Game 8 - Leafs @ Flyers - Monday Oct 24th 2011 - 19:00 EST - 4-2 Loss

[Erndog]

There is a difference between "poor play" and "average play".  Reimer has been giving them average play.  Gus has been giving them poor play.

I'd disagree. I'd say Gus has been giving them average play for a back-up. Reimer has been giving them poor play for a #1.

Sure it's a small sample size for both and we're 3 weeks into the season so there is lots of time for things to go one way or another but in this small sample, Reimer has been better than Gustavsson.

Reimer's the starter. He has to be better than his back-up. It's not an accomplishment and it doesn't vault him into "average" status. Reimer's given up a lot of goals to some bad, bad teams. Gus has given up a lot of goals to good teams. 

He was better last night.  I'm not pinning last night on his shoulders by any means.

You're saying he didn't play well last night by virtue of being under .900 as a save percentage. 

I'm using his play as a whole (going back to last season) to dissect him critically and it's in my opinion (and plenty of others) that he hasn't been very good.

You're not just going back to last year, you're going back to last season, pre-heart condition. I don't think that has much of a bearing on what we've seen the last three games.

You're not critically dissecting his play against the Capitals on december 6th of last year. You're just saying he played poorly because his save percentage was under .900.

Nik, I'm saying he's played poorly by virtue of watching most of his games (and Reimers... and Belfours.... and Josephs.... and Raycrofts.... and Toskala) and continously seeing him let in poor goals.  Stoppable shots.  He looses his net more than any goalie I've seen.  He allows those long wristers in from bad angles just as much as Raycroft and Toskala.

Look, I don't know what else I can say to you.  You're not going to convince me he's been good. I obviously won't convince you he's been bad, or needs to be better. 

We'll agree to disagree. 

 

[Kin]

Nik, I'm saying he's played poorly by virtue of watching most of his games (and Reimers... and Belfours.... and Josephs.... and Raycrofts.... and Toskala) and continously seeing him let in poor goals.  Stoppable shots.

The same is true of Reimer this year.

He looses his net more than any goalie I've seen.  He allows those long wristers in from bad angles just as much as Raycroft and Toskala.

What goals that he's let in recently qualify as a long wrister from a bad angle?

Look, I don't know what else I can say to you.  You're not going to convince me he's been good. I obviously won't convince you he's been bad, or needs to be better. 

See, this is the kind of weak strawman I wouldn't usually associate with you. Have I said "Gus has been good" or anything of the sort? Have I said repeatedly that he needs to get better?

The answers there are no and yes. What I have is that said that some of the criticisms of him are unfair. That people quick to seek a scapegoat are criticizing him for goals that they aren't criticizing Reimer for. I've said people are assigning him too much blame for their losses.

I understand wanting to break this down to me saying he's been good and you saying he's been bad because that breaks easy for you. What it doesn't do, however, is bear the slightest resemblance to the actual conversation.

 

[Erndog]

I don't know what actual conversation we are now having?

This all stems from me saying that in his last 17 games he has posted a .900 SV% only twice.  I know you hate numbers like this (but manage to live by them in our baseball discussuions for some reason?) all I said was that he needs to be better.

Yes, SV% is not a perfect measure (there is no perfect statistical measure) but again, all I'm saying is he needs to be better.  That's it.

 

[Kin]

This all stems from me saying that in his last 17 games he has posted a .900 SV% only twice.  I know you hate numbers like this (but manage to live by them in our baseball discussuions for some reason?) all I said was that he needs to be better.

I don't think putting more stock in baseball metrics than hockey metrics is much of a mystery that needs explaining. Baseball is a series of one on one confrontations. Hockey isn't. Last night we saw the perfect example of how sketchy sv% is when two of the Flyers goals were scored on breakaways. It's possible to have a sub .900 save percentage and play well. We saw it last night. 

Yes, SV% is not a perfect measure (there is no perfect statistical measure) but again, all I'm saying is he needs to be better.  That's it.

Like I've said elsewhere, singling him out after last night is not reasonable.

 

[Tigger]

Damien Cox strikes again. I'm pretty sure I watched most of those games and I certainly never came away thinking Goose is the real problem on balance. He needs to improve, sure, so do/did the Leafs in general.

Like some have said it's easy to forget how well he played, a quick glance at the motm stats can give a clue but there were many times where he was the only bright spot in a bad loss.

I think he could have used more development time and frankly the Leafs could find ways to make him more successful but Wilson might get in the way of that ( might not too ).

If they would only rally around him like they did for Schwab, oi! ...though it was nice to see Komi looking out for him.

 

[Tigger]

Right. Your Majesty is like a dose of clap...

 

[bustaheims]

Talking about their chances:
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html

Leafs lose to Philly.

