Contracts for the Big-3

[cabber24]

Hypothetical Monday:

So what if Nylander's camp won't budge off his ask (and say it's in the $8M range) and he asks for a trade?  What would you do?

Let him sit and let him think LONG and hard about his position.

 

[Coco-puffs]

[quote author=mr grieves]
But we all agree fair compensation for Nylander is in that $7.5-8m range.

Im not sure we all agree on that one. For an 8 year contract ... maybe.
[/quote]

Exactly.  My "fair" number is certainly different based on term. 
6 yrs?  6.75M is probably fair based on history.
8 yrs?  7.5M is probably fair based on history.

Essentially, RFA years come at a discount compared to UFA years.  That's just the leverage that teams have.  Further, under 4 years of NHL service the player doesn't have arbitration rights.  So the progression, if you are looking at 1 yr deals constantly, given Nylander's CURRENT production and the cap increasing each year:
yr 1:  4M
yr 2:  6M  (arbitration eligible)
yr 3:  6.5M
yr 4:  7M
yr 5:  8.5M  (UFA... )
yr 6:  9M
yr 7:  9.5M
yr 8:  10M

That works out to a 6 yr deal averaging 6.83M or an 8 yr deal averaging 7.56M.

Now, that doesn't include his impact/production increasing- turning into a PPG player would obviously increase his expectations on salary down the road.  That can be offset by front-loading the contract to some degree and making it lockout-proof.  (Money now is worth more than future money).

So if I'm the team... I'd probably wait it out with something like 6.5m X 6, front-loaded and lockout proof.  On an 8 yr deal, I'd probably stick to my guns at 7.25M x 8, again front-loaded and lockout proof.

And I wouldn't think those aren't fair offers at this point in time.  If I'm Nylander, I'm choosing the 6 yr deal because I'd bet on myself that I can pull in much more than 9.5/10M per year on my next contract. 

 

[mr grieves]

And if you, Lou, feel comfortable with making an offer like that because you're not a contender then you're also probably taking a huge risk that the Leafs wouldn't match and be happy to take your draft picks off your hands. Which, as we saw with Kessel, can be a long term negative for you even if the player you get is a very good one.

Yeah, it'd be a bad move for Lou, and the only potential upside would be, y'know, spite. But if I were GM of a team that's on the way up, I'd consider it. Panthers and Buffalo (well, maybe next year) in the Leafs division, or any of the teams are likely to have to get through the Leafs in the East at some point in the next 5 years -- so, NJ, Philadelphia, Carolina, maybe Columbus.

Remember that players have to agree to offer sheets. So unless you're offering them something way over and above what their team is willing to match, you probably have to also do some schmoozing and convincing them not only of your desire for them to join your team but your belief that you can build a winning club around them. Again, your idea here is that a team would do all this in bad faith just to slightly mess with another team's cap.

Yes, but I'd imagine there are plenty of RFAs who know that the team that holds their rights would match within the 24 (48?) hour window. How many times has the original team not matched? And the end result is that the player would be under contract -- a good one -- on the team they want to play for. So, if I were Nylander's agent and a $8 x 7 year offer sheet showed up from the Panthers, I'd see it as a way of resolving my client's contract stalemate.

Which is the final thing. I don't think teams are really going to let it mess with their cap too much. Dubas may very well be hoping to get Nylander at 6-7 for his long term plans but Nylander at 7-8 would just make their future depth thornier, not a disaster.

Like I said, death by a thousand paper cuts. Hobble a contender through a bunch of small overpayments.

It's a pretty low payoff, and one that's non-exclusive to the team taking the risk and making an enemy in doing it, so, yeah, I get why it isn't done by anyone in the managers' fraternity. 

 

[mr grieves]

[quote author=mr grieves]
But we all agree fair compensation for Nylander is in that $7.5-8m range.

Im not sure we all agree on that one. For an 8 year contract ... maybe.

Exactly.  My "fair" number is certainly different based on term. 
6 yrs?  6.75M is probably fair based on history.
8 yrs?  7.5M is probably fair based on history.
[/quote]

I was taking the "we want him to be here for a long time" to mean an 8 year contract. And $7.5-8m is fair with that sort of contract length.

 

[Coco-puffs]

[quote author=mr grieves]
But we all agree fair compensation for Nylander is in that $7.5-8m range.

Im not sure we all agree on that one. For an 8 year contract ... maybe.

