Florida interested in Kessel
- Thread starter rdowdall
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Heroic Shrimp
Active member
BrownRolo said:
For present contract status, you're really flattering Ryan and shortchanging Kessel by showing their career stats. If you look at the last 4 years of production in particular between the two, it's not even close.
Heroic Shrimp
Active member
For kicks, 2011-14:
P. Kessel 212 94 120 214
B. Ryan 198 65 70 135
O. Jokinen 209 48 70 118
P. Kessel 212 94 120 214
B. Ryan 198 65 70 135
O. Jokinen 209 48 70 118
BrownRolo
New member
Heroic Shrimp said:
Yeah, but then you are leaving out Ryan's most and third most productive seasons, plus his 4th most productive season. I think most hockey fans, except for homers like Madferret, would take Kessel over Ryan. So to say Kessel's contract is not in-line with the market is crazy and if he thinks Kessel is overpaid he must really think Ryan is.
BrownRolo
New member
Madferret said:
Sharp is almost 6 years older than Kessel. He signed a 5 year deal at $5,900,000 per season. Definitely took a paycut to stay with the Blackhawks. Plus he is a completely different type of player. Ryan is a perfect comparison. You are saying Kessel's contract is a negative when trying to trade him. We are saying he is being paid at market value.
Kin
Active member
BrownRolo said:
One of the most important things about this comparison though is that one of the selling points that would have to be intriguing to a team trading for Kessel is trying to look at Kessel's numbers without really ever having a real #1 centre or ever being anything but the team's primary scoring threat and trying to work out how his production might improve if he were ever in a situation where that wasn't the case. Ryan's goal scoring numbers on teams where he was the 4th best offensive player are markedly different from his goal scoring numbers where he's expected to carry a majority of the load.
Bobby Ryan in Anaheim, as a full time NHLer, scored 142 goals in 355 games. That works out to .4 goals a game or 33 goals per 82 games. With Ottawa he's got 37 goals in 121 games, or .305 gpg and 25 per 82. So being the main scoring threat has decreased Ryan's goal scoring output by about a third.
Kessel, on the Leafs, has scored 178 goals in 422 NHL games, or .42 a game or 35 per 82 games. If the effect of going to a team where he could play with a legit #1 center is the same as the opposite of what happened Ryan(and there's a case to be made that it could be greater as Kessel has been a better goal scorer surrounded by nobody than Ryan was with Selanne, Getzlaf and Perry) then that would work out to 45+ goals a year.
Now, clearly, that's far from scientific but I think it highlights a key point about comparing Ryan and Kessel.To justify Ryan's contract to themselves, Ottawa would have had to take Ryan's numbers in Anaheim to heart, sure, but it's a little misleading to compare that on a one to one basis with what Kessel's done here. With Kessel, the Leafs are going to pitch what else he might be able to do if he's no longer the focal point of another team's defense. With Ryan the difference was enough to mask what appears to be a fairly ordinary goal scorer as a really good one. Kessel's already a really good one. One of the best, as people keep saying.
So I think that's what HS meant. If we're trying to really get a handle on how much Kessel is better than Ryan then using Ryan's Anaheim numbers kind of distorts the picture.
Heroic Shrimp
Active member
Nik the Trik said:
Yes, that's generally what I was pointing to. Kessel is routinely the Leafs' top scorer by a significant margin. This is Ryan's first season in which he is on pace to be anything better than his team's 3rd top scorer. By all measures, if one of them is overpaid, it sure isn't Kessel.
Obviously, the only reason Ryan is in this discussion is because of Ottawa/Madferret and because of his massive and comparable contract, not comparable talent. I think if there's a fairer talent comparable to Kessel, it's Kane. If somebody feels like doing the homework, compare Kane's numbers to Kessel's and then look at their contracts. By that measure as well, Kessel's paycheque isn't even remotely out of line.
GhostofPotvin29
New member
Joe S. said:
When Ryan was signed it was, and I quote, a "great day for Sens fans."
Heroic Shrimp
Active member
Potvin29 said:
In fairness, I imagine every day a decent player chooses not to leave is a great day.
GhostofPotvin29
New member
Heroic Shrimp said:
This is true.
Madferret said:
But the Sens did trade for Ryan, giving up a premium package and with the knowledge that a long term deal at 7M+ is what it was going to take to keep him. Exactly what you said teams wouldn't be willing to do for a non-franchise player. So I think Ryan is relevant to this discussion.
hockeyfan1
New member
It's a bit preposterous to think that Florida would trade their young core -- a Bjugstad, Huberdeau, or even Gudbranson for that matter.
Why would they want to do that in the first place?
The only team I can see Kessel go to, are the New York Rangers, for the reason that they can afford him (both contract-wise and also player-wise by not losing too much in return), and also because he would an excellent addition to their already productive offence.
Why would they want to do that in the first place?
The only team I can see Kessel go to, are the New York Rangers, for the reason that they can afford him (both contract-wise and also player-wise by not losing too much in return), and also because he would an excellent addition to their already productive offence.
GhostofPotvin29
New member
Deebo said:
Not to mention - look what Evander Kane just got in the wake of him being supposedly terrible in the room and having exactly one 20+ goal season and significant injury concerns. As well as a $5.25 M cap hit which will be up when he's turning 27.
Madferret said:
It has nothing to do with who is willing to trade who. It has more to do with your statement that Kessel's contract is unmoveable, yet a team in the same province elected to sign a very similar player to a very similar contract. Also happens to be the team that you follow. At the very least, it proves that more than one GM thinks that players like Ryan and Kessel are worth that amount of money.