Goaltending conundrum

[bustaheims]

It's also a season where he doesn't have to play behind the Leafs' defensive systems, which have made a whole lot of goalies look pretty bad in recent years.

There's a reason why the goalies that played behind that system that are left in the league are all back up goalies and why many of them are no longer in the NHL at all, and that reason is not the Leafs' defence.

 

[Bender]

It's also a season where he doesn't have to play behind the Leafs' defensive systems, which have made a whole lot of goalies look pretty bad in recent years.

There's a reason why the goalies that played behind that system that are left in the league are all back up goalies and why many of them are no longer in the NHL at all, and that reason is not the Leafs' defence.

That's not to say there aren't issues, but take every ounce of responsibility off the goaltender for their numbers, well, that's just kind of nutty. Just viewing the disparity between Reimer and everything we've had until he came along is comical.

 

[bustaheims]

That's not to say there aren't issues, but take every ounce of responsibility off the goaltender for their numbers, well, that's just kind of nutty. Just viewing the disparity between Reimer and everything we've had until he came along is comical.

Exactly. Clearly, the Leafs defence hasn't been perfect (or anywhere near) in recent years, but, man, have there been some truly awful goaltending performances behind them.

 

[Kin]

That's not to say there aren't issues, but take every ounce of responsibility off the goaltender for their numbers, well, that's just kind of nutty. Just viewing the disparity between Reimer and everything we've had until he came along is comical.

I agree that no defensive system is bad enough to completely let a goalie off the hook for his play entirely and I also agree that most of the goalies we've had of late have been bad but I think you may be underestimating the effect a really good defense can have on a goalie's numbers. Look at the history, just as an example, of Martin Brodeur's backups or what's gone on in Nashville.

 

[x.jr.benchwarmer]

With last night's game against the Capitals, it seemed that the Leafs had a chance to get a win, but let it slip away, because of the penalties, goaltending, etc. etc.

Reimer was so good last year, but it just seems he is just a little off, especially with high shots, and screen shots from the point, and quick puck movement from the side.  In fact, his numbers, albeit from a statistically small sample are among the worst in the NHL:

.896 save percentage
2.96 GAA

It seems that Gus should get the start for the next few games, assuming he has been playing as reasonably well as he has recently.

The Leafs cannot afford to put up with bad goaltending, IMHO, like they have since 2005 or so.  They are currently tied for 26th overall in goals against, after 29 games.  And, again notwithstanding the relatively small sample size, the numbers this year aren't much different over the past 7 years or so with the likes of Raycroft and Toskala and Giguere, etc.

Gus, although he has played well over the past few weeks, and is getting the wins, still ranks 36th in GAA (at 3.13), and 30th in Save Percentage (.901).  (The average save percentage is .925 which is Enroth at 15th, and Giguere (shudder) is 16th at .923).

It seems that everytime the Leafs have basically competent goaltending, which hasn't happened in years aside from Reimer's terrific Jan. to March play last year, everyone gets so excited because the expectation level has been so low for the Leafs. And if the Leafs did have a goaltender who could consistently be ranked, say, in the top 10 in the NHL, how much stronger their chances would be, obviously.

Because of the absolutely terrific play by the offense, and the surprising efficiency of the Power Play, and pretty solid defence work, by and large, it seems that this has helped overshadow the goaltending 'conundrum'.  But unless Gus is playing 'well' as he has been, at least relative to Reimer, IMHO, the Leafs should be looking (perhaps quietly) at getting a very capable veteran goaltender in for the last half of the year which might augment the fine play by the rest of the team. 

It just seems that the Leafs have always stood pat when it comes to mediocre goaltending, until the year is basically written off.

 

[Kin]

Gus, although he has played well over the past few weeks, and is getting the wins, still ranks 36th in GAA (at 3.13), and 30th in Save Percentage (.901).  (The average save percentage is .925 which is Enroth at 15th, and Giguere (shudder) is 16th at .923)

How did you figure a league average sv%? Over at ESPN they have only five of 30 teams with a SV% at .925 so it seems pretty unlikely that that would be the leaguewide average.

