...Nonis should?ve been highly skeptical that Clarkson could repeat even that pedestrian performance for at least three reasons.
First, in 2011-12 Clarkson?s shooting percentage was 13.2 per cent and his ?true? shooting percentage (discussed in our March 20 column) was 8.5 per cent, both of which were much higher than his lifetime averages of 9.3 per cent and 5.9 per cent respectively. It?s exceptionally rare for a player who has been in the league for four years to significantly increase his shooting percentage on a sustained basis. At his historic averages, in 2011-12 Clarkson would have scored only 21 goals, not 30.
Second, Clarkson just turned 30, which is right around the time forwards? production starts dropping precipitously. According to advanced stats guru Eric Tulsky, production can be expected to drop to 80 per cent of a player?s peak at age 31, 70 per cent at age 32-33, and 60 per cent by age 35. So by the second year of the contract the Leafs should have expected Clarkson to generate around 30 points. By year six of the monstrous contract, it?d be closer to 22 points.
Third, Clarkson scored a boatload of his points in 2011-12 on the power play. This year he?s played just 20 per cent of Toronto?s power-play minutes. This obviously would further impact his productivity.