Devils sign Timo Meier to 8-year extension

[bustaheims]

https://twitter.com/pierrevlebrun/status/1674102195959001088

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Probably the best comparison for Nylander we'll get and Willy's offensive numbers at least come out ahead:

Meier last 4 seasons:	279 GP, 109 goals, 222 points		Meier last 2 seasons:	155 GP, 75 goals, 142 points
Nylander last 4 seasons:	282 GP, 122 goals, 268 points		Nylander last 2 seasons:	163 GP, 74 goals, 167 points

Granted you could try making the argument that the difference in assists the past 2 seasons could be credited to the fact that in all situation's the two forwards Nylander's played with the most were Tavares and Matthews while for Meier it was Hertl and Couture.

 

[herman]

Probably the best comparison for Nylander we'll get and Willy's offensive numbers at least come out ahead:

Meier last 4 seasons:	279 GP, 109 goals, 222 points		Meier last 2 seasons:	155 GP, 75 goals, 142 points
Nylander last 4 seasons:	282 GP, 122 goals, 268 points		Nylander last 2 seasons:	163 GP, 74 goals, 167 points

Granted you could try making the argument that the difference in assists the past 2 seasons could be credited to the fact that in all situation's the two forwards Nylander's played with the most were Tavares and Matthews while for Meier it was Hertl and Couture.

Timo Meier was also playing Line 1 minutes
Their 5v5 and all situations G/60 are comparable (Meier slightly higher by a hair)

Meier is coming in at 10.5% of this year's cap.
An equivalent Nylander extension starting next season is basically 9.2M AAV over 8 years

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Meier is coming in at 10.5% of this year's cap.
An equivalent Nylander extension starting next season is basically 9.2M AAV over 8 years

I'm not sure how relevant this exactly is since I'm sure Meier and his camp and everyone else is well aware of how much the cap is going to jump next season and obviously took that into account in these negotiations.

So if everyone has Meier and Nylander on roughly the same level I'm not sure Willie can justify an automatic increase because his deal would be starting 1 year later. Maybe just a bump to $8.88mil I guess. Or $8,888,888 if he really wants to push it.

 

[Kin]

Probably the best comparison for Nylander we'll get and Willy's offensive numbers at least come out ahead:

Meier last 4 seasons:	279 GP, 109 goals, 222 points		Meier last 2 seasons:	155 GP, 75 goals, 142 points
Nylander last 4 seasons:	282 GP, 122 goals, 268 points		Nylander last 2 seasons:	163 GP, 74 goals, 167 points

Granted you could try making the argument that the difference in assists the past 2 seasons could be credited to the fact that in all situation's the two forwards Nylander's played with the most were Tavares and Matthews while for Meier it was Hertl and Couture.

I think, at the very least, that this contract would at least mute the idea that Nylander should be above 9 by a significant amount, if at all.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

5-on-5 offence from the past 2 seasons:

Meier 155 GP, 42 goals (1.07 G/60), 47 assists, 89 points (2.37 P/60)
Nylander 163 GP, 40 goals (1.07 G/60), 49 assists, 89 points (2.27 P/60)

So virtually identical 5-on-5 production, almost too identical hah. Meier leads the entire league in 5-on-5 shots over the past 2 seasons (edging out Matthews by 2 shots in 8 more games), Nylander is 7th. I think you can make the argument that they're basically the same player.

PP offence from the past 2 seasons:

Meier 155 GP, 29 goals (4.03 G/60), 12 assists, 41 points (5.70 P/60)
Nylander 163 GP, 22 goals (2.45 G/60), 37 assists, 59 points (6.58 P/60)

Nylander has Meier crushed in powerplay assists. Worth noting Willy had Matthews (29 PP goals, 13th in league) and Tavares (28 PP goals, 15th in league) to pass to while in San Jose the next highest PP goal scorers were Hertl (12 PP goals, 88th in league) and Couture (10 PP goals, 101 in league).

 

[Guru Tugginmypuddah]

I think they're trolling Willy with the $8.8 number. 

 

[Bill33]

I think, at the very least, that this contract would at least mute the idea that Nylander should be above 9 by a significant amount, if at all.

Agreed. Along with the Dubois contract, there's lots of ammo to pull Nylander and his agent back to relative earth, meaning <9M. I'd be surprised though, if it actually gets done.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

5-on-5 offence from the past 2 seasons:

Meier 155 GP, 42 goals (1.07 G/60), 47 assists, 89 points (2.37 P/60)
Nylander 163 GP, 40 goals (1.07 G/60), 49 assists, 89 points (2.27 P/60)

So virtually identical 5-on-5 production, almost too identical hah. Meier leads the entire league in 5-on-5 shots over the past 2 seasons (edging out Matthews by 2 shots in 8 more games), Nylander is 7th. I think you can make the argument that they're basically the same player.

