Goaltending conundrum

[bustaheims]

We're basically reliving history IMO. Belfour, Cujo etc. Why is it we can never develop bona fide goaltending talent?

The Leafs and half the other teams in the league. Seriously, around half of the starting goalies in the league aren't playing for the team that drafted and developed them or weren't drafted at all (and, in at least one case, came to the NHL as a finished product already).

 

[Courtnall]

Impatience, in Toronto?

Nah, couldn't be.

Impatience? How long has it been since we made the playoffs? I think it's warranted.

 

[KW Sluggo]

Which is why I don't think the price for Luongo will be as high as some people may think.  Vancouver is desperate to get rid of him, and he'll have a limited list of teams he'll accept a trade to.

I wouldn't be surprised to see him go for, say, a 2nd round pick.

I honestly don't believe that's the case at all.

That's probably true, but seriously, no comment on the last sentence? Seriously?

A 2nd rounder!!

It is a Toronto tradition to trade a first rounder (and more) for a goalie that lets in the inexplicably soft and inopportune goal that has to be moved by the other team.

I am afraid we would have to insist that Vancouver take our first round pick.

Tradition?

Here is your tradition courtesy of Steve Simmons:

NO DRAFT SHMAFT

Claude Giroux was drafted in 2006, nine picks after the Maple Leafs selected Jiri Tlusty. Giroux was part of a terrific run of draft picks made by the Philadelphia Flyers between the years of 2003 and 2007. Why do those years matter here? Because in that five-year span, the Leafs traded away all five first-round picks they had (including the two players they selected, Tlusty and Tuukka Rask) without anything to show for it in between. They also traded away three of their five second-round picks, ending up with one player of semi-consequence, Nikolai Kulemin for the 10 prized draft selections over five years. This is significant now because the players chosen in those years are becoming important or have become important NHL players. In that time, the Flyers added Giroux, one of the five best forwards in the game, along with Mike Richards, Jeff Carter, James VanRiemsdyk and Steve Downie, and that?s just with first round choices. The current Maple Leafs administration, which traded picks away for Phil Kessel, is responsible for what?s happened post 2008. But they are also paying the price for those who came before them.

 

[Courtnall]

All I have to say about this conundrum is that everyone Has a lot of confidence that Reimer will be a legit starter. Myself I'm not so sure. I'm not saying loungo is the man to do it, but I wouldn't shy away from the Thought. I'd rather take Thomas if he's available or like it was said kiprusoff. Wasn't eddy at a similar age to roberto when we added him? Sure would be nice to have a legit goalie for once.

 

[moon111]

Which is why I don't think the price for Luongo will be as high as some people may think.  Vancouver is desperate to get rid of him, and he'll have a limited list of teams he'll accept a trade to.

I wouldn't be surprised to see him go for, say, a 2nd round pick.

I honestly don't believe that's the case at all.

That's probably true, but seriously, no comment on the last sentence? Seriously?

A 2nd rounder!!

It is a Toronto tradition to trade a first rounder (and more) for a goalie that lets in the inexplicably soft and inopportune goal that has to be moved by the other team.

I am afraid we would have to insist that Vancouver take our first round pick.

Tradition?

Here is your tradition courtesy of Steve Simmons:

NO DRAFT SHMAFT

Claude Giroux was drafted in 2006, nine picks after the Maple Leafs selected Jiri Tlusty. Giroux was part of a terrific run of draft picks made by the Philadelphia Flyers between the years of 2003 and 2007. Why do those years matter here? Because in that five-year span, the Leafs traded away all five first-round picks they had (including the two players they selected, Tlusty and Tuukka Rask) without anything to show for it in between. They also traded away three of their five second-round picks, ending up with one player of semi-consequence, Nikolai Kulemin for the 10 prized draft selections over five years. This is significant now because the players chosen in those years are becoming important or have become important NHL players. In that time, the Flyers added Giroux, one of the five best forwards in the game, along with Mike Richards, Jeff Carter, James VanRiemsdyk and Steve Downie, and that?s just with first round choices. The current Maple Leafs administration, which traded picks away for Phil Kessel, is responsible for what?s happened post 2008. But they are also paying the price for those who came before them.