Exactly.  My "fair" number is certainly different based on term. 
6 yrs?  6.75M is probably fair based on history.
8 yrs?  7.5M is probably fair based on history.

I was taking the "we want him to be here for a long time" to mean an 8 year contract. And $7.5-8m is fair with that sort of contract length.
[/quote]

I think 6 years is a pretty long deal as well.  Hence why people were saying they don't necessarily agree.  If you had stated "... fair compensation for Nylander is in that $7.5-8m range on a max length deal" you'd have less people disagreeing.

 

[Zee]

I don't think I've ever searched on Twitter more often for a term.  "Nylander" and "Nylander contract".  That's gotta be breaking records in the GTA on Twitter.

 

[cabber24]

I am not stressed at all... we're a pretty good team. He can wait and sign at number that works for the team.

 

[Zee]

I am not stressed at all... we're a pretty good team. He can wait and sign at number that works for the team.

It's just fascinating to watch it play out on your own team.  I know there's a handful of guys every year that go through this but I never really cared before cause it wasn't the Leafs.  Leafs aren't under any pressure to get this done since the team is still good without Nylander, so Dubas holds the hammer here.  Will be interesting to see how this gets resolved.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

I am not stressed at all... we're a pretty good team. He can wait and sign at number that works for the team.

It's just fascinating to watch it play out on your own team.  I know there's a handful of guys every year that go through this but I never really cared before cause it wasn't the Leafs.  Leafs aren't under any pressure to get this done since the team is still good without Nylander, so Dubas holds the hammer here.  Will be interesting to see how this gets resolved.

The last time I remember a player of significance holding out was Kaberle. I believe that was 2000 or 2001

 

[Zee]

I am not stressed at all... we're a pretty good team. He can wait and sign at number that works for the team.

It's just fascinating to watch it play out on your own team.  I know there's a handful of guys every year that go through this but I never really cared before cause it wasn't the Leafs.  Leafs aren't under any pressure to get this done since the team is still good without Nylander, so Dubas holds the hammer here.  Will be interesting to see how this gets resolved.

The last time I remember a player of significance holding out was Kaberle. I believe that was 2000 or 2001

You mean from the Leafs.  Recently there's been other guys who've signed very late.  Trouba comes to mind as he signed in November I think.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

I am not stressed at all... we're a pretty good team. He can wait and sign at number that works for the team.

It's just fascinating to watch it play out on your own team.  I know there's a handful of guys every year that go through this but I never really cared before cause it wasn't the Leafs.  Leafs aren't under any pressure to get this done since the team is still good without Nylander, so Dubas holds the hammer here.  Will be interesting to see how this gets resolved.

The last time I remember a player of significance holding out was Kaberle. I believe that was 2000 or 2001

You mean from the Leafs.  Recently there's been other guys who've signed very late.  Trouba comes to mind as he signed in November I think.

Yes, I mean from the leafs.

 

[Kin]

Yeah, it'd be a bad move for Lou, and the only potential upside would be, y'know, spite. But if I were GM of a team that's on the way up, I'd consider it. Panthers and Buffalo (well, maybe next year) in the Leafs division, or any of the teams are likely to have to get through the Leafs in the East at some point in the next 5 years -- so, NJ, Philadelphia, Carolina, maybe Columbus.

If I were the GM of a team on the way up, I'd probably have my own future cap issues to concern myself with that rated of a higher importance than throwing a tiny potential monkey wrench at other teams.

I probably also wouldn't want to open the door to teams doing that to me if I wanted to be in the Leafs position soon.

Yes, but I'd imagine there are plenty of RFAs who know that the team that holds their rights would match within the 24 (48?) hour window. How many times has the original team not matched? And the end result is that the player would be under contract -- a good one -- on the team they want to play for. So, if I were Nylander's agent and a $8 x 7 year offer sheet showed up from the Panthers, I'd see it as a way of resolving my client's contract stalemate.

I'm sure you're going to say that you're just using the Panthers as an example here but the fact that the Panthers don't have anywhere near the cap space to make that offer or the draft picks to make any offer outside of one where they would have to be risking 4 first rounders is another thing to consider as to why those offers don't get made.

Like I said, death by a thousand paper cuts. Hobble a contender through a bunch of small overpayments.

How does that work? Teams don't have lots and lots of RFAs. Are you going to convince all of them to sign with you at an inflated price? And then not think that will have an inflationary impact on your own guys.

