Contracts for the Big-3

[Zee]

Has anyone said what they think is fair for Willy? Looking at Cap Friendly as much as I wouldn't want Willy making Draisaitl money (Draisaitl I think is just bigger and better overall, better point totals etc.) than Willy, there are plenty of worse players in the 7-7.5M range that are definitely worse than he is. Bobby Ryan? Mark Stone? David Krejci? Evander Kane? I have to think Nylander is better than those guys.... Maybe 7.5M does it?

So you have Connor Brown and Zack Hyman locked in as well.  That gives you 12 players to sign and 20 million to do it with.  Nathan Horton can be used for a 5

I think the absolute highest the Leafs can afford for Nylander (assuming the rest of the roster beyond the big 4 aren't budget players) would be $7M.  Leafs are probably trying to get him at $6.5 as each and every 100k is gonna count.

Let's say for argument sake:
Matthews : 12
Tavares: 11
Marner: 8
Nylander : 7
-----------------------
that's $38M on 4 players. 

Let's assume cap next season is $82M, you have $44M left for 19 players, or an average of $2.31M, that ain't gonna work especially when you already have Marleau at 6.25, Andersen at $5, Rielly at $5, Kadri at 4.5 and Zaitsev at 4.5.  Doesn't leave alot of money for anyone else on the roster.

I think the position in the lineup is important to look at though. The following people are also signed for next year:

Travis Dermott - 863,333
Zack Hyman - 2.25 Million
Connor Brown - 2.1 Million

So if you think about it, that's your top 8 forwards accounted for and 3 of your defencemen and your starting goalie.  So doing all that math you have 12 players locked up at 63.46 million.  So you have about 19 mill to sign 11 players, which is 1.72 million per player.  So that is you bottom 4 forwards, three defencemen and a backup goalie.  Also you have the 5 million of Nathan Horton for LTIR.

If you can get your 4th line plus reserve forward, bottom pairing D-men plus extra d and backup goalie for  1 million or less, you are now looking at 8 players that take up 8 million of that remaining 19 million, give or take.  So now you are at 3 players to sign for 11 million, and the guy who is going to be the hardest in that group is going to be Jake Gardiner, and that's if you want to keep him.  I even think there is some wiggle room to give the big 3 a little more money than what you have listed.   

They just have to get through next year, and they gotta hope that guys like Grundstrom can fill out roles on entry level contracts, but I don't think having the 4 superstars making a lot of money is really all that bad for the team, considering the Leafs have pretty much said this is the plan for winning a cup for them.

Yeah there are ways to do it, hell you can pay Matthews, Marner and Nylander each $12.5M a year and still have a team, but the bottom part of the roster is going to be all ELC or league minimum guys after you factor in Andersen, Kadri, Rielly and Marleau

 

[sickbeast]

Guys, I'm just asking this, but is there any walking back from this now?  It really seems like at the very least it is doing long term damage to the relationship between the player and the team.  Just listening to Shanahan's comments yesterday, he was not happy.  I'm guessing Nylander is not happy either.  It sounds like in a lot of these cases the player winds up traded or else signing for much less money with another team.

What about signing him and then trading him?  I guess that still hinges on signing him for a reasonable amount, and if they do, it begs the question of why not use him themselves (the Leafs' offense is completely killer if they have Nylander).

 

[Bender]

If this creates animosity between all parties then all parties are idiots.

I just mean that business is business, players hold out, teams hold out. That's the nature of the beast. A deal will get done eventually.

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[Guilt Trip]

If this creates animosity between all parties then all parties are idiots.

I just mean that business is business, players hold out, teams hold out. That's the nature of the beast. A deal will get done eventually.

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Exactly. This isn't arbitration where all the bashing comes out. Just business. Both want the same result just different numbers.

 

[Highlander]

Guys, I'm just asking this, but is there any walking back from this now?  It really seems like at the very least it is doing long term damage to the relationship between the player and the team.  Just listening to Shanahan's comments yesterday, he was not happy.  I'm guessing Nylander is not happy either.  It sounds like in a lot of these cases the player winds up traded or else signing for much less money with another team.

What about signing him and then trading him?  I guess that still hinges on signing him for a reasonable amount, and if they do, it begs the question of why not use him themselves (the Leafs' offense is completely killer if they have Nylander).