 

[x.jr.benchwarmer]

Gus, although he has played well over the past few weeks, and is getting the wins, still ranks 36th in GAA (at 3.13), and 30th in Save Percentage (.901).  (The average save percentage is .925 which is Enroth at 15th, and Giguere (shudder) is 16th at .923)

How did you figure a league average sv%? Over at ESPN they have only five of 30 teams with a SV% at .925 so it seems pretty unlikely that that would be the leaguewide average.

15th goaltender in save percentage, given a notional 30 goaltenders starting in the NHL out of 30 teams.  Whether it is 'average' or not, clearly any goaltender in 31st place in any stat has room for improvement, IMHO.

 

[Kin]

Whether it is 'average' or not, clearly any goaltender in 31st place in any stat has room for improvement, IMHO.

I don't think anyone would argue that Gus has been perfect but if you're going to compare him to the average I think you need to know what that average is.

 

[princedpw]

Whether it is 'average' or not, clearly any goaltender in 31st place in any stat has room for improvement, IMHO.

I don't think anyone would argue that Gus has been perfect but if you're going to compare him to the average I think you need to know what that average is.

Why do you have to be such a jerk to a new person posting on the boards?  Is it your goal to drive people away? 

 

[bustaheims]

Why do you have to be such a jerk to a new person posting on the boards?  Is it your goal to drive people away?

Is he wrong? I mean, .925 isn't even the median Sv%, never mind being the average. I mean, it's not like this stuff is grade 4 math or anything . . .

Just for the record, the average Sv% for the league is actually .909.

 

[Kin]

Why do you have to be such a jerk to a new person posting on the boards?  Is it your goal to drive people away?

You're reading way more into that then what's actually there. There's nothing impolite in what I said. I asked how he figured something and then said my piece plainly and simply. If Gus is going to be compared to a league wide average than that league wide average should be the actual league-wide average. That seems pretty fair.

I mean, not that it matters, but this particular poster posted at the old board and so I didn't figure it would be that much of a culture shock to ask for clarification and then make my own statement, no different than I would any other poster. I'm sorry if it's offended your delicate sensibilities.

 

[hockeyfan1]

Why do you have to be such a jerk to a new person posting on the boards?  Is it your goal to drive people away?

Is he wrong? I mean, .925 isn't even the median Sv%, never mind being the average. I mean, it's not like this stuff is grade 4 math or anything . . .

Just for the record, the average Sv% for the league is actually .909.

If the average Sv% for the league is .909, then Gustavvson's Sv% is below average, at .901, and Reimer's right now even more so, at below .900.


x.jr.benchwarmer had a point.  He stated "whether it is average or not", and clearly, in this case, it is not. 


I can't understand why when someone errs on this board, some people cut others up sharply, figuratively-speaking.  Can we not have a normal conversation?  Does everything one says need to be 'sieved'? 

 

[Bullfrog]

Sure we can have a normal conversation.

If one had a conversation with someone who was exclaiming "hot diggety dog, these are some mighty fine apples!" while that person was chomping back on some oranges, wouldn't one mention "hey man, those might be mighty delicious, but they're actually oranges."?

Somewhat similar to what happened here. You dig?

 

[Kin]

x.jr.benchwarmer had a point.  He stated "whether it is average or not", and clearly, in this case, it is not. 

And, like I said, the idea that there's room for Gus to improve upon his current numbers is one nobody would dispute. I responded to something specific and narrow. If Gus is going to be held up to the average, we should have an idea of what the average is. Leaving aside the fact that team defensive play impacts save percentage there's just the simple reality that Gus isn't miles away from the average. The difference between Gus and the average cited in the original post is three times greater than what the actual difference is. It wasn't a fair comparison. I pointed that out simply and without rancor or insult.

If that "cuts someone up, figuratively speaking" then they have much bigger issues than what gets said to them on a message board.

 

[L K]

Why do you have to be such a jerk to a new person posting on the boards?  Is it your goal to drive people away?

Is he wrong? I mean, .925 isn't even the median Sv%, never mind being the average. I mean, it's not like this stuff is grade 4 math or anything . . .