I'm really starting to see why you're not running an up and coming NHL team.

 

[Kin]

I am not stressed at all... we're a pretty good team. He can wait and sign at number that works for the team.

It's just fascinating to watch it play out on your own team.  I know there's a handful of guys every year that go through this but I never really cared before cause it wasn't the Leafs.  Leafs aren't under any pressure to get this done since the team is still good without Nylander, so Dubas holds the hammer here.  Will be interesting to see how this gets resolved.

The last time I remember a player of significance holding out was Kaberle. I believe that was 2000 or 2001

Nylander isn't holding out, he doesn't have a contract.

And Kadri didn't sign his bridge deal until mid-September.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

I am not stressed at all... we're a pretty good team. He can wait and sign at number that works for the team.

It's just fascinating to watch it play out on your own team.  I know there's a handful of guys every year that go through this but I never really cared before cause it wasn't the Leafs.  Leafs aren't under any pressure to get this done since the team is still good without Nylander, so Dubas holds the hammer here.  Will be interesting to see how this gets resolved.

The last time I remember a player of significance holding out was Kaberle. I believe that was 2000 or 2001

Nylander isn't holding out, he doesn't have a contract.

And Kadri didn't sign his bridge deal until mid-September.

Insert Eye Roll here.

 

[Zee]

I am not stressed at all... we're a pretty good team. He can wait and sign at number that works for the team.

It's just fascinating to watch it play out on your own team.  I know there's a handful of guys every year that go through this but I never really cared before cause it wasn't the Leafs.  Leafs aren't under any pressure to get this done since the team is still good without Nylander, so Dubas holds the hammer here.  Will be interesting to see how this gets resolved.

The last time I remember a player of significance holding out was Kaberle. I believe that was 2000 or 2001

Nylander isn't holding out, he doesn't have a contract.

And Kadri didn't sign his bridge deal until mid-September.

Kadri signed the day before training camp began with the Leafs so he missed nothing.  We're well beyond that point with Nylander.

 

[Kin]

Kadri signed the day before training camp began with the Leafs so he missed nothing.  We're well beyond that point with Nylander.

We're 12 days beyond that point.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

Kadri signed the day before training camp began with the Leafs so he missed nothing.  We're well beyond that point with Nylander.

We're 12 days beyond that point.

I'd say the difference between 12 days in August and 12 days from the first day of training camp is significant.

But wait, I'm holding out for a reason that I'm wrong. And go!

 

[Kin]

I'd say the difference between 12 days in August and 12 days from the first day of training camp is significant.

You're certainly free to think that any and every day is as significant as you like. Carpe Diem as they say. Where we are from when Kadri signed and now, relative to the opening of camp, is 12 days regardless though.

 

[Deebo]

Nylander isn't holding out, he doesn't have a contract.

I don't where that definition of holdout came from but I hear sports radio guys say the same thing. That it isn't a hold out if you don't have a contract. I would call failing to report when you are under contract a breach of contract, not a hold out.

The dictionary definition of holdout seems to describe what Nylander is doing:

http://www.learnersdictionary.com/definition/holdout

1 : a person who refuses to reach an agreement until certain terms are met

https://www.collinsdictionary.com/dictionary/english/holdout

someone that does not agree or consent, usually because they are attempting to gain concessions or a better deal

https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/holdout

1. An act of resisting something or refusing to accept what is offered.

 

[Kin]

I don't where that definition of holdout came from but I hear sports radio guys say the same thing. That it isn't a hold out if you don't have a contract. I would call failing to report when you are under contract a breach of contract, not a hold out.

The dictionary definition of holdout seems to describe what Nylander is doing:

http://www.learnersdictionary.com/definition/holdout

1 : a person who refuses to reach an agreement until certain terms are met

https://www.collinsdictionary.com/dictionary/english/holdout

someone that does not agree or consent, usually because they are attempting to gain concessions or a better deal

https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/holdout

1. An act of resisting something or refusing to accept what is offered.

Right, so in this situation you could either go with common usage or you could go with a dictionary definition of holdout that would technically apply to both Nylander and Dubas and also probably Marner or Matthews(who I assume were offered deals and turned them down) or any UFA with a contract offer from anyone.

Personally, it feels like the former is more useful but I am always happy to have a discussion about the evolution of language.