Shanahan was the man with the vision and the plan, brought in the components to work his plan and trust Dubas, after some Lou mentoring to put it all in place. Building a image of returning the Leafs to there long lost glory and asking the players to buy into this and take one for the team to some extent.
Hey I understand the flip side to this coin perfectly, why not capitalize on your short career with as many dollars as you can, you have that right.  I think that 7.25 will get this done without selling the farm.  This way you compromise, you get a huge amount of money and work the Shanahan vision, which we as fans all share. 
Right now it seems Nylander is bit mercenary and that is leaving a lot of fans with a bad taste in their mouths.
Best to work a deal asap that both sides can live with.

 

[Kin]

ight now it seems Nylander is bit mercenary and that is leaving a lot of fans with a bad taste in their mouths.

Those fans should probably grow up.

 

[Zee]

Read up on the Gaudreau contract from 2 years ago. On October 2nd they interviewed his agent (same as Nylander's agent) and this write up was interesting:

"The day before the Sept. 9 conversation, The Calgary Sun?s Eric Francis reported Gaudreau asked for a contract ?in the $8-million range,? while the Flames wanted him somewhere between Sean Monahan ($6.375-million annual average value) and Mark Giordano($6.75-million AAV)."

So Gaudreau was also asking for $8M, and then on October 10th signed for $6.75 (although he signed right before the season started)

 

[Guilt Trip]

ight now it seems Nylander is bit mercenary and that is leaving a lot of fans with a bad taste in their mouths.

Those fans should probably grow up.

Absolutely. Nylander is doing nothing wrong and neither are the Leafs. It will work out in the end. Fans need to chill.

 

[sickbeast]

Read up on the Gaudreau contract from 2 years ago. On October 2nd they interviewed his agent (same as Nylander's agent) and this write up was interesting:

"The day before the Sept. 9 conversation, The Calgary Sun?s Eric Francis reported Gaudreau asked for a contract ?in the $8-million range,? while the Flames wanted him somewhere between Sean Monahan ($6.375-million annual average value) and Mark Giordano($6.75-million AAV)."

So Gaudreau was also asking for $8M, and then on October 10th signed for $6.75 (although he signed right before the season started)

Thanks for that.  An ending like that would probably be good for both sides.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

On October 10th, 2016 Rickard Rakell's agent said "we are not looking at things the same way" when discussing contract talks between Rakell and Anaheim. Four days later they signed a 6-year contract and now he's one of their core players still 2 years later.

That same October it took the Ducks and defenceman Hampus Lindholm all the way up to October 27th for the two sides to agree to a 6-year contract, and again two years later he's still a core player there.

Again, it definitely sucks that all this is happening. No one would said it's ideal. But at this point there's no reason to think that this will cause any long-term issues between Nylander and the Leafs. If we're getting closer to the December 1st RFA deadline and there still isn't a deal done then I think we can start to doubt Nylander will be a Leaf long-term.

 

[Phileas Fogg]

In a way, it's amazing how quickly the narrative from Leaf fans has come from "we have no talent and we suck" to "it sucks we have to pay for so much talent".

 

[princedpw]

If this creates animosity between all parties then all parties are idiots.
.

Unfortunately, there are many idiots in this world and one has to deal with them.

Im surprised Shanny made the comments he did.  Im not sure how they help. A typical response to a show of force and being told what to do is to have the other side dig their heels in.

 

[Zee]

If this creates animosity between all parties then all parties are idiots.
.

Unfortunately, there are many idiots in this world and one has to deal with them.

Im surprised Shanny made the comments he did.  Im not sure how they help. A typical response to a show of force and being told what to do is to have the other side dig their heels in.

Strategy.  I assume the contract talks have been between Dubas (with Pridham/Gilman) and the agent. Maybe the agent is hoping there was pressure from above to get a deal done. Shanahan's comments tell the agent the Leafs are steadfast in their strategy and he won't put pressure on the GM to get a deal done at any cost

 

[Guru Tugginmypuddah]

If this creates animosity between all parties then all parties are idiots.
.

Unfortunately, there are many idiots in this world and one has to deal with them.

Im surprised Shanny made the comments he did.  Im not sure how they help. A typical response to a show of force and being told what to do is to have the other side dig their heels in.

Strategy.  I assume the contract talks have been between Dubas (with Pridham/Gilman) and the agent. Maybe the agent is hoping there was pressure from above to get a deal done. Shanahan's comments tell the agent the Leafs are steadfast in their strategy and he won't put pressure on the GM to get a deal done at any cost

I'm sure part of the agents strategy is to take advantage of Dubas being a rookie GM, and quite a young one at that, and to make him sweat.

