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David Clarkson

pnjunction said:
I wonder how long before management has to acknowledge he is a lost cause and save what little cap hit we can burying him in the minors Liles-style.  I guess it depends on Nonis' shelf life since it will probably take a management change before the gravity of this mistake is so fully admitted.

With this deal I think Nonis basically blew a 5.25M black hole in our cap space for 7 years to come which I'm afraid counters most or all of the good he has done since taking over.  It was such an insane level of UFA hype to get sucked into that I think it may be held up as an example for years to come.
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They'll be many more long term, big money contracts handed out this summer and beyond.  There is no learning when it comes to GMs because they think "this time, he's the one"
 
Potvin29 said:
A Weekend at Bernier's said:
I'm trying to think about other instances where an unrestricted free agent has signed a big dollar, big term contract, struggled mightily, but eventually returned to previously displayed form.  Guys like Penner, Gomez, and Drury signed big, over-the-top deals.  But they all performed rather well in the first few years, only to have their performance tail off significantly later in the contract. 

What's so concerning is that most posters on this forum thought Clarkson would follow a similar route: decent performance in the first part of the contract followed by a pretty low pay:results ratio later on.  I don't think even the most skeptical here (well, maybe with the exception of the heartbroken Mr. Grieves), would have thought that Clarkson would play so poorly in the first year of the deal at age 29. 

I still have a hint of optimism and hope that injury, pressure and lack of continuity have negatively affected Clarkson's play this year.  But that hope is wavering, big time.
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I feel like this quote is going to haunt Nonis:

?I?m not worried about six or seven right now,? Nonis said. ?I?m worried about one. And Year One, I know we?re going to have a very good player. I believe that he?s got a lot of good years left in him.?
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Mirtle nailed it good at the time: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/leafs-beat/the-problem-with-david-clarksons-new-contract/article13067766/
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It's not like the numbers Mirtle came up with were a surprise.  It's mind-boggling why GMs keep making deals like this.  Could it be that, as a group, they just aren't as smart as we think they are?
 
draglikepull: I tried pulling a list of historical comparables for David Clarkson. #1's hilarious as a Leafs fan. http://t.co/F50TgvqYFT

#1 is pretty funny.
 
Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate said:
Potvin29 said:
A Weekend at Bernier's said:
I'm trying to think about other instances where an unrestricted free agent has signed a big dollar, big term contract, struggled mightily, but eventually returned to previously displayed form.  Guys like Penner, Gomez, and Drury signed big, over-the-top deals.  But they all performed rather well in the first few years, only to have their performance tail off significantly later in the contract. 

What's so concerning is that most posters on this forum thought Clarkson would follow a similar route: decent performance in the first part of the contract followed by a pretty low pay:results ratio later on.  I don't think even the most skeptical here (well, maybe with the exception of the heartbroken Mr. Grieves), would have thought that Clarkson would play so poorly in the first year of the deal at age 29. 

I still have a hint of optimism and hope that injury, pressure and lack of continuity have negatively affected Clarkson's play this year.  But that hope is wavering, big time.
Click to expand...

I feel like this quote is going to haunt Nonis:

?I?m not worried about six or seven right now,? Nonis said. ?I?m worried about one. And Year One, I know we?re going to have a very good player. I believe that he?s got a lot of good years left in him.?
Click to expand...

Mirtle nailed it good at the time: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/leafs-beat/the-problem-with-david-clarksons-new-contract/article13067766/
Click to expand...

It's not like the numbers Mirtle came up with were a surprise.  It's mind-boggling why GMs keep making deals like this.  Could it be that, as a group, they just aren't as smart as we think they are?
Click to expand...

I think some overvalue certain attributes such as, like in Clarkson's case, "heart" (however they want to define that) and "character" and sometimes at the expense of skill.
 
bustaheims said:
draglikepull: I tried pulling a list of historical comparables for David Clarkson. #1's hilarious as a Leafs fan. http://t.co/F50TgvqYFT

#1 is pretty funny.
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That's hilarious and also sad, in that I wish that Clarkson were even as "good" as JH.
 
Hockeyprospectus.com has a stat called GVT, which attempts to act like baseball's "WAR" for hockey to attempt to judge a player's individual worth to the team compared to a fringe/replacement level NHLer.

Now this isn't the be all end all at all, and certainly up for debate how much you value it, but it's another method to attempt to quantify a player's impact.  Here's a more in depth explanation of it.

Goals Versus Threshold. Developed by Tom Awad of Hockey Prospectus, GVT measures a player's worth in comparison to a typical fringe NHL player. GVT has two major advantages over most metrics: it's measured in goals, which are easily equated to wins, and it is capable of comparing players across multiple positions and multiple eras
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Here's this season's list as of March 17: http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/puck/sortable/

Corey Pronman made a couple comments about Clarkson and his GVT:

@coreypronman

The last GVT update had Clarkson around neg 1.8. The standard FA paid 5.25MM in their first year tends to produce about 10-11 GVT.
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@coreypronman 

Clarkson still could make up some lost ground, but TOR may have about ~10 goals in lost value this season due to the cap space used on DC.
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Clarkson's not just bad...he's astronomically bad.  Taking players aged 28-36 (the age span of Clarkson's deal) I took a quick look at players who have played for the Leafs in the post-Ballard era (1990-2014).

I used Clarkson's current GP of 48 as a cutoff to keep things equal but didn't limit minutes played.  124 players qualified as playing for the Leafs over this period.

Clarkson's 0.08 Goals/Game sits at 113th out of 124.
Clarkson's 0.13 Assists/Game sits at 112th out of 124.
Clarkson's 0.21 Points/Game sits at 113th out of 124.
Clarkson's offensive point shares sits at -0.5 114th/124.
Clarkson's defensive point shares sits at 0.4 119th/124.

http://www.hockey-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&year_min=1991&year_max=2014&season_start=1&season_end=-1&age_min=28&age_max=36&birth_country=&franch_id=TOR&is_active=&is_hof=&pos=F&handed=&c1stat=&c1comp=gt&c1val=&c2stat=games_played&c2comp=gt&c2val=48&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=lt&c4val=&order_by=ops&order_by_asc=&offset=100

Nothing about those numbers suggests that he's going to do anything meaningful moving forward.  His peers are Clarke Wilm and Jamaal Mayers.
 
sickbeast said:
Just bury him in the minors or use a compliance buyout.
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The Leafs don't have a compliance buyout available, nor would Clarkson be eligible for one. Contracts signed after the lockout can not be bought out with compliance buy outs.
 
bustaheims said:
Deebo said:
LTIR is our only hope
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Unless the Oilers are still interested in him and are willing to take him on at full price if they don't have to give anything up.
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Currently, it would be a minor miracle if we could give him away and
only retain, say, 1.5 million per year.
 
Wilm killed penalties. Just in case anyone forgot.

I'd say he's about like Mayers except for the massive excess dough.
 
Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate said:
I'd say he's about like Mayers except for the massive excess dough.
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Mayers is actually a pretty great comparison, as I hated him too. You could just tell that he wasn't interested at all in playing here. That's obviously not true for Clarkson, but the on-ice results are pretty similar.
 
dappleganger said:
Potvin29 said:
@coreypronman 

Clarkson still could make up some lost ground, but TOR may have about ~10 goals in lost value this season due to the cap space used on DC.
Click to expand...
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So Clarkson needs to score an additional 10 goals next year. That's doable.
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Doable?  I doubt it.  This Clarkson guy has had trouble just getting his first goal, nevermind ten. 

Never been more disappointed in a Leaf this year than in # 71.  Worst signing so far.

 
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