PP offence from the past 2 seasons:

Meier 155 GP, 29 goals (4.03 G/60), 12 assists, 41 points (5.70 P/60)
Nylander 163 GP, 22 goals (2.45 G/60), 37 assists, 59 points (6.58 P/60)

Nylander has Meier crushed in powerplay assists. Worth noting Willy had Matthews (29 PP goals, 13th in league) and Tavares (28 PP goals, 15th in league) to pass to while in San Jose the next highest PP goal scorers were Hertl (12 PP goals, 88th in league) and Couture (10 PP goals, 101 in league).

Lastly, for whatever it's worth Meier's defensive metrics are better than Nylanders, he's bigger (220 lbs vs. 205 lbs), and much more physical (6.34 hits per 60 vs. 0.73 over the past 2 seasons).

Add that all in with the points I've made about his offensive stats and I've talked myself into thinking the difference in their contracts should be minimal, if anything at all. The question then becomes: if Nylander wants to push his AAV past what Meier got what is the appropriate walk away point for the Leafs?

 

[Guru Tugginmypuddah]

5-on-5 offence from the past 2 seasons:

Meier 155 GP, 42 goals (1.07 G/60), 47 assists, 89 points (2.37 P/60)
Nylander 163 GP, 40 goals (1.07 G/60), 49 assists, 89 points (2.27 P/60)

So virtually identical 5-on-5 production, almost too identical hah. Meier leads the entire league in 5-on-5 shots over the past 2 seasons (edging out Matthews by 2 shots in 8 more games), Nylander is 7th. I think you can make the argument that they're basically the same player.

PP offence from the past 2 seasons:

Meier 155 GP, 29 goals (4.03 G/60), 12 assists, 41 points (5.70 P/60)
Nylander 163 GP, 22 goals (2.45 G/60), 37 assists, 59 points (6.58 P/60)

Nylander has Meier crushed in powerplay assists. Worth noting Willy had Matthews (29 PP goals, 13th in league) and Tavares (28 PP goals, 15th in league) to pass to while in San Jose the next highest PP goal scorers were Hertl (12 PP goals, 88th in league) and Couture (10 PP goals, 101 in league).

Lastly, for whatever it's worth Meier's defensive metrics are better than Nylanders, he's bigger (220 lbs vs. 205 lbs), and much more physical (6.34 hits per 60 vs. 0.73 over the past 2 seasons).

Add that all in with the points I've made about his offensive stats and I've talked myself into thinking the difference in their contracts should be minimal, if anything at all. The question then becomes: if Nylander wants to push his AAV past what Meier got what is the appropriate walk away point for the Leafs?

Well the rumored ask from Nylander is $9m.  I think he's been a pretty good soldier, and was probably a little underpaid on his last contract.  I think the walk away number would be anything over $10m.

 

[Kin]

Obviously this is the time of year to take rumours with a grain of salt but if what's being reported is true and that the gap here is the Leafs at 8 and Nylander's camp at 9 then while I think it's reasonable to go hard and try to get the most team-friendly deal he can I think the Dubois and Meier deals make an offer of 8 pretty low almost to the extent of being insulting-ish?

Like given these last two deals 9 would be pretty reasonable so I don't know if this would be the negotiations I would take down to the wire. See if you can get 8.75 or the 8.8 people are saying but it almost feels like just getting the deal done early would almost outweigh the benefits of that 250k or so.

 

[L K]

Obviously this is the time of year to take rumours with a grain of salt but if what's being reported is true and that the gap here is the Leafs at 8 and Nylander's camp at 9 then while I think it's reasonable to go hard and try to get the most team-friendly deal he can I think the Dubois and Meier deals make an offer of 8 pretty low almost to the extent of being insulting-ish?

Like given these last two deals 9 would be pretty reasonable so I don't know if this would be the negotiations I would take down to the wire. See if you can get 8.75 or the 8.8 people are saying but it almost feels like just getting the deal done early would almost outweigh the benefits of that 250k or so.

Contract negotiation rumours always need to be taken with a grain of salt but weren't the rumours that the Leafs came up to 6.9 with Nylander rather than him taking a considerably lower deal at the last minute?

 

[herman]

I think it lands at 9.2M x 8 and it gets done this week. Obviously wouldn't mind at all if it was less, as long as it gets done.

 

[Joe S.]

I think, at the very least, that this contract would at least mute the idea that Nylander should be above 9 by a significant amount, if at all.

Agreed. Along with the Dubois contract, there's lots of ammo to pull Nylander and his agent back to relative earth, meaning <9M. I'd be surprised though, if it actually gets done.

How is he comparable to nylander?