Coronavirus

[Bender]

Also Sickkids pushing the idea that kids don't transmit is asinine. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

Source? I must have missed this.

http://www.sickkids.ca/PDFs/About-SickKids/81497-COVID19-Recommendations-for-School-Reopening-SickKids-JUNE.pdf

They present it here as a hypothesis on page 3

Ok, I read it, (the verbiage is actually on page 2). It doesn't say anything even close to "kids don't transmit" which is what you've attributed to them in your quote; they've simply added some reviewed theory on why it they might not be as much as feared, which is a massive difference. That thinking may evolve with more research, and they've stated as much.

I think pretty highly of SK, hence why I donate a fair bit annually - I think one has to be careful when attributing controversial statements without context.

I also donate to Sickkids, and I think no institution is above reproach or criticism. Point taken re: attribution, but what I'm saying is if the takeaway that people are getting, (besides the document because people take in information in many ways other than firsthand view of the doc) is that kids don't transmit or seem less likely to transmit then that is problematic because there isn't enough evidence to support that (have we already forgotten about asymptomatic spread which could explain fewer cases/lack of testing in younger ages?). I mentioned a colleague who said that he was told that kids weren't likely to transmit which seems to me is a communication disconnect somewhere. They in the same document raise skepticism about mask use for kids and even teaching staff. Its just fascinating to see this guidance vs. what we had over the summer- our bubbles that we are told to follow are highly affected by this guidance. To me it seems they are carefully choosing what to prioritize and not recommending masks full stop and leaning into the idea that kids may not transmit as easily without contrary data within the document to me is just wrong if you're trying to present a full picture of disease spread and allow parents to make a fully informed decision (which has flawed data because kids at home will likely not contract virus vs. kids at school) vs. a reassurance document.

And I don't want to rail on Sickkids for this, I get where they're coming from, but ultimately the government is going to leverage the heck out of this document and have already been acting pretty hostile toward teachers who don't think existing guidance goes far enough.



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[CarltonTheBear]

Not a great week for new cases here. From Monday to today it was: 313, 251, 315, 293, 401.

 

[Kin]

I mean, I don't think any of us didn't know that the press to open back up "for the economy" wasn't going to lead to this resurgence without a vaccine in place.

 

[Bender]

Ford govt also voted down mandating a cap of 15 kids per class. Their political capital is quickly evaporating, I have no idea why they couldn't pass that.

 

[Peter D.]

The back to school transition, for our school at least, has gone way better than I expected it to have.  I do think they'll be shut down again, but maybe not as soon as I thought they'd be (by Thanksgiving). 

The kids don't feel out of sorts nor anxious about having to wear masks at school, which they expressed and became one of our biggest worries.  I'm glad the kids are back at school.  Save for seeing the kids, teachers and parents wearing masks, it looks like every other ordinary school year.  In class it's obviously different, but the kids never really talk about it, and instead tell us what they did for their day, which is great.

 

[Bender]

The back to school transition, for our school at least, has gone way better than I expected it to have.  I do think they'll be shut down again, but maybe not as soon as I thought they'd be (by Thanksgiving). 

The kids don't feel out of sorts nor anxious about having to wear masks at school, which they expressed and became one of our biggest worries.  I'm glad the kids are back at school.  Save for seeing the kids, teachers and parents wearing masks, it looks like every other ordinary school year.  In class it's obviously different, but the kids never really talk about it, and instead tell us what they did for their day, which is great.

I just think back to when I was a kid. Would I be nervous at first? Sure, but kids are super adaptable and I'd wear a mask for sure if they said it would keep me safe. It'd almost be like a security blanket.

 

[Bullfrog]

We've had a similar experience here. My son is totally fine with everything. I'm so glad he's in school and not in remote class. The only thing that annoys him is that at recess time he has to stick with his cohort. He's in a grade 6/7 split and a lot of his friends are in a separate full grade 6 class.

We're back up to one confirmed case in my region, so I think we'll be fine here for quite some time.

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/sandrodemaio/status/1307935684838092801
Oof

 

[Frank E]

You have to be a little careful with the economic decline data when comparing nations.

Some nations aren't printing money to the same extent as others, which will prop up your GDP at different rates.

 

[herman]

You have to be a little careful with the economic decline data when comparing nations.

Some nations aren't printing money to the same extent as others, which will prop up your GDP at different rates.

Why is GDP the primary concern

 

[OldTimeHockey]

Ford govt also voted down mandating a cap of 15 kids per class. Their political capital is quickly evaporating, I have no idea why they couldn't pass that.

Teachers. Building space. Bussing.

 

[Frank E]

Ford govt also voted down mandating a cap of 15 kids per class. Their political capital is quickly evaporating, I have no idea why they couldn't pass that.

Teachers. Building space. Bussing.

