd for Kessel so say they took team X's offer and got 4 firsts. Leafs could package their own first this season (low first) and the other teams first in 2020 for example and get a good player back. Leafs would still have a first this year (from team X) and their own first next year in that scenario and still have 2 more firsts from the Nylander offer sheet.

It's a moot point anyways because no team in their right mind would overpay for Nylander and also surrender four first round picks in the process.  It's madness.  This gives me confidence that the Leafs will work out a deal with him, one way or another.  If Nylander decides to sit out, it's his loss.  And he will pay the price big time in the long run if he does that.  Dubas holds all the power here.  I would be shocked to see Nylander get more than $7 million on a long term deal.

 

[mr grieves]

Yeah, I've wondered about this too.
If I were an agent looking to get the best deal for my player, I'd do this.
If I were another team looking to make a rival club sweat, I'd do this.
Probably comes down to way GMs collude to keep salaries low.

Because compensation is too low. In order for an offer sheet to have any real chance of succeeding they basically have to make the compensation more valuable than the player they're signing.

Compensation's irrelevant, as I'm expecting the Leafs to match. "Success" here is screwing up the cap situation of a rival, one slight overpay at a time.

Effectively, saying you'd do it as a GM is either saying you'd drive up the price of your own RFAs for no real benefit or it's saying you'd be out there signing RFAs to salaries they can't justify to put pressure on other teams. Regardless, you probably wouldn't be GMing for long.

Yeah, I acknowledged in the initial post that a league-wide desire to keep RFA contracts as low as possible is what's stopping GMs from doing this -- they probably worry that the price of their own RFAs would be driven up.

But we all agree fair compensation for Nylander is in that $7.5-8m range. That's the sort of offer sheet I thought the OP had in mind. The Leafs aren't offering that because they want him at a number better for their long term salary structure, that'll keep them maximally competitive for as long as possible. If I were a rival GM -- call me, say, Lou -- and I wanted to put pressure on the Leafs now or limit their ability to keep all their pieces together in the future, I'd offer Nylander a fair contract, one which wouldn't necessarily drive up the costs of my own players -- at least not beyond what I could afford since I'm not among the league's contenders.

Leafs match. So I don't get him, I keep the picks, but I get to console myself in the "failure" by knowing that I've made Kyle Dubas's job a bit harder in a few years and made the league a bit more competitive down the line.

 

[sickbeast]

Yeah, I've wondered about this too.
If I were an agent looking to get the best deal for my player, I'd do this.
If I were another team looking to make a rival club sweat, I'd do this.
Probably comes down to way GMs collude to keep salaries low.

Because compensation is too low. In order for an offer sheet to have any real chance of succeeding they basically have to make the compensation more valuable than the player they're signing.

Compensation's irrelevant, as I'm expecting the Leafs to match. "Success" here is screwing up the cap situation of a rival, one slight overpay at a time.

Effectively, saying you'd do it as a GM is either saying you'd drive up the price of your own RFAs for no real benefit or it's saying you'd be out there signing RFAs to salaries they can't justify to put pressure on other teams. Regardless, you probably wouldn't be GMing for long.

Yeah, I acknowledged in the initial post that a league-wide desire to keep RFA contracts as low as possible is what's stopping GMs from doing this -- they probably worry that the price of their own RFAs would be driven up.

But we all agree fair compensation for Nylander is in that $7.5-8m range. That's the sort of offer sheet I thought the OP had in mind. The Leafs aren't offering that because they want him at a number better for their long term salary structure, that'll keep them maximally competitive for as long as possible. If I were a rival GM -- call me, say, Lou -- and I wanted to put pressure on the Leafs now or limit their ability to keep all their pieces together in the future, I'd offer Nylander a fair contract, one which wouldn't necessarily drive up the costs of my own players -- at least not beyond what I could afford since I'm not among the league's contenders.

Leafs match. So I don't get him, I keep the picks, but I get to console myself in the "failure" by knowing that I've made Kyle Dubas's job a bit harder in a few years and made the league a bit more competitive down the line.

No GM in their right mind is going to do that.  4 first round picks?  No way.  The Leafs would take those picks and run.  And then the GM that tabled that offer would be fired.

 

[Kin]

But we all agree fair compensation for Nylander is in that $7.5-8m range. That's the sort of offer sheet I thought the OP had in mind. The Leafs aren't offering that because they want him at a number better for their long term salary structure, that'll keep them maximally competitive for as long as possible. If I were a rival GM -- call me, say, Lou -- and I wanted to put pressure on the Leafs now or limit their ability to keep all their pieces together in the future, I'd offer Nylander a fair contract, one which wouldn't necessarily drive up the costs of my own players -- at least not beyond what I could afford since I'm not among the league's contenders.

Again, I think the ultimate outcome of that is just that you put very marginal pressure on a rival while initiating a market that would raise pressure on everyone. The issue isn't whether or not you'd be offering the Nylander a "fair" salary, it's whether by opening the floodgates to RFA offer sheets being a common tactic you wouldn't then be introducing some of the same inefficiencies to RFA pay that you see with UFA contracts.

And if you, Lou, feel comfortable with making an offer like that because you're not a contender then you're also probably taking a huge risk that the Leafs wouldn't match and be happy to take your draft picks off your hands. Which, as we saw with Kessel, can be a long term negative for you even if the player you get is a very good one.

Remember that players have to agree to offer sheets. So unless you're offering them something way over and above what their team is willing to match, you probably have to also do some schmoozing and convincing them not only of your desire for them to join your team but your belief that you can build a winning club around them. Again, your idea here is that a team would do all this in bad faith just to slightly mess with another team's cap.

Which is the final thing. I don't think teams are really going to let it mess with their cap too much. Dubas may very well be hoping to get Nylander at 6-7 for his long term plans but Nylander at 7-8 would just make their future depth thornier, not a disaster.

So that strikes me as a lot of risk for an absurdly low payoff.

 

[princedpw]

[quote author=mr grieves]
But we all agree fair compensation for Nylander is in that $7.5-8m range.
[/quote]

Im not sure we all agree on that one. For an 8 year contract ... maybe.

 

[cabber24]

[quote author=mr grieves]
But we all agree fair compensation for Nylander is in that $7.5-8m range.

Im not sure we all agree on that one. For an 8 year contract ... maybe.
[/quote]
6.something in all ranges.

 

[Zee]

Hypothetical Monday:

So what if Nylander's camp won't budge off his ask (and say it's in the $8M range) and he asks for a trade?  What would you do?

 

[Frank E]

Curious about people's opinions on these regarding Nylander?

1. What do you think we'll see most likely, bridge or longer term?
2. If bridge deal, how long and at what dollar amount?
3. If long-term, how long and at what dollar amount?
4. Do you think it gets done before the season starts?
5. Given the fact the Leafs are deep on the right side, with Marner, Kapanen, Brown and with Bracco (coming along), the Leafs could trade from strength to either 1) shore up the defence 2) strengthen the left wing, with the departure of JVR and Marleau's career winding down. What do you think the chances of something like that happening?

Personally, in terms of bargaining power, Nylander camp has none except to sit out and eventually that will cost them. Leafs hold all the cards at this point. Seems like some kind of crazy ego thing going on that they think he is closer in talent to Matthews and Marner than he really is. He's very talented but I don't see the level of consistency on a nightly basis.

1.  Longer Term
2.  I don't see it happening - opens flood gates for bridge with other 2 guys.
3.  5 x $6.75m.
4.  I still think it gets done before game 1.
5.  I have a hard time getting to the point where they trade him...and I don't see them being deep enough with what's coming down the pipe.