Just for the record, the average Sv% for the league is actually .909.

If the average Sv% for the league is .909, then Gustavvson's Sv% is below average, at .901, and Reimer's right now even more so, at below .900.


x.jr.benchwarmer had a point.  He stated "whether it is average or not", and clearly, in this case, it is not. 


I can't understand why when someone errs on this board, some people cut others up sharply, figuratively-speaking.  Can we not have a normal conversation?  Does everything one says need to be 'sieved'? 

So I could say that you perhaps resemble an ape.  Technically its true because you share 98% of their genome, but really, it would be unfair to actually compare your physical appearance to that of a monkey because, well, it just wouldn't be true.    I mean here I'm only 2% off being correct, and we are talking about a 16% difference in the average.  It's not exactly a small variance, and by focusing on an arbitrary number, it casts the discussion in an incorrect light.

SV% as an average isn't .925...it's actually significantly far enough away that it should probably be corrected to actually have the right facts available when discussing just how good of a job Gustavsson has done.  He needs to work on his game, but the flip side would be that since he got trounced by Boston a while ago his SV% has been about .926 in 6-7 starts, so ever since Scriven's pseudo-stole the job away from him, he has in fact been above average, despite being significantly below average to start the year.

 

[azzurri63]

First of all guys I laugh at some of these posts harping about Reimer. The guy has been back for a week and yes has looked out of sorts but geez hasn't been downright terrible. Someone said he should have went down for a few games and I totally agree. Goaltending is about confidence when you have it you can get on a roll without it good goalies look bad and it does happen to all of them. Is Reimer our answer? Many on here believe so and I think he can be but I'm not sold on him. Half a good season doesn't sell me on anyone. I commented on Price's problems in Montreal when they were contemplating trading him and he has come back with a great season last and playing well so far this season but to tell you the truth I'm not totally convinced on him either. Goaltending I think all boils down to the team in front of you. Don't get me wrong not all are alike but you can take a good goalie and put him on a bad team and his stats are going to suffer. Don't care who they are. I always look back to the 1980-81 season. Leafs traded for Michel "Bunny" Larocque (RIP) from the Habs who was Ken Drydens backup at the time. His numbers were good with the Habs but after being traded were horrible with the Leafs and all other teams thereafter. Why? Because the teams in front of him were bad. Dryden's numbers would have been worse with the Leafs. Biggest problem I see and I have mentioned it before is our overall team defence which I feel has been awful since Wilson got here. It's not the chances we allow but the quantity of good chances. Eventually it catches up to you no matter who's between the pipes. Is it Ron'? I don't know. Players have changed and we're still doing the same things. Ron has had some good defensive teams before so where lies the problem? The team needs to simplify it's whole system and limit the number of good scoring chances. Albeit the offensive side suffers and the team will not be as exciting to watch but in the end I think we win more games. Good defensive teams always seem to be there in the end. Habs after a horrible start have closed the gap on us. They have scored 17 fewer goals than us but 17 less against. Yes Price has something to do with that but bottom line is they don't give up as many good chances as we do and that is the biggest problem I think with this team besides the PK and you know how I feel about that and we'll end it there.

 

[cw]

Biggest problem I see and I have mentioned it before is our overall team defence which I feel has been awful since Wilson got here. It's not the chances we allow but the quantity of good chances. Eventually it catches up to you no matter who's between the pipes. Is it Ron'? I don't know. Players have changed and we're still doing the same things. Ron has had some good defensive teams before so where lies the problem? The team needs to simplify it's whole system and limit the number of good scoring chances. Albeit the offensive side suffers and the team will not be as exciting to watch but in the end I think we win more games. Good defensive teams always seem to be there in the end.

I agree with a bunch of your remarks.

I quoted the above because it is a bit of a quandary with Wilson. Last year, he tried to implement defence first and this group couldn't play it - because they couldn't do it and still score.

This year, in part, I think they're doing better because they went to more of a run & gun type system which I think suits the talent that they have better. But as you point out, when they do that, they give up more quality scoring chances. Generally, I still feel it's the right way to get the most out of them.

I felt at the start of the season and still do that the weakest talent aspect on this club is defence.

