Decisions, decisions

[CarltonTheBear]

Bozak is an interesting case. I keep going back and forth on him. Earlier I made the case that his season had moved his contract from one of those anchors you'd move in a second if you could to maybe actually being a pretty good value. He's produced at roughly a 50 pts/82 pace for five straight years now and this year proved that wasn't just a function of being joined at the hip. A 50 point center who's not awful defensively and can win face-offs shouldn't just be a salary dump, right? He should have some real value. Not 1st round pick value but 2nd at least.

But the more and more I think about it the harder time I have seeing him move. Bozak's production can't be entirely linked to Kessel any more but it probably can be linked to getting a ton of PP time. He's also got a bit of an injury history at this point. Is there a team out there who's really going to look at Bozak as a desirable option as a top 2 C? Is there a team who won't think they have better ways of spending 4.2 million?

I don't know, I think that's going to be a tough sell without taking back some bad money. 

My plan for Bozak is basically package him with the Pittsburgh pick and see if there's any teams at all in the teens that would move down for it. Maybe there won't be any takers, but teams like Carolina (drafting 13th) and Detroit (16th) seem to have a hole at centre with their losses of Staal and Datsyuk. Maybe they bite.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Forgot Carolina has LA's pick too, looks like it'll be 21st. If getting into the teens doesn't work value-wise (I have no idea), I'd probably settle for that too.

Carolina's always liked ex-Leafs, Hunwick would be a good Liles-replacement for them. Let's send all our junk there.

 

[Kin]

My plan for Bozak is basically package him with the Pittsburgh pick and see if there's any teams at all in the teens that would move down for it. Maybe there won't be any takers, but teams like Carolina (drafting 13th) and Detroit (16th) seem to have a hole at centre with their losses of Staal and Datsyuk. Maybe they bite.

See, where I got to where I am on Bozak's value is I tried putting myself in the shoes of a team like that. Say you and me are running the Red Wings or Hurricanes. You're the GM, I'm the VP of Hockey Operations or somesuch. What case are you making to me for trading Bozak? What problem does he solve over and above taking the money you'd be paying him and overpaying for the best 3rd line-ish C on the market without giving up a trade asset?

I'm not saying it couldn't happen, I'm just saying I can't make that case.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

See, where I got to where I am on Bozak's value is I tried putting myself in the shoes of a team like that. Say you and me are running the Red Wings or Hurricanes. You're the GM, I'm the VP of Hockey Operations or somesuch. What case are you making to me for trading Bozak? What problem does he solve over and above taking the money you'd be paying him and overpaying for the best 3rd line-ish C on the market without giving up a trade asset?

I'm not saying it couldn't happen, I'm just saying I can't make that case.

Like I said, both of those teams in particular have pretty big holes at 2C. Both teams seem to be in a playoff/compete mode, so it's a hole they'll have to fill. The UFA market actually seems to help the Leafs in this case because there's not actually lot of 2Cs there. You have your 1Cs (or at least guys who will be paid like one) in Staal, Backes, and of course Stamkos. But after that the remaining centres are Gaustad, Gordon, B. Richards, Nielsen, Spaling, Helm, Horcoff, Fiddler, Moore. All bottom-6 options.

So if a team like Carolina or Detroit strikes out with the big-3, and I'm not sure Carolina can open their wallet for those guys and Datysuk's contract will cause serious headaches for Detroit this summer, then they'll have to look at trade options. And as you said, Bozak's been a consistent 50-point-ish player who wins faceoffs. His scoring might come from powerplay opportunities but he'll get those on other teams too if they're using him as a 2C. I think that if Bozak was a UFA right now I think he would probably get a 2-year deal worth $4.2mil from some team. The term remaining there seems fairly appealing.

Is dropping down 10-ish spots in the draft (I'll admit that CAR's early pick seems unlikely in this situation, but moving their LA pick seems possible) worth acquiring an average 2C with friendly term? They're not going to find a Tyler Bozak for free on July 1st, and I'm not sure how many other teams are looking to just ditch a 2nd line centre like this. A trade would require the team to either not be in love with a prospect in that range and/or think a prospect that they do like would still be available by the time Pittsburgh's pick comes.

(edit That's why I think using Bozak as bait to move up, whether it's with Pittsburgh's pick or Toronto's 2nd rounder, is a better option than just trying to trade Bozak by himself for a trade pick. A team could still conceivable come away with the prospect they wanted all along and get a 2C.

Now as I write this out I notice the fairly obvious huge problem which is that the draft happens before free agency. So a team will have to think that they can't compete for Stamkos/Staal/Backes ahead of time and wants a better centre than Paul Gaustad for their secondary scoring line.

 

[Al14]

Forgot Carolina has LA's pick too, looks like it'll be 21st. If getting into the teens doesn't work value-wise (I have no idea), I'd probably settle for that too.

Carolina's always liked ex-Leafs, Hunwick would be a good Liles-replacement for them. Let's send all our junk there.

:sarcasm on:  That's a great way to market our assests!  :sarcasm off:

Hunwick can be a role player on some teams.  Does Carolina need such a role player?  :-\

 

[Kin]

So if a team like Carolina or Detroit strikes out with the big-3, and I'm not sure Carolina can open their wallet for those guys and Datysuk's contract will cause serious headaches for Detroit this summer, then they'll have to look at trade options.