 

[Average Joes]

Part of me wonders if a little of what is going on is the agent not wanting to be perceived as caving as he apparently did with Gaudreau. Having such a reputation can have a negative impact in future negotiations.

If the reports are true that Nylander's agent is stuck at $8 million I have to wonder whose turn it is to make the next offer. If it is Nylander's it is usually pretty unreasonable to stick at your number unless you found the leafs offer nearly insulting. The exception is usually that you are hell bent on staying put. Although there are also people that stay near their initial ask then come down significantly. I find that a bad way to negotiate and it drags things out unnecessarily. At least this is my experience from settling a ton of litigation claims. A different game of course than what we have here but I see similarities.

 

[IJustLurkHere]

...

If the reports are true that Nylander's agent is stuck at $8 million I have to wonder whose turn it is to make the next offer. If it is Nylander's it is usually pretty unreasonable to stick at your number unless you found the leafs offer nearly insulting.

...

So, I?m not sure how people believe contract negotiations work, but No negotiation I?ve ever heard works by a TV like scripted process where 6 turns to 8 turns to 6.5 turns to 7.5 turns to 7 and everyone shakes hands...

While there seems to be a view that the Leafs wanted 6ish (whether 6, 6.5 etc) you have to think if Nylander would accept sub 7, this thing would be done. Equally, with the reports of Nylander wanting 8+, you have to think if that were in the Leafs range, this would be done. That?s without considering term.

That doesn?t mean they settle at 7.5 and move on. It likely means they have to agree a common starting point, fit it to a term and agree on a number. When those variables are considered, term is possibly the hardest one. If they want to go 8 years, then Draisaitl can?t be that surprising a comparison... and if they don?t want to bridge without bringing him to FA age, there?s a common ground which needs to be sought there too.

By the time something like this rolls into the regular season, there?s a fair bet the sides haven?t found their agreed common ground to negotiate from. One side or other needs to accept that William Nylander means more/less to the team than agreed so far...

One more ?offer? won?t be the holdup.

 

[Hobbes]

...It likely means they have to agree a common starting point, fit it to a term and agree on a number. When those variables are considered, term is possibly the hardest one. If they want to go 8 years, then Draisaitl can?t be that surprising a comparison... and if they don?t want to bridge without bringing him to FA age, there?s a common ground which needs to be sought there too.

By the time something like this rolls into the regular season, there?s a fair bet the sides haven?t found their agreed common ground to negotiate from. One side or other needs to accept that William Nylander means more/less to the team than agreed so far...

One more ?offer? won?t be the holdup.

Also add in whether the UFA years of that include NTC (and whether it is limited) or NMC, what the structure of payments is (heavy on bonus to protect Nylander against a 2020 lockout year), etc...

 

[Average Joes]

So, I?m not sure how people believe contract negotiations work, but No negotiation I?ve ever heard works by a TV like scripted process where 6 turns to 8 turns to 6.5 turns to 7.5 turns to 7 and everyone shakes hands...

By no means the perfect meet down the middle but there is usually give and take with each offer.  Sometimes it doesn't work that way of course.  I have never negotiated a sports contract. I have negotiated employment contracts for clients but not many.  Most of my experience is negotiating a ton of litigation claims.

What I fear is if Nylander's side won't budge from $8 million if Toronto came up on their offer. That tends to drag things out on negotiations from my experience and upsets the side that came up. This is with the view that in the $6s seems to be where more of the comparable contracts are at. Not that we have any idea what is actually going on.

 

[Zee]

If this creates animosity between all parties then all parties are idiots.
.

Unfortunately, there are many idiots in this world and one has to deal with them.

Im surprised Shanny made the comments he did.  Im not sure how they help. A typical response to a show of force and being told what to do is to have the other side dig their heels in.

Strategy.  I assume the contract talks have been between Dubas (with Pridham/Gilman) and the agent. Maybe the agent is hoping there was pressure from above to get a deal done. Shanahan's comments tell the agent the Leafs are steadfast in their strategy and he won't put pressure on the GM to get a deal done at any cost

I'm sure part of the agents strategy is to take advantage of Dubas being a rookie GM, and quite a young one at that, and to make him sweat.

I have no doubt that's what the agent is hoping.  This is Dubas's first kick at the can and they hope he blinks. Shanahan coming out with his comments put an end to that.

 

[Highlander]

ight now it seems Nylander is bit mercenary and that is leaving a lot of fans with a bad taste in their mouths.

Those fans should probably grow up.

I think I grew up after having a son and living through 8 hurricanes and losing everything three times. And rebuilding everything each time.