Evaluating NHL goaltending these days makes my head spin.

Having said that, I recall a fairly recent Chara goal the last time Gus faced the Bruins that a number criticized Gus for (I wasn't very criticial of that goal). Since Reimer returned, I've seen a couple that seemed far more stoppable but I didn't see the same level of criticism.

Maybe one thing we can take from Gustavsson & Reimer this season is that it may take a number of NHL games before these goalies find their groove and James is still trying to find his (hopefully). I didn't think Reimer looked as good in the games before he got hurt either though.

After many personnel changes over the last few seasons, Wilson is still failing on the PK though it's shown glimpses of recent improvement. I think the team dmen he has to work with are a significant part of the problem there - none of them have proven during their careers to be really good at it over a season (aside from maybe Komisarek years ago - I'm not sure).

Generally, I think Wilson has to stay the course on his run & gun system and nibble at improving the PK and minimizing defensive gaffes. Hopefully, one of the goalies can get hot and carry them to the playoffs.

 

[riff raff]

Evaluating NHL goaltending these days makes my head spin.

Having said that, I recall a fairly recent Chara goal the last time Gus faced the Bruins that a number criticized Gus for (I wasn't very criticial of that goal). Since Reimer returned, I've seen a couple that seemed far more stoppable but I didn't see the same level of criticism.

This is something that has made my head explode. I understand that Reimer is the "golden boy" and he is getting a bit of a free pass here. But what Gus has accomplished this season has been generally discounted by a lot of people.

During pre-season there were people on this board who were criticizing Gus for saves he was making (they didn't like his style). And it wasn't limited to fans on this board. During his first game against Boston, the people calling the game micro-analyized every mistake (and there were a few) to a degree I can't recall seeing in any other situation.

Gus has given the Leafs some quality wins this season. He has beaten the Rangers, the Penguins, the Capitals. Somebody with the inclination (and time on their hands) could put together a "strength of schedule" for the teams the various Leaf goaltenders have put up wins against.

I don't know if Gus is the answer over the long haul, but I think he deserves a bit more respect than "quotation marks" around the words "playing well".

 

[rdowdall]

The criticisms levelled at Gus may have something to do with the difference in attitude between he and Reimer that people perceive.  They may remember Gus glaring at his teammates and smashing his stick, and they see Reimer always appearing to be somewhat calm.  So maybe when you have that sort of attitude and you don't get results, it leaves a bad taste in people mouths.  I find it interesting that the ascension and decline of both goalies in their first two years is somewhat similar.  Gus played in 42 games in 2009-2010 and near the end of that season, seemed to be providing the type of goaltending a playoff calibre team needed.  Last year however he faltered, and we were ready to throw him to the wolves.  He looks like he is trying to re-establish himself this year.  Reimer came in at the end of last year, and looked every bit the part of a number 1 goalie, but this year is having trouble re-establishing himself in that role.

 

[riff raff]

The criticisms levelled at Gus may have something to do with the difference in attitude between he and Reimer that people perceive.  They may remember Gus glaring at his teammates and smashing his stick, and they see Reimer always appearing to be somewhat calm.  So maybe when you have that sort of attitude and you don't get results, it leaves a bad taste in people mouths.  I find it interesting that the ascension and decline of both goalies in their first two years is somewhat similar.  Gus played in 42 games in 2009-2010 and near the end of that season, seemed to be providing the type of goaltending a playoff calibre team needed.  Last year however he faltered, and we were ready to throw him to the wolves.  He looks like he is trying to re-establish himself this year.  Reimer came in at the end of last year, and looked every bit the part of a number 1 goalie, but this year is having trouble re-establishing himself in that role.

You see, the "negative attitude" that you describe is, to me, further evidence of the bias fans have against Gus. They see that as a negative in him, whereas in someone like Belfour it is seen as a positive, as him being competitive.

In addition to which, there hasn't been anything like that from Gus this year, so why bring it up now?

If you follow any of the Leafs on twitter, you may note that they almost always go out of their way to credit him after a win. His teammates like him so that whole "glaring" thing seems like a red herring.