What irrates me about articles like this, they don't seem to mention that the Leafs were pretty good, the picks were later 1st rounds many of the times.  And they don't seem to mention some players picked were passed upon by more then just the Leafs.  Some picks just don't turn out the way some hope.  I sure didn't miss the Leafs drafting Kris Chucko with their 1st.  I think Brian Leetch was a much better option at the time.  And had the NHL not locked out, the Leafs were ready for business...and perhaps a healthy Cup run.

 

[princedpw]

Which is why I don't think the price for Luongo will be as high as some people may think.  Vancouver is desperate to get rid of him, and he'll have a limited list of teams he'll accept a trade to.

I wouldn't be surprised to see him go for, say, a 2nd round pick.

I honestly don't believe that's the case at all.

That's probably true, but seriously, no comment on the last sentence? Seriously?

A 2nd rounder!!

It is a Toronto tradition to trade a first rounder (and more) for a goalie that lets in the inexplicably soft and inopportune goal that has to be moved by the other team.

I am afraid we would have to insist that Vancouver take our first round pick.

Tradition?

Here is your tradition courtesy of Steve Simmons:

NO DRAFT SHMAFT

Claude Giroux was drafted in 2006, nine picks after the Maple Leafs selected Jiri Tlusty. Giroux was part of a terrific run of draft picks made by the Philadelphia Flyers between the years of 2003 and 2007. Why do those years matter here? Because in that five-year span, the Leafs traded away all five first-round picks they had (including the two players they selected, Tlusty and Tuukka Rask) without anything to show for it in between. They also traded away three of their five second-round picks, ending up with one player of semi-consequence, Nikolai Kulemin for the 10 prized draft selections over five years. This is significant now because the players chosen in those years are becoming important or have become important NHL players. In that time, the Flyers added Giroux, one of the five best forwards in the game, along with Mike Richards, Jeff Carter, James VanRiemsdyk and Steve Downie, and that?s just with first round choices. The current Maple Leafs administration, which traded picks away for Phil Kessel, is responsible for what?s happened post 2008. But they are also paying the price for those who came before them.

What irrates me about articles like this, they don't seem to mention that the Leafs were pretty good, the picks were later 1st rounds many of the times.  And they don't seem to mention some players picked were passed upon by more then just the Leafs.  Some picks just don't turn out the way some hope.  I sure didn't miss the Leafs drafting Kris Chucko with their 1st.  I think Brian Leetch was a much better option at the time.  And had the NHL not locked out, the Leafs were ready for business...and perhaps a healthy Cup run.

I always disagreed with the Leetch trade but that is neither here nor there.

I do agree that the typical analysis of "look there was 1 great player taken between picks 20-40" is mistakenly interpreted as "the leafs should have gotten him" vs. "there was only a 5% chance of picking a great player"

On the other hand, the Flyers legitimately should be considered the #1 best drafting team over the last decade, right?  To bad the leafs haven't had their luck/skill.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

No idea why Simmons is even bothering to mention the 2nd round picks.  The Flyers also traded 3 of their 5 2nd rounders in that time frame, ending up with Vladimir Malakhov, Tony Amonte and Adam Oates.  Leafs dealt their 2nd rounders for Glen Wesley, one was involved in the Brian Leetch trade, and the 2007 one was in the Toskala/Bell trade.

Leafs seem to have the only player of any consequence from any of the Leafs/Flyers 2nd rounders in that time (Kulemin), so seems odd that Simmons would bother talking about the 2nd round picks in a comparison of the two teams' drafting records, as they treated 2nd rounders almost the exact same in that time period.

 

[princedpw]

I am quite concerned that a trade for Luongo will turn out somewhat like Philly's signing of Bryz -- a lot of cap space for a long time and scary results -- only Toronto is far less close to competing in all other aspects of their team right now meaning they will waste Luongo's good years, like they are wasting Kessel's, only to be stuck with a horror show soon.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

I am quite concerned that a trade for Luongo will turn out somewhat like Philly's signing of Bryz -- a lot of cap space for a long time and scary results -- only Toronto is far less close to competing in all other aspects of their team right now meaning they will waste Luongo's good years, like they are wasting Kessel's, only to be stuck with a horror show soon.

We could've made the playoffs with even average goaltending this season: http://theleafsnation.com/2012/4/3/with-average-goaltending-the-leafs-would-have-made-the-playoffs

I would guess Luongo would provide above average goaltending for a few years at least.