Massive costs.  And right now the province is already incurring massive levels of debt, as everyone knows.

 

[Kin]

I think we have pretty solid evidence at this point that not effectively managing the virus will cost more than reasonable containment measures.

 

[Bender]

I think we have pretty solid evidence at this point that not effectively managing the virus will cost more than reasonable containment measures.

Right. I mean the cost of another lockdown supercedes everything by far. Either we walk the line or we don't.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

I think we have pretty solid evidence at this point that not effectively managing the virus will cost more than reasonable containment measures.

Right. I mean the cost of another lockdown supercedes everything by far. Either we walk the line or we don't.

You're not wrong.
But ultimately, there is no way to put 15 students in a classroom and send all kids to school every day. There is no space. There is certainly not enough bussing. And the biggest one, there isn't enough teachers. My wife is a principal and they are already pushing the outer limits of their supply teacher pool. This is in week 2. Next will be university students as teachers.

We could have rotating days/weeks where kids are only at school half time but what do parents do when their 4 year old is at home? Take every second day/week off? Putting them in day care is probably the only option. Which, blows up your bubble/cohort and you've just eliminated any benefit of putting kids on a rotating schedule.

 

[Frank E]

I think we have pretty solid evidence at this point that not effectively managing the virus will cost more than reasonable containment measures.

That doesn't make every request reasonable.

 

[Kin]

That doesn't make every request reasonable.

I think there are a lot of things that are going to look extreme to a lot of people but when the alternative is making a resurgence of the virus a matter of when and not if they probably still need to be considered.

 

[Bender]

I think we have pretty solid evidence at this point that not effectively managing the virus will cost more than reasonable containment measures.

Right. I mean the cost of another lockdown supercedes everything by far. Either we walk the line or we don't.

You're not wrong.
But ultimately, there is no way to put 15 students in a classroom and send all kids to school every day. There is no space. There is certainly not enough bussing. And the biggest one, there isn't enough teachers. My wife is a principal and they are already pushing the outer limits of their supply teacher pool. This is in week 2. Next will be university students as teachers.

We could have rotating days/weeks where kids are only at school half time but what do parents do when their 4 year old is at home? Take every second day/week off? Putting them in day care is probably the only option. Which, blows up your bubble/cohort and you've just eliminated any benefit of putting kids on a rotating schedule.

Isn't coming up with a solution the job of the government? I mean really just look at what successful countries are doing, what the best practices are right now and emulate them as best you can.This problem isn't unique to us. What's happening now is a predictable backslide because we were overconfident in our ability to reopen, maybe had our reopening priorities backwards (why are strip clubs open?) and aren't moving fast enough for containment.

So far what we've seen is to limit spread in schools is containment from community spread like in Norway and Denmark. We haven't done that and the consequences are coming.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

I think we have pretty solid evidence at this point that not effectively managing the virus will cost more than reasonable containment measures.

Right. I mean the cost of another lockdown supercedes everything by far. Either we walk the line or we don't.

You're not wrong.
But ultimately, there is no way to put 15 students in a classroom and send all kids to school every day. There is no space. There is certainly not enough bussing. And the biggest one, there isn't enough teachers. My wife is a principal and they are already pushing the outer limits of their supply teacher pool. This is in week 2. Next will be university students as teachers.

We could have rotating days/weeks where kids are only at school half time but what do parents do when their 4 year old is at home? Take every second day/week off? Putting them in day care is probably the only option. Which, blows up your bubble/cohort and you've just eliminated any benefit of putting kids on a rotating schedule.

Isn't coming up with a solution the job of the government? I mean really just look at what successful countries are doing, what the best practices are right now and emulate them as best you can. This problem isn't unique to us. What's happening now is a predictable backslide because we were overconfident in our ability to reopen, maybe had our reopening priorities backwards (why are strip clubs open?) and aren't moving fast enough for containment.

So far what we've seen is to limit spread in schools is containment from community spread like in Norway and Denmark. We haven't done that and the consequences are coming.

I never said that solutions weren't the responsibility of the government. You said that the government should of mandated classes of 15. I stated why that wasn't a possible scenario on such short notice. Again, the buildings don't exist, nor do the teachers. You can't come up with solutions for that.

As for the "why are strip clubs open" comment....why not? Just because I don't necessarily agree with them, doesn't mean that the business owner doesn't have the right to earn his living. He's trying to keep his black lights on too. As soon as restaurants and pubs opened, strip clubs had to be given the ability to open.

 

[Kin]

As for the "why are strip clubs open" comment....why not? Just because I don't necessarily agree with them, doesn't mean that the business owner doesn't have the right to earn his living.

It's not a moral objection, it's a practical one. Social distancing seems slightly more realistic in restaurants than in strip clubs and contact tracing is more effective in situations where everyone isn't giving a fake name.