From that loss, Leafs chances of making the playoffs go UP 6% to 74%, Philly's go down nearly 8% to 61% ... related to Pronger ...??....

Rightfully so if that's the case because I don't think Philly is nearly as special without Pronger.

Doubt it has anything to do with Pronger - the way that site works is purely with mathematical probability, as in, if the team finishes with this record, this is the percentage chance they have of making the playoffs. My guess that's a coding issue rather than what they actually intend to show.

 

[rdowdall]

Talking about their chances:
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html

Leafs lose to Philly.

From that loss, Leafs chances of making the playoffs go UP 6% to 74%, Philly's go down nearly 8% to 61% ... related to Pronger ...??....

Rightfully so if that's the case because I don't think Philly is nearly as special without Pronger.

Doubt it has anything to do with Pronger - the way that site works is purely with mathematical probability, as in, if the team finishes with this record, this is the percentage chance they have of making the playoffs. My guess that's a coding issue rather than what they actually intend to show.

THERE ARE NO CODING ISSUES.

 

[Chev-boyar-sky]

Nik, I'm saying he's played poorly by virtue of watching most of his games (and Reimers... and Belfours.... and Josephs.... and Raycrofts.... and Toskala) and continously seeing him let in poor goals.  Stoppable shots.

The same is true of Reimer this year.

He looses his net more than any goalie I've seen.  He allows those long wristers in from bad angles just as much as Raycroft and Toskala.

What goals that he's let in recently qualify as a long wrister from a bad angle?

Look, I don't know what else I can say to you.  You're not going to convince me he's been good. I obviously won't convince you he's been bad, or needs to be better. 

See, this is the kind of weak strawman I wouldn't usually associate with you. Have I said "Gus has been good" or anything of the sort? Have I said repeatedly that he needs to get better?

The answers there are no and yes. What I have is that said that some of the criticisms of him are unfair. That people quick to seek a scapegoat are criticizing him for goals that they aren't criticizing Reimer for. I've said people are assigning him too much blame for their losses.

I understand wanting to break this down to me saying he's been good and you saying he's been bad because that breaks easy for you. What it doesn't do, however, is bear the slightest resemblance to the actual conversation.

The 4th goal in the Montreal game was a wrister from a angle that wasn't particularly great. The 2nd and 3rd goals were also pretty weak.

The 1st and 5th (or 4th) goal of the Boston game were also not great goals.

Gus played great last night, but his team couldn't muster enough support to give Gus a chance at a W.

I don't think anybody is saying Reimer is flawless, but he's gotten results over his 40+ games in the NHL. Gus hasn't really done that, and people are waiting to see the potential (if it's there) realized. If he can continue to play as he did last night, he should end up with some W's.

 

[Tigger]

Gus played great last night, but his team couldn't muster enough support to give Gus a chance at a W.

Reimer has played better and earned his spot but I think this is a great way of showing a big the difference between the success of the two, the Leafs have played way better in front of Reimer than they did for the most part in front of Jonas.

Some of that could be attributed to the teams confidence in the goalie, or maybe their respect for him, some just in that the team seemed to improve in general but still, when I think of teams rallying around a goalie I certainly don't think of the Leafs in front of Goose.

 

[Madferret]

To be fair to the Monster I think you guys are being a bit on the unrealistic side with him. He's a back-up goalie and I think the chances that he's viewed like that by other GM's are high.
Further to his defense - most teams play worse in front of their back-ups, this really isn't a problem exclusive to the Leafs. Check out the combined record of backups this year. <29W - 34L>

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

The 4th goal in the Montreal game was a wrister from a angle that wasn't particularly great. The 2nd and 3rd goals were also pretty weak.

But that's improperly describing it.  Sure, it was a wrister - a wrister that was through some traffic and which Moen tipped in.  Hardly the same as just letting in a long wrister straight through.

 

[princedpw]

most teams play worse in front of their back-ups, this really isn't a problem exclusive to the Leafs. Check out the combined record of backups this year. <29W - 34L>

Couldn't the backup won-loss record be due to the fact that backups are worse than the starters rather than the rest of the team playing any differently?

 

[Madferret]

most teams play worse in front of their back-ups, this really isn't a problem exclusive to the Leafs. Check out the combined record of backups this year. <29W - 34L>

Couldn't the backup won-loss record be due to the fact that backups are worse than the starters rather than the rest of the team playing any differently?

You said it!

 

[The Red Polar Bear]

most teams play worse in front of their back-ups, this really isn't a problem exclusive to the Leafs. Check out the combined record of backups this year. <29W - 34L>

Couldn't the backup won-loss record be due to the fact that backups are worse than the starters rather than the rest of the team playing any differently?

That's part of it, but you also have to consider quality of opposition - barring injury, teams generally use their backups when playing weaker opponents (Gus' start vs boston obviously being an exception).