 

[princedpw]

So, I just think I would have to be highly conservative this year if I was a GM.  I would give offers to Suter and Parise (i doubt they come).  I would hope the new CBA allows a free buyout of Komisarek.  I would make a few trades to shuffle the deck chairs but take on no long term encumbrances.  I would try to set myself up cap-wise for the year after this one.  I would trade our expiring contracts at the deadline for picks and prospects but not before, hoping to get something for a Connolly, Armstrong, etc.

 

[princedpw]

I am quite concerned that a trade for Luongo will turn out somewhat like Philly's signing of Bryz -- a lot of cap space for a long time and scary results -- only Toronto is far less close to competing in all other aspects of their team right now meaning they will waste Luongo's good years, like they are wasting Kessel's, only to be stuck with a horror show soon.

We could've made the playoffs with even average goaltending this season: http://theleafsnation.com/2012/4/3/with-average-goaltending-the-leafs-would-have-made-the-playoffs

I would guess Luongo would provide above average goaltending for a few years at least.

Skimming the article, I believe it is more accurate to say "the leafs would have made the playoffs with a league-average save percentage".  The difference is that the leafs poor defense may make it very hard (harder than "average") to obtain that team-wide save percentage. And if the backup has a .900 save percentage and plays 25 games then the starter has to have, what, a .915 or better?  That might be the equivalent of .925 or better on a good defensive team (I am totally making up numbers -- I hope you see my broad point).

Anyway, your broader point, I agree with:  There is no doubt that Luongo would make the leafs quite a bit better in the short term.  It might be enough better to make the playoffs. I'm not sure.  I just don't think I could handle the long-term risk.  I think it would be unconscionable not to wait until we see the impact of the new CBA.  In any case, even though the UFA market is weak this year, next year it may be at a record high. I'm very tempted to suck it up for another year, grab as many young assets assets as I can through the draft/trading vets and then go after the UFA market in 2014.

 

[Bender]

I am quite concerned that a trade for Luongo will turn out somewhat like Philly's signing of Bryz -- a lot of cap space for a long time and scary results -- only Toronto is far less close to competing in all other aspects of their team right now meaning they will waste Luongo's good years, like they are wasting Kessel's, only to be stuck with a horror show soon.

We could've made the playoffs with even average goaltending this season: http://theleafsnation.com/2012/4/3/with-average-goaltending-the-leafs-would-have-made-the-playoffs

I would guess Luongo would provide above average goaltending for a few years at least.

Skimming the article, I believe it is more accurate to say "the leafs would have made the playoffs with a league-average save percentage".  The difference is that the leafs poor defense may make it very hard (harder than "average") to obtain that team-wide save percentage. And if the backup has a .900 save percentage and plays 25 games then the starter has to have, what, a .915 or better?  That might be the equivalent of .925 or better on a good defensive team (I am totally making up numbers -- I hope you see my broad point).

Anyway, your broader point, I agree with:  There is no doubt that Luongo would make the leafs quite a bit better in the short term.  It might be enough better to make the playoffs. I'm not sure.  I just don't think I could handle the long-term risk.  I think it would be unconscionable not to wait until we see the impact of the new CBA.  In any case, even though the UFA market is weak this year, next year it may be at a record high. I'm very tempted to suck it up for another year, grab as many young assets assets as I can through the draft/trading vets and then go after the UFA market in 2014.

At the same time the relationship was very symbiotic. The defense didn't do any favours for the goaltending and the goaltending didn't do any favours for the defense.

 

[Tigger]

Impatience, in Toronto?

Nah, couldn't be.

Impatience? How long has it been since we made the playoffs? I think it's warranted.

Right of course you do, fire the sophomore goalies, right out of a 1967 shaped cannon!

 

[Tigger]

Which is why I don't think the price for Luongo will be as high as some people may think.  Vancouver is desperate to get rid of him, and he'll have a limited list of teams he'll accept a trade to.

I wouldn't be surprised to see him go for, say, a 2nd round pick.

I honestly don't believe that's the case at all.

That's probably true, but seriously, no comment on the last sentence? Seriously?

A 2nd rounder!!

It is a Toronto tradition to trade a first rounder (and more) for a goalie that lets in the inexplicably soft and inopportune goal that has to be moved by the other team.

I am afraid we would have to insist that Vancouver take our first round pick.

Tradition?