Well, that or they would look internally. Lindholm and Athanasiou seem like guys who will get bigger looks in a #2 C role.

 

[Bullfrog]

My plan for Bozak is basically package him with the Pittsburgh pick and see if there's any teams at all in the teens that would move down for it. Maybe there won't be any takers, but teams like Carolina (drafting 13th) and Detroit (16th) seem to have a hole at centre with their losses of Staal and Datsyuk. Maybe they bite.

See, where I got to where I am on Bozak's value is I tried putting myself in the shoes of a team like that. Say you and me are running the Red Wings or Hurricanes. You're the GM, I'm the VP of Hockey Operations or somesuch. What case are you making to me for trading Bozak? What problem does he solve over and above taking the money you'd be paying him and overpaying for the best 3rd line-ish C on the market without giving up a trade asset?

I'm not saying it couldn't happen, I'm just saying I can't make that case.

He's a pretty solid scorer, including on the power-play and he's one of the better faceoff men in the league. I think there's some value there. You wouldn't have to give up a huge return to get him.

What you're saying certainly has merit. Is the value he brings that is better than a 3rd liner FA worth giving up an asset?

 

[Jolly good show chaps]

When does Datsyuk's contract expire?

 

[herman]

When does Datsyuk's contract expire?

At the end of 2016-17.

 

[Deebo]

He has publicly talked about not playing next season in the NHL though.

 

[herman]

He has publicly talked about not playing next season in the NHL though.

Yep. But his cap hit of $7.5M stays whether he is with the Red Wings or in Russia, active or retired, due to his age when signing the deal. They're going to have to give up assets if they want to get that cap space freed up.

 

[Jolly good show chaps]

He has publicly talked about not playing next season in the NHL though.

Yep. But his cap hit of $7.5M stays whether he is with the Red Wings or in Russia, active or retired, due to his age when signing the deal. They're going to have to give up assets if they want to get that cap space freed up.

Yeah, that's what I was getting at - could be a possible salary dump trade there for us to get Detroit's first this year plus for Bozak + and some contracts

 

[Britishbulldog]

He has publicly talked about not playing next season in the NHL though.

Yep. But his cap hit of $7.5M stays whether he is with the Red Wings or in Russia, active or retired, due to his age when signing the deal. They're going to have to give up assets if they want to get that cap space freed up.

Yeah, that's what I was getting at - could be a possible salary dump trade there for us to get Detroit's first this year plus for Bozak + and some contracts

I don't know what benefit it is to Detroit in trading the contract since as soon as he is gone he will be suspended without pay for the year.  That would mean that Detroit have 15 players signed for $58 MIL including Datsyuk giving around $16 MIL for 8 players.  Tight but not impossible.

Phoenix might be able to use the cap space.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I don't know what benefit it is to Detroit in trading the contract since as soon as he is gone he will be suspended without pay for the year.  That would mean that Detroit have 15 players signed for $58 MIL including Datsyuk giving around $16 MIL for 8 players.  Tight but not impossible.

Phoenix might be able to use the cap space.

Well Mrazek will need a raise, so that'll take up a larger than average slice of their remaining cap. And they were barely a playoff team with 66 games of Datsyuk this season. If you drop that GP to 0 and replace him with a league average player they aren't getting back in.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

How much do you think Mrazek signs for?

Does he sign a cheaper bridge deal or do the Wings try and buy some UFA years at a discount?

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

Also...that Abdelkader contract. #Clarkson

 

[cabber24]

I'm not overly concerned about a goalie yet. I expect another building year yielding another decent draft pick. Obviously at some point the goal tending needs to be addressed but at this point I don't see the immediate need to acquire a goalie. I would recommend signing a ufa to a short term contract or continuing with Bernier/Sparks this year. I would even consider Reimer for a short-term contract but I would guess the reason he was traded had something to do with his asking price so not likely.

 

[herman]

I'm not overly concerned about a goalie yet. I expect another building year yielding another decent draft pick. Obviously at some point the goal tending needs to be addressed but at this point I don't see the immediate need to acquire a goalie. I would recommend signing a ufa to a short term contract or continuing with Bernier/Sparks this year. I would even consider Reimer for a short-term contract but I would guess the reason he was traded had something to do with his asking price so not likely.

The potential expansion draft might encourage some teams to trade one of their goalies rather than leaving him exposed. For example, Marc-Andre Fleury has an NMC on this contract so the rules might force the Penguins to protect him as their only goalie option, opening the door for a Matt Murray trade (one of our potential targets with the Kessel deal). The more likely option is that they'd shop Fleury hard and take back a lesser deal so they can hang on to Murray. Either way, their hand will be forced.

In the interest of garnering higher draft picks, as well as training/forcing our team structure to suppress shots by committee, I would also favour installing the goalie last out of all the needs we have.

 

[herman]

This was a good read, even though my eyes glazed over when discussing the Cap situation numerically.

https://thebloggerstribune.com/2016/05/06/leafs-ready-to-benefit-from-sound-salary-cap-management/

We are in good cap position over the next 2-3 years, barring any epic Nonising of the UFA market, which is a possibility if we are trying to land a top-2 RHD.

 

[Kin]

In fairness, it'd be kind of hard to pull off being the worst team in the league and have a lousy cap situation.