Here is your tradition courtesy of Steve Simmons:

NO DRAFT SHMAFT

Claude Giroux was drafted in 2006, nine picks after the Maple Leafs selected Jiri Tlusty. Giroux was part of a terrific run of draft picks made by the Philadelphia Flyers between the years of 2003 and 2007. Why do those years matter here? Because in that five-year span, the Leafs traded away all five first-round picks they had (including the two players they selected, Tlusty and Tuukka Rask) without anything to show for it in between. They also traded away three of their five second-round picks, ending up with one player of semi-consequence, Nikolai Kulemin for the 10 prized draft selections over five years. This is significant now because the players chosen in those years are becoming important or have become important NHL players. In that time, the Flyers added Giroux, one of the five best forwards in the game, along with Mike Richards, Jeff Carter, James VanRiemsdyk and Steve Downie, and that?s just with first round choices. The current Maple Leafs administration, which traded picks away for Phil Kessel, is responsible for what?s happened post 2008. But they are also paying the price for those who came before them.

Not a lot of goalies there slugaroo.

 

[Tigger]

...this is the same Simmons that's suggesting the Leafs should have signed Stamkos to an offer sheet so Tampa would have a tough time trading for Luongo?

 

[Bates]

I have been looking back through the records and can't find all of the Cups these great Flyers teams have won??  So far I still count zero for the Leafs in recent history compared to zero for the Flyers.  And before someone points out that Flyers are in a better position I will point out again that is it winning or entertainment we are after.  If entertainment is the goal then I have enjoyed the Leafs for most of last few seasons so am happy with entertainment value.

 

[moon111]

I wonder how Cory Schneider would of done being pushed off the edge into the Toronto fishbowl.  Reimer and Gus had the tools to do a 1-2 tandem, but not the mental strength.  Having Luongo takes the weight off Reimer to settle down, feel comfortable handling the pressure, then finally  chasing Luongo out of his net.

 

[Bender]

Which is why I don't think the price for Luongo will be as high as some people may think.  Vancouver is desperate to get rid of him, and he'll have a limited list of teams he'll accept a trade to.

I wouldn't be surprised to see him go for, say, a 2nd round pick.

I honestly don't believe that's the case at all.

That's probably true, but seriously, no comment on the last sentence? Seriously?

A 2nd rounder!!

It is a Toronto tradition to trade a first rounder (and more) for a goalie that lets in the inexplicably soft and inopportune goal that has to be moved by the other team.

I am afraid we would have to insist that Vancouver take our first round pick.

Tradition?

Here is your tradition courtesy of Steve Simmons:

NO DRAFT SHMAFT

Claude Giroux was drafted in 2006, nine picks after the Maple Leafs selected Jiri Tlusty. Giroux was part of a terrific run of draft picks made by the Philadelphia Flyers between the years of 2003 and 2007. Why do those years matter here? Because in that five-year span, the Leafs traded away all five first-round picks they had (including the two players they selected, Tlusty and Tuukka Rask) without anything to show for it in between. They also traded away three of their five second-round picks, ending up with one player of semi-consequence, Nikolai Kulemin for the 10 prized draft selections over five years. This is significant now because the players chosen in those years are becoming important or have become important NHL players. In that time, the Flyers added Giroux, one of the five best forwards in the game, along with Mike Richards, Jeff Carter, James VanRiemsdyk and Steve Downie, and that?s just with first round choices. The current Maple Leafs administration, which traded picks away for Phil Kessel, is responsible for what?s happened post 2008. But they are also paying the price for those who came before them.

What I find funny is the fact that Clark at the time didn't even know who they were picking with their first pick. If everyone knew how good Giroux would become I doubt he would be outside of the top 5 or even top 3 picks.

 

[Mike1]

The consistent trading of draft choices has definitely hurt the franchise. How are you supposed to improve your talent base by trading picks all the time? Its not like the players they traded the picks for are contributing to the roster either.

 

[skrackle]

I have been looking back through the records and can't find all of the Cups these great Flyers teams have won??  So far I still count zero for the Leafs in recent history compared to zero for the Flyers.  And before someone points out that Flyers are in a better position I will point out again that is it winning or entertainment we are after.  If entertainment is the goal then I have enjoyed the Leafs for most of last few seasons so am happy with entertainment value.

If you are finding happiness with a Leafs team that finished 13th in the weak Eastern Conference and 26th overall, don't let me stop you.

The Flyers have bottomed out once in the last decade, and managed to rebound surprisingly well. They are looking strong so far, in this year's playoffs. The Leafs aren't close to their level right now. Hate the Flyers or not, that's just the way it is.